A space-time hybrid hourly rainfall model for derived flood frequency analysis

For derived flood frequency analysis based on hydrological modelling long continuous precipitation time series with high temporal resolution are needed. Often, the observation network with recording rainfall gauges is poor, especially regarding the limited length of the available rainfall time series. Stochastic precipitation synthesis is a good alternative either to extend or to regionalise rainfall series to provide adequate input for long-term rainfall-runoff modelling with subsequent estimation of design floods. Here, a new two step procedure for stochastic synthesis of continuous hourly space-time rainfall is proposed and tested for the extension of short observed precipitation time series. First, a single-site alternating renewal model is presented to simulate independent hourly precipitation time series for several locations. The alternating renewal model describes wet spell durations, dry spell durations and wet spell intensities using univariate frequency distributions separately for two seasons. The dependence between wet spell intensity and duration is accounted for by 2-copulas. For disaggregation of the wet spells into hourly intensities a predefined profile is used. In the second step a multi-site resampling procedure is applied on the synthetic point rainfall event series to reproduce the spatial dependence structure of rainfall. Resampling is carried out successively on all synthetic event series using simulated annealing with an objective function considering three bivariate spatial rainfall characteristics. In a case study synthetic precipitation is generated for some locations with short observation records in two mesoscale catchments of the Bode river basin located in northern Germany. The synthetic rainfall data are then applied for derived flood frequency analysis using the hydrological model HEC-HMS. The results show good performance in reproducing average and extreme rainfall characteristics as well as in reproducing observed flood frequencies. The presented model has the potential to be used for ungauged locations through regionalisation of the model parameters.

Obligation des États de coopérer en droit international des cours d’eau transfrontaliers : état du droit et étude du cas Chinois

Le principe de coopération est considéré depuis longtemps comme l’une des pierres angulaires du droit international, toutefois, l’existence d’une obligation de coopérer en droit international reste encore controversée. Les ressources en eau, à cause de leur fluidité et de leurs multiples usages, démontrent toujours l’interdépendance humaine. En matière de cours d’eau transfrontaliers, la Convention de New York inclut explicitement dans son texte l’obligation générale de coopérer comme l’un de ses trois principes fondamentaux. Il nous incombe alors de voir quelle obligation de coopérer les États souverains s’imposent dans leurs pratiques ? Pour répondre à cette question, nous procédons tout d’abord à une étude positiviste du contenu normatif de l’obligation de coopérer. Nous constatons que l’incorporation de la notion de l’obligation de coopérer dans le principe de la souveraineté est une tendance manifeste du droit international qui a évolué du droit de coexistence composé principalement des règles d’abstention, au droit de coopération qui comporte essentiellement des obligations positives de facere, dont la plus représentative est l’obligation de coopérer. Néanmoins, il n’existe pas de modèle unique d’application pour tous les États, chaque bassin disposant de son propre régime coopératif. Pour mesurer l’ampleur des régimes coopératifs, nous étudions cinq paramètres : le champ d’application, les règles substantielles, les règles procédurales, les arrangements institutionnels et le règlement des différends. Quatres modèles de coopération ressortent : le mécanisme consultatif (l’Indus), le mécanisme communicateur (le Mékong), le mécanisme de coordination (le Rhin) et le mécanisme d’action conjointe (le fleuve Sénégal). Pour ce qui est de la Chine, il s’agit de l’État d’amont en voie de développement le plus important dans le monde qui a longtemps été critiqué pour son approche unilatérale dans le développement des eaux transfrontières. Nous ne pouvons pas cependant passer sous silence les pratiques de coopération qu’elle a développées avec ses voisins. Quelle est son interprétation de cette obligation générale de coopérer ? Notre étude des pratiques de la Chine nous aide, en prenant du recul, à mieux comprendre tous les aspects de cette obligation de coopérer en droit international. Afin d’expliquer les raisons qui se cachent derrière son choix de mode de coopération, nous introduisons une analyse constructiviste qui est plus explicative que descriptive. Nous soutenons que ce sont les identités de la Chine qui ont déterminé son choix de coopération en matière de cours d’eau transfrontaliers. Notre étude en vient à la conclusion que même s’il y a des règles généralement reconnues, l’obligation de coopérer reste une règle émergente en droit international coutumier. Ses modes d’application sont en réalité une construction sociale qui évolue et qui peut varier énormément selon les facteurs culturels, historiques ou économiques des États riverains, en d’autres mots, selon les identités de ces États. La Chine est un État d’amont en voie de développement qui continue à insister sur le principe de la souveraineté. Par conséquent, elle opte pour son propre mécanisme consultatif de coopération pour l’utilisation des ressources en eau transfrontalières. Néanmoins, avec l’évolution de ses identités en tant que superpuissance émergente, nous pouvons probablement espérer qu’au lieu de rechercher un pouvoir hégémonique et d’appliquer une stratégie unilatérale sur l’utilisation des ressources en eau transfrontalières, la Chine adoptera une stratégie plus coopérative et plus participative dans l’avenir.

As estelas decoradas da Idade do Bronze Final do território português : sistematização e problemáticas sócio-culturais

O objectivo deste trabalho é criar acervo documental correspondente às catorze estelas funerárias da Idade do Bronze Final encontradas em território português, e, contribuir para o estudo das comunidades humanas que as criaram, tendo em conta que estas manifestações devem reflectir questões de índole social, económica e ideológica. A iconografia presente nestes monumentos e a sua distribuição, revelaram um núcleo de características predominantemente atlânticas, em estelas de sub-tipos mais recuados, localizadas nas regiões de Vila Real em Trás-os-Montes e Beira Interior que, por sua vez, se prolonga na Extremadura Espanhola. A concentração de monumentos de tipologia mais tardia e com influências do Mediterrâneo Oriental, verifica-se em zonas a sul, no Alentejo e Algarve e ao longo da bacia fluvial do rio Guadalquivir, em território espanhol. Estes factos corroboram assim, aspectos propostos nos anos setenta do século XX, por M. V. Gomes e J. P. Monteiro, que valorizaram as origens diferenciadas para os elementos iconográficos das estelas decoradas da Idade do Bronze Final, da Península Ibérica e ofereceram evolução cronológica de tais monumentos.

Aerial line transect survey to estimate abundance of marsh deer (Blastocerus dichotomus) (Illiger, 1815)

A população de cervo-do-pantanal (Blastocerus dichotomus) está drasticamente reduzida no Brasil. O nosso objetivo foi o de estimar a abundância do cervo-do-pantanal na bacia do Rio Paraná e discutir a metodologia aplicada. Os resultados darão suporte para uma análise do impacto do enchimento da represa de Porto Primavera sobre essa população. Sessenta e nove animais foram registrados através de sobrevôo utilizando-se a metodologia de transecção linear com amostragem das distâncias. Os dados não corrigidos resultaram em uma densidade estimada de 0,0035ind/ha e uma população de 636 indivíduos. A correção de g para os animais que não foram vistos apresentou uma densidade de 0,0049 ind/ha e uma abundância de 896 (CV=0,27) indivíduos. A metodologia foi aplicada com sucesso na estimativa de cervo-do-pantanal. Esse resultado é importante para avaliarmos a população do cervo-do-pantanal na área e para futuramente analisarmos o impacto do enchimento da represa.

Dinâmica do desflorestamento e uso das terras na região dos formadores do rio Xingu.

Because of the occupation occurred in the last thirty years at Xingu river basin, this region has been suffering a large deforestation pressure, especially on its headwaters areas. This study aims to apply GIS techniques to evaluate how land use change has influenced the deforestation dynamics of Xingu water basin in Mato Grosso State. For that, a GIS based study was carried out were the deforestation data for the period between 2000 and 2005 was spatially integrated with settlement areas, indigenous lands, sites of mineral deposits and prospect areas. From this spatially integration, it was possible to analyze statistically how the deforestation has manifested on each kind of occupation, considering the original forest area. The techniques used, including inventory and database organization on GIS environment, and spatial analysis tools made it possible to analyze the deforestation in the Xingu basin in Mato Grosso State between the period of 2000 and 2005, and identify the most affected areas, considering different land uses.

Análise da produção de carga líquida e sólida na bacia do ribeirão do Gama- DF através do modelo SWAT

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Ciências Humanas, Departamento de Geografia, 2016.

Entre discursos e práticas : as relações entre estados (pluri) nacionais e povos indígenas no Brasil e na Bolívia a partir do direito de consulta

Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Ciências Sociais, Centro de Pesquisa e Pós-Graduação sobre as Américas, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Estudos Comparados sobre as Américas, 2015.

Ecologia da ictiofauna de um córrego de cabeceira da bacia do alto rio Paraná, Brasil

Ecological studies were conducted in the ichthyofauna of Cedro, a small headwater stream located in a degraded area of State of São Paulo, Brazil, situated in the upper Paraná River basin. These are the results of two non-consecutive years observations and collections in two biotopes of that stream: a pool and a rapid. The ecological characteristics studied change in space and time. The present richness of species is high (21 species), nine of which are constant, six accessory and six accidental. The diversity is low (0.69 to 2.38), and the numeric predominance, from one to three species, occurred in both biotopes. The most frequent species are Poecilia reticulata (Peters, 1859) (28.1%), Corydoras cf. aeneus (Gill, 1858) (20.3%) and Hypostomus cf. ancistroides (Ihering, 1911) (19.8%). The density ranges from 0.7 to 19.8 specimens/m³. The similarity index indicates high similarity between the ichthyofauna (45.0% to 95.0%) inside the same or contiguous biotopes. The evenness (0.46 to 1.0) is comparable to those found in similar studies carried out in other streams.

Estudo de modelos composicionais de óleo na injeção contínua de vapor

The objective of the thermal recovery is to heat the resevoir and the oil in it to increase its recovery. In the Potiguar river basin there are located several heavy oil reservoirs whose primary recovery energy provides us with a little oil flow, which makes these reservoirs great candidates for application of a method of recovery advanced of the oil, especially the thermal. The steam injection can occur on a cyclical or continuous manner. The continuous steam injection occurs through injection wells, which in its vicinity form a zone of steam that expands itself, having as a consequence the displace of the oil with viscosity and mobility improved towards the producing wells. Another possible mechanism of displacement of oil in reservoirs subjected to continuous injection of steam is the distillation of oil by steam, which at high temperatures; their lighter fractions can be vaporized by changing the composition of the oil produced, of the oil residual or to shatter in the amount of oil produced. In this context, this paper aims to study the influence of compositional models in the continuous injection of steam through in the analysis of some parameters such as flow injection steam and temperature of injection. Were made various leading comparative analysis taking the various models of fluid, varying from a good elementary, with 03 pseudocomponents to a modeling of fluids with increasing numbers of pseudocomponents. A commercial numerical simulator was used for the study from a homogeneous reservoir model with similar features to those found in northeastern Brazil. Some conclusions as the increasing of the simulation time with increasing number of pseudocomponents, the significant influence of flow injection on cumulative production of oil and little influence of the number of pseudocomponents in the flows and cumulative production of oil were found

Variação temporal da Comunidade de macroinvertebrados bentônicos em um riacho intermitente do semiárido brasileiro

In Brazilian semiarid region, the majority of water bodies are temporary and the biodiversity in these ecosystems is poorly known. The goal of this study was to describe the temporal variation of benthic macroinvertebrates in an intermittent stream in the Brazilian semiarid region. From March to July of 2009, surveys of benthic macroinvertebrates and water physiochemical parameters were done in a first order stream located at Piranhas-Açu River basin. 25 macroinvertebrates families were found, 21 belonging to Insecta class. The chironomids were the most abundant group during all study period and were represented by 19 genus. The largest densities and taxonomic richness were seen in the drying phase of the stream while the smallest values were found in the period with the heaviest rainfalls ( wet phase ). Only the families Chironomidae and Ceratopogonidae were found during all study period, suggesting that these groups have better adaptations to support floods and droughts. Furthermore, these two groups seemed to be pioneering in this stream. Among the chironomids, Paratendipes dominated the period of floods while Tanytarsus were more abundant in the drying phase . This study showed that hydrological fluctuation is the main force influencing the macroinvertebrate community in this stream, therefore, efforts seeking the conservation and management of Brazilian semiarid water bodies should consider this high natural variability in flow regime