Future of earthquake early warning : quantifying uncertainty and making fast automated decisions for applications

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications.

Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake.

To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that can capture the uncertainties in EEW information and the decision process is used. This approach is called the Performance-Based Earthquake Early Warning, which is based on the PEER Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering method. Use of surrogate models is suggested to improve computational efficiency. Also, new models are proposed to add the influence of lead time into the cost-benefit analysis. For example, a value of information model is used to quantify the potential value of delaying the activation of a mitigation action for a possible reduction of the uncertainty of EEW information in the next update. Two practical examples, evacuation alert and elevator control, are studied to illustrate the ePAD framework. Potential advanced EEW applications, such as the case of multiple-action decisions and the synergy of EEW and structural health monitoring systems, are also discussed.

Direct simulation of quantum dynamics in complex systems

Accurate simulation of quantum dynamics in complex systems poses a fundamental theoretical challenge with immediate application to problems in biological catalysis, charge transfer, and solar energy conversion. The varied length- and timescales that characterize these kinds of processes necessitate development of novel simulation methodology that can both accurately evolve the coupled quantum and classical degrees of freedom and also be easily applicable to large, complex systems. In the following dissertation, the problems of quantum dynamics in complex systems are explored through direct simulation using path-integral methods as well as application of state-of-the-art analytical rate theories.

Acceleration of ultra-thin electron layer.Analytical treatment compared with 1D-PIC simulation

In this paper, we apply an analytical model [V.V. Kulagin et al., Phys. Plasmas 14, 113101 (2007)] to describe the acceleration of an ultra-thin electron layer by a schematic single-cycle laser pulse and compare with one-dimensional particle-in-cell (1D-PIC) simulations. This is in the context of creating a relativistic mirror for coherent backscattering and supplements two related papers in this EPJD volume. The model is shown to reproduce the 1D-PIC results almost quantitatively for the short time of a few laser periods sufficient for the backscattering of ultra-short probe pulses.

Monte Carlo simulation of cooling induced by parametric resonance

We demonstrate that the parametric resonance in a magnetic quadrupole trap can be exploited to cool atoms by using Bird's method. In our programme the parametric resonance was realized by anisotropically modulating the trap potential. The modulation frequency dependences of temperature and fraction of the trapped atoms are explored. Furthermore, the temperature after the modulation as functions of the modulation amplitude and the mean elastic collision time are also studied. These results are valuable for the experiment of parametric resonance in a quadrupole trap.

Direct simulation of proton-coupled electron transfer reaction dynamics and mechanisms

Proton-coupled electron transfer (PCET) reactions are ubiquitous throughout chemistry and biology. However, challenges arise in both the the experimental and theoretical investigation of PCET reactions; the rare-event nature of the reactions and the coupling between quantum mechanical electron- and proton-transfer with the slower classical dynamics of the surrounding environment necessitates the development of robust simulation methodology. In the following dissertation, novel path-integral based methods are developed and employed for the direct simulation of the reaction dynamics and mechanisms of condensed-phase PCET.

Simulation of shock-induced bubble collapse with application to vascular injury in shockwave lithotripsy

Shockwave lithotripsy is a noninvasive medical procedure wherein shockwaves are repeatedly focused at the location of kidney stones in order to pulverize them. Stone comminution is thought to be the product of two mechanisms: the propagation of stress waves within the stone and cavitation erosion. However, the latter mechanism has also been implicated in vascular injury. In the present work, shock-induced bubble collapse is studied in order to understand the role that it might play in inducing vascular injury. A high-order accurate, shock- and interface-capturing numerical scheme is developed to simulate the three-dimensional collapse of the bubble in both the free-field and inside a vessel phantom. The primary contributions of the numerical study are the characterization of the shock-bubble and shock-bubble-vessel interactions across a large parameter space that includes clinical shockwave lithotripsy pressure amplitudes, problem geometry and tissue viscoelasticity, and the subsequent correlation of these interactions to vascular injury. Specifically, measurements of the vessel wall pressures and displacements, as well as the finite strains in the fluid surrounding the bubble, are utilized with available experiments in tissue to evaluate damage potential. Estimates are made of the smallest injurious bubbles in the microvasculature during both the collapse and jetting phases of the bubble's life cycle. The present results suggest that bubbles larger than 1 μm in diameter could rupture blood vessels under clinical SWL conditions.