Hybrid probabilistic wind power forecasting using temporally local Gaussian process

The demand for sustainable development has resulted in a rapid growth in wind power worldwide. Despite various approaches have been proposed to improve the accuracy and to overcome the uncertainties associated with traditional methods, the stochastic and variable nature of wind still remains the most challenging issue in accurately forecasting wind power. This paper presents a hybrid deterministic-probabilistic method where a temporally local ‘moving window’ technique is used in Gaussian Process to examine estimated forecasting errors. This temporally local Gaussian Process employs less measurement data while faster and better predicts wind power at two wind farms, one in the USA and the other in Ireland. Statistical analysis on the results shows that the method can substantially reduce the forecasting error while more likely generate Gaussian-distributed residuals, particularly for short-term forecast horizons due to its capability to handle the time-varying characteristics of wind power.

The whole song is greater than the sum of its parts: Local and structural features in music listening

Four experiments reported here demonstrate the importance of structural as well as local features in listening to contemporary popular music. Experiment 1 established that listeners without formal musical training regard as salient the formal structure that links individual sections of songs. When asked to listen to and assemble the individual sections of unfamiliar contemporary songs to form new compositions, participants positioned the sections in ways consistent with the true structure of the music. In Experiment 2, participants were provided with only the song lyrics with which to arrange the individual sections of contemporary songs. It was found that in addition to musical features
studied in Experiment 1, lyrical content of contemporary music also acts as a strong cue to a song’s formal structure. Experiments 3 and 4 revealed that listeners’ enjoyment of music is influenced both by structural features and local features of music, which were carried by the individual song sections.
The influence of structural features on music listening was most apparent over repeated hearings. In Experiment 4, listeners’ liking for contemporary music followed an inverted U-shape trend with repeated exposure, in which liking for music took a downward turn after just four repeated hearings. In contrast, liking for restructured music increased with repeated hearings and almost eliminated an initial negative effect of restructuring by the sixth hearing. In sum, our findings demonstrate that structural features as well as local features of contemporary music are salient and important to
listeners.

Reaching out: medical students leading in local communities

Background: Queen's University Red Cross is a medical student-led volunteer group with a key aim of promoting social change within local communities and empowering young people to aspire to higher education. We describe ‘The Personal Development Certificate’, a 12–week community development programme devised by third-year medical students at Queen's University Belfast to target young people who are lacking educational motivation, are disengaged at home or are marginalised through social circumstances.

Context: Community-based education is of increasing importance within undergraduate and postgraduate medical education in the UK, and further afield. We evaluated the perceived improvements in key skills such as teamwork, leadership, communication, and problem solving in students following participation in this programme, and the extent to which their attitude and appreciation of community-based medicine changed.

Innovation: Following facilitation of this community-based initiative, all students reported a perceived improvement in the acquired skill sets. Students made strong links from this programme to previous clinical experiences and appreciated the opportunity to translate a series of classroom-learned skills to real-life environments and interactions. The students’ appreciation and understanding of community-based medicine was the single most improved area of our evaluation.

Implications: We have demonstrated that medical students possess the skills to develop and facilitate their own educational projects. Non-clinical, student-led community projects have the potential to be reproduced using recognised frameworks and guidelines to complement the current undergraduate medical curriculum

Predictive Factors for Local Control in Primary and Metastatic Lung Tumours after Four to Five Fraction Stereotactic Ablative Body Radiotherapy: A Single Institution's Comprehensive Experience

AIMS: We report the outcomes of a large lung stereotactic ablative body radiotherapy (SABR) programme for primary non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and pulmonary metastases. The primary study aim was to identify factors predictive for local control.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: In total, 311 pulmonary tumours in 254 patients were treated between 2008 and 2011 with SABR using 48-60 Gy in four to five fractions. Local, regional and distant failure data were collected prospectively, whereas other end points were collected retrospectively. Potential clinical and dosimetric predictors of local control were evaluated using univariate and multivariate analyses.

RESULTS: Of the 311 tumours, 240 were NSCLC and 71 were other histologies. The 2 year local control rate was 96% in stage I NSCLC, 76% in colorectal cancer (CRC) metastases and 91% in non-lung/non-CRC metastases. Predictors of better local control on multivariate analysis were non-CRC tumours and a larger proportion of the planning target volume (PTV) receiving ≥100% of the prescribed dose (higher PTV V100). Among the 45 CRC metastases, a higher PTV V100 and previous chemotherapy predicted for better local control.

CONCLUSIONS: Lung SABR of 48-60 Gy/four to five fractions resulted in high local control rates for all tumours except CRC metastases. Covering more of the PTV with the prescription dose (a higher PTV V100) also resulted in superior local control.

The signature of fine scale local adaptation in Atlantic salmon revealed from common garden experiments in nature

Understanding the extent, scale and genetic basis of local adaptation is important for conservation and management. Its relevance in salmonids at microgeographic scales, where dispersal (and hence potential gene flow) can be substantial, has however been questioned. Here we compare the fitness of communally-reared offspring of local and foreign Atlantic salmon Salmo salar from adjacent Irish rivers and reciprocal F1 hybrid crosses between them, in the wild ‘home’ environment of the local population. Experimental groups did not differ in wild smolt output but a catastrophic flood event may have limited our ability to detect freshwater performance differences, which were evident in a previous study. Foreign parr exhibited higher, and hybrids intermediate, emigration rates from the natal stream relative to local parr, consistent with genetically-based behavioural differences. Adult return rates were lower for the foreign compared to the local group. Overall lifetime success of foreigners and hybrids relative to locals was estimated at 31% and 40% (mean of both hybrid groups), respectively. The results imply a genetic basis to fitness differences among populations separated by only 50km, driven largely by variation in smolt to adult return rates. Hence even if supplementary stocking programs obtain broodstock from neighbouring rivers, the risk of extrinsic outbreeding depression may be high.

Local Conventions in Game Play in an Evolving Dual Social Network Framework

People usually perform economic interactions within the social setting of a small group, while they obtain relevant information from a broader source. We capture this feature with a dynamic interaction model based on two separate social networks. Individuals play a coordination game in an interaction network, while updating their strategies using information from a separate influence network through which information is disseminated. In each time period, the interaction and influence networks co-evolve, and the individuals’ strategies are updated through a modified naive learning process. We show that both network structures and players’ strategies always reach a steady state, in which players form fully connected groups and converge to local conventions. We also analyze the influence exerted by a minority group of strongly opinionated players on these outcomes.

Kernel based approaches to local nonlinear non-parametric variable selection

In this paper, we consider the variable selection problem for a nonlinear non-parametric system. Two approaches are proposed, one top-down approach and one bottom-up approach. The top-down algorithm selects a variable by detecting if the corresponding partial derivative is zero or not at the point of interest. The algorithm is shown to have not only the parameter but also the set convergence. This is critical because the variable selection problem is binary, a variable is either selected or not selected. The bottom-up approach is based on the forward/backward stepwise selection which is designed to work if the data length is limited. Both approaches determine the most important variables locally and allow the unknown non-parametric nonlinear system to have different local dimensions at different points of interest. Further, two potential applications along with numerical simulations are provided to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed algorithms.

An approach to determine the local boundary of small disturbance voltage stability region in a cut-set power space:基于微扰的割集电压稳定域局部边界求解方法

A new approach to determine the local boundary of voltage stability region in a cut-set power space (CVSR) is presented. Power flow tracing is first used to determine the generator-load pair most sensitive to each branch in the interface. The generator-load pairs are then used to realize accurate small disturbances by controlling the branch power flow in increasing and decreasing directions to obtain new equilibrium points around the initial equilibrium point. And, continuous power flow is used starting from such new points to get the corresponding critical points around the initial critical point on the CVSR boundary. Then a hyperplane cross the initial critical point can be calculated by solving a set of linear algebraic equations. Finally, the presented method is validated by some systems, including New England 39-bus system, IEEE 118-bus system, and EPRI-1000 bus system. It can be revealed that the method is computationally more efficient and has less approximation error. It provides a useful approach for power system online voltage stability monitoring and assessment. This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 50707019), Special Fund of the National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2009CB219701), Foundation for the Author of National Excellent Doctoral Dissertation of PR China (No. 200439), Tianjin Municipal Science and Technology Development Program (No. 09JCZDJC25000), National Major Project of Scientific and Technical Supporting Programs of China During the 11th Five-year Plan Period (No. 2006BAJ03A06). ©2009 State Grid Electric Power Research Institute Press.

Does the UK Local Finance Improvement Trust (Lift) Initiative Improve Risk Management in Public-Private Procurement?

The UK government introduced the Private Finance Initiative (PFI) and, latterly, the Local Improvement Finance Trust (LIFT) in an attempt to improve public service provision. As a variant of PFI, LIFT seeks to create a framework for the effective provision of primary care facilities. Like conventional PFI procurement, LIFT projects involve long-term contracts, complex multi-party interactions and thus create various risks to public sector clients. This paper investigates the advantages and disadvantages of LIFT with a focus on how this approach facilitates or impedes risk management from the public sector client perspective. Our paper concludes that LIFT has a potential for creating additional problems, including the further reduction of public sector control, conflicts of interest, the inappropriate use of enabling funds, and higher than market rental costs affecting the uptake of space in the buildings by local health care providers. However, there is also evidence that LIFT has facilitated new investment and that Primary Care Trusts (PCTs) have themselves started addressing some of the weaknesses of this procurement format through the bundling of projects and other forms of regional co-operation.

Local atomic structure modulations activate metal oxide as electrocatalyst for hydrogen evolution in acidic water

Modifications of local structure at atomic level could precisely and effectively tune the capacity of materials, enabling enhancement in the catalytic activity. Here we modulate the local atomic structure of a classical but inert transition metal oxide, tungsten trioxide, to be an efficient electrocatalyst for hydrogen evolution in acidic water, which has shown promise as an alternative to platinum. Structural analyses and theoretical calculations together indicate that the origin of the enhanced activity could be attributed to the tailored electronic structure by means of the local atomic structure modulations. We anticipate that suitable structure modulations might be applied on other transition metal oxides to meet the optimal thermodynamic and kinetic requirements, which may pave the way to unlock the potential of other promising candidates as cost-effective electrocatalysts for hydrogen evolution in industry.