Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones.

Let them eat steak : food preferences of patients in a tertiary public hospital

Information on foods patients like and dislike is the essential basis for planning menus which are acceptable to patients and promote adequate consumption. The aim of this study was to obtain quantitative data on the food preferences of inpatients at a large metropolitan public hospital for use in menu planning. Methodology was based on a study by Williams et al (1988), and included additional questions about appetite and taste changes. The survey used a 9 point hedonic scale to rate foods listed in random order and was modified to incorporate more contemporary foods than those used in the originalWilliams study. Surveys were conducted by final year University of Queensland dietetics students on Food Service Practicum at the Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital (929 beds) in 2012. The first survey (220 questions, n = 157) had a response rate of 61%. The second included more sandwich fillings and salads (231 questions, n = 219, response rate 67%). Total number surveyed was 376. Results showed the most preferred foods were roast potato, grilled steak, ice cream, fresh strawberries, roast lamb, roast beef, grapes and banana. The least preferred foods were grapefruit, soybeans, lentils, sardines, prune juice and grapefruit juice. Patients who reported taste changes (10%) had similar food preferences to those who didn’t report taste changes. Patients who reported poor/very poor appetite (10%) generally scored foods lower than those who reported OK (22%), good/very good appetite (65%). The results of this study informed planning for a new patient menu at the RBWH in December 2012.

Letters and numbers in Excel : fostering student engagement in fundamentals of maths & computing

The television quiz program Letters and Numbers, broadcast on the SBS network, has recently become quite popular in Australia. This paper considers an implementation in Excel 2010 and its potential as a vehicle to showcase a range of mathematical and computing concepts and principles.

Letters & Numbers : a vehicle to illustrate mathematical and computing fundamentals

The television quiz program Letters and Numbers, broadcast on the SBS network, has recently become quite popular in Australia. This paper explores the potential of this game to illustrate and engage student interest in a range of fundamental concepts of computer science and mathematics. The Numbers Game in particular has a rich mathematical structure whose analysis and solution involves concepts of counting and problem size, discrete (tree) structures, language theory, recurrences, computational complexity, and even advanced memory management. This paper presents an analysis of these games and their teaching applications, and presents some initial results of use in student assignments.

Airports of the future : improving operation, security and experience

The final report for the ARC project "Airports of the Future". It contains the findings and recommendations provided by the various teams to the industry partners.

Prospects for the development of sugarcane biorefineries

Sugarcane biorefineries co-producing fuels, green chemicals and bio-products offer great potential for improving the profitability and sustainability of sugarcane industries around the world. Sugarcane bagasse is widely regarded as one of the best biomass feedstocks for early adoption and commercialisation of biorefining technologies because of the large scale of the resource and its availability at sugar factories. Biomass biorefineries aim to convert bagasse through biochemical and thermochemical processes to produce low cost fermentable sugars which are a platform for value-adding. Through subsequent fermentation technologies or chemical synthesis, the sugars can be converted to fuels including ethanol and butanol, oils, organic acids such as succinic and levulinic and polymer precursors. Other biorefinery products can include food and animal feeds, plastics, fibre products and resins. Recent advances in biorefinery production technologies are being demonstrated in a unique research facility at the Queensland University of Technology’s Mackay Renewable Biocommodities Pilot Plant in Mackay, Australia. This pilot scale production facility located at Mackay Sugar Ltd’s Racecourse Mill is demonstrating the production of a range of fuels and other products from sugarcane bagasse. This paper will address the opportunities available for sugarcane biorefineries to contribute to future profitability and sustainability of the sugarcane industry.

Characterising the spatial dynamics of sympatric Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus populations in the Philippines

Entomological surveillance and control are essential to the management of dengue fever (DF). Hence, understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of DF vectors, Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.) and Ae. (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse), is paramount. In the Philippines, resources are limited and entomological surveillance and control are generally commenced during epidemics, when transmission is difficult to control. Recent improvements in spatial epidemiological tools and methods offer opportunities to explore more efficient DF surveillance and control solutions: however, there are few examples in the literature from resource-poor settings. The objectives of this study were to: (i) explore spatial patterns of Aedes populations and (ii) predict areas of high and low vector density to inform DF control in San Jose village, Muntinlupa city, Philippines. Fortnightly, adult female Aedes mosquitoes were collected from 50 double-sticky ovitraps (SOs) located in San Jose village for the period June-November 2011. Spatial clustering analysis was performed to identify high and low density clusters of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes. Spatial autocorrelation was assessed by examination of semivariograms, and ordinary kriging was undertaken to create a smoothed surface of predicted vector density in the study area. Our results show that both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus were present in San Jose village during the study period. However, one Aedes species was dominant in a given geographic area at a time, suggesting differing habitat preferences and interspecies competition between vectors. Density maps provide information to direct entomological control activities and advocate the development of geographically enhanced surveillance and control systems to improve DF management in the Philippines.

Phosphorus-based functional groups as hydrogen bonding templates for rotaxane formation

We report on the use of the hydrogen bond acceptor properties of some phosphorus-containing functional groups for the assembly of a series of [2]rotaxanes. Phosphinamides, and the homologous thio– and selenophosphinamides, act as hydrogen bond acceptors that, in conjunction with an appropriately positioned amide group on the thread, direct the assembly of amide-based macrocycles around the axle to form rotaxanes in up to 60% yields. Employing solely phosphorus-based functional groups as the hydrogen bond accepting groups on the thread, a bis(phosphinamide) template and a phosphine oxide-phosphinamide template afforded the corresponding rotaxanes in 18 and 15 % yields, respectively. X-Ray crystallography of the rotaxanes shows the presence of up to four intercomponent hydrogen bonds between the amide groups of the macrocycle and various hydrogen bond accepting groups on the thread, including rare examples of amide-to-phosphonamide, -thiophosphinamide and -selenophosphinamide groups. With a phosphine oxide-phosphinamide thread, the solid state structure of the rotaxane is remarkable, featuring no direct intercomponent hydrogen bonds but rather a hydrogen bond network involving water molecules that bridge the H-bonding groups of the macrocycle and thread through bifurcated hydrogen bonds. The incorporation of phosphorus-based functional groups into rotaxanes may prove useful for the development of molecular shuttles in which the macrocycle can be used to hinder or expose binding ligating sites for metal-based catalysts.

Sulfur-containing amide-based [2]rotaxanes and molecular shuttles

We report the synthesis, structure and properties of [2]rotaxanes prepared by the assembly of benzylic amide macrocycles around a series of amide and sulfide-/sulfoxide-/sulfone-containing threads. The efficacy of rotaxane formation is related to the hydrogen bond accepting properties of the various sulfur-containing functional groups in the thread, with the highest yields (up to 63% with a rigid vinyl spacer in the template site) obtained for sulfoxide rotaxanes. X-Ray crystallography of a sulfoxide rotaxane, 5, shows that the macrocycle adopts a highly symmetrical chair-like conformation in the solid state, with short hydrogen bonds between the macrocycle isophthalamide NH-protons and the amide carbonyl and sulfoxide S-O of the thread. In contrast, in the X-ray crystal structures of the analogous sulfide (4) and sulfone (6) rotaxanes the macrocycle adopts boat-like conformations with long intercomponent NH…O=SO and NH…S hydrogen bonds (in addition to several intercomponent amide-amide hydrogen bonds). Taking advantage of the different hydrogen bonding modes of the sulfur-based functional groups, a switchable molecular shuttle was prepared in which the oxidation level of sulfur determines the position of the macrocycle on the thread.

Contribution of fibroblast and mast cell (afferent) and tumor (efferent) IL-6 effects within the tumor microenvironment

Hyperactive inflammatory responses following cancer initiation have led to cancer being described as a 'wound that never heals'. These inflammatory responses elicit signals via NFκB leading to IL-6 production, and IL-6 in turn has been shown to induce epithelial to mesenchymal transition in breast cancer cells in vitro, implicating a role for this cytokine in cancer cell invasion. We previously have shown that conditioned medium derived from cancer-associated fibroblasts induced an Epithelial to Mesenchymal transition (EMT) in PMC42-LA breast cancer cells and we have now identify IL-6 as present in this medium. We further show that IL-6 is expressed approximately 100 fold higher in a cancer-associated fibroblast line compared to normal fibroblasts. Comparison of mouse-specific (stroma) and human-specific (tumor) IL-6 mRNA expression from MCF-7, MDA MB 468 and MDA MB 231 xenografts also indicated the stroma rather than tumor as a significantly higher source of IL-6 expression. Mast cells (MCs) feature in inflammatory cancer-associated stroma, and activated MCs secrete IL-6. We observed a higher MC index (average number of mast cells per xenograft section/average tumor size) in MDA MB 468 compared to MDA MB 231 xenografts, where all MC were observed to be active (degranulating). This higher MC index correlated with greater mouse-specific IL-6 expression in the MDA MB 468 xenografts, implicating MC as an important source of stromal IL-6. Furthermore, immunohistochemistry on these xenografts for pSTAT3, which lies downstream of the IL-6 receptor indicated frequent correlations between pSTAT3 and mast cell positive cells. Analysis of publically available databases for IL-6 expression in patient tissue revealed higher IL-6 in laser capture microdissected stroma compared to adjacent tissue epithelium from patients with inflammatory breast cancer (IBC) and invasive non-inflammatory breast cancer (non-IBC) and we show that IL-6 expression was significantly higher in Basal versus Luminal molecular/phenotypic groupings of breast cancer cell lines. Finally, we discuss how afferent and efferent IL-6 pathways may participate in a positive feedback cycle to dictate tumor progression.

The impact of flood and post-flood cleaning on airborne microbiological and particle contamination in residential houses

In January 2011, Brisbane, Australia, experienced a major river flooding event. We aimed to investigate its effects on air quality and assess the role of prompt cleaning activities in reducing the airborne exposure risk. A comprehensive, multi-parameter indoor and outdoor measurement campaign was conducted in 41 residential houses, 2 and 6 months after the flood. The median indoor air concentrations of supermicrometer particle number (PN), PM10, fungi and bacteria 2 months after the flood were comparable to those previously measured in Brisbane. These were 2.88 p cm-3, 15 µg m-3, 804 cfu m-3 and 177 cfu m-3 for flood-affected houses (AFH), and 2.74 p cm-3, 15 µg m-3, 547 cfu m-3 and 167 cfu m-3 for non-affected houses (NFH), respectively. The I/O (indoor/outdoor) ratios of these pollutants were 1.08, 1.38, 0.74 and 1.76 for AFH and 1.03, 1.32, 0.83 and 2.17 for NFH, respectively. The average of total elements (together with transition metals) in indoor dust was 2296 ± 1328 µg m-2 for AFH and 1454 ± 678 µg m-2 for NFH, respectively. In general, the differences between AFH and NFH were not statistically significant, implying the absence of a measureable effect on air quality from the flood. We postulate that this was due to the very swift and effective cleaning of the flooded houses by 60,000 volunteers. Among the various cleaning methods, the use of both detergent and bleach was the most efficient at controlling indoor bacteria. All cleaning methods were equally effective for indoor fungi. This study provides quantitative evidence of the significant impact of immediate post-flood cleaning on mitigating the effects of flooding on indoor bioaerosol contamination and other pollutants.

Characteristics of ultrafine particle sources and deposition rates in primary school classrooms

The aim of this work was to investigate changes in particle number concentration (PNC) within naturally ventilated primary school classrooms arising from local sources either within or adjacent to the classrooms. We quantify the rate at which ultrafine particles were emitted either from printing, grilling, heating or cleaning activities and the rate at which the particles were removed by both deposition and air exchange processes. At each of 25 schools in Brisbane, Australia, two weeks of measurements of PNC and CO2 were taken both outdoors and in the two classrooms. Bayesian regression modelling was employed in order to estimate the relevant rates and analyse the relationship between air exchange rate (AER), particle infiltration and the deposition rates of particle generated from indoor activities in the classrooms. During schooling hours, grilling events at the school tuckshop as well as heating and printing in the classrooms led to indoor PNCs being elevated by a factor of more than four, with emission rates of (2.51 ± 0.25) x 1011 p min-1, (8.99 ± 6.70) x 1011 p min-1 and (5.17 ± 2.00) x 1011 p min-1, respectively. During non-school hours, cleaning events elevated indoor PNC by a factor of above five, with an average emission rate of (2.09 ± 6.30) x 1011 p min-1. Particles were removed by both air exchange and deposition; chiefly by ventilation when AER > 0.7 h-1 and by deposition when AER < 0.7 h-1.

Estimating present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the Australian coastline

The occurrence of extreme water level events along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to devastating impacts on coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is very important that the probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform flood and coastal management and for future planning. The aim of this study was to provide estimates of present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, arising from combinations of mean sea level, astronomical tide and storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical storms, but exclusive of surface gravity waves. The study has been undertaken in two main stages. In the first stage, a high-resolution (~10 km along the coast) hydrodynamic depth averaged model has been configured for the whole coastline of Australia using the Danish Hydraulics Institute’s Mike21 modelling suite of tools. The model has been forced with astronomical tidal levels, derived from the TPX07.2 global tidal model, and meteorological fields, from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction’s global reanalysis, to generate a 61-year (1949 to 2009) hindcast of water levels. This model output has been validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites around Australia with long records. At each of the model grid points located around the coast, time series of annual maxima and the several highest water levels for each year were derived from the multi-decadal water level hindcast and have been fitted to extreme value distributions to estimate exceedance probabilities. Stage 1 provided a reliable estimate of the present day total water level exceedance probabilities around southern Australia, which is mainly impacted by extra-tropical storms. However, as the meteorological fields used to force the hydrodynamic model only weakly include the effects of tropical cyclones the resultant water levels exceedance probabilities were underestimated around western, northern and north-eastern Australia at higher return periods. Even if the resolution of the meteorological forcing was adequate to represent tropical cyclone-induced surges, multi-decadal periods yielded insufficient instances of tropical cyclones to enable the use of traditional extreme value extrapolation techniques. Therefore, in the second stage of the study, a statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks and central pressures was developed using histroic observations. This model was then used to generate synthetic events that represented 10,000 years of cyclone activity for the Australia region, with characteristics based on the observed tropical cyclones over the last ~40 years. Wind and pressure fields, derived from these synthetic events using analytical profile models, were used to drive the hydrodynamic model to predict the associated storm surge response. A random time period was chosen, during the tropical cyclone season, and astronomical tidal forcing for this period was included to account for non-linear interactions between the tidal and surge components. For each model grid point around the coast, annual maximum total levels for these synthetic events were calculated and these were used to estimate exceedance probabilities. The exceedance probabilities from stages 1 and 2 were then combined to provide a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia.

Harnessing the influence of reactive edges and defects of graphene substrates for achieving complete cycle of room-temperature molecular sensing

Molecular doping and detection are at the forefront of graphene research, a topic of great interest in physical and materials science. Molecules adsorb strongly on graphene, leading to a change in electrical conductivity at room temperature. However, a common impediment for practical applications reported by all studies to date is the excessively slow rate of desorption of important reactive gases such as ammonia and nitrogen dioxide. Annealing at high temperatures, or exposure to strong ultraviolet light under vacuum, is employed to facilitate desorption of these gases. In this article, the molecules adsorbed on graphene nanoflakes and on chemically derived graphene-nanomesh flakes are displaced rapidly at room temperature in air by the use of gaseous polar molecules such as water and ethanol. The mechanism for desorption is proposed to arise from the electrostatic forces exerted by the polar molecules, which decouples the overlap between substrate defect states, molecule states, and graphene states near the Fermi level. Using chemiresistors prepared from water-based dispersions of single-layer graphene on mesoporous alumina membranes, the study further shows that the edges of the graphene flakes (showing p-type responses to NO2 and NH3) and the edges of graphene nanomesh structures (showing n-type responses to NO2 and NH3) have enhanced sensitivity. The measured responses towards gases are comparable to or better than those which have been obtained using devices that are more sophisticated. The higher sensitivity and rapid regeneration of the sensor at room temperature provides a clear advancement towards practical molecule detection using graphene-based materials.