On the importance of the first observation in GLS detrending in unit root testing

First-differencing is generally taken to imply the loss of one observation, the first, or at least that the effect of ignoring this observation is asymptotically negligible. However, this is not always true, as in the case of generalized least squares (GLS) detrending. In order to illustrate this, the current article considers as an example the use of GLS detrended data when testing for a unit root. The results show that the treatment of the first observation is absolutely crucial for test performance, and that ignorance causes test break-down.

The asymptotic distribution of the CADF unit root test in the presence of heterogeneous AR(p) errors

The CADF test of Pesaran (J Appl Econ 22:265–312, 2007) are among the most popular univariate tests for cross-section correlated panels around. Yet, the existing asymptotic analysis of this test statistic is limited to a model in which the errors are assumed to follow a simple AR(1) structure with homogenous autoregressive coefficients. One reason for this is that the model involves an intricate identification issue, as both the serial and cross-section correlation structures of the errors are unobserved. The purpose of the current paper is to tackle this issue and in so doing extend the existing analysis to the case of AR((Formula presented.)) errors with possibly heterogeneous coefficients.

A factor analytical method to interactive effects dynamic panel models with or without unit root

In a recent study, Bai (Fixed-Effects Dynamic Panel Models, A Factor Analytical Method. Econometrica 81, 285-314, 2013a) proposes a new factor analytic (FA) method to the estimation of dynamic panel data models, which has the unique and very useful property that it is completely bias-free. However, while certainly appealing, it is restricted to fixed effects models without a unit root. In many situations of practical relevance this is a rather restrictive consideration. The purpose of the current study is therefore to extend the FA approach to cover models with multiple interactive effects and a possible unit root.

Pooled panel unit root tests and the effect of past initialization

This paper analyzes the role of initialization when testing for a unit root in panel data, an issue that has received surprisingly little attention in the literature. In fact, most studies assume that the initial value is either zero or bounded. As a response to this, the current paper considers a model in which the initialization is in the past, which is shown to have several distinctive features that makes it attractive, even in comparison to the common time series practice of making the initial value a draw from its unconditional distribution under the stationary alternative. The results have implications not only for theory, but also for applied work. In particular, and in contrast to the time series case, in panels the effect of the initialization need not be negative but can actually lead to improved test performance.

A note on the pooling of individual panic unit root tests

One of the most cited studies in recent years within the field of nonstationary panel data analysis is that of Bai and Ng (2004), in which the authors propose PANIC, a new framework for analyzing the nonstationarity of panels with idiosyncratic and common components. The problem is that the asymptotic validity of PANIC as a platform for constructing pooled panel unit root tests based on averaging is not fully proven. This paper provides the required results, whose usefulness is verified through simulations. © 2009 Cambridge University Press.

Pooled unit root tests in panels with a common factor

This paper proposes new pooled panel unit root tests that are appropriate when the data exhibit cross-sectional dependence that is generated by a single common factor. Using sequential limit arguments, we show that the tests have a limiting normal distribution that is free of nuisance parameters and that they are unbiased against heterogenous local alternatives. Our Monte Carlo results indicate that the tests perform well in comparison to other popular tests that also presumes a common factor structure for the cross-sectional dependence.

Is there really a unit root in the inflation rate? More evidence from panel data models

Time series unit root evidence suggests that inflation is nonstationary. By contrast, when using more powerful panel unit root tests, Culver and Papell (1997) find that inflation is stationary. In this article, we test the robustness of this result by applying a battery of recent panel unit root tests. The results suggest that the stationarity of inflation holds even after controlling for cross-sectional dependence and structural change.

The local power of the CADF and CIPS panel unit root tests

Very little is known about the local power of second generation panel unit root tests that are robust to cross-section dependence. This article derives the local asymptotic power functions of the cross-section argumented Dickey–Fuller Cross-section Augmented Dickey-Fuller (CADF) and CIPS tests of Pesaran (2007), which are among the most popular tests around.

Retrospective clinical audit of outcomes for patients admitted to an inpatient palliative care unit for restorative care

Background Restorative care in palliative care is a subset of rehabilitation that aims to improve quality of life through restoration or maintenance of physical functions. Outcomes for restorative care programmes delivered by palliative care units have not adequately been assessed.

Objectives The objectives are to examine the outcomes of a restorative care programme in an inpatient palliative care unit, including discharge destination, performance status changes and length of stay.

Methods Retrospective clinical audit of consecutive patients admitted to Calvary Health Care Bethlehem in Melbourne, Australia, principally for restorative care from July 2010 to December 2011.

Results 79 admissions met inclusion criteria. Mean age was 76.5 years (SD=11.14) and 43 (54%) were men. 75 (95%) patients had a malignant diagnosis; of these, the majority had lung cancer (24%). 16 patients (20%) were discharged home, 51 (65%) died and 12 (15%) were transferred. Of the patients discharged home, only 6 (38% of those discharged home) improved their performance status. Those discharged home had a significantly shorter length of stay (17 days compared to 39 days; p<0.05). Patients discharged home also had significantly better Australia-modified Karnofsky Performance Status (AKPS) and Resource Utilisation Groups-Activities of Daily Living (RUG-ADL) scores on admission than others (both p<0.05).

Conclusions The majority of patients referred for restorative care died during admission, with only a minority discharged home. Patients discharged most commonly experienced maintenance and not improvement in performance status. A successful discharge home following restorative care was associated with a shorter length of stay. Implications and recommendations for successful restorative care will be discussed.

The injury profile of an Australian specialist policing unit

This study investigated the injuries sustained by an Australian specialist police division. Injury records spanning four-years were analyzed. The role being performed when the injury occurred, injury cause, body part injured, and injury-related costs were quantified. The percentage of personnel injured multiple times was documented. One hundred and thirty eight personnel reported injuries, 58 of these on multiple occasions. This resulted in 229 injuries and 76 claims being raised. Half of the injuries occurred during operational policing tasks, however training activities accounted for >30% of injuries. The most common injury was strain/sprain, and upper body injuries were 2.5-times more common than lower-body or torso injuries. 1107 shifts were lost, and injuries cost the organization $487,159 (Australian Dollars) over the four-year period. The injury costs (both financial and in manpower) may prompt policy makers to review the current training and post-injury rehabilitation protocols.

Integration of renewable generation uncertainties into stochastic unit commitment considering reserve and risk: a comparative study

The uncertainties of renewable energy have brought great challenges to power system commitment, dispatches and reserve requirement. This paper presents a comparative study on integration of renewable generation uncertainties into SCUC (stochastic security-constrained unit commitment) considering reserve and risk. Renewable forecast uncertainties are captured by a list of PIs (prediction intervals). A new scenario generation method is proposed to generate scenarios from these PIs. Different system uncertainties are considered as scenarios in the stochastic SCUC problem formulation. Two comparative simulations with single (E1: wind only) and multiple sources of uncertainty (E2: load, wind, solar and generation outages) are investigated. Five deterministic and four stochastic case studies are performed. Different generation costs, reserve strategies and associated risks are compared under various scenarios. Demonstrated results indicate the overall costs of E2 is lower than E1 due to penetration of solar power and the associated risk in deterministic cases of E2 is higher than E1. It implies the superimposed effect of uncertainties during uncertainty integration. The results also demonstrate that power systems run a higher level of risk during peak load hours, and that stochastic models are more robust than deterministic ones.

Serviços de saúde e seus usuários : comunicação entre culturas em uma unidade de saúde comunitária

Este trabalho é fruto de uma investigação que buscou elucidar a relação estabelecida entre os serviços de saúde e os seus usuários. Com esse objetivo, utilizou-se uma abordagem antropológica que teve como referência a experiência empírica ligada à Unidade Conceição do Serviço de Saúde Comunitária do Grupo Hospitalar Conceição, em Porto Alegre, RS. Funcionando nas dependências do Hospital Nossa Senhora Conceição, a Unidade Conceição é um posto de saúde vinculado ao Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS) em que médicos gerais comunitários e outros profissionais vêm prestando atendimento de saúde, há cerca de 15 anos, aos moradores da sua vizinhança, calculados atualmente em mais de 20 mil pessoas. Tendo como pano de fundo as influências da cultura no comportamento humano e na prestação de atendimento de saúde, os desdobramentos principais da relação entre a Unidade e os seus usuários foram analisados sob diversos eixos: a história da Unidade, seus conflitos com a instituição e outras especialidades médicas; a relação da Unidade com a área geográfica sob sua responsabilidade; a questão da participação popular nos serviços de saúde, mais especificamente a experiência do seu Conselho Gestor Local; e, por fim, a avaliação dos serviços de saúde, principalmente no que concerne à perspectiva dos pacientes. Sempre que possível, a análise feita procurou fazer uma ligação com as mudanças ocorridas no sistema de saúde brasileiro nos últimos anos. Resgatar os aspectos culturais como elemento essencial para o estabelecimento de uma comunicação efetiva entre os indivíduos e os serviços formais de saúde mostrou-se fundamental para permitir o aprofundamento desse tipo de análise e para qualificar as ações desenvolvidas pelos serviços de saúde.

Comparing two multivariate unit root tests

In this essay, a method for comparing the asymptotic power of the multivariate unit root tests proposed in Phillips & Durlauf (1986) and Flˆores, Preumont & Szafarz (1996) is proposed. In order to determine the asymptotic power of the tests the asymptotic distributions under the null hypothesis and under the set of alternative hypotheses described in Phillips (1988) are determined. In addition, a test which combines characteristics of both tests is proposed and its distributions under the null hypothesis and the same set of alternative hypotheses are determined. This allows us to determine what causes any difference in the asymptotic power of the two tests against the set of alternative hypotheses considered

Purchasing power parity and the unit root tests: a robust analysis

Empirical evidence suggests that real exchange rate is characterized by the presence of near-unity and additive outliers. Recent studeis have found evidence on favor PPP reversion by using the quasi-differencing (Elliott et al., 1996) unit root tests (ERS), which is more efficient against local alternatives but is still based on least squares estimation. Unit root tests basead on least saquares method usually tend to bias inference towards stationarity when additive out liers are present. In this paper, we incorporate quasi-differencing into M-estimation to construct a unit root test that is robust not only against near-unity root but also against nonGaussian behavior provoked by assitive outliers. We re-visit the PPP hypothesis and found less evidemce in favor PPP reversion when non-Gaussian behavior in real exchange rates is taken into account.

Testing unit root based on partially adaptive estimation

This paper proposes unit tests based on partially adaptive estimation. The proposed tests provide an intermediate class of inference procedures that are more efficient than the traditional OLS-based methods and simpler than unit root tests based on fully adptive estimation using nonparametric methods. The limiting distribution of the proposed test is a combination of standard normal and the traditional Dickey-Fuller (DF) distribution, including the traditional ADF test as a special case when using Gaussian density. Taking into a account the well documented characteristic of heavy-tail behavior in economic and financial data, we consider unit root tests coupled with a class of partially adaptive M-estimators based on the student-t distributions, wich includes te normal distribution as a limiting case. Monte Carlo Experiments indicate that, in the presence of heavy tail distributions or innovations that are contaminated by outliers, the proposed test is more powerful than the traditional ADF test. We apply the proposed test to several macroeconomic time series that have heavy-tailed distributions. The unit root hypothesis is rejected in U.S. real GNP, supporting the literature of transitory shocks in output. However, evidence against unit roots is not found in real exchange rate and nominal interest rate even haevy-tail is taken into a account.