Transport energy demand: techno-economic modelling and scenarios for Irish climate policy

The case for energy policy modelling is strong in Ireland, where stringent EU climate targets are projected to be overshot by 2015. Policy targets aiming to deliver greenhouse gas and renewable energy targets have been made, but it is unclear what savings are to be achieved and from which sectors. Concurrently, the growth of personal mobility has caused an astonishing increase in CO2 emissions from private cars in Ireland, a 37% rise between 2000 and 2008, and while there have been improvements in the efficiency of car technology, there was no decrease in the energy intensity of the car fleet in the same period. This thesis increases the capacity for evidenced-based policymaking in Ireland by developing techno-economic transport energy models and using them to analyse historical trends and to project possible future scenarios. A central focus of this thesis is to understand the effect of the car fleet‘s evolving technical characteristics on energy demand. A car stock model is developed to analyse this question from three angles: Firstly, analysis of car registration and activity data between 2000 and 2008 examines the trends which brought about the surge in energy demand. Secondly, the car stock is modelled into the future and is used to populate a baseline “no new policy” scenario, looking at the impact of recent (2008-2011) policy and purchasing developments on projected energy demand and emissions. Thirdly, a range of technology efficiency, fuel switching and behavioural scenarios are developed up to 2025 in order to indicate the emissions abatement and renewable energy penetration potential from alternative policy packages. In particular, an ambitious car fleet electrification target for Ireland is examined. The car stock model‘s functionality is extended by linking it with other models: LEAP-Ireland, a bottom-up energy demand model for all energy sectors in the country; Irish TIMES, a linear optimisation energy system model; and COPERT, a pollution model. The methodology is also adapted to analyse trends in freight energy demand in a similar way. Finally, this thesis addresses the gap in the representation of travel behaviour in linear energy systems models. A novel methodology is developed and case studies for Ireland and California are presented using the TIMES model. Transport Energy

Time-dependent transport through molecular junctions.

We investigate transport properties of molecular junctions under two types of bias--a short time pulse or an ac bias--by combining a solution for Green's functions in the time domain with electronic structure information coming from ab initio density functional calculations. We find that the short time response depends on lead structure, bias voltage, and barrier heights both at the molecule-lead contacts and within molecules. Under a low frequency ac bias, the electron flow either tracks or leads the bias signal (resistive or capacitive response) depending on whether the junction is perfectly conducting or not. For high frequency, the current lags the bias signal due to the kinetic inductance. The transition frequency is an intrinsic property of the junctions.

Heterogeneities in fullerene nanoparticle aggregates affecting reactivity, bioactivity, and transport.

Properties of nanomaterial suspensions are typically summarized by average values for the purposes of characterizing these materials and interpreting experimental results. We show in this work that the heterogeneity in aqueous suspensions of fullerene C(60) aggregates (nC(60)) must be taken into account for the purposes of predicting nanomaterial transport, exposure, and biological activity. The production of reactive oxygen species (ROS), microbial inactivation, and the mobility of the aggregates of the nC(60) in a silicate porous medium all increased as suspensions were fractionated to enrich with smaller aggregates by progressive membrane filtration. These size-dependent differences are attributed to an increasing degree of hydroxylation of nC(60) aggregates with decreasing size. As the quantity and influence of these more reactive fractions may increase with time, experiments evaluating fullerene transport and toxicity end points must take into account the evolution and heterogeneity of fullerene suspensions.

Coordination of platinum therapeutic agents to met-rich motifs of human copper transport protein1.

Platinum therapeutic agents are widely used in the treatment of several forms of cancer. Various mechanisms for the transport of the drugs have been proposed including passive diffusion across the cellular membrane and active transport via proteins. The copper transport protein Ctr1 is responsible for high affinity copper uptake but has also been implicated in the transport of cisplatin into cells. Human hCtr1 contains two methionine-rich Mets motifs on its extracellular N-terminus that are potential platinum-binding sites: the first one encompasses residues 7-14 with amino acid sequence Met-Gly-Met-Ser-Tyr-Met-Asp-Ser and the second one spans residues 39-46 with sequence Met-Met-Met-Met-Pro-Met-Thr-Phe. In these studies, we use liquid chromatography and mass spectrometry to compare the binding interactions between cisplatin, carboplatin and oxaliplatin with synthetic peptides corresponding to hCtr1 Mets motifs. The interactions of cisplatin and carboplatin with Met-rich motifs that contain three or more methionines result in removal of the carrier ligands of both platinum complexes. In contrast, oxaliplatin retains its cyclohexyldiamine ligand upon platinum coordination to the peptide.

The effects of sleep hypoxia on coagulant factors and hepatic inflammation in emphysematous rats.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a sleep hypoxia (SH) in emphysema (SHE) rat model and to explore whether SHE results in more severe hepatic inflammation than emphysema alone and whether the inflammation changes levels of coagulant/anticoagulant factors synthesized in the liver. METHODS: Seventy-five rats were put into 5 groups: SH control (SHCtrl), treated with sham smoke exposure (16 weeks) and SH exposure (12.5% O(2), 3 h/d, latter 8 weeks); emphysema control (ECtrl), smoke exposure and sham SH exposure (21% O(2)); short SHE (SHEShort), smoke exposure and short SH exposure (1.5 h/d); mild SHE (SHEMild), smoke exposure and mild SH exposure (15% O(2)); standard SHE (SHEStand), smoke exposure and SH exposure. Therefore, ECtrl, SHEShort, SHEMild and SHEStand group were among emphysematous groups. Arterial blood gas (ABG) data was obtained during preliminary tests. After exposure, hepatic inflammation (interleukin -6 [IL-6] mRNA and protein, tumor necrosis factor α [TNFα] mRNA and protein) and liver coagulant/anticoagulant factors (antithrombin [AT], fibrinogen [FIB] and Factor VIII [F VIII]) were evaluated. SPSS 11.5 software was used for statistical analysis. RESULTS: Characteristics of emphysema were obvious in emphysematous groups and ABGs reached SH criteria on hypoxia exposure. Hepatic inflammation parameters and coagulant factors are the lowest in SHCtrl and the highest in SHEStand while AT is the highest in SHCtrl and the lowest in SHEStand. Inflammatory cytokines of liver correlate well with coagulant factors positively and with AT negatively. CONCLUSIONS: When SH is combined with emphysema, hepatic inflammation and coagulability enhance each other synergistically and produce a more significant liver-derivative inflammatory and prothrombotic status.

The influence of hepatic function on prostate cancer outcomes after radical prostatectomy.

Prostate growth is dependent on circulating androgens, which can be influenced by hepatic function. Liver disease has been suggested to influence prostate cancer (CaP) incidence. However, the effect of hepatic function on CaP outcomes has not been investigated. A total of 1181 patients who underwent radical prostatectomy (RP) between 1988 and 2008 at four Veterans Affairs hospitals that comprise the Shared Equal Access Regional Cancer Hospital database and had available liver function test (LFT) data were included in the study. Independent associations of LFTs with unfavorable pathological features and biochemical recurrence were determined using logistic and Cox regression analyses. Serum glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase (SGOT) and serum glutamic pyruvic transaminase (SGPT) levels were elevated in 8.2 and 4.4% of patients, respectively. After controlling for CaP features, logistic regression revealed a significant association between SGOT levels and pathological Gleason sum > or =7(4+3) cancer (odds ratio=2.12; 95% confidence interval=1.11-4.05; P=0.02). Mild hepatic dysfunction was significantly associated with adverse CaP grade, but was not significantly associated with other adverse pathological features or biochemical recurrence in a cohort of men undergoing RP. The effect of moderate-to-severe liver disease on disease outcomes in CaP patients managed non-surgically remains to be investigated.

Amino acid permeases require COPII components and the ER resident membrane protein Shr3p for packaging into transport vesicles in vitro.

In S. cerevisiae lacking SHR3, amino acid permeases specifically accumulate in membranes of the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) and fail to be transported to the plasma membrane. We examined the requirements of transport of the permeases from the ER to the Golgi in vitro. Addition of soluble COPII components (Sec23/24p, Sec13/31p, and Sar1p) to yeast membrane preparations generated vesicles containing the general amino acid permease. Gap1p, and the histidine permease, Hip1p. Shr3p was required for the packaging of Gap1p and Hip1p but was not itself incorporated into transport vesicles. In contrast, the packaging of the plasma membrane ATPase, Pma1p, and the soluble yeast pheromone precursor, glycosylated pro alpha factor, was independent of Shr3p. In addition, we show that integral membrane and soluble cargo colocalize in transport vesicles, indicating that different types of cargo are not segregated at an early step in secretion. Our data suggest that specific ancillary proteins in the ER membrane recruit subsets of integral membrane protein cargo into COPII transport vesicles.

A population model of folate-mediated one-carbon metabolism.

BACKGROUND: Previous mathematical models for hepatic and tissue one-carbon metabolism have been combined and extended to include a blood plasma compartment. We use this model to study how the concentrations of metabolites that can be measured in the plasma are related to their respective intracellular concentrations. METHODS: The model consists of a set of ordinary differential equations, one for each metabolite in each compartment, and kinetic equations for metabolism and for transport between compartments. The model was validated by comparison to a variety of experimental data such as the methionine load test and variation in folate intake. We further extended this model by introducing random and systematic variation in enzyme activity. OUTCOMES AND CONCLUSIONS: A database of 10,000 virtual individuals was generated, each with a quantitatively different one-carbon metabolism. Our population has distributions of folate and homocysteine in the plasma and tissues that are similar to those found in the NHANES data. The model reproduces many other sets of clinical data. We show that tissue and plasma folate is highly correlated, but liver and plasma folate much less so. Oxidative stress increases the plasma S-adenosylmethionine/S-adenosylhomocysteine (SAM/SAH) ratio. We show that many relationships among variables are nonlinear and in many cases we provide explanations. Sampling of subpopulations produces dramatically different apparent associations among variables. The model can be used to simulate populations with polymorphisms in genes for folate metabolism and variations in dietary input.

Biological and physical interactions on a tropical island coral reef: Transport and retention processes on moorea, French Polynesia

The Moorea Coral Reef Long Term Ecological Research project funded by the US National Science Foundation includes multidisciplinary studies of physical processes driving ecological dynamics across the fringing reef, back reef, and fore reef habitats of Moorea, French Polynesia. A network of oceanographic moorings and a variety of other approaches have been used to investigate the biological and biogeochemical aspects of water transport and retention processes in this system. There is evidence to support the hypothesis that a low-frequency counterclockwise flow around the island is superimposed on the relatively strong alongshore currents on each side of the island. Despite the rapid flow and flushing of the back reef, waters over the reef display chemical and biological characteristics distinct from those offshore. The patterns include higher nutrient and lower dissolved organic carbon concentrations, distinct microbial community compositions among habitats, and reef assemblages of zooplankton that exhibit migration behavior, suggesting multigenerational residence on the reef. Zooplankton consumption by planktivorous fish on the reef reflects both retention of reef-associated taxa and capture by the reef community of resources originating offshore. Coral recruitment and population genetics of reef fishes point to retention of larvae within the system and high recruitment levels from local adult populations. The combined results suggest that a broad suite of physical and biological processes contribute to high retention of externally derived and locally produced organic materials within this island coral reef system. © 2013 by The Oceanography Society. All rights reserved.

The use of evacuation modelling techniques in the design of very large transport aircraft and blended wing body aircraft

Very Large Transport Aircraft (VLTA) pose considerable challenges to designers, operators and certification authorities. Questions concerning seating arrangement, nature and design of recreational space, the number, design and location of internal staircases, the number of cabin crew required and the nature of the cabin crew emergency procedures are just some of the issues that need to be addressed. Other more radical concepts such as blended wing body (BWB) design, involving one or two decks with possibly four or more aisles offer even greater challenges. Can the largest exits currently available cope with passenger flow arising from four or five aisles? Do we need to consider new concepts in exit design? Should the main aisles be made wider to accommodate more passengers? In this paper we demonstrate how computer based evacuation models can be used to investigate these issues through examination of staircase evacuation procedures for VLTA and aisle/exit configuration for BWB cabin layouts.

Forward and inverse transport of particulate matter and gaseous pollutants affecting the region bordering the English Channel

The ATTMA "Aerosol Transport in the Trans-Manche Atmosphere" project investigates the transportation and dispersion of air pollutants across the English Channel, in collaboration with local authorities and other Universities in Southern England and Northern France. The research is concerned with both forward and inverse (receptor based) tracking. Two alternative dispersion simulation methods are used: (a) Lagrangian Particle Dispersion (LPD) models, (b) Eulerian Finite Volume type models. This paper is concerned with part (a), the simulations based on LPD models. Two widely applied LPD models are used and compared. Since in many observed episodes the source of pollution is traced outside the region of interest, long range, trans-continental transport is also investigated.

Application of simulation technologies in the analysis of granular material behaviour during transport and storage

Problems in the preservation of the quality of granular material products are complex and arise from a series of sources during transport and storage. In either designing a new plant or, more likely, analysing problems that give rise to product quality degradation in existing operations, practical measurement and simulation tools and technologies are required to support the process engineer. These technologies are required to help in both identifying the source of such problems and then designing them out. As part of a major research programme on quality in particulate manufacturing computational models have been developed for segregation in silos, degradation in pneumatic conveyors, and the development of caking during storage, which use where possible, micro-mechanical relationships to characterize the behaviour of granular materials. The objective of the work presented here is to demonstrate the use of these computational models of unit processes involved in the analysis of large-scale processes involving the handling of granular materials. This paper presents a set of simulations of a complete large-scale granular materials handling operation, involving the discharge of the materials from a silo, its transport through a dilute-phase pneumatic conveyor, and the material storage in a big bag under varying environmental temperature and humidity conditions. Conclusions are drawn on the capability of the computational models to represent key granular processes, including particle size segregation, degradation, and moisture migration caking.