Inference about the number of contributors to a DNA mixture: Comparative analyses of a Bayesian network approach and the maximum allele count method.

In the forensic examination of DNA mixtures, the question of how to set the total number of contributors (N) presents a topic of ongoing interest. Part of the discussion gravitates around issues of bias, in particular when assessments of the number of contributors are not made prior to considering the genotypic configuration of potential donors. Further complication may stem from the observation that, in some cases, there may be numbers of contributors that are incompatible with the set of alleles seen in the profile of a mixed crime stain, given the genotype of a potential contributor. In such situations, procedures that take a single and fixed number contributors as their output can lead to inferential impasses. Assessing the number of contributors within a probabilistic framework can help avoiding such complication. Using elements of decision theory, this paper analyses two strategies for inference on the number of contributors. One procedure is deterministic and focuses on the minimum number of contributors required to 'explain' an observed set of alleles. The other procedure is probabilistic using Bayes' theorem and provides a probability distribution for a set of numbers of contributors, based on the set of observed alleles as well as their respective rates of occurrence. The discussion concentrates on mixed stains of varying quality (i.e., different numbers of loci for which genotyping information is available). A so-called qualitative interpretation is pursued since quantitative information such as peak area and height data are not taken into account. The competing procedures are compared using a standard scoring rule that penalizes the degree of divergence between a given agreed value for N, that is the number of contributors, and the actual value taken by N. Using only modest assumptions and a discussion with reference to a casework example, this paper reports on analyses using simulation techniques and graphical models (i.e., Bayesian networks) to point out that setting the number of contributors to a mixed crime stain in probabilistic terms is, for the conditions assumed in this study, preferable to a decision policy that uses categoric assumptions about N.

Reproducibility of straylight measurement by C-Quant for assessment of retinal straylight using the compensation comparison method.

BACKGROUND: Straylight gives the appearance of a veil of light thrown over a person's retinal image when there is a strong light source present. We examined the reproducibility of the measurements by C-Quant, and assessed its correlation to characteristics of the eye and subjects' age. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: Five repeated straylight measurements were taken using the dominant eye of 45 healthy subjects (age 21-59) with a BCVA of 20/20: 14 emmetropic, 16 myopic, eight hyperopic and seven with astigmatism. We assessed the extent of reproducibility of straylight measures using the intraclass correlation coefficient. RESULTS: The mean straylight value of all measurements was 1.01 (SD 0.23, median 0.97, interquartile range 0.85-1.1). Per 10 years of age, straylight increased in average by 0.10 (95%CI 0.04 to 0.16, p < 0.01]. We found no independent association of refraction (range -5.25 dpt to +2 dpt) on straylight values (0.001; 95%CI -0.022 to 0.024, p = 0.92). Compared to emmetropic subjects, myopia reduced straylight (-.011; -0.024 to 0.02, p = 0.11), whereas higher straylight values (0.09; -0.01 to 0.20, p = 0.09) were observed in subjects with blue irises as compared to dark-colored irises when correcting for age. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) of repeated measurements was 0.83 (95%CI 0.76 to 0.90). CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed that straylight measurements with the C-Quant had a high reproducibility, i.e. a lack of large intra-observer variability, making it appropriate to be applied in long-term follow-up studies assessing the long-term effect of surgical procedures on the quality of vision.