Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

Wind power generation differs from conventional thermal generation due to the stochastic nature of wind. Thus wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of balancing supply and demand in any electricity system, given the uncertainty associated with the wind farm power output. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the need for additional balancing energy and reserve power to integrate wind power. Wind power forecasting tools enable better dispatch, scheduling and unit commitment of thermal generators, hydro plant and energy storage plant and more competitive market trading as wind power ramps up and down on the grid. This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods and advances in wind power forecasting and prediction. Firstly, numerical wind prediction methods from global to local scales, ensemble forecasting, upscaling and downscaling processes are discussed. Next the statistical and machine learning approach methods are detailed. Then the techniques used for benchmarking and uncertainty analysis of forecasts are overviewed, and the performance of various approaches over different forecast time horizons is examined. Finally, current research activities, challenges and potential future developments are appraised.

All-optical signal processing using semiconductor optical amplifiers for next generation optical networks

This thesis details an experimental and simulation investigation of some novel all-optical signal processing techniques for future optical communication networks. These all-optical techniques include modulation format conversion, phase discrimination and clock recovery. The methods detailed in this thesis use the nonlinearities associated with semiconductor optical amplifiers (SOA) to manipulate signals in the optical domain. Chapter 1 provides an introduction into the work detailed in this thesis, discusses the increased demand for capacity in today’s optical fibre networks and finally explains why all-optical signal processing may be of interest for future optical networks. Chapter 2 discusses the relevant background information required to fully understand the all-optical techniques demonstrated in this thesis. Chapter 3 details some pump-probe measurement techniques used to calculate the gain and phase recovery times of a long SOA. A remarkably fast gain recovery is observed and the wavelength dependent nature of this recovery is investigated. Chapter 4 discusses the experimental demonstration of an all-optical modulation conversion technique which can convert on-off- keyed data into either duobinary or alternative mark inversion. In Chapter 5 a novel phase sensitive frequency conversion scheme capable of extracting the two orthogonal components of a quadrature phase modulated signal into two separate frequencies is demonstrated. Chapter 6 investigates a novel all-optical clock recovery technique for phase modulated optical orthogonal frequency division multiplexing superchannels and finally Chapter 7 provides a brief conclusion.

Heterogeneous molybdate catalysts for the generation of singlet molecular oxygen (1Δg) from H2O2

The immobilisation of molybdate on Mg,Al-LDH leads to an active, heterogeneous catalyst that generates singlet molecular oxygen from hydrogen peroxide in the absence of soluble base

Scale-wise evolution of rainfall probability density functions fingerprints the rainfall generation mechanism

© 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.The cross-scale probabilistic structure of rainfall intensity records collected over time scales ranging from hours to decades at sites dominated by both convective and frontal systems is investigated. Across these sites, intermittency build-up from slow to fast time-scales is analyzed in terms of heavy tailed and asymmetric signatures in the scale-wise evolution of rainfall probability density functions (pdfs). The analysis demonstrates that rainfall records dominated by convective storms develop heavier-Tailed power law pdfs toward finer scales when compared with their frontal systems counterpart. Also, a concomitant marked asymmetry build-up emerges at such finer time scales. A scale-dependent probabilistic description of such fat tails and asymmetry appearance is proposed based on a modified q-Gaussian model, able to describe the cross-scale rainfall pdfs in terms of the nonextensivity parameter q, a lacunarity (intermittency) correction and a tail asymmetry coefficient, linked to the rainfall generation mechanism.

Improving the generation of decision objectives

Real decision makers exhibit significant shortcomings in the generation of objectives for decisions that they face. Prior research has illustrated the magnitude of this shortcoming but not its causes. In this paper, we identify two distinct impediments to the generation of decision objectives: not thinking broadly enough about the range of relevant objectives, and not thinking deeply enough to articulate every objective within the range that is considered. To test these explanations and explore ways of stimulating a more comprehensive set of objectives, we present three experiments involving a variety of interventions: the provision of sample objectives, organization of objectives by category, and direct challenges to do better, with or without a warning that important objectives are missing. The use of category names and direct challenges with a warning both led to improvements in the quantity of objectives generated without impacting their quality; other interventions yielded less improvement. We conclude by discussing the relevance of our findings to decision analysis and offering prescriptive implications for the elicitation of decision objectives. © 2010 INFORMS.

Local kinetic interpretation of entropy production through reversed diffusion.

The time reversal of stochastic diffusion processes is revisited with emphasis on the physical meaning of the time-reversed drift and the noise prescription in the case of multiplicative noise. The local kinematics and mechanics of free diffusion are linked to the hydrodynamic description. These properties also provide an interpretation of the Pope-Ching formula for the steady-state probability density function along with a geometric interpretation of the fluctuation-dissipation relation. Finally, the statistics of the local entropy production rate of diffusion are discussed in the light of local diffusion properties, and a stochastic differential equation for entropy production is obtained using the Girsanov theorem for reversed diffusion. The results are illustrated for the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.

Placement of Small Vertical Axis Wind Turbine to Maximize Power Generation Influenced by Architectural and Geographic Interfaces in Urban Areas

Current methods for large-scale wind collection are unviable in urban areas. In order to investigate the feasibility of generating power from winds in these environments, we sought to optimize placements of small vertical-axis wind turbines in areas of artificially-generated winds. We explored both vehicular transportation and architecture as sources of artificial wind, using a combination of anemometer arrays, global positioning system (GPS), and weather report data. We determined that transportation-generated winds were not significant enough for turbine implementation. In addition, safety and administrative concerns restricted the implementation of said wind turbines along roadways for transportation-generated wind collection. Wind measurements from our architecture collection were applied in models that can help predict other similar areas with artificial wind, as well as the optimal placement of a wind turbine in those areas.

Supercontinuum Generation by Stimulated Raman Scattering and Parametric Four-Wave Mixing in Photonic Crystal Fibers

Supercontinuum generation is investigated experimentally and numerically in a highly nonlinear indexguiding photonic crystal optical fiber in a regime in which self-phase modulation of the pump wave makes a negligible contribution to spectral broadening. An ultrabroadband octave-spanning white-light continuum is generated with 60-ps pump pulses of subkilowatt peak power. The primary mechanism of spectral broadening is identified as the combined action of stimulated Raman scattering and parametric four-wave mixing. The observation of a strong anti-Stokes Raman component reveals the importance of the coupling between stimulated Raman scattering and parametric four-wave mixing in highly nonlinear photonic crystal fibers and also indicates that non-phase-matched processes contribute to the continuum. Additionally, the pump input polarization affects the generated continuum through the influence of polarization modulational instability. The experimental results are in good agreement with detailed numerical simulations. These findings demonstrate the importance of index-guiding photonic crystal fibers for the design of picosecond and nanosecond supercontinuum light sources. © 2002 Optical Society of America.

White-Light Supercontinuum Generation with 60-ps Pump Pulses in a Photonic Crystal Fiber

The generation of a spatially single-mode white-light supercontinuum has been observed in a photonic crystal fiber pumped with 60-ps pulses of subkilowatt peak power. The spectral broadening is identified as being due to the combined action of stimulated Raman scattering and parametric four-wave-mixing generation, with a negligible contribution from the self-phase modulation of the pump pulses. The experimental results are in good agreement with detailed numerical simulations. These findings demonstrate that ultrafast femtosecond pulses are not needed for efficient supercontinuum generation in photonic crystal fibers. © 2001 Optical Society of America.

Supercontinuum generation in air-silica microstructured fibers with nanosecond and femtosecond pulse pumping

We study the generation of supercontinua in air-silica microstructured fibers by both nanosecond and femtosecond pulse excitation. In the nanosecond experiments, a 300-nm broadband visible continuum was generated in a 1.8-m length of fiber pumped at 532 nm by 0.8-ns pulses from a frequency-doubled passively Q-switched Nd:YAG microchip laser. At this wavelength, the dominant mode excited under the conditions of continuum generation is the LP 11 mode, and, with nanosecond pumping, self-phase modulation is negligible and the continuum generation is dominated by the interplay of Raman and parametric effects. The spectral extent of the continuum is well explained by calculations of the parametric gain curves for four-wave mixing about the zero-dispersion wavelength of the LP11 mode. In the femtosecond experiments, an 800-nm broad-band visible and near-infrared continuum has been generated in a 1-m length of fiber pumped at 780 nm by 100-fs pulses from a Kerr-lens model-locked Ti:sapphire laser. At this wavelength, excitation and continuum generation occur in the LP01 mode, and the spectral width of the observed continuum is shown to be consistent with the phase-matching bandwidth for parametric processes calculated for this fiber mode. In addition, numerical simulations based on an extended nonlinear Schrödinger equation were used to model supercontinuum generation in the femtosecond regime, with the simulation results reproducing the major features of the experimentally observed spectrum. © 2002 Optical Society of America.

Fundamental limits to few-cycle pulse generation from compression of broadband supercontinua generated in photonic crystal fiber

The compression properties of octave-spanning supercontinuum spectra generated in photonic crystal fibers are studied using stochastic nonlinear Schrödinger equation simulations. The conditions under which sub-5 fs pulses can be obtained after compression are identified. © 2004 Optical Society of America.

Numerical Simulations and Coherence Properties of Supercontinuum Generation in Photonic Crystal and Tapered Optical Fibers

Numerical simulations have been used to study broad-band supercontinuum generation in optical fibers with dispersion and nonlinearity characteristics typical and photonic crystal or tapered fibers structures. The simulations include optical shock and Raman nonlinearity terms, with quantum noise taken into account phenomenologically by including in the input field a noise seed of one photon per mode with random phase. For input pulses of 150-fs duration injected in the anomalous dispersion regime, the effect of modulational instability is shown to lead to severe temporal jitter in the output, and associated fluctuations in the spectral amplitude and phase across the generated supercontinuum. The spectral phase fluctuations are quantified by performing multiple simulations and calculating both the standard deviation of the phase and, more rigorously, the degree of first-order coherence as a function of wavelength across the spectrum. By performing simulations over a range of input pulse durations and wavelengths, we can identify the conditions under which coherent supercontinua with a well-defined spectral phase are generated.

Cross-correlation frequency resolved optical gating analysis of broadband continuum generation in photonic crystal fiber: Simulations and experiments

Numerical simulations are used to study the temporal and spectral characteristics of broadband supercontinua generated in photonic crystal fiber. In particular, the simulations are used to follow the evolution with propagation distance of the temporal intensity, the spectrum, and the cross-correlation frequency resolved optical gating (XFROG) trace. The simulations allow several important physical processes responsible for supercontinuum generation to be identified and, moreover, illustrate how the XFROG trace provides an intuitive means of interpreting correlated temporal and spectral features of the supercontinuum. Good qualitative agreement with preliminary XFROG measurements is observed. © 2002 Optical Society of America.

Fundamental Noise Limitations to Supercontinuum Generation in Microstructure Fiber

Broadband noise on supercontinuum spectra generated in microstructure fiber is shown to lead to amplitude fluctuations as large as 50% for certain input laser pulse parameters. We study this noise using both experimental measurements and numerical simulations with a generalized stochastic nonlinear Schrödinger equation, finding good quantitative agreement over a range of input-pulse energies and chirp values. This noise is shown to arise from nonlinear amplification of two quantum noise inputs: the input-pulse shot noise and the spontaneous Raman scattering down the fiber.