International evidence on the predictability of returns to securitized real estate assets: econometric models versus neural networks

The performance of various statistical models and commonly used financial indicators for forecasting securitised real estate returns are examined for five European countries: the UK, Belgium, the Netherlands, France and Italy. Within a VAR framework, it is demonstrated that the gilt-equity yield ratio is in most cases a better predictor of securitized returns than the term structure or the dividend yield. In particular, investors should consider in their real estate return models the predictability of the gilt-equity yield ratio in Belgium, the Netherlands and France, and the term structure of interest rates in France. Predictions obtained from the VAR and univariate time-series models are compared with the predictions of an artificial neural network model. It is found that, whilst no single model is universally superior across all series, accuracy measures and horizons considered, the neural network model is generally able to offer the most accurate predictions for 1-month horizons. For quarterly and half-yearly forecasts, the random walk with a drift is the most successful for the UK, Belgian and Dutch returns and the neural network for French and Italian returns. Although this study underscores market context and forecast horizon as parameters relevant to the choice of the forecast model, it strongly indicates that analysts should exploit the potential of neural networks and assess more fully their forecast performance against more traditional models.

Spectro-electrochemical and DFT studies of a planar Cu(II)–phenolate complex active in the aerobic oxidation of primary alcohols

A square-planar compound [Cu(pyrimol)Cl] (pyrimol = 4-methyl-2-N-(2-pyridylmethylene)aminophenolate) abbreviated as CuL–Cl) is described as a biomimetic model of the enzyme galactose oxidase (GOase). This copper(II) compound is capable of stoichiometric aerobic oxidation of activated primary alcohols in acetonitrile/water to the corresponding aldehydes. It can be obtained either from Hpyrimol (HL) or its reduced/hydrogenated form Hpyramol (4-methyl-2-N-(2-pyridylmethyl)aminophenol; H2L) readily converting to pyrimol (L-) on coordination to the copper(II) ion. Crystalline CuL–Cl and its bromide derivative exhibit a perfect square-planar geometry with Cu–O(phenolate) bond lengths of 1.944(2) and 1.938(2) Å. The cyclic voltammogram of CuL–Cl exhibits an irreversible anodic wave at +0.50 and +0.57 V versus ferrocene/ferrocenium (Fc/Fc+) in dry dichloromethane and acetonitrile, respectively, corresponding to oxidation of the phenolate ligand to the corresponding phenoxyl radical. In the strongly donating acetonitrile the oxidation path involves reversible solvent coordination at the Cu(II) centre. The presence of the dominant CuII–L. chromophore in the electrochemically and chemically oxidised species is evident from a new fairly intense electronic absorption at 400–480 nm ascribed to a several electronic transitions having a mixed pi-pi(L.) intraligand and Cu–Cl -> L. charge transfer character. The EPR signal of CuL–Cl disappears on oxidation due to strong intramolecular antiferromagnetic exchange coupling between the phenoxyl radical ligand (L.) and the copper(II) centre, giving rise to a singlet ground state (S = 0). The key step in the mechanism of the primary alcohol oxidation by CuL–Cl is probably the alpha-hydrogen abstraction from the equatorially bound alcoholate by the phenoxyl moiety in the oxidised pyrimol ligand, Cu–L., through a five-membered cyclic transition state.

A metaphorical analysis of client organisations and the briefing process

This paper reviews and critiques the current practice of classifying building clients according to their 'type'. An alternative approach to understanding organisations is developed in accordance with the principles of naturalistic inquiry. It is contended that the complex pluralistic clients of the 1990s can only really be understood 'from the inside'. The concept of organisational metaphors is introduced as the basis for a more sophisticated way of thinking about organisations. The various strands of organisational theory are also analyzed in terms of their underlying metaphors. Different theories are seen to bring different insights. The implicit metaphors adopted by practitioners are held to be important in that they tend to dictate the adopted approach to client briefing. This contention is illustrated by analyzing three different characterisations of the briefing process in terms of their underlying metaphors. Finally, the discussion is placed in a contemporary UK context by comparing the dominant paradigm of practice during the 1980s to that of the 1990s.