Contribution of the North Atlantic subtropical high to regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating southeastern United States summer precipitation

© 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.This study assesses the skill of advanced regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating southeastern United States (SE US) summer precipitation and explores the physical mechanisms responsible for the simulation skill at a process level. Analysis of the RCM output for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program indicates that the RCM simulations of summer precipitation show the largest biases and a remarkable spread over the SE US compared to other regions in the contiguous US. The causes of such a spread are investigated by performing simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a next-generation RCM developed by the US National Center for Atmospheric Research. The results show that the simulated biases in SE US summer precipitation are due mainly to the misrepresentation of the modeled North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) western ridge. In the WRF simulations, the NASH western ridge shifts 7° northwestward when compared to that in the reanalysis ensemble, leading to a dry bias in the simulated summer precipitation according to the relationship between the NASH western ridge and summer precipitation over the southeast. Experiments utilizing the four dimensional data assimilation technique further suggest that the improved representation of the circulation patterns (i.e., wind fields) associated with the NASH western ridge substantially reduces the bias in the simulated SE US summer precipitation. Our analysis of circulation dynamics indicates that the NASH western ridge in the WRF simulations is significantly influenced by the simulated planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes over the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, a decrease (increase) in the simulated PBL height tends to stabilize (destabilize) the lower troposphere over the Gulf of Mexico, and thus inhibits (favors) the onset and/or development of convection. Such changes in tropical convection induce a tropical–extratropical teleconnection pattern, which modulates the circulation along the NASH western ridge in the WRF simulations and contributes to the modeled precipitation biases over the SE US. In conclusion, our study demonstrates that the NASH western ridge is an important factor responsible for the RCM skill in simulating SE US summer precipitation. Furthermore, the improvements in the PBL parameterizations for the Gulf of Mexico might help advance RCM skill in representing the NASH western ridge circulation and summer precipitation over the SE US.

Impact of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific.

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most devastating weather systems affecting the United States and Central America (USCA). Here we show that the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) strongly modulates TC activity over the North Atlantic (NA) and eastern North Pacific (eNP). During positive IPO phases, less (more) TCs were observed over NA (eNP), likely due to the presence of stronger (weaker) vertical wind shear and the resulting changes in genesis potential. Furthermore, TCs over NA tend to keep their tracks more eastward and recurve at lower latitudes during positive IPO phases. Such variations are largely determined by changes in steering flow instead of changes in genesis locations. Over the eNP, smaller track variations are observed at different IPO phases with stable, westward movements of TCs prevailing. These findings have substantial implications for understanding decadal to inter-decadal fluctuations in the risk of TC landfalls along USCA coasts.

Dramatic variability of the carbonate system at a temperate coastal ocean site (Beaufort, North Carolina, USA) is regulated by physical and biogeochemical processes on multiple timescales.

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) from anthropogenic sources is acidifying marine environments resulting in potentially dramatic consequences for the physical, chemical and biological functioning of these ecosystems. If current trends continue, mean ocean pH is expected to decrease by ~0.2 units over the next ~50 years. Yet, there is also substantial temporal variability in pH and other carbon system parameters in the ocean resulting in regions that already experience change that exceeds long-term projected trends in pH. This points to short-term dynamics as an important layer of complexity on top of long-term trends. Thus, in order to predict future climate change impacts, there is a critical need to characterize the natural range and dynamics of the marine carbonate system and the mechanisms responsible for observed variability. Here, we present pH and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) at time intervals spanning 1 hour to >1 year from a dynamic, coastal, temperate marine system (Beaufort Inlet, Beaufort NC USA) to characterize the carbonate system at multiple time scales. Daily and seasonal variation of the carbonate system is largely driven by temperature, alkalinity and the balance between primary production and respiration, but high frequency change (hours to days) is further influenced by water mass movement (e.g. tides) and stochastic events (e.g. storms). Both annual (~0.3 units) and diurnal (~0.1 units) variability in coastal ocean acidity are similar in magnitude to 50 year projections of ocean acidity associated with increasing atmospheric CO2. The environmental variables driving these changes highlight the importance of characterizing the complete carbonate system rather than just pH. Short-term dynamics of ocean carbon parameters may already exert significant pressure on some coastal marine ecosystems with implications for ecology, biogeochemistry and evolution and this shorter term variability layers additive effects and complexity, including extreme values, on top of long-term trends in ocean acidification.

Mental Health and Substance Use Among Patients in a North Carolina HIV Clinic.

BACKGROUND: The HIV/AIDS epidemic is a significant public health concern in North Carolina, and previous research has pointed to elevated mental health distress and substance use among HIV-infected populations, which may impact patients' adherence to medications. The aims of this study were to describe the prevalence of mental health and substance use issues among patients of a North Carolina HIV clinic, to examine differences by demographic characteristics, and to examine factors associated with suboptimal adherence to HIV medications. METHODS: This study was a secondary analysis of clinical data routinely collected through a health behavior questionnaire at a large HIV clinic in North Carolina. We analyzed data collected from February 2011 to August 2012. RESULTS: The sample included 1,398 patients. Overall, 12.2% of patients endorsed current symptomology indicative of moderate or severe levels of depression, and 38.6% reported receiving a psychiatric diagnosis at some point in their life. Additionally, 19.1% had indications of current problematic drinking, and 8.2% reported problematic drug use. Nearly one-quarter (22.1%) reported suboptimal adherence to HIV medications. Factors associated with poor adherence included racial/ethnic minority, age less than 35 years, and indications of moderate or severe depression. LIMITATIONS: The questionnaire was not completed systematically in the clinic, which may limit generalizability, and self-reported measures may have introduced social desirability bias. CONCLUSION: Patients were willing to disclose mental health distress, substance use, and suboptimal medication adherence to providers, which highlights the importance of routinely assessing these behaviors during clinic visits. Our findings suggest that treating depression may be an effective strategy to improve adherence to HIV medications.

Introduction: The apparel industry and North American economic integration

The economic and social consequences of international trade agreements have become a major area of inquiry in development studies in recent years. As evidenced by the energetic protests surrounding the Seattle meeting of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in December 1999 and the controversy about China's admission to the WTO, such agreements have also become a focus of political conflict in both the developed and developing countries. At issue are questions of job gains and job losses in different regions, prices paid by consumers, acceptable standards for wages and working conditions in transnational manufacturing industries, and the quality of the environment. All these concerns have arisen with regard to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and can be addressed through an examination of changes in the dynamics of the apparel industry in the post-NAFTA period.1 In this book, we examine the evolution of the apparel industry in North America in order to address some of these questions as they pertain to North America, with an eye toward the broader implications of our findings. We also consider the countries of the Caribbean Basin and Central America, whose textile and apparel goods are now allowed to enter the U.S. market on the same basis as those from Canada and Mexico (Odessey 2000). © 2009 by Temple University Press. All rights reserved.

NAFTA and uneven development in the North American apparel industry

The various contributions to this book have documented how NAFTA-inspired firm strategies are changing the geography of apparel production in North America. The authors show in myriad ways how companies at different positions along the apparel commodity chain are responding to the new institutional and regulatory environment that NAFTA creates. By making it easier for U.S. companies to take advantage of Mexico as a nearby low-cost site for export-oriented apparel production, NAFTA is deepening the regional division of labor within North America, and this process has consequences for firms and workers in each of the signatory countries. In the introduction to this book we alluded to the obvious implications of shifting investment and trade patterns in the North American apparel industry for employment in the different countries. In this concluding chapter we focus on Mexico in the NAFTA era, specifically the extent to which Mexico's role in the North American economy facilitates or inhibits its economic development. W e begin with a discussion of the contemporary debate about Mexico's development, which turns on the question of how to assess the implications of Mexico's rapid and pro-found process of economic reform. Second, we focus on the textile and apparel industries as sectors that have been significantly affected by changes in regulatory environments at both the global and regional levels. Third, we examine the evidence regarding Mexico's NAFTA-era export dynamism, and in particular we emphasize the importance of interfirm networks, both for making sense of Mexico's meteoric rise among apparel exporters and for evaluating the implications of this dynamism for development. Fourth, we turn to a consideration of the national political-economic environment that shapes developmental outcomes for all Mexicans. Although regional disparities within Mexico are profound, aspects of government policy, such as management of the national currency, and characteristics of the institutional environment, such as industrial relations, have nationwide effects, and critics of NAFTA charge that these factors are contributing to a process of economic and social polarization that is ever more evident (Morales 1999; Dussel Peters 2000). Finally, we suggest that the mixed consequences of Mexico's NAFTA-era growth can be taken as emblematic of the contradictions that the process of globalization poses for economic and social development. The anti-sweatshop campaign in North America is one example of transnational or crossborder movements that are emerging to address the negative consequences of this process. In bringing attention to the problem of sweatshop production in North America, activists are developing strategies that rely on a network logic that is not dissimilar to the approaches reflected in the various chapters of this book. © 2009 by Temple University Press. All rights reserved.

Identifying Barriers and Practical Solutions to Conducting Site-Based Research in North America: Exploring Acute Heart Failure Trials As a Case Study.

Although the prognosis of ambulatory heart failure (HF) has improved dramatically there have been few advances in the management of acute HF (AHF). Despite regional differences in patient characteristics, background therapy, and event rates, AHF clinical trial enrollment has transitioned from North America and Western Europe to Eastern Europe, South America, and Asia-Pacific where regulatory burden and cost of conducting research may be less prohibitive. It is unclear if the results of clinical trials conducted outside of North America are generalizable to US patient populations. This article uses AHF as a paradigm and identifies barriers and practical solutions to successfully conducting site-based research in North America.

Evaluating Stakeholder Engagement in North Carolina Sea Grant’s Strategic Planning Process

In order to develop a strategic plan that will guide their priorities and resource allocation for 2018-2021, North Carolina Sea Grant has implemented a multi-stage process designed to increase stakeholder engagement and to better assess and serve the coastal priorities of North Carolinians. This project explores strengths and potential areas for improvement within NC Sea Grant’s planning process with a specific focus on maximizing stakeholder engagement. By interviewing staff, observing focus groups, and creating a survey instrument for public distribution, we developed a set of recommendations highlighting the ways that NC Sea Grant can better facilitate inclusion of stakeholder, public, and staff input in its strategic planning process, such as holding some stakeholder events outside of typical business hours and discussing ways to incorporate diversity into the strategic plan.

[Book Review] A database of North American tertiary mammals

Review of: Janis, C.M., Scott, K.M., & Jacobs, L.L. (eds.) 1998. Evolution of Tertiary Mammals of North America Volume 1: Terrestrial Carnivores, Ungulates, and Ungulatelike Mammals, i-x, 1491. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. £165

A preliminary investigation of the evacuation of the WTC North Tower using computer simulation

This paper concerns a preliminary numerical simulation study of the evacuation of the World Trade Centre North Tower on 11 September 2001 using the buildingEXODUS evacuation simulation software. The analysis makes use of response time data derived from a study of survivor accounts appearing in the public domain. While exact geometric details of the building were not available for this study, the building geometry was approximated from descriptions available in the public domain. The study attempts to reproduce the events of 11 September 2001 and pursue several ‘what if’ questions concerning the evacuation. In particular, the study explores the likely outcome had a single staircase survived in tact from top to bottom.

Investigating the impact of occupant response time on computer simulations of the WTC North Tower evacuation

This work explores the impact of response time distributions on high-rise building evacuation. The analysis utilises response times extracted from printed accounts and interviews of evacuees from the WTC North Tower evacuation of 11 September 2001. Evacuation simulations produced using these “real” response time distributions are compared with simulations produced using instant and engineering response time distributions. Results suggest that while typical engineering approximations to the response time distribution may produce reasonable evacuation times for up to 90% of the building population, using this approach may underestimate total evacuation times by as much as 61%. These observations are applicable to situations involving large high-rise buildings in which travel times are generally expected to be greater than response times

Approximating the evacuation of the World Trade Center North Tower using computer simulation

This article concerns an investigation of the full scale evacuation of a building with a configuration similar to that of the World Trade Center (WTC) North Tower using computer simulation. A range of evacuation scenarios is explored in order to better understand the evacuation of the WTC on 11 September 2001. The analysis makes use of response time data derived from a study of published WTC survivor accounts. Geometric details of the building are obtained from architects' plans while the total building population used in the scenarios is based on estimates produced by the National Institute of Standards and Technology formal investigation into the evacuation. This paper attempts to approximate the events of 11 September 2001 and pursue several `what if' questions concerning the evacuation. In particular, the study explores the likely outcome had a single staircase survived intact from top to bottom. More generally, this paper explores issues associated with the practical limits of building size that can be expected to be efficiently evacuated using stairs alone.

Observations and analysis of a 63-year-old reinforced concrete promenade railing exposed to the North Sea

Despite being exposed to the harsh sea-spray environment of the North Sea at Arbroath, Scotland, for over 63 years, many of the reinforced concrete precast beam elements of the 1.5 km long promenade railing are still in very good condition and show little evidence of reinforcement corrosion. In contrast, railing replacements constructed in about 1968 and in 1993 are almost all badly cracked as a result of extensive corrosion of the longitudinal reinforcement. This is despite the newer concrete appearing to be of better quality than the 1943 concrete. Statistics for maximum crack width for each of the three populations, based on measurements made in 2004 and in 2006, are presented. In situ and laboratory measurements show that the 1943 concrete appears to have high permeability but it also shows high electrical resistivity. Chloride penetration measurements show the 1943 and 1993 concretes to have similar chloride profiles and similar chloride concentrations at the reinforcement bars. This is inconsistent with the 1943 beams showing much less reinforcement corrosion than their later replacements and casts doubt on the conventional practice for durability design focusing on reducing concrete permeability through denser concretes or greater cover.