A probabilistic modelling scheme for analysis of long-term failure of cemented femoral joint replacements

Reliable prediction of long-term medical device performance using computer simulation requires consideration of variability in surgical procedure, as well as patient-specific factors. However, even deterministic simulation of long-term failure processes for such devices is time and resource consuming so that including variability can lead to excessive time to achieve useful predictions. This study investigates the use of an accelerated probabilistic framework for predicting the likely performance envelope of a device and applies it to femoral prosthesis loosening in cemented hip arthroplasty.
A creep and fatigue damage failure model for bone cement, in conjunction with an interfacial fatigue model for the implant–cement interface, was used to simulate loosening of a prosthesis within a cement mantle. A deterministic set of trial simulations was used to account for variability of a set of surgical and patient factors, and a response surface method was used to perform and accelerate a Monte Carlo simulation to achieve an estimate of the likely range of prosthesis loosening. The proposed framework was used to conceptually investigate the influence of prosthesis selection and surgical placement on prosthesis migration.
Results demonstrate that the response surface method is capable of dramatically reducing the time to achieve convergence in mean and variance of predicted response variables. A critical requirement for realistic predictions is the size and quality of the initial training dataset used to generate the response surface and further work is required to determine the recommendations for a minimum number of initial trials. Results of this conceptual application predicted that loosening was sensitive to the implant size and femoral width. Furthermore, different rankings of implant performance were predicted when only individual simulations (e.g. an average condition) were used to rank implants, compared with when stochastic simulations were used. In conclusion, the proposed framework provides a viable approach to predicting realistic ranges of loosening behaviour for orthopaedic implants in reduced timeframes compared with conventional Monte Carlo simulations.

LIAD-fs scheme for studies of ultrafast laser interactions with gas phase biomolecules

Laser induced acoustic desorption (LIAD) has been used for the first time to study the parent ion production and fragmentation mechanisms of a biological molecule in an intense femtosecond (fs) laser field. The photoacoustic shock wave generated in the analyte substrate (thin Ta foil) has been simulated using the hydrodynamic HYADES code, and the full LIAD process has been experimentally characterised as a function of the desorption UV-laser pulse parameters. Observed neutral plumes of densities > 10(9) cm(-3) which are free from solvent or matrix contamination demonstrate the suitability and potential of the source for studying ultrafast dynamics in the gas phase using fs laser pulses. Results obtained with phenylalanine show that through manipulation of fundamental femtosecond laser parameters (such as pulse length, intensity and wavelength), energy deposition within the molecule can be controlled to allow enhancement of parent ion production or generation of characteristic fragmentation patterns. In particular by reducing the pulse length to a timescale equivalent to the fastest vibrational periods in the molecule, we demonstrate how fragmentation of the molecule can be minimised whilst maintaining a high ionisation efficiency.

An Expanded Multilocus Sequence Typing Scheme for Propionibacterium acnes: Investigation of ‘Pathogenic’, ‘Commensal’ and Antibiotic Resistant Strains

The Gram-positive bacterium Propionibacterium acnes is a member of the normal human skin microbiota and is associated with various infections and clinical conditions. There is tentative evidence to suggest that certain lineages may be associated with disease and others with health. We recently described a multilocus sequence typing scheme (MLST) for P. acnes based on seven housekeeping genes (http://pubmlst.org/pacnes). We now describe an expanded eight gene version based on six housekeeping genes and two ‘putative virulence’ genes (eMLST) that provides improved high resolution
typing (91eSTs from 285 isolates), and generates phylogenies congruent with those based on whole genome analysis. When compared with the nine gene MLST scheme developed at the University of Bath, UK, and utilised by researchers at Aarhus University, Denmark, the eMLST method offers greater resolution. Using the scheme, we examined 208 isolates from disparate clinical sources, and 77 isolates from healthy skin. Acne was predominately associated with type IA₁ clonal complexes CC1, CC3 and CC4; with eST1 and eST3 lineages being highly represented. In contrast, type IA₂ strains were recovered at a rate similar to type IB and II organisms. Ophthalmic infections were predominately associated with type IA₁ and IA₂ strains, while type IB and II were more frequently recovered from soft tissue and retrieved medical devices. Strains with rRNA mutations conferring resistance to antibiotics used in acne treatment were dominated by eST3, with some evidence for intercontinental spread. In contrast, despite its high association with acne, only a small number of resistant CC1 eSTs were identified. A number of eSTs were only recovered from healthy skin, particularly eSTs representing CC72 (type II) and CC77 (type III). Collectively our data lends support to the view that pathogenic versus truly commensal lineages of P. acnes may exist. This is likely to have important therapeutic and diagnostic implications.

The physical activity loyalty card scheme:Development and application of a novel system for incentivizing behaviour change

In the Public Health White Paper "Healthy Lives, Healthy People" (2010), the UK Government emphasised using incentives and "nudging" to encourage positive, healthy behaviour changes. However, there is little evidence that nudging is effective, in particular for increasing physical activity. We have created a platform to research the effectiveness of health-related behaviour change interventions and incentive schemes. The system consists of an outward-facing website, incorporating tools for incentivizing behaviour change, and a novel physical activity monitoring system. The monitoring system consists of the "Physical Activity Loyalty Card", which contains a passive RFID tag, and a contactless sensor network to detect the cards. This paper describes the application of this novel web-based system to investigate the effectiveness of non-cash incentives to "nudge" adults to undertake more physical activity. © 2012 ICST Institute for Computer Science, Social Informatics and Telecommunications Engineering.

Detached-Eddy Simulation of a Louver-Cooling Scheme for Turbine Blades

The performance of a louver-cooling scheme on a flat plate was analyzed using a detached-eddy-simulation turbulence model. It was assumed that the louver-cooling scheme was tested in a wind tunnel with the mainstream flow velocity of 20 m/s, equivalent to a Reynolds number of 16,200, based on the jet diameter. Turbulence closure was achieved by a realizable k-e-based detached-eddy-simulation turbulence model. Solutions of two blowing ratios of 0.5 and 1 were successfully obtained by running parallel on 16 nodes on a computer cluster. The flowfields were found to be highly unsteady and oscillatory in nature, with the maximum fluctuation of the adiabatic effectiveness as high as 15% of the time-averaged value. It is shown that the fluctuations in the adiabatic effectiveness are mainly caused by the spanwise fluctuation of the coolant jet and the unsteady vortical structures created by the interaction of the jet and the mainstream.

Numerical Study of Film Cooling Scheme on a Blunt-Nosed Body in Hypersonic Flow

In hypersonic flight, the prediction of aerodynamic heating and the construction of a proper thermal protection system (TPS) are significantly important. In this study, the method of a film cooling technique, which is already the state of the art in cooling of gas turbine engines, is proposed for a fully reusable and active TPS. Effectiveness of the film cooling scheme to reduce convective heating rates for a blunt-nosed spacecraft flying at Mach number 6.56 and 40 deg angle of attack is investigated numerically. The inflow boundary conditions used the standard values at an altitude of 30 km. The computational domain consists of infinite rows of film cooling holes on the bottom of a blunt-nosed slab. Laminar and several turbulent calculations have been performed and compared. The influence of blowing ratios on the film cooling effectiveness is investigated. The results exhibit that the film cooling technique could be an effective method for an active cooling of blunt-nosed bodies in hypersonic flows.

Trading Energy ETFs with an Improved Moving Average Strategy

In this paper we employ the recently introduced improved moving average methodology of Papailias and Thomakos (2011) and we apply it in two energy ETFs. We compare it to the standard moving average methodology and the buy and hold strategy. Investors who are interested in energy-related sectors and trade using averages, could benefit by forming their strategies based on this improved moving average methodology as it returns higher profits accompanied by decreased risk (measured in terms of drawdown).

Trading off dietary choices, physical exercise and cardiovascular disease risks

Despite several decades of decline, cardiovascular diseases are still the most common causes of death in Western societies. Sedentary living and high fat diets contribute to the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases. This paper analyses the trade-offs between lifestyle choices defined in terms of diet, physical activity, cost, and risk of cardiovascular disease that a representative sample of the population of Northern Ireland aged 40-65 are willing to make. Using computer assisted personal interviews, we survey 493 individuals at their homes using a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) questionnaire administered between February and July 2011 in Northern Ireland. Unlike most DCE studies for valuing public health programs, this questionnaire uses a tailored exercise, based on the individuals’ baseline choices. A “fat screener” module in the questionnaire links personal cardiovascular disease risk to each specific choice set in terms of dietary constituents. Individuals are informed about their real status quo risk of a fatal cardiovascular event, based on an initial set of health questions. Thus, actual risks, real diet and exercise choices are the elements that constitute the choice task. Our results show that our respondents are willing to pay for reducing mortality risk and, more importantly, are willing to change physical exercise and dietary behaviours. In particular, we find that to improve their lifestyles, overweight and obese people would be more likely to do more physical activity than to change their diets. Therefore, public policies aimed to target obesity and its related illnesses in Northern Ireland should invest public money in promoting physical activity rather than healthier diets.

A Tunable Encryption Scheme and Analysis of Fast Selective Encryption for CAVLC and CABAC in H.264/AVC

Recently, two fast selective encryption methods for context-adaptive variable length coding and context-adaptive binary arithmetic coding in H.264/AVC were proposed by Shahid et al. In this paper, it was demonstrated that these two methods are not as efficient as only encrypting the sign bits of nonzero coefficients. Experimental results showed that without encrypting the sign bits of nonzero coefficients, these two methods can not provide a perceptual scrambling effect. If a much stronger scrambling effect is required, intra prediction modes, and the sign bits of motion vectors can be encrypted together with the sign bits of nonzero coefficients. For practical applications, the required encryption scheme should be customized according to a user's specified requirement on the perceptual scrambling effect and the computational cost. Thus, a tunable encryption scheme combining these three methods is proposed for H.264/AVC. To simplify its implementation and reduce the computational cost, a simple control mechanism is proposed to adjust the control factors. Experimental results show that this scheme can provide different scrambling levels by adjusting three control factors with no or very little impact on the compression performance. The proposed scheme can run in real-time and its computational cost is minimal. The security of the proposed scheme is also discussed. It is secure against the replacement attack when all three control factors are set to one.

Numerical study of film cooling scheme on a blunt-nosed body in hypersonic flow

In hypersonic flights, the prediction of aerodynamic heating and the construction of a proper thermal protection system (TPS) are significantly important. In this study, the method of a film cooling technique, which is already the state of the art in cooling gas turbine engine, is proposed for a fully reusable and active TPS. Effectiveness of the film cooling scheme to reduce convective heating rates for a blunt nosed spacecraft flying at Mach number 6.56 and 40 degree angle of attack is investigated numerically. The inflow boundary conditions used the standard values at an altitude of 30 km. Computational domain consists of infinite rows of film cooling holes on the bottom of a blunt-nosed slab. Laminar and several turbulent calculations have been performed and compared each other. The influence of blowing ratios on the film cooling effectiveness is investigated. The results exhibit that the film cooling technique could be an effective method for an active cooling of blunt-nosed bodies in hypersonic flows.

Conjugate heat transfer and film cooling of a multi-stage cooling scheme

Cooling techniques play a key role in improving efficiency and power output of modern gas turbines. The conjugate technique of film and impingement cooling schemes is considered in this study. The Multi-Stage Cooling Scheme (MSCS) involves coolant passing from inside to outside turbine blade through two stages. The first stage; the coolant passes through first hole to internal gap where the impinging jet cools the external layer of the blade. Finally, the coolant passes through the internal gap to the second hole which has specific designed geometry for external film cooling. The effect of design parameters, such as, offset distance between two-stage holes, gap height, and inclination angle of the first hole, on upstream conjugate heat transfer rate and downstream film cooling effectiveness performance are investigated computationally. An Inconel 617 alloy with variable properties is selected for the solid material. The conjugate heat transfer and film cooling characteristics of MSCS are analyzed across blowing ratios of Br = 1 and 2 for density ratio, 2. This study presents upstream wall temperature distributions due to conjugate heat transfer for different gap design parameters. The maximum film cooling effectiveness with upstream conjugate heat transfer is less than adiabatic film cooling effectiveness by 24–34%. However, the full coverage of cooling effectiveness in spanwise direction can be obtained using internal cooling with conjugate heat transfer, whereas adiabatic film cooling effectiveness has narrow distribution.