Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model

We provide methods for forecasting variables and predicting turning points in panel Bayesian VARs. We specify a flexible model which accounts for both interdependencies in the cross section and time variations in the parameters. Posterior distributions for the parameters are obtained for a particular type of diffuse, for Minnesota-type and for hierarchical priors. Formulas for multistep, multiunit point and average forecasts are provided. An application to the problem of forecasting the growth rate of output and of predicting turning points in the G-7 illustrates the approach. A comparison with alternative forecasting methods is also provided.

Histoplasma capsulatum var. duboisii infection in a patient with AIDS: rapid diagnosis using polymerase chain reaction-sequencing.

We describe an original case of disseminated infection with Histoplasma capsulatum (Hc) var. duboisii in an African patient with AIDS who migrated to Switzerland. The diagnosis of histoplasmosis was suggested using direct examination of tissues and confirmed in 24 h with a panfungal polymerase chain reaction assay. The variety duboisii of Hc was established using DNA sequencing of the polymorphic genomic region OLE. Molecular tools allow diagnosis of histoplasmosis in 24 h, which is drastically shorter than culture procedures.

Renal hemodynamic and natriuretic effects of concomitant Angiotensin-converting enzyme and neutral endopeptidase inhibition in men.

This double-blind placebo-controlled study was designed to investigate the acute and sustained hormonal, renal hemodynamic, and tubular effects of concomitant ACE and neutral endopeptidase (NEP) inhibition by omapatrilat, a vasopeptidase inhibitor, in men. Thirty-two normotensive subjects were randomized to receive a placebo, omapatrilat (40 or 80 mg), or the fosinopril/hydrochlorothiazide (FOS/HCTZ; 20 and 12.5 mg, respectively) fixed combination for 1 week. Blood pressure, renal hemodynamics, urinary electrolytes and atrial natriuretic peptide excretion, and several components of the renin-angiotensin system were measured for 6 hours on days 1 and 7 of drug administration. When compared with the placebo and the FOS/HCTZ combination, omapatrilat induced a significant decrease in plasma angiotensin II levels (P<0.001 versus placebo; P<0.05 versus FOS/HCTZ) and an increase in urinary atrial natriuretic peptide excretion (P<0.01). These hormonal effects were associated with a significant fall in blood pressure (P<0.01) and a marked renal vasodilatation, but with no significant changes in glomerular filtration rate. The FOS/HCTZ markedly increased urinary sodium excretion (P<0.001). The acute natriuretic response to FOS/HCTZ was significantly greater than that observed with omapatrilat (P<0.01). Over 1 week, however, the cumulative sodium excretion induced by both doses of omapatrilat (P<0.01 versus placebo) was at least as great as that induced by the dose of FOS/HCTZ (P=NS versus FOS/HCTZ). In conclusion, the results of the present study in normal subjects demonstrate that omapatrilat has favorable renal hemodynamic effects. Omapatrilat combines potent ACE inhibition with a sustained natriuresis, which explains its well-documented potent antihypertensive efficacy.

Département du Var : Divisé par les Contributions Indirectes en directions d'Arrondissements Recettes Sédentaires Recettes Ambulantes à cheval Recettes Ambulantes à pied & Recettes Buralistes

Échelle(s) : [ca 1:263 000], Echelle de 40000 Mètres

Sexual behaviour of men that consulted in medical outpatient clinics in Western Switzerland from 2005-2006: risk levels unknown to doctors?

BACKGROUND: To determine male outpatient attenders' sexual behaviours, expectations and experience of talking about their sexuality and sexual health needs with a doctor. METHODS: A survey was conducted among all male patients aged 18-70, recruited from the two main medical outpatient clinics in Lausanne, Switzerland, in 2005-2006. The anonymous self-administered questionnaire included questions on sexual behaviour, HIV/STI information needs, expectations and experiences regarding discussion of sexual matters with a doctor. RESULTS: The response rate was 53.0% (N = 1452). The mean age was 37.7 years. Overall, 13.4% of patients were defined as at STI risk--i.e. having not consistently used condoms with casual partners in the last 6 months, or with a paid partner during the last intercourse--regarding their sexual behaviour in the last year. 90.9% would have liked their physician to ask them questions concerning their sexual life; only 61.4% had ever had such a discussion. The multivariate analysis showed that patients at risk tended to have the following characteristics: recruited from the HIV testing clinic, lived alone, declared no religion, had a low level of education, felt uninformed about HIV/AIDS, were younger, had had concurrent sexual partners in the last 12 months. However they were not more likely to have discussed sexual matters with their doctor than patients not at risk. CONCLUSION: Recording the sexual history and advice on the prevention of the risks of STI should become routine practice for primary health care doctors.

Vertebral microarchitecture and fragility fracture in men: a TBS study.

INTRODUCTION: Although osteoporosis is considered a disease of women, 25% of the individuals with osteoporosis are men. BMD measurement by DXA is the gold standard used to diagnose osteoporosis and assess fracture risk. Nevertheless, BMD does not take into account alterations of microarchitecture. TBS is an index of bone microarchitecture extracted from the spine DXA. Previous studies have reported the ability of the spine TBS to predict osteoporotic fractures in women. This is the first case-controlled study in men to evaluate the potential diagnostic value of TBS as a complement to bone mineral density (BMD), by comparing men with and without fractures. METHODS: To be eligible for this study, subjects had to be non-Hispanic US white men aged 40 and older. Furthermore, subjects were excluded if they have or have had previously any treatment or illness that may influence bone metabolism. Fractured subjects were included if the presence of at least one fracture was confirmed. Cases were matched for age (±3 years) and BMD (±0.04 g/cm(2)) with three controls. BMD and TBS were first retrospectively evaluated at AP spine (L1-L4) with a Prodigy densitometer (GE-Lunar, Madison, USA) and TBS iNsight® (Med-Imaps, France) in Lausanne University Hospital blinded from clinical outcome. Inter-group comparisons were undertaken using Student's t-tests or Wilcoxon signed rank tests. Odds ratios were calculated per one standard deviation decrease as well as areas under the receiver operating curve (AUC). RESULTS: After applying inclusion/exclusion criteria, a group of 180 male subjects was obtained. This group consists of 45 fractured subjects (age=63.3±12.6 years, BMI=27.1±4.2 kg/m(2)) and 135 control subjects (age=62.9±11.9 years, BMI=26.7±3.9 kg/m(2)) matched for age (p=0.86) and BMD (p=0.20). A weak correlation was obtained between TBS and BMD and between TBS and BMI (r=0.27 and r=-0.28, respectively, p<0.01). Subjects with fracture have a significant lower TBS compared to control subjects (p=0.013), whereas no differences were obtained for BMI, height and weight (p>0.10). TBS OR per standard deviation is 1.55 [1.09-2.20] for all fracture type. When considering vertebral fracture only TBS OR reached 2.07 [1.14-3.74]. CONCLUSION: This study showed the potential use of TBS in men. TBS revealed a significant difference between fractured and age- and spine BMD-matched nonfractured subjects. These results are consistent with those previously reported on for men of other nationalities.

Lycaenid caterpillars (Lepidoptera, Lycaenidae) eating flowers of Dalea pennellii var. chilensis (Fabaceae) in the northern Chilean Andes

Lycaenid caterpillars (Lepidoptera, Lycaenidae) eating flowers of Dalea pennellii var. chilensis (Fabaceae) in the northern Chilean Andes. The shrub Dalea pennellii var. chilensis (Fabaceae) is reported for the first time as a host plant for three Neotropical Polyommatini (Lepidoptera, Lycaenidae, Polyommatinae): Hemiargus ramon (Dognin, 1887), Leptotes trigemmatus (Butler, 1881) and Nabokovia faga (Dognin, 1895), based on two collections performed in the western slopes of the northern Chilean Andes in two consecutive summers. The relative abundance was always above 90% for N. faga while it was always less than 5% for H. ramon and L. trigemmatus. Furthermore, N. faga was not found on inflorescences of other native Fabaceae examined in the study site. This pattern suggests a close relationship between N. faga and D. pennellii var. chilensis, at least at a local scale.

The taxonomic identity of Heliconius melpomene f. pyritosa var. fumigata Zikán (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae)

The taxonomic identity of the butterfly Heliconius melpomene f. pyritosa var. fumigata Zikán, 1937 (Nymphalidae: Heliconiinae) is discussed based on the discovery of the specimen based on which this name was assigned. The specimen is not a variation of Eueides tales surdus Stichel, 1903, as previously stated, but is in fact a variation of H. melpomene f. pyritosa, which is a synonym of Heliconius erato amalfreda Riffarth, 1901.