Automatic Comparison and Evaluation of Impressions Left by a Firearm on Fired Cartridge Cases

Recent years have been characterized by a series of publications in the field of firearms investigation questioning the reliability and objectivity of such examination. This research investigates new solutions to decrease the subjective component affecting the evaluation that follows the comparison of impressions left by a firearm on the surface of spent cartridge cases. An automatic comparison system based on 3D measurements has been developed and coupled to a bivariate evaluative model allowing assigning likelihood ratios. Based on a dataset of 79 pistols (all SIG Sauer 9 mm Luger caliber), the system shows a very high discriminating power and the LRs that it provides are very indicative of the true state under both the prosecution and the defense propositions. For example, likelihood ratios exceeding a billion are predominantly obtained when impressions originating from the same source are compared. The system is also characterized by relatively low rates (≤1%) of misleading evidence depending on the firearm considered.

Robust Estimators of the Generalized Log-Gamma Distribution

We propose robust estimators of the generalized log-gamma distribution and, more generally, of location-shape-scale families of distributions. A (weighted) Q tau estimator minimizes a tau scale of the differences between empirical and theoretical quantiles. It is n(1/2) consistent; unfortunately, it is not asymptotically normal and, therefore, inconvenient for inference. However, it is a convenient starting point for a one-step weighted likelihood estimator, where the weights are based on a disparity measure between the model density and a kernel density estimate. The one-step weighted likelihood estimator is asymptotically normal and fully efficient under the model. It is also highly robust under outlier contamination. Supplementary materials are available online.

Krikothyreotomie mit dem "Quicktrach"-Koniotomiebesteck [Cricothyreotomy using the Quicktrach coniotomy instrument set].

Percutaneous cricothyroidotomy may be a lifesaving procedure for airway obstruction, which cannot be relieved by endotracheal intubation and can be performed with specially designed instruments. A new device, the "Quicktrach", was evaluated by an anatomical preparation, flow and resistance measurements, and puncture of the cricothyroid membrane in 55 corpses. The size of the parts of the instrument (needle, plastic cannula, depth gauge) in relation to the size of the larynx is adequate, thus there is little likelihood of perforation of the posterior wall of the larynx. Resistance of the plastic cannula is sufficiently low to allow for adequate ventilation. The duration of time until the cannula is positioned properly in the trachea is significantly shorter, when an incision prior to the puncture is done (83 +/- 88 seconds without incision versus 35 +/- 41 seconds with incision; mean +/- SD). The "Quicktrach" is easy to apply even by inexperienced persons. The incidence of damage to the larynx (lesions including fractures of the thyroid, cricoid and 1. tracheal cartilage in 18%; soft tissue injury in 9%) is relatively high, however considering the live saving character of the procedure these numbers appear to be acceptable. Technical problems which occur with the use of the device are discussed and suggestions for improvement are made.

Predicting Non Return to Work after Orthopaedic Trauma: The Wallis Occupational Rehabilitation RisK (WORRK) Model.

BACKGROUND: Workers with persistent disabilities after orthopaedic trauma may need occupational rehabilitation. Despite various risk profiles for non-return-to-work (non-RTW), there is no available predictive model. Moreover, injured workers may have various origins (immigrant workers), which may either affect their return to work or their eligibility for research purposes. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a predictive model that estimates the likelihood of non-RTW after occupational rehabilitation using predictors which do not rely on the worker's background. METHODS: Prospective cohort study (3177 participants, native (51%) and immigrant workers (49%)) with two samples: a) Development sample with patients from 2004 to 2007 with Full and Reduced Models, b) External validation of the Reduced Model with patients from 2008 to March 2010. We collected patients' data and biopsychosocial complexity with an observer rated interview (INTERMED). Non-RTW was assessed two years after discharge from the rehabilitation. Discrimination was assessed by the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) and calibration was evaluated with a calibration plot. The model was reduced with random forests. RESULTS: At 2 years, the non-RTW status was known for 2462 patients (77.5% of the total sample). The prevalence of non-RTW was 50%. The full model (36 items) and the reduced model (19 items) had acceptable discrimination performance (AUC 0.75, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.78 and 0.74, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.76, respectively) and good calibration. For the validation model, the discrimination performance was acceptable (AUC 0.73; 95% CI 0.70 to 0.77) and calibration was also adequate. CONCLUSIONS: Non-RTW may be predicted with a simple model constructed with variables independent of the patient's education and language fluency. This model is useful for all kinds of trauma in order to adjust for case mix and it is applicable to vulnerable populations like immigrant workers.

Cannabis use and other illicit drug use: Do subjective experiences during first cannabis use increase the probability of using illicit drug use?

Background and aims: Few studies have examined whether subjective experiences during first cannabis use are related to other illicit drug (OID) use. This study investigated this topic. Methods: Baseline data from a representative sample of young Swiss men was obtained from an ongoing Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (N ¼ 5753). Logistic regressions were performed to examine the relationships between cannabis use and of subjective experiences during first cannabis use with 15 OID. Results: Positive experiences increased the likelihood of using hallucinogens (hallucinogens, salvia divinorum, spice; p50.015), stimulants (speed, ecstasy, cocaine, amphetamines/methamphetamines; p50.006) and also poppers, research chemicals, GHB/GBL, and crystal meth (p50.049). Sniffed drugs (poppers, solvents for sniffing) and ''hard'' drugs (heroin, ketamine, research chemicals, GHB/GBL and crystal meth) were more likely to be used by participants who experienced negative feelings on first use of cannabis (p50.034). Conclusion: Subjective feelings seemed to amplify the association of cannabis with OID. The risk increased for drugs with effects resembling feelings experienced on first cannabis use. Negative experiences should also be a concern, as they were associated with increased risk of using the ''hardest'' illicit drugs.

Análisis de modelos de perfil del fuste y estudio de la cilindricidad para tres clones de chopo (Populus x euramericana) en Navarra

El presente trabajo tiene por objetivo principal analizar tres funciones de perfil del fuste sobre tres clones de Populus x euramericana (Canadá Blanco, I-214 y MC) en la Comunidad Foral de Navarra para elaborar una tarifa de cubicación con clasificación de volumen. Para minimizar el efecto de la autocorrelación entre los residuos se emplea una estructura de error continua autorregresiva de orden 2 o de orden 3 en función del clon analizado. Por otra parte, se compara el coeficiente local de forma de cada uno de los clones estudiados mediante dos metodologías: el análisis de la varianza de la estimación individual de dicho coeficiente y el contraste del estadístico de máxima verosimilitud entre ajustes, resultando ser el clon Canadá el más cónico de los tres. Los datos utilizados provienen de 143 chopos de plantaciones coetáneas y con mismo marco de plantación (marco real de 4,5 × 4,5 m).