Use of Statistical Methods in Demand Planning

In a very volatile industry of high technology it is of utmost importance to accurately forecast customers’ demand. However, statistical forecasting of sales, especially in heavily competitive electronics product business, has always been a challenging task due to very high variation in demand and very short product life cycles of products. The purpose of this thesis is to validate if statistical methods can be applied to forecasting sales of short life cycle electronics products and provide a feasible framework for implementing statistical forecasting in the environment of the case company. Two different approaches have been developed for forecasting on short and medium term and long term horizons. Both models are based on decomposition models, but differ in interpretation of the model residuals. For long term horizons residuals are assumed to represent white noise, whereas for short and medium term forecasting horizon residuals are modeled using statistical forecasting methods. Implementation of both approaches is performed in Matlab. Modeling results have shown that different markets exhibit different demand patterns and therefore different analytical approaches are appropriate for modeling demand in these markets. Moreover, the outcomes of modeling imply that statistical forecasting can not be handled separately from judgmental forecasting, but should be perceived only as a basis for judgmental forecasting activities. Based on modeling results recommendations for further deployment of statistical methods in sales forecasting of the case company are developed.

A role for homologous recombination proteins in cell cycle regulation.

Eukaryotic cells respond to DNA breaks, especially double-stranded breaks (DSBs), by activating the DNA damage response (DDR), which encompasses DNA repair and cell cycle checkpoint signaling. The DNA damage signal is transmitted to the checkpoint machinery by a network of specialized DNA damage-recognizing and signal-transducing molecules. However, recent evidence suggests that DNA repair proteins themselves may also directly contribute to the checkpoint control. Here, we investigated the role of homologous recombination (HR) proteins in normal cell cycle regulation in the absence of exogenous DNA damage. For this purpose, we used Chinese Hamster Ovary (CHO) cells expressing the Fluorescent ubiquitination-based cell cycle indicators (Fucci). Systematic siRNA-mediated knockdown of HR genes in these cells demonstrated that the lack of several of these factors alters cell cycle distribution, albeit differentially. The knock-down of MDC1, Rad51 and Brca1 caused the cells to arrest in the G2 phase, suggesting that they may be required for the G2/M transition. In contrast, inhibition of the other HR factors, including several Rad51 paralogs and Rad50, led to the arrest in the G1/G0 phase. Moreover, reduced expression of Rad51B, Rad51C, CtIP and Rad50 induced entry into a quiescent G0-like phase. In conclusion, the lack of many HR factors may lead to cell cycle checkpoint activation, even in the absence of exogenous DNA damage, indicating that these proteins may play an essential role both in DNA repair and checkpoint signaling.

Life cycle costs in heating, ventilation and air-conditioning systems with drive

Energy consumption and energy efficiency have become an issue. Energy consumption is rising all over the world and because of that, and the climate change, energy is becoming more and more expensive. Buildings are major consumers of energy, and inside the buildings the major consumers are heating, ventilation and air-conditioning systems. They usually run at constant speed without efficient control. In most cases HVAC equipment is also oversized. Traditionally heating, ventilation and air-conditioning systems have been sized to meet conditions that rarely occur. The theory part in this thesis represents the basics of life cycle costs and calculations for the whole life cycle of a system. It also represents HVAC systems, equipment, systems controls and ways to save energy in these systems. The empirical part of this thesis represents life cycle cost calculations for HVAC systems. With these calculations it is possible to compute costs for the whole life cycle for the wanted variables. Life cycle costs make it possible to compare which variable causes most of the costs from the whole life point of view. Life cycle costs were studied through two real life cases which were focused on two different kinds of HVAC systems. In both of these cases the renovations were already made, so that the comparison between the old and the new, now existing system would be easier. The study indicates that energy can be saved in HVAC systems by using variable speed drive as a control method.

Discrete distributions when modeling the disability severity score of motor victims

Many European states apply score systems to evaluate the disability severity of non-fatal motor victims under the law of third-party liability. The score is a non-negative integer with an upper bound at 100 that increases with severity. It may be automatically converted into financial terms and thus also reflects the compensation cost for disability. In this paper, discrete regression models are applied to analyze the factors that influence the disability severity score of victims. Standard and zero-altered regression models are compared from two perspectives: an interpretation of the data generating process and the level of statistical fit. The results have implications for traffic safety policy decisions aimed at reducing accident severity. An application using data from Spain is provided.

Pedaling rate is an important determinant of human oxygen uptake during exercise on the cycle ergometer.

Estimation of human oxygen uptake (V˙o2) during exercise is often used as an alternative when its direct measurement is not feasible. The American College of Sports Medicine (ACSM) suggests estimating human V˙o2 during exercise on a cycle ergometer through an equation that considers individual's body mass and external work rate, but not pedaling rate (PR). We hypothesized that including PR in the ACSM equation would improve its V˙o2 prediction accuracy. Ten healthy male participants' (age 19-48 years) were recruited and their steady-state V˙o2 was recorded on a cycle ergometer for 16 combinations of external work rates (0, 50, 100, and 150 W) and PR (50, 70, 90, and 110 revolutions per minute). V˙o2 was calculated by means of a new equation, and by the ACSM equation for comparison. Kinematic data were collected by means of an infrared 3-D motion analysis system in order to explore the mechanical determinants of V˙o2. Including PR in the ACSM equation improved the accuracy for prediction of sub-maximal V˙o2 during exercise (mean bias 1.9 vs. 3.3 mL O2 kg(-1) min(-1)) but it did not affect the accuracy for prediction of maximal V˙o2 (P > 0.05). Confirming the validity of this new equation, the results were replicated for data reported in the literature in 51 participants. We conclude that PR is an important determinant of human V˙o2 during cycling exercise, and it should be considered when predicting oxygen consumption.

'A pilot study to investigate external urethral sphincter electromyographic activity and the influence of hormonal changes in the menstrual cycle'

But de l'étude Un enregistrement spécifique EMG du sphincter strié urétral avec décharges répétitives et complexes ainsi que salves de décélération a été décrit comme pathognomonique du syndrome de Fowler, un trouble de la relaxation du sphincter strié urétral chez la femme jeune responsable d'une retention urinaire. Nous avons souhaité étudier la présence de cet enregistrement EMG spécifique chez la femme asymptomatique, ceci à différents moments du cycle menstruel. Matériel et Méthode Nous avons recruté des femmes volontaires saines âgées entre 20 et 40 ans, ayant un cycle hormonal régulier, et ne présentant aucun symptôme urinaire. Les critères d'exclusion étaient la presence d'une dysfonction mictionnelle, d'une infection urinaire, la grossesse, la prise d'une thérapie hormonale ou d'hormone contraceptive, une obésité et des antécédants d'intervention pelvienne. Nous avons procédé à deux enregistrements EMG du sphincter strié urétral des participantes éligibles, utilisant une aiguille concentrique, ceci dans la première phase du cycle (phase folliculaire) et dans la dernière phase du cycle (phase lutéale). Les taux sériques de progestérone et d'oestrogène étaient mesurés à chaque enregistrement. Résultats 15 participantes ont complété l'étude. L' enregistrement EMG du sphincter a été positif avec présence de décharges répétitives et de salves de décélération lors d'une ou des deux phases du cycle menstruel chez 8 participantes (53%). Trois participantes présentaient cet enregistrement spécifique lors des deux phases du cycle et cinq participantes présentaient cet enregistrement spécifique lors de la phase lutéale uniquement. Aucune femme ne présentait cet enregistrement spécifique en début de cycle uniquement. Il n'y avait pas de relation avec l'âge, la parité ou les taux hormonaux. Conclusions L'enregistrement EMG spécifique du sphincter strié urétral, avec décharges répétitives et salves de décélération, se retrouve chez une proportion élevée de femmes asymptomatiques. Il a été montré que ce tracé change lors du cycle menstruel, en étant retrouvé plus fréquemment dans la dernière phase du cycle. L'importance de cet enregistrement EMG dans l'étiologie de la retention urinaire de la femme jeune reste à éclaircir. Nous devons considérer que sa présence ne pose pas automatiquement un diagnostic de syndrome de Fowler chez la femme en rétention urinaire.

Cell cycle control in Alphaproteobacteria.

NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">Alphaproteobacteria include many medically and environmentally important organisms. Despite the diversity of their niches and lifestyles, from free-living to host-associated, they usually rely on very similar mechanisms to control their cell cycles. Studies on Caulobacter crescentus still lay the foundation for understanding the molecular details of pathways regulating DNA replication and cell division and coordinating these two processes with other events of the cell cycle. This review highlights recent discoveries on the regulation and the mode of action of conserved global regulators and small molecules like c-di-GMP and (p)ppGpp, which play key roles in cell cycle control. It also describes several newly identified mechanisms that modulate cell cycle progression in response to stresses or environmental conditions.

Managing induced tourism image : relational patterns and the life cycle

The tourism image is an element that conditions the competitiveness of tourism destinations by making them stand out in the minds of tourists. In this context, marketers of tourism destinations endeavour to create an induced image based on their identity and distinctive characteristics.A number of authors have also recognized the complexity of tourism destinations and the need for coordination and cooperation among all tourism agents, in order to supply a satisfactory tourist product and be competitive in the tourism market. Therefore, tourism agents at the destination need to develop and integrate strategic marketing plans.The aim of this paper is to determine how cities of similar cultures use their resources with the purpose of developing a distinctive induced tourism image to attract tourists and the extent of coordination and cooperation among the various tourism agents of a destination in the process of induced image creation.In order to accomplish these aims, a comparative analysis of the induced image of two cultural cities is presented, Girona (Spain) and Perpignan (France). The induced image is assessed through the content analysis of promotional brochures and the extent of cooperation with in-depth interviews of the main tourism agents of these destinations.Despite the similarities of both cities in terms of tourism resources, results show the use of different attributes to configure the induced image of each destination, as well as a different configuration of the network of tourism agents that participate in the process of induced image creation

The internal wave field in Sau reservoir : Observation and modeling of a third vertical mode

Water withdrawal from Mediterranean reservoirs in summer is usually very high. Because of this, stratification is often continuous and far from the typical two-layered structure, favoring the excitation of higher vertical modes. The analysis of wind, temperature, and current data from Sau reservoir (Spain) shows that the third vertical mode of the internal seiche (baroclinic mode) dominated the internal wave field at the beginning of September 2003. We used a continuous stratification two-dimensional model to calculate the period and velocity distribution of the various modes of the internal seiche, and we calculated that the period of the third vertical mode is ;24 h, which coincides with the period of the dominating winds. As a result of the resonance between the third mode and the wind, the other oscillation modes were not excited during this period

Fischer-Tropsch Slurry Bubble Column Reactor Modeling

The literature part of the work reviews overall Fischer-Tropsch process, Fischer-Tropsch reactors and catalysts. Fundamentals of Fischer-Tropsch modeling are also presented. The emphasis is on the reactor unit. Comparison of the reactors and the catalysts is carried out to choose the suitable reactor setup for the modeling work. The effects of the operation conditions are also investigated. Slurry bubble column reactor model operating with cobalt catalyst is developed by taking into account the mass transfer of the reacting components (CO and H2) and the consumption of the reactants in the liquid phase. The effect of hydrostatic pressure and the change in total mole flow rate in gas phase are taken into account in calculation of the solubilities. The hydrodynamics, reaction kinetics and product composition are determined according to literature. The cooling system and furthermore the required heat transfer area and number of cooling tubes are also determined. The model is implemented in Matlab software. Commercial scale reactor setup is modeled and the behavior of the model is investigated. The possible inaccuraries are evaluated and the suggestions for the future work are presented. The model is also integrated to Aspen Plus process simulation software, which enables the usage of the model in more extensive Fischer-Tropsch process simulations. Commercial scale reactor of diameter of 7 m and height of 30 m was modeled. The capacity of the reactor was calculated to be about 9 800 barrels/day with CO conversion of 75 %. The behavior of the model was realistic and results were in the right range. The highest uncertainty to model was estimated to be caused by the determination of the kinetic rate.