SITC 26th annual meeting - summary.

ABSTRACT: The 26th annual meeting of the Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer took place in Bethesda on November 4 to 6, 2011 and was organized by Charles G. Drake (Johns Hopkins University) Dolores J. Schendel (Helmholtz Zentrum Muenchen - German Research Center for Environmental Health Institute of Molecular Immunology), Jeffrey Schlom (National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health), and Jedd D. Wolchok (Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center). It was an event marked by a number of extraordinary circumstances: it attracted a record attendance of 805 participants from 24 different countries. The gathering came in the wake of great as well as very sad news for the tumor immunology community. Good news included the approval of anti-CTLA-4 as a therapy for metastatic melanoma in April and the announcement in early October of the Nobel Prize in Physiology and Medicine awarded to pioneering studies in the field of immunology. Indeed, one part of the prize went to Dr. Bruce Beutler, Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, USA and Dr. Jules Hoffman, Institute for Molecular Cell Biology, Strasbourg, France, for their discoveries in innate immunity and the other part to Dr. Ralph Steinman, The Rockfeller University, New York, for his discovery of dendritic cells. Sad news was the losses of two giants in the field. Jürg Tschopp of the University of Lausanne in March and Ralph Steinman, who passed away just three days before his Nobel Prize announcement. The loss of these two charismatic scientific leaders was particularly sad for the Annual Meeting as both J. Tschopp and R. Steinman were confirmed speakers at this meeting: the former to deliver the keynote lecture and the latter as recipient of the Richard V. Smalley prize.

Exchange rate predictability

The main goal of this article is to provide an answer to the question: "Does anything forecast exchange rates, and if so, which variables?". It is well known thatexchange rate fluctuations are very difficult to predict using economic models, andthat a random walk forecasts exchange rates better than any economic model (theMeese and Rogoff puzzle). However, the recent literature has identified a series of fundamentals/methodologies that claim to have resolved the puzzle. This article providesa critical review of the recent literature on exchange rate forecasting and illustratesthe new methodologies and fundamentals that have been recently proposed in an up-to-date, thorough empirical analysis. Overall, our analysis of the literature and thedata suggests that the answer to the question: "Are exchange rates predictable?" is,"It depends" -on the choice of predictor, forecast horizon, sample period, model, andforecast evaluation method. Predictability is most apparent when one or more of thefollowing hold: the predictors are Taylor rule or net foreign assets, the model is linear, and a small number of parameters are estimated. The toughest benchmark is therandom walk without drift.