Development of Hierarchical Clustering Techniques for Gridded Data from Mixed Data Sequences

Knowledge discovery in databases is the non-trivial process of identifying valid, novel potentially useful and ultimately understandable patterns from data. The term Data mining refers to the process which does the exploratory analysis on the data and builds some model on the data. To infer patterns from data, data mining involves different approaches like association rule mining, classification techniques or clustering techniques. Among the many data mining techniques, clustering plays a major role, since it helps to group the related data for assessing properties and drawing conclusions. Most of the clustering algorithms act on a dataset with uniform format, since the similarity or dissimilarity between the data points is a significant factor in finding out the clusters. If a dataset consists of mixed attributes, i.e. a combination of numerical and categorical variables, a preferred approach is to convert different formats into a uniform format. The research study explores the various techniques to convert the mixed data sets to a numerical equivalent, so as to make it equipped for applying the statistical and similar algorithms. The results of clustering mixed category data after conversion to numeric data type have been demonstrated using a crime data set. The thesis also proposes an extension to the well known algorithm for handling mixed data types, to deal with data sets having only categorical data. The proposed conversion has been validated on a data set corresponding to breast cancer. Moreover, another issue with the clustering process is the visualization of output. Different geometric techniques like scatter plot, or projection plots are available, but none of the techniques display the result projecting the whole database but rather demonstrate attribute-pair wise analysis

THE PROBLEMS OF TRANSLATION OF POETRY FROM HINDI T0 ENGLISH wITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO THE TRANSLATION OF ‘RAMACHARlTMANAS‘, ‘THE RAMAYANA OF THULSIDAS

HINDI

Anisotropic adaptive resolution of boundary layers for heat conduction problems

We deal with the numerical solution of heat conduction problems featuring steep gradients. In order to solve the associated partial differential equation a finite volume technique is used and unstructured grids are employed. A discrete maximum principle for triangulations of a Delaunay type is developed. To capture thin boundary layers incorporating steep gradients an anisotropic mesh adaptation technique is implemented. Computational tests are performed for an academic problem where the exact solution is known as well as for a real world problem of a computer simulation of the thermoregulation of premature infants.

Preconditioner updates applied to CFD model problems

In the present paper we concentrate on solving sequences of nonsymmetric linear systems with block structure arising from compressible flow problems. We attempt to improve the solution process by sharing part of the computational effort throughout the sequence. This is achieved by application of a cheap updating technique for preconditioners which we adapted in order to be used for our applications. Tested on three benchmark compressible flow problems, the strategy speeds up the entire computation with an acceleration being particularly pronounced in phases of instationary behavior.

Agricultural practices and horizontal nutrient balances in urban gardens and the alternative use of urban agricultural land in Khartoum, Sudan

The surge in the urban population evident in most developing countries is a worldwide phenomenon, and often the result of drought, conflicts, poverty and the lack of education opportunities. In parallel with the growth of the cities is the growing need for food which leads to the burgeoning expansion of urban and peri-urban agriculture (UPA). In this context, urban agriculture (UA) contributes significantly to supplying local markets with both vegetable and animal produce. As an income generating activity, UA also contributes to the livelihoods of poor urban dwellers. In order to evaluate the nutrient status of urban soils in relation to garden management, this study assessed nutrient fluxes (inputs and outputs) in gardens on urban Gerif soils on the banks of the River Nile in Khartoum, the capital city of Sudan. To achieve this objective, a preliminary baseline survey was carried out to describe the structure of the existing garden systems. In cooperation with the author of another PhD thesis (Ms. Ishtiag Abdalla), alternative uses of cow dung in brick making kilns in urban Khartoum were assessed; and the socio-economic criteria of the brick kiln owners or agents, economical and plant nutritional value of animal dung and the gaseous emission related to brick making activities were assessed. A total of 40 household heads were interviewed using a semi-structured questionnaire to collect information on demographic, socio-economic and migratory characteristics of the household members, the gardening systems used and the problems encountered in urban gardening. Based on the results of this survey, gardens were divided into three groups: mixed vegetable-fodder gardens, mixed vegetable-subsistence livestock gardens and pure vegetable gardens. The results revealed that UA is the exclusive domain of men, 80% of them non-native to Khartoum. The harvested produce in all gardens was market oriented and represented the main source of income for 83% of the gardeners. Fast growing leafy vegetables such as Jew’s mallow (Corchorous olitorius L.), purslane (Portulaca oleracea L.) and rocket (Eruca sativa Mill.) were the dominant cultivated species. Most of the gardens (95%) were continuously cultivated throughout the year without any fallow period, unless they were flooded. Gardeners were not generally aware of the importance of crop diversity, which may help them overcome the strongly fluctuating market prices for their produce and thereby strengthen the contributions of UA to the overall productivity of the city. To measure nutrient fluxes, four gardens were selected and their nutrients inputs and outputs flows were monitored. In each garden, all plots were monitored for quantification of nutrient inputs and outputs. To determine soil chemical fertility parameters in each of the studied gardens, soil samples were taken from three selected plots at the beginning of the study in October 2007 (gardens L1, L2 and H1) and in April 2008 (garden H2) and at the end of the study period in March 2010. Additional soil sampling occurred in May 2009 to assess changes in the soil nutrient status after the River Nile flood of 2008 had receded. Samples of rain and irrigation water (river and well-water) were analyzed for nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), potassium (K) and carbon (C) content to determine their nutrient inputs. Catchment traps were installed to quantify the sediment yield from the River Nile flood. To quantify the nutrient inputs of sediments, samples were analyzed for N, P, K and organic carbon (Corg) content, cation exchange capacity (CEC) and the particle size distribution. The total nutrient inputs were calculated by multiplying the sediment nutrient content by total sediment deposits on individual gardens. Nutrient output in the form of harvested yield was quantified at harvest of each crop. Plant samples from each field were dried, and analyzed for their N, P, K and Corg content. Cumulative leaching losses of mineral N and P were estimated in a single plot in garden L1 from December 1st 2008 to July 1st 2009 using 12 ion exchange resins cartridges. Nutrients were extracted and analyzed for nitrate (NO3--N), ammonium (NH4+-N) and phosphate PO4-3-P. Changes in soil nutrient balance were assessed as inputs minus outputs. The results showed that across gardens, soil N and P concentrations increased from 2007 to 2009, while particle size distribution remained unchanged. Sediment loads and their respective contents of N, P and Corg decreased significantly (P < 0.05) from the gardens of the downstream lowlands (L1 and L2) to the gardens of the upstream highlands (H1 and H2). No significant difference was found in K deposits. None of the gardens received organic fertilizers and the only mineral fertilizer applied was urea (46-0-0). This equaled 29, 30, 54, and 67% of total N inputs to gardens L1, L2, H1, and H2, respectively. Sediment deposits of the River Nile floods contributed on average 67, 94, 6 and 42% to the total N, P, K and C inputs in lowland gardens and 33, 86, 4 and 37% of total N, P, K and C inputs in highland gardens. Irrigation water and rainfall contributed substantially to K inputs representing 96, 92, 94 and 96% of total K influxes in garden L1, L2, H1 and H2, respectively. Following the same order, total annual DM yields in the gardens were 26, 18, 16 and 1.8 t ha-1. Annual leaching losses were estimated to be 0.02 kg NH4+-N ha-1 (SE = 0.004), 0.03 kg NO3--N ha-1 (SE = 0.002) and 0.005 kg PO4-3-P ha-1 (SE = 0.0007). Differences between nutrient inputs and outputs indicated negative nutrient balances for P and K and positive balances of N and C for all gardens. The negative balances in P and K call for adoptions of new agricultural techniques such as regular manure additions or mulching which may enhance the soil organic matter status. A quantification of fluxes not measured in our study such as N2-fixation, dry deposition and gaseous emissions of C and N would be necessary to comprehensively assess the sustainability of these intensive gardening systems. The second part of the survey dealt with the brick making kilns. A total of 50 brick kiln owners/or agents were interviewed from July to August 2009, using a semi-structured questionnaire. The data collected included general information such as age, family size, education, land ownership, number of kilns managed and/or owned, number of months that kilns were in operation, quantity of inputs (cow dung and fuel wood) used, prices of inputs and products across the production season. Information related to the share value of the land on which the kilns were built and annual income for urban farmers and annual returns from dung for the animal raisers was also collected. Using descriptive statistics, budget calculation and Gini coefficient, the results indicated that renting the land to brick making kilns yields a 5-fold higher return than the rent for agriculture. Gini coefficient showed that the kiln owners had a more equal income distribution compared to farmers. To estimate emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and losses of N, P, K, Corg and DM from cow dung when used in brick making, samples of cow dung (loose and compacted) were collected from different kilns and analyzed for their N, P, K and Corg content. The procedure modified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1994) was used to estimate the gaseous emissions of cow dung and fuel wood. The amount of deforested wood was estimated according to the default values for wood density given by Dixon et al. (1991) and the expansion ratio for branches and small trees given by Brown et al. (1989). The data showed the monetary value of added N and P from cow dung was lower than for mineral fertilizers. Annual consumption of compacted dung (381 t DM) as biomass fuel by far exceeded the consumption of fuel wood (36 t DM). Gaseous emissions from cow dung and fuel wood were dominated by CO2, CO and CH4. Considering that Gerif land in urban Khartoum supports a multifunctional land use system, efficient use of natural resources (forest, dung, land and water) will enhance the sustainability of the UA and brick making activities. Adoption of new kilns with higher energy efficiency will reduce the amount of biomass fuels (cow dung and wood) used the amount of GHGs emitted and the threat to the few remaining forests.

Economic evaluation of proposed pure and mixed stands in Central Vietnam highlands

In comparison with mixed forest stands, the cultivation of pure plantations in Vietnam entails serious ecological consequences such as loss of biodiversity and higher rate of soil erosion. The economic evaluation is elaborated between pure plantations and mixed forests where the fast-growing tree species are mixed with slow growing tree species which are planted in stripes separating the segments with fast-growing tree species (Acacia sp.). For the evaluation, the input values were used from local costs of goods, services and labour. The results show that the internal rate of return is the highest in the case of pure plantation in comparison with mixed forests – 86% to 77%(first planting pattern: Acacia sp. + noble hardwood species) and 54% (second planting pattern: Acacia + Dipterocarpus sp. + Sindora sp.). The average profit per hectare and year is almost five times higher in the case of mixed stands. The first planting pattern reaches 2,650 $, the second planting pattern 2,280 $ and the pure acacia plantation only 460 $. From an economic point of view, the cultivation of mixed forests that corresponds to the principles of sustainable forestry generates a good economical profit while maintaining habitat complexity and biodiversity.

Effects of Organic and Inorganic Fertilizers on Growth and Yield of Banana (Musa AAA cv. Malindi) in Oman

The Sultanate of Oman is located on the south-eastern coast of the Arabian Peninsula, which lies on the south-western tip of the Asian continent. The strategic geographical locations of the Sultanate with its many maritime ports distributed on the Indian Ocean have historically made it one of the Arabian Peninsula leaders in the international maritime trade sector. Intensive trading relationships over long time periods have contributed to the high plant diversity seen in Oman where agricultural production depends entirely on irrigation from groundwater sources. As a consequence of the expansion of the irrigated area, groundwater depletion has increased, leading to the intrusion of seawater into freshwater aquifers. This phenomenon has caused water and soil salinity problems in large parts of the Al-Batinah governorate of Oman and threatens cultivated crops, including banana (Musa spp.). According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, the majority of South Al-Batinah farms are affected by salinity (ECe > 4 dS m-1). As no alternative farmland is available, the reclamation of salt-affected soils using simple cultural practices is of paramount importance, but in Oman little scientific research has been conducted to develop such methods of reclamation. This doctoral study was initiated to help filling this research gap, particularly for bananas. A literature review of the banana cultivation history revealed that the banana germplasm on the Arabian Peninsula is probably introduced from Indonesia and India via maritime routes across the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea. In a second part of this dissertation, two experiments are described. A laboratory trial conducted at the University of Kassel, in Witzenhausen, Germany from June to July 2010. This incubation experiment was done to explore how C and N mineralization of composted dairy manure and date palm straw differed in alkaline non-saline and saline soils. Each soil was amended with four organic fertilizers: 1) composted dairy manure, 2) manure + 10% date palm straw, 3) manure + 30% date palm straw or 4) date palm straw alone, in addition to un-amended soils as control. The results showed that the saline soil had a lower soil organic C content and microbial biomass C than the non-saline soil. This led to lower mineralization rates of manure and date palm straw in the saline soil. In the non-saline soil, the application of manure and straw resulted in significant increases of CO2 emissions, equivalent to 2.5 and 30% of the added C, respectively. In the non-amended control treatment of the saline soil, the sum of CO2-C reached only 55% of the soil organic C in comparison with the non-saline soil. In which 66% of the added manure and 75% of the added straw were emitted, assuming that no interactions occurred between soil organic C, manure C and straw C during microbial decomposition. The application of straw always led to a net N immobilization compared to the control. Salinity had no specific effect on N mineralization as indicated by the CO2-C to Nmin ratio of soil organic matter and manure. However, N immobilization was markedly stronger in the saline soil. Date palm straw strongly promoted saprotrophic fungi in contrast to manure and the combined application of manure and date palm straw had synergistic positive effects on soil microorganisms. In the last week of incubation, net-N mineralization was observed in nearly all treatments. The strongest increase in microbial biomass C was observed in the manure + straw treatment. In both soils, manure had no effect on the fungi-specific membrane component ergosterol. In contrast, the application of straw resulted in strong increases of the ergosterol content. A field experiment was conducted on two adjacent fields at the Agricultural Research Station, Rumais (23°41’15” N, 57°59’1” E) in the South of Al-Batinah Plain in Oman from October 2007 to July 2009. In this experiment, the effects of 24 soil and fertilizer treatments on the growth and productivity of Musa AAA cv. 'Malindi' were evaluated. The treatments consisted of two soil types (saline and amended non-saline), two fertilizer application methods (mixed and ring applied), six fertilizer amendments (1: fresh dairy manure, 2: composted dairy manure, 3: composted dairy manure and 10% date palm straw, 4: composted dairy manure and 30% date palm straw, 5: only NPK, and 6: NPK and micronutrients). Sandy loam soil was imported from another part of Oman to amended the soil in the planting holes and create non-saline conditions in the root-zone. The results indicate that replacing the saline soil in the root zone by non-saline soil improved plant growth and yield more than fertilizer amendments or application methods. Particularly those plants on amended soil where NPK was applied using the ring method and which received micronutrients grew significantly faster to harvest (339 days), had a higher average bunch weight (9.5 kg/bunch) and were consequently more productive (10.6 tonnes/hectare/cycle) compared to the other treatments.

Capturing Emergent Semantics from Social Annotation Systems

The ongoing growth of the World Wide Web, catalyzed by the increasing possibility of ubiquitous access via a variety of devices, continues to strengthen its role as our prevalent information and commmunication medium. However, although tools like search engines facilitate retrieval, the task of finally making sense of Web content is still often left to human interpretation. The vision of supporting both humans and machines in such knowledge-based activities led to the development of different systems which allow to structure Web resources by metadata annotations. Interestingly, two major approaches which gained a considerable amount of attention are addressing the problem from nearly opposite directions: On the one hand, the idea of the Semantic Web suggests to formalize the knowledge within a particular domain by means of the "top-down" approach of defining ontologies. On the other hand, Social Annotation Systems as part of the so-called Web 2.0 movement implement a "bottom-up" style of categorization using arbitrary keywords. Experience as well as research in the characteristics of both systems has shown that their strengths and weaknesses seem to be inverse: While Social Annotation suffers from problems like, e. g., ambiguity or lack or precision, ontologies were especially designed to eliminate those. On the contrary, the latter suffer from a knowledge acquisition bottleneck, which is successfully overcome by the large user populations of Social Annotation Systems. Instead of being regarded as competing paradigms, the obvious potential synergies from a combination of both motivated approaches to "bridge the gap" between them. These were fostered by the evidence of emergent semantics, i. e., the self-organized evolution of implicit conceptual structures, within Social Annotation data. While several techniques to exploit the emergent patterns were proposed, a systematic analysis - especially regarding paradigms from the field of ontology learning - is still largely missing. This also includes a deeper understanding of the circumstances which affect the evolution processes. This work aims to address this gap by providing an in-depth study of methods and influencing factors to capture emergent semantics from Social Annotation Systems. We focus hereby on the acquisition of lexical semantics from the underlying networks of keywords, users and resources. Structured along different ontology learning tasks, we use a methodology of semantic grounding to characterize and evaluate the semantic relations captured by different methods. In all cases, our studies are based on datasets from several Social Annotation Systems. Specifically, we first analyze semantic relatedness among keywords, and identify measures which detect different notions of relatedness. These constitute the input of concept learning algorithms, which focus then on the discovery of synonymous and ambiguous keywords. Hereby, we assess the usefulness of various clustering techniques. As a prerequisite to induce hierarchical relationships, our next step is to study measures which quantify the level of generality of a particular keyword. We find that comparatively simple measures can approximate the generality information encoded in reference taxonomies. These insights are used to inform the final task, namely the creation of concept hierarchies. For this purpose, generality-based algorithms exhibit advantages compared to clustering approaches. In order to complement the identification of suitable methods to capture semantic structures, we analyze as a next step several factors which influence their emergence. Empirical evidence is provided that the amount of available data plays a crucial role for determining keyword meanings. From a different perspective, we examine pragmatic aspects by considering different annotation patterns among users. Based on a broad distinction between "categorizers" and "describers", we find that the latter produce more accurate results. This suggests a causal link between pragmatic and semantic aspects of keyword annotation. As a special kind of usage pattern, we then have a look at system abuse and spam. While observing a mixed picture, we suggest that an individual decision should be taken instead of disregarding spammers as a matter of principle. Finally, we discuss a set of applications which operationalize the results of our studies for enhancing both Social Annotation and semantic systems. These comprise on the one hand tools which foster the emergence of semantics, and on the one hand applications which exploit the socially induced relations to improve, e. g., searching, browsing, or user profiling facilities. In summary, the contributions of this work highlight viable methods and crucial aspects for designing enhanced knowledge-based services of a Social Semantic Web.

Prevalence of intestinal parasites in small ruminants and their senstivity to treatments with ethnobotanical remedies in Cholistan, Pakistan

Livestock production contributes substantially to the livelihoods of poor rural farmers in Pakistan; strengthening pastoral communities plays an imperative role in the country’s thrive for poverty alleviation. Intestinal helminths constitute a major threat for pastoral livestock keepers in the whole country because chronic infestation leads to distinct losses in livestock productivity, particularly the growth of young animals. Synthetic anthelmintics have long been considered the only effective way of controlling this problem but high prices, side effects and chemical residues/toxicity problems, or development of resistance, lead to their very limited use in many pastoral systems. Additionally, poor pastoralists in remote areas of Pakistan hardly have access to appropriate anthelmintic drugs, which are also relatively expensive due to the long routes of transportation. The search for new and more sustainable ways of supporting livestock keepers in remote areas has given rise to studies of ethno-botanicals or traditional plant-based remedies to be used in livestock health care. Plant-based remedies are cheap or free of cost, environmentally safe and generally create no problem of drug resistance; they thus might substitute allopathic drugs. Furthermore, these remedies are easily available in remote areas and simple to prepare and/or administer. Cholistan desert is a quite poor region of Pakistan and the majority of its inhabitants are practicing a nomadic life. The region’s total livestock population (1.29 million heads) is almost twice that of the human population. Livestock husbandry is the primordial occupation of the communities and traditionally wealth assessment was based on the number of animals, especially goats and sheep, owned by an individual. Fortunately, about 60% of this desert region is richly endowed with highly adapted grasses, shrubs and trees. This natural flora has a rich heritage of scientifically unexplored botanical pharmacopoeia. Against this background, the present research project that was conducted under the umbrella of the International Center for Development and Decent Work at Kassel University, focused on a development aspect: in the Cholistan desert region it was firstly examined how pastoralists manage their livestock, which major health problems they face for the different animal species, and which of the naturally occurring plants they use for the treatment of animal diseases (Chapter 2). For this purpose, a baseline survey was carried out across five locations in Cholistan, using a structured questionnaire to collect data from 100 livestock farmers (LF) and 20 local healers (LH). Most of LF and LH were illiterate (66%; 70%). On average, LH had larger herds (109 animals) than LF (85 animals) and were more experienced in livestock husbandry and management. On average LF spent about 163 Euro per year on the treatment of their livestock, with a huge variability in expenditures. Eighty-six traditional remedies based on 64 plants belonging to 43 families were used. Capparaceae was the botanical family with the largest number of species used (4), followed by Chenopodiaceae, Poaceae, Solanaceae and Zygophyllaceae (3). The plants Capparis decidua (n=55 mentions), Salsola foetida (n=52), Suaeda fruticosa (n=46), Haloxylon salicornicum (n=42) and Haloxylon recurvum (n=39) were said to be most effective against the infestations with gastrointestinal parasites. Aerial parts (43%), leaves (26%), fruits (9%), seeds and seed oils (9%) were the plant parts frequently used for preparation of remedies, while flowers, roots, bulbs and pods were less frequently used (<5%). Common preparations were decoction, jaggery and ball drench; oral drug administration was very common. There was some variation in the doses used for different animal species depending on age, size and physical condition of the animal and severity of the disease. In a second step the regionally most prevalent gastrointestinal parasites of sheep and goats were determined (Chapter 3) in 500 animals per species randomly chosen from pastoral herds across the previously studied five localities. Standard parasitological techniques were applied to identify the parasites in faecal samples manually collected at the rectum. Overall helminth prevalence was 78.1% across the 1000 animals; pure nematode infestations were most prevalent (37.5%), followed by pure trematode (7.9%), pure cestode (2.6%) and pure protozoa infestations (0.8%). Mixed infestations with nematodes and trematodes occurred in 6.4% of all animals, mixed nematode-cestode infestations in 3.8%, and all three groups were found in 19.1% of the sheep and goats. In goats more males (81.1%) than females (77.0%) were infested, the opposite was found in sheep (73.6% males, 79.5% females). Parasites were especially prevalent in suckling goats (85.2%) and sheep (88.5%) and to a lesser extent in young (goats 80.6%, sheep 79.3%) and adult animals (goats 72.8%, sheep 73.8%). Haemonchus contortus, Trichuris ovis and Paramphistomum cervi were the most prevalent helminths. In a third step the in vitro anthelmintic activity of C. decidua, S. foetida, S. fruticosa, H. salicornicum and H. recurvum (Chapter 2) was investigated against adult worms of H. contortus, T. ovis and P. cervi (Chapter 3) via adult motility assay (Chapter 4). Various concentrations ranging from 7.8 to 500 mg dry matter/ml of three types of extracts of each plant, i.e. aqueous, methanol, and aqueous-methanol (30:70), were used at different time intervals to access their anthelmintic activity. Levamisol (0.55 mg/ml) and oxyclozanide (30 mg/ml) served as positive and phosphate-buffered saline as negative control. All extracts exhibited minimum and maximum activity at 2 h and 12 h after parasite exposure; the 500 mg/ml extract concentrations were most effective. Plant species (P<0.05), extract type (P<0.01), parasite species (P<0.01), extract concentration (P<0.01), time of exposure (P<0.01) and their interactions (P<0.01) had significant effects on the number of immobile/dead helminths. From the comparison of LC50 values it appeared that the aqueous extract of C. decidua was more potent against H. contortus and T. ovis, while the aqueous extract of S. foetida was effective against P. cervi. The methanol extracts of H. recurvum were most potent against all three types of parasites, and its aqueous-methanol extract was also very effective against T. ovis and P. cervi. Based on these result it is concluded that the aqueous extract of C. decidua, as well as the methanol and aqueous-methanol extract of H. recurvum have the potential to be developed into plant-based drugs for treatment against H. contortus, T. ovis and P. cervi infestations. Further studies are now needed to investigate the in vivo anthelmintic activity of these plants and plant extracts, respectively, in order to develop effective, cheap and locally available anthelmintics for pastoralists in Cholistan and neighboring desert regions. This will allow developing tangible recommendations for plant-based anthelminthic treatment of sheep and goat herds, and by this enable pastoralists to maintain healthy and productive flocks at low costs and probably even manufacture herbal drugs for marketing on a regional scale.

Agricultural Production and Yield Estimation: Two distinctive aspects of Brazilian Agriculture and a perspective on world food problems

Brazil has been increasing its importance in agricultural markets. The reasons are well known to be the relative abundance of land, the increasing technology used in crops, and the development of the agribusiness sector which allow for a fast response to price stimuli. The elasticity of acreage response to increases in expected return is estimated for Soybeans in a dynamic (long term) error correction model. Regarding yield patterns, a large variation in the yearly rates of growth in yield is observed, climate being probably the main source of this variation which result in ‘good’ and ‘bad’ years. In South America, special attention should be given to the El Niño and La Niña phenomena, both said to have important effects on rainfalls patterns and consequently in yield. The influence on El Niño and La Niña in historical data is examined and some ways of estimating the impact of climate on yield of Soybean and Corn markets are proposed. Possible implications of climate change may apply.