Building predictive models of soil particle-size distribution

Is it possible to build predictive models (PMs) of soil particle-size distribution (psd) in a region with complex geology and a young and unstable land-surface? The main objective of this study was to answer this question. A set of 339 soil samples from a small slope catchment in Southern Brazil was used to build PMs of psd in the surface soil layer. Multiple linear regression models were constructed using terrain attributes (elevation, slope, catchment area, convergence index, and topographic wetness index). The PMs explained more than half of the data variance. This performance is similar to (or even better than) that of the conventional soil mapping approach. For some size fractions, the PM performance can reach 70 %. Largest uncertainties were observed in geologically more complex areas. Therefore, significant improvements in the predictions can only be achieved if accurate geological data is made available. Meanwhile, PMs built on terrain attributes are efficient in predicting the particle-size distribution (psd) of soils in regions of complex geology.

Processes models, environmental analyses, and cognitive architectures: Quo vadis quantum probability theory? (Commentary on Pothos and Busemeyer)

A lot of research in cognition and decision making suffers from a lack of formalism. The quantum probability program could help to improve this situation, but we wonder whether it would provide even more added value if its presumed focus on outcome models were complemented by process models that are, ideally, informed by ecological analyses and integrated into cognitive architectures.

Trans-SNARE pairing can precede a hemifusion intermediate in intracellular membrane fusion.

The question concerning whether all membranes fuse according to the same mechanism has yet to be answered satisfactorily. During fusion of model membranes or viruses, membranes dock, the outer membrane leaflets mix (termed hemifusion), and finally the fusion pore opens and the contents mix. Viral fusion proteins consist of a membrane-disturbing 'fusion peptide' and a helical bundle that pin the membranes together. Although SNARE (soluble N-ethylmaleimide-sensitive factor attachment protein receptor) complexes form helical bundles with similar topology, it is unknown whether SNARE-dependent fusion events on intracellular membranes proceed through a hemifusion state. Here we identify the first hemifusion state for SNARE-dependent fusion of native membranes, and place it into a sequence of molecular events: formation of helical bundles by SNAREs precedes hemifusion; further progression to pore opening requires additional peptides. Thus, SNARE-dependent fusion may proceed along the same pathway as viral fusion: both use a docking mechanism via helical bundles and additional peptides to destabilize the membrane and efficiently induce lipid mixing. Our results suggest that a common lipidic intermediate may underlie all fusion reactions of lipid bilayers.

Vesicular transport of d-serine in astrocytes

The concept of tripartite synapse suggests that astrocytes make up a functional synapse with pre- and postsynaptic neuronal elements to modulate synaptic transmission through the regulated release of neuromodulators called gliotransmitters. Release of gliotransmitters such as glutamate or D-serine has been shown to depend on Ca21-dependent exocytosis. However, the origin (cytosolic versus vesicular) of the released gliotransmitter is still a matter of debate. The existence of Ca21-regulated exocytosis in astrocytes has been questioned mostly because the nature of secretory organelles which are loaded with gliotransmitters is unknown. Here we show the existence of a population of vesicles that uptakes and stores glutamate and D-serine in astrocytes which are present in situ. Immunoisolated glial organelles expressing synaptobrevin 2 (Sb2) display morphological and biochemical features very similar to synaptic vesicles. We demonstrate that these organelles not only contain and uptake glutamate but also display a glia-specific transport activity for D-serine. Furthermore, we report that the uptake of D-serine is energized by a H1-ATPase present on the immunoisolated vesicles and that cytosolic chloride ions modulate the uptake of D-serine. Finally, we show that serine racemase (SR), the synthesizing enzyme for D-serine, is anchored to the membrane of glial organelles allowing a local and efficient concentration of the gliotransmitter to be transported. We conclude that vesicles in astrocytes do exist with the goal to store and release D-serine, glutamate and most likely other neuromodulators.

Evaluation of statistical and geostatistical models of digital soil properties mapping in tropical mountain regions

Soil properties have an enormous impact on economic and environmental aspects of agricultural production. Quantitative relationships between soil properties and the factors that influence their variability are the basis of digital soil mapping. The predictive models of soil properties evaluated in this work are statistical (multiple linear regression-MLR) and geostatistical (ordinary kriging and co-kriging). The study was conducted in the municipality of Bom Jardim, RJ, using a soil database with 208 sampling points. Predictive models were evaluated for sand, silt and clay fractions, pH in water and organic carbon at six depths according to the specifications of the consortium of digital soil mapping at the global level (GlobalSoilMap). Continuous covariates and categorical predictors were used and their contributions to the model assessed. Only the environmental covariates elevation, aspect, stream power index (SPI), soil wetness index (SWI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and b3/b2 band ratio were significantly correlated with soil properties. The predictive models had a mean coefficient of determination of 0.21. Best results were obtained with the geostatistical predictive models, where the highest coefficient of determination 0.43 was associated with sand properties between 60 to 100 cm deep. The use of a sparse data set of soil properties for digital mapping can explain only part of the spatial variation of these properties. The results may be related to the sampling density and the quantity and quality of the environmental covariates and predictive models used.

Stochastic semiclassical cosmological models

We consider the classical stochastic fluctuations of spacetime geometry induced by quantum fluctuations of massless nonconformal matter fields in the early Universe. To this end, we supplement the stress-energy tensor of these fields with a stochastic part, which is computed along the lines of the Feynman-Vernon and Schwinger-Keldysh techniques; the Einstein equation is therefore upgraded to a so-called Einstein-Langevin equation. We consider in some detail the conformal fluctuations of flat spacetime and the fluctuations of the scale factor in a simple cosmological model introduced by Hartle, which consists of a spatially flat isotropic cosmology driven by radiation and dust.

Classical anisotropies in models of open inflation

In the simplest model of open inflation there are two inflaton fields decoupled from each other. One of them, the tunneling field, produces a first stage of inflation which prepares the ground for the nucleation of a highly symmetric bubble. The other, a free field, drives a second period of slow-roll inflation inside the bubble. However, the second field also evolves during the first stage of inflation, which to some extent breaks the needed symmetry. We show that this generates large supercurvature anisotropies which, together with the results of Tanaka and Sasaki, rule out this class of simple models (unless, of course, Omega0 is sufficiently close to 1). The problem does not arise in modified models where the second field does not evolve in the first stage of inflation.

Models that include supercoiling of topological domains reproduce several known features of interphase chromosomes.

Understanding the structure of interphase chromosomes is essential to elucidate regulatory mechanisms of gene expression. During recent years, high-throughput DNA sequencing expanded the power of chromosome conformation capture (3C) methods that provide information about reciprocal spatial proximity of chromosomal loci. Since 2012, it is known that entire chromatin in interphase chromosomes is organized into regions with strongly increased frequency of internal contacts. These regions, with the average size of ∼1 Mb, were named topological domains. More recent studies demonstrated presence of unconstrained supercoiling in interphase chromosomes. Using Brownian dynamics simulations, we show here that by including supercoiling into models of topological domains one can reproduce and thus provide possible explanations of several experimentally observed characteristics of interphase chromosomes, such as their complex contact maps.

Critical clusters and efficient dynamics for frustrated spin models

A general method to find, in a systematic way, efficient Monte Carlo cluster dynamics among the avast class of dynamics introduced by Kandel et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 65, 941 (1990)] is proposed. The method is successfully applied to a class of frustrated two-dimensional Ising systems. In the case of the fully frustrated model, we also find the intriguing result that critical clusters consist of self-avoiding walk at the theta point.

On the problematic of reserving and stochastic loss models

Abstract Traditionally, the common reserving methods used by the non-life actuaries are based on the assumption that future claims are going to behave in the same way as they did in the past. There are two main sources of variability in the processus of development of the claims: the variability of the speed with which the claims are settled and the variability between the severity of the claims from different accident years. High changes in these processes will generate distortions in the estimation of the claims reserves. The main objective of this thesis is to provide an indicator which firstly identifies and quantifies these two influences and secondly to determine which model is adequate for a specific situation. Two stochastic models were analysed and the predictive distributions of the future claims were obtained. The main advantage of the stochastic models is that they provide measures of variability of the reserves estimates. The first model (PDM) combines one conjugate family Dirichlet - Multinomial with the Poisson distribution. The second model (NBDM) improves the first one by combining two conjugate families Poisson -Gamma (for distribution of the ultimate amounts) and Dirichlet Multinomial (for distribution of the incremental claims payments). It was found that the second model allows to find the speed variability in the reporting process and development of the claims severity as function of two above mentioned distributions' parameters. These are the shape parameter of the Gamma distribution and the Dirichlet parameter. Depending on the relation between them we can decide on the adequacy of the claims reserve estimation method. The parameters have been estimated by the Methods of Moments and Maximum Likelihood. The results were tested using chosen simulation data and then using real data originating from the three lines of business: Property/Casualty, General Liability, and Accident Insurance. These data include different developments and specificities. The outcome of the thesis shows that when the Dirichlet parameter is greater than the shape parameter of the Gamma, resulting in a model with positive correlation between the past and future claims payments, suggests the Chain-Ladder method as appropriate for the claims reserve estimation. In terms of claims reserves, if the cumulated payments are high the positive correlation will imply high expectations for the future payments resulting in high claims reserves estimates. The negative correlation appears when the Dirichlet parameter is lower than the shape parameter of the Gamma, meaning low expected future payments for the same high observed cumulated payments. This corresponds to the situation when claims are reported rapidly and fewer claims remain expected subsequently. The extreme case appears in the situation when all claims are reported at the same time leading to expectations for the future payments of zero or equal to the aggregated amount of the ultimate paid claims. For this latter case, the Chain-Ladder is not recommended.

Percolation and cluster Monte Carlo dynamics for spin models

A general scheme for devising efficient cluster dynamics proposed in a previous paper [Phys. Rev. Lett. 72, 1541 (1994)] is extensively discussed. In particular, the strong connection among equilibrium properties of clusters and dynamic properties as the correlation time for magnetization is emphasized. The general scheme is applied to a number of frustrated spin models and the results discussed.

Astrocytes contain a vesicular compartment that is competent for regulated exocytosis of glutamate.

Astrocytes establish rapid cell-to-cell communication through the release of chemical transmitters. The underlying mechanisms and functional significance of this release are, however, not well understood. Here we identify an astrocytic vesicular compartment that is competent for glutamate exocytosis. Using postembedding immunogold labeling of the rat hippocampus, we show that vesicular glutamate transporters (VGLUT1/2) and the vesicular SNARE protein, cellubrevin, are both expressed in small vesicular organelles that resemble synaptic vesicles of glutamatergic terminals. Astrocytic vesicles, which are not as densely packed as their neuronal counterparts, can be observed in small groups at sites adjacent to neuronal structures bearing glutamate receptors. Fluorescently tagged VGLUT-containing vesicles were studied dynamically in living astrocytes by total internal reflection fluorescence (TIRF) microscopy. After activation of metabotropic glutamate receptors, astrocytic vesicles underwent rapid (milliseconds) Ca(2+)- and SNARE-dependent exocytic fusion that was accompanied by glutamate release. These data document the existence of a Ca(2+)-dependent quantal glutamate release activity in glia that was previously considered to be specific to synapses.