Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 2: climate model evaluation and projected impacts from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

Previous assessments of the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality use the "delta method" to create temperature projection time series that are applied to temperature-mortality models to estimate future mortality impacts. The delta method means that climate model bias in the modelled present does not influence the temperature projection time series and impacts. However, the delta method assumes that climate change will result only in a change in the mean temperature but there is evidence that there will also be changes in the variability of temperature with climate change. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of considering changes in temperature variability with climate change in impacts assessments of future heat-related mortality. We investigate future heatrelated mortality impacts in six cities (Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney) by applying temperature projections from the UK Meteorological Office HadCM3 climate model to the temperature-mortality models constructed and validated in Part 1. We investigate the impacts for four cases based on various combinations of mean and variability changes in temperature with climate change. The results demonstrate that higher mortality is attributed to increases in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change rather than with the change in mean temperature alone. This has implications for interpreting existing impacts estimates that have used the delta method. We present a novel method for the creation of temperature projection time series that includes changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change and is not influenced by climate model bias in the modelled present. The method should be useful for future impacts assessments. Few studies consider the implications that the limitations of the climate model may have on the heatrelated mortality impacts. Here, we demonstrate the importance of considering this by conducting an evaluation of the daily and extreme temperatures from HadCM3, which demonstrates that the estimates of future heat-related mortality for Dallas and Lisbon may be overestimated due to positive climate model bias. Likewise, estimates for Boston and London may be underestimated due to negative climate model bias. Finally, we briefly consider uncertainties in the impacts associated with greenhouse gas emissions and acclimatisation. The uncertainties in the mortality impacts due to different emissions scenarios of greenhouse gases in the future varied considerably by location. Allowing for acclimatisation to an extra 2°C in mean temperatures reduced future heat-related mortality by approximately half that of no acclimatisation in each city.

Projected impacts on heat-related mortality from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of changing temperature variability with climate change in assessments of future heat-related mortality. Previous studies have only considered changes in the mean temperature. Here we present estimates of heat-related mortality resulting from climate change for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney. They are based on climate change scenarios for the 2080s (2070-2099) and the temperature-mortality (t-m) models constructed and validated in Gosling et al. (2007). We propose a novel methodology for assessing the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality that considers both changes in the mean and variability of the temperature distribution.

On the energetics of stratified turbulent mixing, irreversible thermodynamics, Boussinesq models and the ocean heat engine controversy

In this paper, the available potential energy (APE) framework of Winters et al. (J. Fluid Mech., vol. 289, 1995, p. 115) is extended to the fully compressible Navier– Stokes equations, with the aims of clarifying (i) the nature of the energy conversions taking place in turbulent thermally stratified fluids; and (ii) the role of surface buoyancy fluxes in the Munk & Wunsch (Deep-Sea Res., vol. 45, 1998, p. 1977) constraint on the mechanical energy sources of stirring required to maintain diapycnal mixing in the oceans. The new framework reveals that the observed turbulent rate of increase in the background gravitational potential energy GPEr , commonly thought to occur at the expense of the diffusively dissipated APE, actually occurs at the expense of internal energy, as in the laminar case. The APE dissipated by molecular diffusion, on the other hand, is found to be converted into internal energy (IE), similar to the viscously dissipated kinetic energy KE. Turbulent stirring, therefore, does not introduce a new APE/GPEr mechanical-to-mechanical energy conversion, but simply enhances the existing IE/GPEr conversion rate, in addition to enhancing the viscous dissipation and the entropy production rates. This, in turn, implies that molecular diffusion contributes to the dissipation of the available mechanical energy ME =APE +KE, along with viscous dissipation. This result has important implications for the interpretation of the concepts of mixing efficiency γmixing and flux Richardson number Rf , for which new physically based definitions are proposed and contrasted with previous definitions. The new framework allows for a more rigorous and general re-derivation from the first principles of Munk & Wunsch (1998, hereafter MW98)’s constraint, also valid for a non-Boussinesq ocean: G(KE) ≈ 1 − ξ Rf ξ Rf Wr, forcing = 1 + (1 − ξ )γmixing ξ γmixing Wr, forcing , where G(KE) is the work rate done by the mechanical forcing, Wr, forcing is the rate of loss of GPEr due to high-latitude cooling and ξ is a nonlinearity parameter such that ξ =1 for a linear equation of state (as considered by MW98), but ξ <1 otherwise. The most important result is that G(APE), the work rate done by the surface buoyancy fluxes, must be numerically as large as Wr, forcing and, therefore, as important as the mechanical forcing in stirring and driving the oceans. As a consequence, the overall mixing efficiency of the oceans is likely to be larger than the value γmixing =0.2 presently used, thereby possibly eliminating the apparent shortfall in mechanical stirring energy that results from using γmixing =0.2 in the above formula.

A Bayesian approach to estimate sensible and latent heat over vegetated land surface

Sensible and latent heat fluxes are often calculated from bulk transfer equations combined with the energy balance. For spatial estimates of these fluxes, a combination of remotely sensed and standard meteorological data from weather stations is used. The success of this approach depends on the accuracy of the input data and on the accuracy of two variables in particular: aerodynamic and surface conductance. This paper presents a Bayesian approach to improve estimates of sensible and latent heat fluxes by using a priori estimates of aerodynamic and surface conductance alongside remote measurements of surface temperature. The method is validated for time series of half-hourly measurements in a fully grown maize field, a vineyard and a forest. It is shown that the Bayesian approach yields more accurate estimates of sensible and latent heat flux than traditional methods.

U.K. HiGEM: The New U.K. High-Resolution Global Environment Model—Model Description and Basic Evaluation

This article describes the development and evaluation of the U.K.’s new High-Resolution Global Environmental Model (HiGEM), which is based on the latest climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model, known as the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 1 (HadGEM1). In HiGEM, the horizontal resolution has been increased to 0.83° latitude × 1.25° longitude for the atmosphere, and 1/3° × 1/3° globally for the ocean. Multidecadal integrations of HiGEM, and the lower-resolution HadGEM, are used to explore the impact of resolution on the fidelity of climate simulations. Generally, SST errors are reduced in HiGEM. Cold SST errors associated with the path of the North Atlantic drift improve, and warm SST errors are reduced in upwelling stratocumulus regions where the simulation of low-level cloud is better at higher resolution. The ocean model in HiGEM allows ocean eddies to be partially resolved, which dramatically improves the representation of sea surface height variability. In the Southern Ocean, most of the heat transports in HiGEM is achieved by resolved eddy motions, which replaces the parameterized eddy heat transport in the lower-resolution model. HiGEM is also able to more realistically simulate small-scale features in the wind stress curl around islands and oceanic SST fronts, which may have implications for oceanic upwelling and ocean biology. Higher resolution in both the atmosphere and the ocean allows coupling to occur on small spatial scales. In particular, the small-scale interaction recently seen in satellite imagery between the atmosphere and tropical instability waves in the tropical Pacific Ocean is realistically captured in HiGEM. Tropical instability waves play a role in improving the simulation of the mean state of the tropical Pacific, which has important implications for climate variability. In particular, all aspects of the simulation of ENSO (spatial patterns, the time scales at which ENSO occurs, and global teleconnections) are much improved in HiGEM.

Pyrohydrolysis-IRMS determination of silicate chlorine stable isotope compositions. Application to oceanic crust and meteorite samples

This contribution describes the optimization of chlorine extraction from silicate samples by pyrohydrolysis prior to the precise determination of Cl stable-isotope compositions (637 Cl) by gas source, dual inlet Isotope Ratio Mass Spectrometry (IRMS) on CH(3)Clg. The complete method was checked on three international reference materials for Cl-content and two laboratory glass standards. Whole procedure blanks are lower than 0. 5 mu mol, corresponding to less than 10 wt.% of most of the sample chloride analysed. In the absence of international chlorine isotope rock, we report here Cl extracted compared to accepted Cl contents and reproducibilities on Cl and delta Cl-37 measurements for the standard rocks. After extraction, the Cl contents of the three international references compared within error with the accepted values (mean yield = 94 +/-10%) with reproducibilities better than 12% (10). The laboratory glass standards - andesite SO100DS92 and phonolite S9(2) - were used specifically to test the effect of chloride amount on the measurements. They gave Cl extraction yields of 100 +/-6% (1 sigma-; n = 15) and 105 +/- 8% (1 sigma-; n = 7), respectively, with delta Cl-37 values of -0.51 0.14%o and -0.39 0.17%o (1g). In summary, for silicate samples with Cl contents between 39 and 9042 ppm, the Pyrohydrolysis/HPLC method leads to overall CI extraction yields of 100 8%, reproducibilities on Cl contents of 7% and on delta Cl-37 measurements of 0.12%o (all 1 sigma). The method was further applied to ten silicate rocks of various mineralogy and chemistry (meteorite, fresh MORB glasses, altered basalts and setpentinized peridotites) chosen for their large range of Cl contents (70-2156 ppm) and their geological significance. delta Cl-37 values range between -2.33 and -0.50%o. These strictly negative values contrast with the large range and mainly positive values previously reported for comparable silicate samples and shown here to be affected by analytical problems. Thus we propose a preliminary, revised terrestrial CI cycle, mainly dominated by negative and zero delta Cl-37 values. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Moving towards a more mechanistic approach in the determination of soil heat flux from remote measurements - I. A universal approach to calculate thermal inertia

In this paper we pledge that physically based equations should be combined with remote sensing techniques to enable a more theoretically rigorous estimation of area-average soil heat flux, G. A standard physical equation (i.e. the analytical or exact method) for the estimation of G, in combination with a simple, but theoretically derived, equation for soil thermal inertia (F), provides the basis for a more transparent and readily interpretable method for the estimation of G; without the requirement for in situ instrumentation. Moreover, such an approach ensures a more universally applicable method than those derived from purely empirical studies (employing vegetation indices and albedo, for example). Hence, a new equation for the estimation of Gamma(for homogeneous soils) is discussed in this paper which only requires knowledge of soil type, which is readily obtainable from extant soil databases and surveys, in combination with a coarse estimate of moisture status. This approach can be used to obtain area-averaged estimates of Gamma(and thus G, as explained in paper II) which is important for large-scale energy balance studies that employ aircraft or satellite data. Furthermore, this method also relaxes the instrumental demand for studies at the plot and field scale (no requirement for in situ soil temperature sensors, soil heat flux plates and/or thermal conductivity sensors). In addition, this equation can be incorporated in soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer models that use the force restore method to update surface temperatures (such as the well-known ISBA model), to replace the thermal inertia coefficient.

Moving towards a more mechanistic approach in the determination of soil heat flux from remote measurements - II. Diurnal shape of soil heat flux

For vegetated surfaces, calculation of soil heat flux, G, with the Exact or Analytical method requires a harmonic analysis of below-canopy soil surface temperature, to obtain the shape of the diurnal course of G. When determining G with remote sensing methods, only composite (vegetation plus soil) radiometric brightness temperature is available. This paper presents a simple equation that relates the sum of the harmonic terms derived for the composite radiometric surface temperature to that of belowcanopy soil surface temperature. The thermal inertia, Gamma(,) for which a simple equation has been presented in a companion paper, paper I, is used to set the magnitude of G. To assess the success of the method proposed in this paper for the estimation of the diurnal shape of G, a comparison was made between 'remote' and in situ calculated values from described field sites. This indicated that the proposed method was suitable for the estimation of the shape of G for a variety of vegetation types and densities. The approach outlined in paper I, to obtain Gamma, was then combined with the estimated harmonic terms to predict estimates of G, which were compared to values predicted by empirical remote methods found in the literature. This indicated that the method proposed in the combination of papers I and II gave reliable estimates of G, which, in comparison to the other methods, resulted in more realistic predictions for vegetated surfaces. This set of equations can also be used for bare and sparsely vegetated soils, making it a universally applicable method. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.