Real-Time Bayesian Analysis of Ground Motion Envelopes for Earthquake Early Warning

Current earthquake early warning systems usually make magnitude and location predictions and send out a warning to the users based on those predictions. We describe an algorithm that assesses the validity of the predictions in real-time. Our algorithm monitors the envelopes of horizontal and vertical acceleration, velocity, and displacement. We compare the observed envelopes with the ones predicted by Cua & Heaton's envelope ground motion prediction equations (Cua 2005). We define a "test function" as the logarithm of the ratio between observed and predicted envelopes at every second in real-time. Once the envelopes deviate beyond an acceptable threshold, we declare a misfit. Kurtosis and skewness of a time evolving test function are used to rapidly identify a misfit. Real-time kurtosis and skewness calculations are also inputs to both probabilistic (Logistic Regression and Bayesian Logistic Regression) and nonprobabilistic (Least Squares and Linear Discriminant Analysis) models that ultimately decide if there is an unacceptable level of misfit. This algorithm is designed to work at a wide range of amplitude scales. When tested with synthetic and actual seismic signals from past events, it works for both small and large events.

4th European Conference on Energy Efficiency and Sustainability in Architecture and Planning : Donostia-San Sebastián, 1-3 Julio 2013

XXXII Cursos de Verano de la UPV/EHU

5th European Conference on Energy Efficiency and Sustainability in Architecture and Planning : Donostia-San Sebastián, 7-9 Julio 2014

XXXIII Cursos de Verano de la UPV/EHU

Motion simulation of annular polishing

Based on the Coulomb friction model, the frictional motion model of workpiece relating to the polishing pad was presented in annular polishing. By the dynamic analysis software, the model was simulated and analysed. The conclusions from the results were that the workpiece did not rotate steadily. When the angular velocity of ring and the direction were the same as that of the polishing pad, the angular velocity of workpiece hoicked at the beginning and at the later stage were the same as that of the polishing pad before contacting with the ring. The angular velocity of workpiece vibrated at the moment of contacting with the ring. After that the angular velocity of workpiece increased gradually and fluctuated at a given value, while the angular velocity of ring decreased gradually and also fluctuated at a given value. Since the contact between the workpiece and the ring was linear, their linear velocities and directions should be the same. But the angular velocity of workpiece was larger than that of the polishing pad on the condition that the radius of the workpiece was less than that of the ring. This did not agree with the pure translation principle and the workpiece surface could not be flat, either. Consequently, it needed to be controlled with the angular velocity of ring and the radii of the ring and the workpiece, besides friction to make the angular velocity of workpiece equal to that of the polishing pad for obtaining fine surface flatness of the workpiece. Copyright © 2007 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.}