The role of closed ecological systems in carbon cycle modelling

Acquiring a mechanistic understanding of the role of the biotic feedbacks on the links between atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperature is essential for trustworthy climate predictions. Currently, computer based simulations are the only available tool to estimate the global impact of the biotic feedbacks on future atmospheric CO2 and temperatures. Here we propose an alternative and complementary approaches by using materially closed and energetically open analogue/physical models of the carbon cycle. We argue that there is potential in using a materially closed approach to improve our understanding of the magnitude and sign of many biotic feedbacks, and that recent technological advance make this feasible. We also suggest how such systems could be designed and discuss the advantages and limitations of establishing physical models of the global carbon cycle.

Adding value to ecological risk assessment with population modeling

Current measures used to estimate the risks of toxic chemicals are not relevant to the goals of the environmental protection process, and thus ecological risk assessment (ERA) is not used as extensively as it should be as a basis for cost-effective management of environmental resources. Appropriate population models can provide a powerful basis for expressing ecological risks that better inform the environmental management process and thus that are more likely to be used by managers. Here we provide at least five reasons why population modeling should play an important role in bridging the gap between what we measure and what we want to protect. We then describe six actions needed for its implementation into management-relevant ERA.

Sizing reserves within a landscape: the roles of villagers' reactions and the ecological-socioeconomic setting

Traditionally, siting and sizing decisions for parks and reserves reflected ecological characteristics but typically failed to consider ecological costs created from displaced resource collection, welfare costs on nearby rural people, and enforcement costs. Using a spatial game-theoretic model that incorporates the interaction of socioeconomic and ecological settings, we show how incorporating more recent mandates that include rural welfare and surrounding landscapes can result in very different optimal sizing decisions. The model informs our discussion of recent forest management in Tanzania, reserve sizing and siting decisions, estimating reserve effectiveness, and determining patterns of avoided forest degradation in Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation programs.

Implications of climate change for expanding cities worldwide

This paper analyses the trends of the changing environmental effects within growing megacities as their diameters exceed 50–100 km and their populations rise beyond 30 million people. The authors consider how these effects are influenced by climate change, to which urban areas themselves contribute, caused by their increasing greenhouse gas emissions associated with rapidly expanding energy use. Other environmental and social factors are assessed, quantitatively and qualitatively, using detailed modelling of urban mesoscale meteorology, which shows how these factors can lead to large conurbations becoming more vulnerable to climatic and environmental hazards. The paper discusses the likely changes in meteorological and hydrological hazards in urban areas, both as the climate changes and the sizes of urban areas grow. Examples are given of how these risks are being reduced through innovations in warning and response systems, planning and infrastructure design, which should include refuges against extreme natural disasters. Policies are shown to be more effective when they are integrated and based on substantial community involvement. Some conclusions are drawn regarding how policies for the natural and artificial environment and for reducing many kinds of climate and hazard risk are related to future designs and planning of infrastructure and open spaces.

Sustainable urban development to 2050: complex transitions in the built environment of cities

The majority of the world’s population now live in cities. This poses great challenges, but also great opportunities in terms of tackling climate change, resource depletion and environmental degradation. Policy agendas have increasingly focused on how to develop and maintain ‘integrated sustainable urban development’, and a number of theoretical conceptualisations of urban transition have been formulated to help our thinking and understanding in both developed and developing countries. Drawing on examples around the world the paper aims to examine the key ‘critical success factors’ that need to be in place for cities to traverse a pathway to a more sustainable future in urban development terms by 2050. The paper explores how important the issues of ‘scale’ is in the context of complexity and fragmentation in the city’s built environment, identifies the lessons that can be learned for future sustainable urban development, and the further research which is needed to address future urban transitions to 2050.