Prospective multicenter study of the impact of carbapenem resistance on mortality in Pseudomonas aeruginosa bloodstream infections.

The impact of antimicrobial resistance on clinical outcomes is the subject of ongoing investigations, although uncertainty remains about its contribution to mortality. We investigated the impact of carbapenem resistance on mortality in Pseudomonas aeruginosa bacteremia in a prospective multicenter (10 teaching hospitals) observational study of patients with monomicrobial bacteremia followed up for 30 days after the onset of bacteremia. The adjusted influence of carbapenem resistance on mortality was studied by using Cox regression analysis. Of 632 episodes, 487 (77%) were caused by carbapenem-susceptible P. aeruginosa (CSPA) isolates, and 145 (23%) were caused by carbapenem-resistant P. aeruginosa (CRPA) isolates. The median incidence density of nosocomial CRPA bacteremia was 2.3 episodes per 100,000 patient-days (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.9 to 2.8). The regression demonstrated a time-dependent effect of carbapenem resistance on mortality as well as a significant interaction with the Charlson index: the deleterious effect of carbapenem resistance on mortality decreased with higher Charlson index scores. The impact of resistance on mortality was statistically significant only from the fifth day after the onset of the bacteremia, reaching its peak values at day 30 (adjusted hazard ratio for a Charlson score of 0 at day 30, 9.9 [95% CI, 3.3 to 29.4]; adjusted hazard ratio for a Charlson score of 5 at day 30, 2.6 [95% CI, 0.8 to 8]). This study clarifies the relationship between carbapenem resistance and mortality in patients with P. aeruginosa bacteremia. Although resistance was associated with a higher risk of mortality, the study suggested that this deleterious effect may not be as great during the first days of the bacteremia or in the presence of comorbidities.

Between-year variation in population sex ratio increases with complexity of the breeding system in Hymenoptera.

While adaptive adjustment of sex ratio in the function of colony kin structure and food availability commonly occurs in social Hymenoptera, long-term studies have revealed substantial unexplained between-year variation in sex ratio at the population level. In order to identify factors that contribute to increased between-year variation in population sex ratio, we conducted a comparative analysis across 47 Hymenoptera species differing in their breeding system. We found that between-year variation in population sex ratio steadily increased as one moved from solitary species, to primitively eusocial species, to single-queen eusocial species, to multiple-queen eusocial species. Specifically, between-year variation in population sex ratio was low (6.6% of total possible variation) in solitary species, which is consistent with the view that in solitary species, sex ratio can vary only in response to fluctuations in ecological factors such as food availability. In contrast, we found significantly higher (19.5%) between-year variation in population sex ratio in multiple-queen eusocial species, which supports the view that in these species, sex ratio can also fluctuate in response to temporal changes in social factors such as queen number and queen-worker control over sex ratio, as well as factors influencing caste determination. The simultaneous adjustment of sex ratio in response to temporal fluctuations in ecological and social factors seems to preclude the existence of a single sex ratio optimum. The absence of such an optimum may reflect an additional cost associated with the evolution of complex breeding systems in Hymenoptera societies.

A Nested Case-Control Study of Metabolically Defined Body Size Phenotypes and Risk of Colorectal Cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC).

BACKGROUND Obesity is positively associated with colorectal cancer. Recently, body size subtypes categorised by the prevalence of hyperinsulinaemia have been defined, and metabolically healthy overweight/obese individuals (without hyperinsulinaemia) have been suggested to be at lower risk of cardiovascular disease than their metabolically unhealthy (hyperinsulinaemic) overweight/obese counterparts. Whether similarly variable relationships exist for metabolically defined body size phenotypes and colorectal cancer risk is unknown. METHODS AND FINDINGS The association of metabolically defined body size phenotypes with colorectal cancer was investigated in a case-control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Metabolic health/body size phenotypes were defined according to hyperinsulinaemia status using serum concentrations of C-peptide, a marker of insulin secretion. A total of 737 incident colorectal cancer cases and 737 matched controls were divided into tertiles based on the distribution of C-peptide concentration amongst the control population, and participants were classified as metabolically healthy if below the first tertile of C-peptide and metabolically unhealthy if above the first tertile. These metabolic health definitions were then combined with body mass index (BMI) measurements to create four metabolic health/body size phenotype categories: (1) metabolically healthy/normal weight (BMI < 25 kg/m2), (2) metabolically healthy/overweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2), (3) metabolically unhealthy/normal weight (BMI < 25 kg/m2), and (4) metabolically unhealthy/overweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2). Additionally, in separate models, waist circumference measurements (using the International Diabetes Federation cut-points [≥80 cm for women and ≥94 cm for men]) were used (instead of BMI) to create the four metabolic health/body size phenotype categories. Statistical tests used in the analysis were all two-sided, and a p-value of <0.05 was considered statistically significant. In multivariable-adjusted conditional logistic regression models with BMI used to define adiposity, compared with metabolically healthy/normal weight individuals, we observed a higher colorectal cancer risk among metabolically unhealthy/normal weight (odds ratio [OR] = 1.59, 95% CI 1.10-2.28) and metabolically unhealthy/overweight (OR = 1.40, 95% CI 1.01-1.94) participants, but not among metabolically healthy/overweight individuals (OR = 0.96, 95% CI 0.65-1.42). Among the overweight individuals, lower colorectal cancer risk was observed for metabolically healthy/overweight individuals compared with metabolically unhealthy/overweight individuals (OR = 0.69, 95% CI 0.49-0.96). These associations were generally consistent when waist circumference was used as the measure of adiposity. To our knowledge, there is no universally accepted clinical definition for using C-peptide level as an indication of hyperinsulinaemia. Therefore, a possible limitation of our analysis was that the classification of individuals as being hyperinsulinaemic-based on their C-peptide level-was arbitrary. However, when we used quartiles or the median of C-peptide, instead of tertiles, as the cut-point of hyperinsulinaemia, a similar pattern of associations was observed. CONCLUSIONS These results support the idea that individuals with the metabolically healthy/overweight phenotype (with normal insulin levels) are at lower colorectal cancer risk than those with hyperinsulinaemia. The combination of anthropometric measures with metabolic parameters, such as C-peptide, may be useful for defining strata of the population at greater risk of colorectal cancer.

Genotype 3 is associated with accelerated fibrosis progression in chronic hepatitis C.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: While several risk factors for the histological progression of chronic hepatitis C have been identified, the contribution of HCV genotypes to liver fibrosis evolution remains controversial. The aim of this study was to assess independent predictors for fibrosis progression. METHODS: We identified 1189 patients from the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort database with at least one biopsy prior to antiviral treatment and assessable date of infection. Stage-constant fibrosis progression rate was assessed using the ratio of fibrosis Metavir score to duration of infection. Stage-specific fibrosis progression rates were obtained using a Markov model. Risk factors were assessed by univariate and multivariate regression models. RESULTS: Independent risk factors for accelerated stage-constant fibrosis progression (>0.083 fibrosis units/year) included male sex (OR=1.60, [95% CI 1.21-2.12], P<0.001), age at infection (OR=1.08, [1.06-1.09], P<0.001), histological activity (OR=2.03, [1.54-2.68], P<0.001) and genotype 3 (OR=1.89, [1.37-2.61], P<0.001). Slower progression rates were observed in patients infected by blood transfusion (P=0.02) and invasive procedures or needle stick (P=0.03), compared to those infected by intravenous drug use. Maximum likelihood estimates (95% CI) of stage-specific progression rates (fibrosis units/year) for genotype 3 versus the other genotypes were: F0-->F1: 0.126 (0.106-0.145) versus 0.091 (0.083-0.100), F1-->F2: 0.099 (0.080-0.117) versus 0.065 (0.058-0.073), F2-->F3: 0.077 (0.058-0.096) versus 0.068 (0.057-0.080) and F3-->F4: 0.171 (0.106-0.236) versus 0.112 (0.083-0.142, overall P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This study shows a significant association of genotype 3 with accelerated fibrosis using both stage-constant and stage-specific estimates of fibrosis progression rates. This observation may have important consequences for the management of patients infected with this genotype.

Adaptation to experimental alterations of the operational sex ratio in populations of Drosophila melanogaster.

Theory predicts that males adapt to sperm competition by increasing their investment in testis mass to transfer larger ejaculates. Experimental and comparative data support this prediction. Nevertheless, the relative importance of sperm competition in testis size evolution remains elusive, because experiments vary only sperm competition whereas comparative approaches confound it with other variables, in particular male mating rate. We addressed the relative importance of sperm competition and male mating rate by taking an experimental evolution approach. We subjected populations of Drosophila melanogaster to sex ratios of 1:1, 4:1, and 10:1 (female:male). Female bias decreased sperm competition but increased male mating rate and sperm depletion. After 28 generations of evolution, males from the 10:1 treatment had larger testes than males from other treatments. Thus, testis size evolved in response to mating rate and sperm depletion, not sperm competition. Furthermore, our experiment demonstrated that drift associated with sex ratio distortion limits adaptation; testis size only evolved in populations in which the effect of sex ratio bias on the effective population size had been compensated by increasing the numerical size. We discuss these results with respect to reproductive evolution, genetic drift in natural and experimental populations, and consequences of natural sex ratio distortion.

Allergy to betalactam antibiotics in children: results of a 20-year study

Background: 7 - 20% of the childrenreport suspected allergic reactionsto anti-infectious drugs, thebetalactams being the most frequentlyinvolved. Studies based on skin andchallenge tests have shown that 2 -60% (mean: 10 - 15%) of the childrenwith suspected betalactam hypersensitivitywere really allergic to betalactams,and that the likelihood ofbetalactam hypersensitivity increasedwith the severity and/or the earlinessof the reactions. Methods: We reviewedthe records of 1,865 childrenexplored for suspected betalactam hypersensitivitybetween December1990 and July 2009. The objectivewas to confirm or rule-out the diagnosisof betalactam hypersensitivity, toevaluate the diagnostic value of immediateand non-immediate-readingskin tests with betalactams, and to determinerisk factors for betalactamhypersensitivity. In those childrenskin tests were first performed andthen challenges with the suspectedbetalactams were performed in mostchildren with negative skin test results.Results: 1431 children had acomplete allergological work-up. Fifteen-nine per cent of those childrenwere diagnosed allergic to betalactamsby means of skin tests (7.2%),challenge tests (7.7%), and clinicalhistory (0.9%) respectively. Immediatetype betalactam hypersensitivitywas diagnosed in 3.5% and non-immediatetype in 12.4% of the children.Skin tests diagnosed 86% and 31.6%of immediate and non-immediatesensitizations respectively. Cross-reactivityamong betalactams was diagnosedin 76% of the children with immediatehypersensitivity and in14.7% of the children with non-immediatehypersensitivity. The numberof children diagnosed allergic tobetalactams decreased with time betweenthe reaction and the allergologicalwork-up. Finally, age, sex andpersonal atopy were not significantrisk factors for betalactam allergy.Conclusion: This study, in a verylarge number of children, confirmsthat only a few children with suspectedbetalactam hypersensitivityare really allergic to betalactams, andthat the likelihood of betalactam allergyand cross-reactivity with otherbetalactams increases with the severityand/or the earliness of the reactions.We also confirm that immediate-reading skin tests have a good diagnosticvalue, and that the diagnosticvalue of non-immediate-reading skintests is low, the diagnosis of non-immediatehypersensitivity to betalactamsin children beeing mainly basedon challenge tests.

Adaptively weighted maximum likelihood estimation of discrete distributions

SummaryDiscrete data arise in various research fields, typically when the observations are count data.I propose a robust and efficient parametric procedure for estimation of discrete distributions. The estimation is done in two phases. First, a very robust, but possibly inefficient, estimate of the model parameters is computed and used to indentify outliers. Then the outliers are either removed from the sample or given low weights, and a weighted maximum likelihood estimate (WML) is computed.The weights are determined via an adaptive process such that if the data follow the model, then asymptotically no observation is downweighted.I prove that the final estimator inherits the breakdown point of the initial one, and that its influence function at the model is the same as the influence function of the maximum likelihood estimator, which strongly suggests that it is asymptotically fully efficient.The initial estimator is a minimum disparity estimator (MDE). MDEs can be shown to have full asymptotic efficiency, and some MDEs have very high breakdown points and very low bias under contamination. Several initial estimators are considered, and the performances of the WMLs based on each of them are studied.It results that in a great variety of situations the WML substantially improves the initial estimator, both in terms of finite sample mean square error and in terms of bias under contamination. Besides, the performances of the WML are rather stable under a change of the MDE even if the MDEs have very different behaviors.Two examples of application of the WML to real data are considered. In both of them, the necessity for a robust estimator is clear: the maximum likelihood estimator is badly corrupted by the presence of a few outliers.This procedure is particularly natural in the discrete distribution setting, but could be extended to the continuous case, for which a possible procedure is sketched.RésuméLes données discrètes sont présentes dans différents domaines de recherche, en particulier lorsque les observations sont des comptages.Je propose une méthode paramétrique robuste et efficace pour l'estimation de distributions discrètes. L'estimation est faite en deux phases. Tout d'abord, un estimateur très robuste des paramètres du modèle est calculé, et utilisé pour la détection des données aberrantes (outliers). Cet estimateur n'est pas nécessairement efficace. Ensuite, soit les outliers sont retirés de l'échantillon, soit des faibles poids leur sont attribués, et un estimateur du maximum de vraisemblance pondéré (WML) est calculé.Les poids sont déterminés via un processus adaptif, tel qu'asymptotiquement, si les données suivent le modèle, aucune observation n'est dépondérée.Je prouve que le point de rupture de l'estimateur final est au moins aussi élevé que celui de l'estimateur initial, et que sa fonction d'influence au modèle est la même que celle du maximum de vraisemblance, ce qui suggère que cet estimateur est pleinement efficace asymptotiquement.L'estimateur initial est un estimateur de disparité minimale (MDE). Les MDE sont asymptotiquement pleinement efficaces, et certains d'entre eux ont un point de rupture très élevé et un très faible biais sous contamination. J'étudie les performances du WML basé sur différents MDEs.Le résultat est que dans une grande variété de situations le WML améliore largement les performances de l'estimateur initial, autant en terme du carré moyen de l'erreur que du biais sous contamination. De plus, les performances du WML restent assez stables lorsqu'on change l'estimateur initial, même si les différents MDEs ont des comportements très différents.Je considère deux exemples d'application du WML à des données réelles, où la nécessité d'un estimateur robuste est manifeste : l'estimateur du maximum de vraisemblance est fortement corrompu par la présence de quelques outliers.La méthode proposée est particulièrement naturelle dans le cadre des distributions discrètes, mais pourrait être étendue au cas continu.

Safety of falciparum malaria diagnostic strategy based on rapid diagnostic tests in returning travellers and migrants: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Rapid diagnostic tests for malaria (RDTs) allow accurate diagnosis and prompt treatment. Validation of their usefulness in travellers with fever was needed. The safety of a strategy to diagnose falciparum malaria based on RDT followed by immediate or delayed microscopy reading at first attendance was evaluated in one referral hospital in Switzerland. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted in the outpatient clinic and emergency ward of University Hospital, covering a period of eight years (1999-2007). The study was conducted in the outpatient clinic and emergency ward of University Hospital. All adults suspected of malaria with a diagnostic test performed were included. RDT and microscopy as immediate tests were performed during working hours, and RDT as immediate test and delayed microscopy reading out of laboratory working hours. The main outcome measure was occurrence of specific complications in RDT negative and RDT positive adults. RESULTS: 2,139 patients were recruited. 1987 had both initial RDT and blood smear (BS) result negative. Among those, 2/1987 (0.1%) developed uncomplicated malaria with both RDT and BS positive on day 1 and day 6 respectively. Among the 152 patients initially malaria positive, 137 had both RDT and BS positive, four only BS positive and five only RDT positive (PCR confirmed) (six had only one test performed). None of the four initially RDT negative/BS positive and none of the five initially BS negative/RDT positive developed severe malaria while 6/137 of both RDT and BS positive did so. The use of RDT allowed a reduction of a median of 2.1 hours to get a first malaria test result. CONCLUSIONS: A malaria diagnostic strategy based on RDTs and a delayed BS is safe in non-immune populations, and shortens the time to first malaria test result.