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Acknowledgements This work contributes to the ELUM (Ecosystem Land Use Modelling & Soil Carbon GHG Flux Trial) project, which was commissioned and funded by the Energy Technologies Institute (ETI). We acknowledge the E-OBS data set from the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com) and the data providers in the ECA&D project (http://www.ecad.eu).

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Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank Jonathan Dick, Josie Geris, Jason Lessels, and Claire Tunaley for data collection and Audrey Innes for lab sample preparation. We also thank Christian Birkel for discussions about the model structure and comments on an earlier draft of the paper. Climatic data were provided by Iain Malcolm and Marine Scotland Fisheries at the Freshwater Lab, Pitlochry. Additional precipitation data were provided by the UK Meteorological Office and the British Atmospheric Data Centre (BADC).We thank the European Research Council ERC (project GA 335910 VEWA) for funding the VeWa project.

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© 2015 Authors; published by Portland Press Limited. This work was supported by the Marie Curie Initial Training Network AccliPhot financed by the European Union [grant number PITN-GA-2012-316427 (to A.M. and O.E.)]; and the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft [Cluster of Excellence on Plant Sciences, CEPLAS (EXC 1028) (to O.E.)].

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The research reported in this article is based on the Ph.D. project of Dr. RK, which was funded by the Scottish Informatics and Computer Science Alliance (SICSA). KvD acknowledges support from the EPSRC under the RefNet grant (EP/J019615/1).