Impact of diagonal cumulation rule on FTA utilization : evidence from bilateral and multilateral FTAs between Japan and Thailand

In this paper, we empirically investigate the effect of diagonal cumulation on free trade agreement (FTA) utilization by exploring Thai exports to Japan under two kinds of FTA schemes. While the one scheme adopts bilateral cumulation, the other scheme does diagonal cumulation. Comparing trade under these two kinds of FTAs, we can examine the effect of diagonal cumulation without relying on not only the variation in cumulation rules across country pairs but also the variation across years. In short, our estimates do not suffer from biases from time-variant elements and country pair-specific elements. As a result, our estimates show around 4% trade creation effect of diagonal cumulation, which is much smaller than the estimates in the previous studies (around 15%).

What motivates female operators to enter the garment industry in Pakistan in the post-MFA period?

Pakistan's knitwear exports had been struggling since the quota phase-out until 2009. A particular feature of Pakistan's garment industry is that hiring more male sewing operators at piece rates. Recently, a few surviving knitwear factories have adopted a strategy of shifting from male piece-rate operators to salaried female operators. In Pakistan, female participation in general workforce is very limited and hiring salaried female operators requires management effort and expertise. However, even in the factories with such management skills, household factors prevent females from working outside because Pakistani culture disrespects women working in factories. Our survey reveals that financial motives compel female household members to work outside their homes and that female operators contribute substantially to their households' finances.

Myanmar's two decades of partial transition to a market economy : a negative legacy for the new government

Despite more than two decades of transition from a centrally planned to a market-oriented economy, Myanmar’s economic transition is still only partly complete. The government’s initial strategy for dealing with the swelling deficits of the state economic enterprises (SEEs) was to put them under direct control in order to scrutinize their expenditures. This policy change postponed restructuring and exacerbated the soft budget constraint problem of the SEEs. While the installation of a new government in March 2011 has increased prospects for economic development, sustainable growth still requires full-scale structural reform of the SEEs and institutional infrastructure building. Myanmar can learn from the gradual approaches to economic transition in China and Vietnam, where partial reforms weakened further impetus for reforms.

Export platform foreign direct investment : theory and evidence

This paper proposes a model that accounts for “export platform” FDI – a form of FDI that is common in the data but rarely discussed in the theoretical literature. Unlike the previous literature, this paper’s theory nests all the typical modes of supply, including exports, horizontal and vertical FDI, horizontal and vertical export platform FDI. The theory yields the testable hypothesis that a decrease in either inter-regional or intra-regional trade costs induces firms to choose export platform FDI. The empirical analysis provides descriptive statistics which point to large proportions of third country exports of US FDI, and an econometric analysis, whose results are in line with the model’s predictions. The last section suggests policy implications for nations seeking to attract FDI.

Parameterization of applied general equilibrium models with flexible trade specifications based on the Armington, Krugman, and Melitz models

This paper explains how the Armington-Krugman-Melitz supermodel developed by Dixon and Rimmer can be parameterized, and demonstrates that only two kinds of additional information are required in order to extend a standard trade model to include Melitz-type monopolistic competition and heterogeneous firms. Further, it is shown how specifying too much additional information leads to violations of the model constraints, necessitating adjustment and reconciliation of the data. Once a Melitz-type model is parameterized, a Krugman-type model can also be parameterized using the calibrated values in the Melitz-type model without any additional data. Sample code for the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) has also been prepared to promote the innovative supermodel in the AGE community.

Post-1988 civil-military relations in Myanmar

This paper explores the development of civil–military relations in Myanmar since 1988. After the Tatmadaw (Myanmar Armed Forces) took over the state by means of a coup d’état in 1988, the top generals ruled the country without recourse to significant formal political institutions such as a constitution, elections and parliament. A unique authoritarian regime, where political power was predominantly under the military’s influence, lasted for more than 20 years in the country. It seemed to many observers that the military regime was highly durable and that its dictator, General Than Shwe, had no intention of altering the highly repressive character of the political system. However, a new leader, President Thein Sein, who came to power in March 2011, has decided to implement some political and economic reforms that could undermine the Tatmadaw’s dominant role in politics and the economy. This paper examines the background to this sudden political change in Myanmar, focusing on the relationship between its dictator, the military and the state. This paper’s main argument is that Than Shwe has carefully prepared the transition of 2011 as a generational change in the Tatmadaw and in state leadership. The argument is also made that the challenges created by Thein Sein can be understood as a result of his redefinition of national security and balancing of security-centralism with state-led developmentalism.

The misconception of political lessons : how UMNO perceives the fall of LDP in Japan

2012 marks the thirtieth anniversary of Malaysia’s Look East Policy (LEP). This article argues that the strong relationship between Malaysia and Japan is stimulated by symbiotic ties binding together both countries’ respective major political parties, viz. the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). UMNO, especially under the leadership of Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad (1981-2003), derived political lessons from developments affecting LDP in Japan. Two forms of lessons may be discerned. First, emulation of Japan’s success in economic development, which become the basis of LEP launched in 1981. Second, on which our article focuses, lessons from the failure of LDP to retain power twice in 1993 and 2009. Since 1993, DP’s defeat has been a poignant reminder for UMNO to be in alert mode in facing any electoral possibility. When LDP was again ousted from power in 2009, UMNO was a most psychologically affected party owing to the unprecedented setback it suffered at Malaysia’s Twelfth General Elections (GE) of 2008. Yet, although LDP’s reversal of fortunes served as a landmark for UMNO in situating changes to its trajectory since 1999, the analogical reasoning and political lessons applied by UMNO leaders were, to a large extent, flawed. Arguably, politicians frequently do misjudge in analogising between different situations which at a glance seem to be comparable.

アジア経済研究所図書館所蔵の統計資料コレクションと開発途上地域の統計事情 : 連載「新興地域の統計事情」を始めるにあたって

アジア経済研究所図書館では，50年以上にわたって開発地域の統計資料を網羅的に収集してきた。本稿では，これら資料の収集方法，コレクションの特色，整備・提供方法を説明するとともに，これまでの蔵書構築等を通じて把握してきた開発途上地域の公式統計の整備・公開状況と最近の動向について報告する。また，国際機関による国際比較統計の編纂状況と近年のオープン・データ政策について簡単に概説する。参考資料として主要な国際機関の統計情報一覧と調べ方ガイドを掲載する。

Black economic empowerment in the South African agricultural sector : a case study of the wine industry

This paper explores the extent and forms of black economic empowerment (BEE) in the South African agricultural sector through a case study of the wine industry in the Western Cape. Compared to the mining and fisheries sectors, the progress of BEE in the agricultural sector is still in the early stage. However, various forms of black entry into the wine industry, not limited to BEE deals by large corporations, began to emerge, especially since the enactment of the Broad-based Black Economic Empowerment Act (BBBEE Act), Act 53 of 2003. This paper identifies two types of BEE wineries as unique forms of black entry into the wine industry and investigates in detail their features, backgrounds and challenges by referring to several prominent examples of each type of BEE winery.

Pro-poor growth or poverty trap? : estimating intergenerational income mobility in rural Philippines

Using an intergenerational database covering nearly a quarter of a century, we explored the degree of intergenerational income mobility among individuals who had grown up in rural Central Luzon, the Philippines. We found that the intergenerational income elasticity is significantly lower than unity, at roughly 0.23, indicating that the average income growth rate is higher for children born to poorer families. The detailed analysis, however, revealed that its magnitude significantly varies across percentiles in a U-shape. The results provide supporting evidence of multiple equilibria or poverty trap.

Outward FDI from developing countries : a case of Chinese firms in South Africa

Outward foreign direct investment (FDI) from developing countries is increasing. In the research on FDI, it has been considered that only competitive and productive firms can invest in foreign countries. However, since the differences in competitiveness and productivity between multinational enterprises (MNEs) from developed and developing countries have not been explicitly investigated, we cannot say whether MNEs from developing countries can or cannot survive in competition with MNEs from developed countries as well as against competitive and productive indigenous firms in host countries. To examine the activities of MNEs from developing countries, this study investigates Chinese firms in South Africa. It reveals that in order to compensate for the weak brand recognition of Chinese products and to expand sales, Chinese firms have mainly been making products that are sold under the brand names of indigenous South African firms. Chinese firms have expanded their business in South Africa relying on the business resources of indigenous firms in the host country. This indicates that business with indigenous firms is significant for MNEs from developing countries in boosting competitiveness.

Stigma, social relationship and HIV testing in the workplace : evidence from South Africa

This paper explores whether a worker's unwillingness to make his/her HIV-positive status or test-taking experience known by colleagues impedes his/her decision to test for HIV. After analyzing the new survey data provided by employees working for a large multinational enterprise in South Africa (2009-2010), this study finds that this unwillingness is negatively associated with test-taking (at the enterprise's on-site clinic) of workers who are extensively networked with close colleagues (i.e., know their phone numbers). It appears that the expected disutility associated with HIV/AIDS-related stigma prohibits test uptake. When introducing HIV counseling and testing programs into a corporate sector, providing all workers with an excuse to test in the workplace and/or inducing them to privately test outside the workplace may be effective in encouraging the uptake.

Growth-cycle nexus

This research sheds light on the negative correlation between economic growth and business cycle in less developed economies. Whereas many previous studies explain the negative correlation from a viewpoint in which business cycle affects economic growth, we attempt to present a hypothesis based on the other influence direction in which economic growth affects business cycle. We investigate the validity of the hypothesis using two methods: econometric analysis and numerical analysis. We find that the econometric analysis supports our hypothesis. The numerical analysis shows that the effect of the proposed hypothesis produces the negative correlation between economic growth and business cycle.

Re-thinking of "Chintanakan Mai" (new thinking) : new perspective for understanding Lao PDR

To date, many previous studies have viewed "Chintanakan Mai" (New Thinking), which was introduced in 1986, as one of the most important factors required for understanding present-day Laos. They tend to see the year 1986 as a watershed in Lao history and divide the history after 1975 into two periods before and after 1986: a period of socialism and a period of reform or market economy, respectively. Therefore, they are likely to see the current changes in Laos as the result or achievement of the reform started in 1986. The year 1986 is always a starting point for understanding Laos today. However, I suggest a different perspective and attempt to re-examine "Chintanakan Mai." "Chintanakan Mai" is not a watershed in Lao history, but rather a temporary slogan to advance postwar reconstruction. In this paper, I try to establish a new perspective for understanding Laos today.

A note on ethnic return migration policy in Kazakhstan : changing priorities and a growing dilemma

This paper offers a brief analysis of the legal aspects of the ethnic return migration policy of Kazakhstan, a post-Soviet Central Asian state that has been active in seeking ties with its diaspora since independence. This paper examines the definition of oralman (repatriates) and the establishment of a quota on the number of Kazakh immigrants who are eligible for government funds to show how the rationale and preferences in repatriation policy have changed over the years. By focusing on changes in migration-related legislation in the late 2000s and early 2010s, the paper notes that two key goals of Kazakhstan’s migration policy are not necessarily consistent with each other: the promotion of an ethnically based nation-building project by encouraging the "return" of co-ethnics living abroad, and building a workforce that is best suited for the development of the state’s economy.