Greenhouse Gas and Nitrogen Fertilizer Scenarios for U.S. Agriculture and Global Biofuels, June 2011

This analysis uses the 2011 FAPRI-CARD (Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute–Center for Agricultural and Rural Development) baseline to evaluate the impact of four alternative scenarios on U.S. and world agricultural markets, as well as on world fertilizer use and world agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. A key assumption in the 2011 baseline is that ethanol support policies disappear in 2012. The baseline also assumes that existing biofuel mandates remain in place and are binding. Two of the scenarios are adverse supply shocks, the first being a 10% increase in the price of nitrogen fertilizer in the United States, and the second, a reversion of cropland into forestland. The third scenario examines how lower energy prices would impact world agriculture. The fourth scenario reintroduces biofuel tax credits and duties. Given that the baseline excludes these policies, the fourth scenario is an attempt to understand the impact of these policies under the market conditions that prevail in early 2011. A key to understanding the results of this fourth scenario is that in the absence of tax credits and duties, the mandate drives biofuel use. Therefore, when the tax credits and duties are reintroduced, the impacts are relatively small. In general, the results show that the entire international commodity market system is remarkably robust with respect to policy changes in one country or in one sector. The policy implication is that domestic policy changes implemented by a large agricultural producer like the United States can have fairly significant impacts on the aggregate world commodity markets. A second point that emerges from the results is that the law of unintended consequences is at work in world agriculture. For example, a U.S. nitrogen tax that might presumably be motivated for environmental benefit results in an increase in world greenhouse gas emissions. A similar situation occurs in the afforestation scenario in which crop production shifts from high-yielding land in the United States to low-yielding land and probably native vegetation in the rest of the world, resulting in an unintended increase in global greenhouse gas emissions.

Global phylogenomic analysis of nonencapsulated Streptococcus pneumoniae reveals a deep-branching classic lineage that is distinct from multiple sporadic lineages.

The surrounding capsule of Streptococcus pneumoniae has been identified as a major virulence factor and is targeted by pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV). However, nonencapsulated S. pneumoniae (non-Ec-Sp) have also been isolated globally, mainly in carriage studies. It is unknown if non-Ec-Sp evolve sporadically, if they have high antibiotic nonsusceptiblity rates and a unique, specific gene content. Here, whole-genome sequencing of 131 non-Ec-Sp isolates sourced from 17 different locations around the world was performed. Results revealed a deep-branching classic lineage that is distinct from multiple sporadic lineages. The sporadic lineages clustered with a previously sequenced, global collection of encapsulated S. pneumoniae (Ec-Sp) isolates while the classic lineage is comprised mainly of the frequently identified multilocus sequences types (STs) ST344 (n = 39) and ST448 (n = 40). All ST344 and nine ST448 isolates had high nonsusceptiblity rates to β-lactams and other antimicrobials. Analysis of the accessory genome reveals that the classic non-Ec-Sp contained an increased number of mobile elements, than Ec-Sp and sporadic non-Ec-Sp. Performing adherence assays to human epithelial cells for selected classic and sporadic non-Ec-Sp revealed that the presence of a integrative conjugative element (ICE) results in increased adherence to human epithelial cells (P = 0.005). In contrast, sporadic non-Ec-Sp lacking the ICE had greater growth in vitro possibly resulting in improved fitness. In conclusion, non-Ec-Sp isolates from the classic lineage have evolved separately. They have spread globally, are well adapted to nasopharyngeal carriage and are able to coexist with Ec-Sp. Due to continued use of PCV, non-Ec-Sp may become more prevalent.

Changes in chromosomal polymorphism and global warming: The case of Drosophila subobscura from Apatin (Serbia)

Abstract In this study, chromosomal inversion polymorphism data for a natural population of Drosophila subobscura from a swampy region near the town of Apatin (Serbia) were compared with data for the same population collected approximately 15 years earlier. The pattern of chromosomal inversion polymorphism changed over time. There were significant increases in the frequency of characteristic southern latitude ("warm" adapted) chromosomal arrangements and significant decreases in the frequency of characteristic northern latitude ("cold" adapted) chromosomal arrangements in the O and U chromosomes. The chromosomal arrangements O3+4 and O3+4+22 (derived from the O3+4 arrangement)showed significant increases in 2008 and 2009 with regard to the 1994 sample. There was also a significant increase (~50%) in the U1+2 arrangement, while U1+8+2 (a typical southern arrangement) was detected for the first time. Since the Apatin swampy population ofD. subobscura has existed for a long time in a stable habitat with high humidity that has not been changed by man our results indicate that natural selection has produced chromosomal changes in response to the increase in temperature that has occurred in the Balkan Peninsula of central southeastern European. Key words: chromosomal inversions, Drosophila subobscura, global warming, karyotypes.

A global analysis of Y-chromosomal haplotype diversity for 23 STR loci.

In a worldwide collaborative effort, 19,630 Y-chromosomes were sampled from 129 different populations in 51 countries. These chromosomes were typed for 23 short-tandem repeat (STR) loci (DYS19, DYS389I, DYS389II, DYS390, DYS391, DYS392, DYS393, DYS385ab, DYS437, DYS438, DYS439, DYS448, DYS456, DYS458, DYS635, GATAH4, DYS481, DYS533, DYS549, DYS570, DYS576, and DYS643) and using the PowerPlex Y23 System (PPY23, Promega Corporation, Madison, WI). Locus-specific allelic spectra of these markers were determined and a consistently high level of allelic diversity was observed. A considerable number of null, duplicate and off-ladder alleles were revealed. Standard single-locus and haplotype-based parameters were calculated and compared between subsets of Y-STR markers established for forensic casework. The PPY23 marker set provides substantially stronger discriminatory power than other available kits but at the same time reveals the same general patterns of population structure as other marker sets. A strong correlation was observed between the number of Y-STRs included in a marker set and some of the forensic parameters under study. Interestingly a weak but consistent trend toward smaller genetic distances resulting from larger numbers of markers became apparent.

Ecological and historical drivers of diversification in the fly genus Chiastocheta Pokorny.

Coevolution is among the main forces shaping the biodiversity on Earth. In Eurasia, one of the best-known plant-insect interactions showing highly coevolved features involves the fly genus Chiastocheta and its host-plant Trollius. Although this system has been widely studied from an ecological point of view, the phylogenetic relationships and biogeographic history of the flies have remained little investigated. In this integrative study, we aim to test the monophyly of the five Chiastocheta eco-morphological groups, defined by Pellmyr in 1992, by inferring a mitochondrial phylogeny. We further apply a new approach to assess the effect of (i) different molecular substitution rates and (ii) phylogenetic uncertainty on the inference of the spatio-temporal evolution of the group. From a taxonomic point of view, we demonstrate that only two of Pellmyr's groups (rotundiventris and dentifera) are phylogenetically supported, the other species appearing para- or polyphyletic. We also identify the position of C. lophota, which was not included in previous surveys. From a spatio-temporal perspective, we show that the genus arose during the Pliocene in Europe. Our results also indicate that at least four large-scale dispersal events are required to explain the current distribution of Chiastocheta. Moreover, each dispersal to or from Asia is associated with a host-shift and seems to correspond to an increase in speciation rates. Finally, we highlight the correlation between diversification and climatic fluctuations, which indicate that the cycles of global cooling over the last million years had an influence on the radiation of the group.

MR features of gastrointestinal stromal tumors.

We report on two patients presenting with gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST). The important tumor size and the marked tissular hypersignal seen on T2-weighted magnetic resonance images (MRI) should be considered as magnetic resonance (MR) features strongly indicating diagnosis of GIST.

Impact of stressful life event on the global functioning outcome after an assertive community treatment

Background: Assertive community treatment (ACT) was reported to be an effective treatment to improve global functioning of ultra-high risk (UHR) adolescents. However, the infl uence of stressful life event (SLE) was not extensively studied which represent our objective. Method: The SLE (encompassing adoption, migration, family member's deceased, sexual or physical abuse, etc.) of 20 UHR adolescents, treated with an ACT model, were rated. 10 adolescents having 0 to 1 SLE (mainly parents' divorce; low SLE group) were compared 10 adolescents with 2 to 5 SLE (high SLE group). The adolescents were assessed at baseline and after treatment with the Health of Nation Outcome Scale for Children and Adolescents (HoNOSCA). The HoNOSCA allowed rating different diffi culties such as behavior, symptoms, disorders and social. Results: First, results on the whole sample indicated signifi cant improvement after ACT (compared to baseline) on the total (P = .04), symptoms (P = .025) and social (P = .009) scores of the HoNOSCA. Second, the improvement on the HoNOSCA's score of the high SLE group were signifi cantly higher for the total (P = .016), symptoms (P = .019) and behavior (P = .033) scores compared to the low SLE group. Discussion/Conclusion: Globally, ACT seems to be an appropriate treatment to enhance global functioning and more specifi cally the social and symptoms diffi culties of UHR adolescents. Additionally, UHR adolescents with a high numbers of SLE were observed to have a better benefi t of the ACT on global, symptoms and behavioral diffi culties.

Pouchography, CT, and MRI features of ileal J pouch-anal anastomosis

OBJECTIVE: Our objective is to describe pouchography, CT, and MRI features of the J-shaped pouch, both normal and with pouch-related complications. CONCLUSION: Pouchography is performed before closure of the loop ileostomy to assess the integrity of the ileal pouch and anastomosis. CT and MRI can be performed when postoperative complications, such as small-bowel obstruction, pouchitis, leakage, abscess, intramural hematoma, desmoid tumor, or recurrent Crohn's disease, are suspected.

Neuroanatomical and neuropsychological features of elderly euthymic depressed patients with early- and late-onset.

BACKGROUND: Whether or not cognitive impairment and brain structure changes are trait characteristics of late-life depression is still disputed. Previous studies led to conflicting data possibly because of the difference in the age of depression onset. In fact, several lines of evidence suggest that late-onset depression (LOD) is more frequently associated with neuropsychological deficits and brain pathology than early-onset depression (EOD). To date, no study explored concomitantly the cognitive profile and brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) patterns in euthymic EOD and LOD patients. METHOD: Using a cross-sectional design, 41 remitted outpatients (30 with EOD and 11 with LOD) were compared to 30 healthy controls. Neuropsychological evaluation concerned working memory, episodic memory, processing speed, naming capacity and executive functions. Volumetric estimates of the amygdala, hippocampus, entorhinal and anterior cingulate cortex were obtained using both voxel-based and region of interest morphometric methods. White matter hyperintensities were assessed semiquantitatively. RESULTS: Both cognitive performance and brain volumes were preserved in euthymic EOD patients whereas LOD patients showed a significant reduction of episodic memory capacity and a higher rate of periventricular hyperintensities compared to both controls and EOD patients. CONCLUSION: Our results support the dissociation between EOD thought to be mainly related to psychosocial factors and LOD that is characterized by increasing vascular burden and episodic memory decline.

Understanding globalization through football: the new international division of labour, migratory channels and transnational trade circuits

Among all sports, football is the one that saw the largest diffusion during the 20th century. Professional leagues exist on all continents and professional footballers are constantly on the move, trying to reach the wealthiest European clubs. Using the football players' market as an example, this article highlights some key features of economic globalization: the new international division of labour, the ever increasing role played by intermediaries to bind the demand and supply of work on a transnational scale, and the setting up of spatially fragmented trade circuits. These processes form the basis for the creation of a global market of footballers in which clubs and championships play complementary roles and are more than ever functionally integrated beyond national borders.

Niche, distribution and global change : modeling insights into biogeography and conservation biology Olivier Broennimann

RESUME Les évidences montrant que les changements globaux affectent la biodiversité s'accumulent. Les facteurs les plus influant dans ce processus sont les changements et destructions d'habitat, l'expansion des espèces envahissantes et l'impact des changements climatiques. Une évaluation pertinente de la réponse des espèces face à ces changements est essentielle pour proposer des mesures permettant de réduire le déclin actuel de la biodiversité. La modélisation de la répartition d'espèces basée sur la niche (NBM) est l'un des rares outils permettant cette évaluation. Néanmoins, leur application dans le contexte des changements globaux repose sur des hypothèses restrictives et demande une interprétation critique. Ce travail présente une série d'études de cas investiguant les possibilités et limitations de cette approche pour prédire l'impact des changements globaux. Deux études traitant des menaces sur les espèces rares et en danger d'extinction sont présentées. Les caractéristiques éco-géographiques de 118 plantes avec un haut degré de priorité de conservation sont revues. La prévalence des types de rareté sont analysées en relation avec leur risque d'extinction UICN. La revue souligne l'importance de la conservation à l'échelle régionale. Une évaluation de la rareté à échelle globale peut être trompeuse pour certaine espèces car elle ne tient pas en compte des différents degrés de rareté que présente une espèce à différentes échelles spatiales. La deuxième étude test une approche pour améliorer l'échantillonnage d'espèces rares en incluant des phases itératives de modélisation et d'échantillonnage sur le terrain. L'application de l'approche en biologie de la conservation (illustrée ici par le cas du chardon bleu, Eryngium alpinum), permettrait de réduire le temps et les coûts d'échantillonnage. Deux études sur l'impact des changements climatiques sur la faune et la flore africaine sont présentées. La première étude évalue la sensibilité de 227 mammifères africains face aux climatiques d'ici 2050. Elle montre qu'un nombre important d'espèces pourrait être bientôt en danger d'extinction et que les parcs nationaux africains (principalement ceux situé en milieux xériques) pourraient ne pas remplir leur mandat de protection de la biodiversité dans le futur. La seconde étude modélise l'aire de répartition en 2050 de 975 espèces de plantes endémiques du sud de l'Afrique. L'étude propose l'inclusion de méthodes améliorant la prédiction des risques liés aux changements climatiques. Elle propose également une méthode pour estimer a priori la sensibilité d'une espèce aux changements climatiques à partir de ses propriétés écologiques et des caractéristiques de son aire de répartition. Trois études illustrent l'utilisation des modèles dans l'étude des invasions biologiques. Une première étude relate l'expansion de la laitue sáuvage (Lactuca serriola) vers le nord de l'Europe en lien avec les changements du climat depuis 250 ans. La deuxième étude analyse le potentiel d'invasion de la centaurée tachetée (Centaures maculosa), une mauvaise herbe importée en Amérique du nord vers 1890. L'étude apporte la preuve qu'une espèce envahissante peut occuper une niche climatique différente après introduction sur un autre continent. Les modèles basés sur l'aire native prédisent de manière incorrecte l'entier de l'aire envahie mais permettent de prévoir les aires d'introductions potentielles. Une méthode alternative, incluant la calibration du modèle à partir des deux aires où l'espèce est présente, est proposée pour améliorer les prédictions de l'invasion en Amérique du nord. Je présente finalement une revue de la littérature sur la dynamique de la niche écologique dans le temps et l'espace. Elle synthétise les récents développements théoriques concernant le conservatisme de la niche et propose des solutions pour améliorer la pertinence des prédictions d'impact des changements climatiques et des invasions biologiques. SUMMARY Evidences are accumulating that biodiversity is facing the effects of global change. The most influential drivers of change in ecosystems are land-use change, alien species invasions and climate change impacts. Accurate projections of species' responses to these changes are needed to propose mitigation measures to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Niche-based models (NBM) currently represent one of the only tools for such projections. However, their application in the context of global changes relies on restrictive assumptions, calling for cautious interpretations. In this thesis I aim to assess the effectiveness and shortcomings of niche-based models for the study of global change impacts on biodiversity through the investigation of specific, unsolved limitations and suggestion of new approaches. Two studies investigating threats to rare and endangered plants are presented. I review the ecogeographic characteristic of 118 endangered plants with high conservation priority in Switzerland. The prevalence of rarity types among plant species is analyzed in relation to IUCN extinction risks. The review underlines the importance of regional vs. global conservation and shows that a global assessment of rarity might be misleading for some species because it can fail to account for different degrees of rarity at a variety of spatial scales. The second study tests a modeling framework including iterative steps of modeling and field surveys to improve the sampling of rare species. The approach is illustrated with a rare alpine plant, Eryngium alpinum and shows promise for complementing conservation practices and reducing sampling costs. Two studies illustrate the impacts of climate change on African taxa. The first one assesses the sensitivity of 277 mammals at African scale to climate change by 2050 in terms of species richness and turnover. It shows that a substantial number of species could be critically endangered in the future. National parks situated in xeric ecosystems are not expected to meet their mandate of protecting current species diversity in the future. The second study model the distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa. The study proposes the inclusion of new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies. It also investigates the possibility to estimate a priori the sensitivity of a species to climate change from the geographical distribution and ecological proprieties of the species. Three studies illustrate the application of NBM in the study of biological invasions. The first one investigates the Northwards expansion of Lactuca serriola L. in Europe during the last 250 years in relation with climate changes. In the last two decades, the species could not track climate change due to non climatic influences. A second study analyses the potential invasion extent of spotted knapweed, a European weed first introduced into North America in the 1890s. The study provides one of the first empirical evidence that an invasive species can occupy climatically distinct niche spaces following its introduction into a new area. Models fail to predict the current full extent of the invasion, but correctly predict areas of introduction. An alternative approach, involving the calibration of models with pooled data from both ranges, is proposed to improve predictions of the extent of invasion on models based solely on the native range. I finally present a review on the dynamic nature of ecological niches in space and time. It synthesizes the recent theoretical developments to the niche conservatism issues and proposes solutions to improve confidence in NBM predictions of the impacts of climate change and species invasions on species distributions.

Novas estratégias organizacionais no cenário global

Diante das transformações organizacionais decorrentes dos processos de globalização e de convergência dos meios de comunicação, os países periféricos se encontram confrontados com um duplo dilema: o imperativo econômico-político de se inserir no concerto das nações mais desenvolvidas e a vontade social-cultural de preservar as suas especificidades históricas. Tratando do caso particular do Brasil, o artigo analisa algumas das estratégias possíveis de conciliação entre a dinâmica da globalização e as forças de enraizamento local e regional.

Observatório da cidadania: monitorando as políticas públicas em âmbito global

As análises e discussões teóricas sobre o atual processo de globalização têm dado ênfase aos aspectos econômicos e tecnológicos e seus impactos na vida social e cultural dos indivíduos. Contudo, experiências como a do Social Watch (Observatório da Cidadania em português, Control Ciudadano em espanhol) - uma rede mundial de grupos de cidadãos e organizações civis sem fins lucrativos criada para monitorar as ações de desenvolvimento social - mostram como as informações sobre as políticas públicas dos governos e dos organismos multilaterais podem ser agenciadas e analisadas para subsidiar o processo decisório dos atores sociais, da mesma forma que o fazem as corporações transnacionais. O Observatório da Cidadania estimula a atuação em rede e o intercâmbio de idéias e de informação sobre estratégias bem-sucedidas de combate à pobreza e da discriminação de gênero. Para publicação do seu relatório anual (em inglês, português, espanhol e italiano) e de relatórios locais, nacionais e regionais, a rede coleta, analisa e debate os dados disponíveis em fontes oficiais e alternativas, estruturando seus próprios indicadores de desenvolvimento social. Toda essa informação resulta da competência técnica acumulada por centenas de contra-especialistas no chamado terceiro setor e é veiculada tanto em papel quanto via Internet.