The solar influence on the probability of relatively cold UK winters in the future

Recent research has suggested that relatively cold UK winters are more common when solar activity is low (Lockwood et al 2010 Environ. Res. Lett. 5 024001). Solar activity during the current sunspot minimum has fallen to levels unknown since the start of the 20th century (Lockwood 2010 Proc. R. Soc. A 466 303–29) and records of past solar variations inferred from cosmogenic isotopes (Abreu et al 2008 Geophys. Res. Lett. 35 L20109) and geomagnetic activity data (Lockwood et al 2009 Astrophys. J. 700 937–44) suggest that the current grand solar maximum is coming to an end and hence that solar activity can be expected to continue to decline. Combining cosmogenic isotope data with the long record of temperatures measured in central England, we estimate how solar change could influence the probability in the future of further UK winters that are cold, relative to the hemispheric mean temperature, if all other factors remain constant. Global warming is taken into account only through the detrending using mean hemispheric temperatures. We show that some predictive skill may be obtained by including the solar effect.

Was UV spectral solar irradiance lower during the recent low sunspot minimum?

A detailed analysis is presented of solar UV spectral irradiance for the period between May 2003 and August 2005, when data are available from both the Solar Ultraviolet pectral Irradiance Monitor (SUSIM) instrument (on board the pper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) spacecraft) and the Solar Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) instrument (on board the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satellite). The ultimate aim is to develop a data composite that can be used to accurately determine any differences between the “exceptional” solar minimum at the end of solar cycle 23 and the previous minimum at the end of solar cycle 22 without having to rely on proxy data to set the long‐term change. SUSIM data are studied because they are the only data available in the “SOLSTICE gap” between the end of available UARS SOLSTICE data and the start of the SORCE data. At any one wavelength the two data sets are considered too dissimilar to be combined into a meaningful composite if any one of three correlations does not exceed a threshold of 0.8. This criterion removes all wavelengths except those in a small range between 156 nm and 208 nm, the longer wavelengths of which influence ozone production and heating in the lower stratosphere. Eight different methods are employed to intercalibrate the two data sequences. All methods give smaller changes between the minima than are seen when the data are not adjusted; however, correcting the SUSIM data to allow for an exponentially decaying offset drift gives a composite that is largely consistent with the unadjusted data from the SOLSTICE instruments on both UARS and SORCE and in which the recent minimum is consistently lower in the wave band studied.

The distributed work of local action: interaction amongst virtually collocated research teams

Existing research on synchronous remote working in CSCW has highlighted the troubles that can arise because actions at one site are (partially) unavailable to remote colleagues. Such ‘local action’ is routinely characterised as a nuisance, a distraction, subordinate and the like. This paper explores interconnections between ‘local action’ and ‘distributed work’ in the case of a research team virtually collocated through ‘MiMeG’. MiMeG is an e-Social Science tool that facilitates ‘distributed data sessions’ in which social scientists are able to remotely collaborate on the real-time analysis of video data. The data are visible and controllable in a shared workspace and participants are additionally connected via audio conferencing. The findings reveal that whilst the (partial) unavailability of local action is at times problematic, it is also used as a resource for coordinating work. The paper considers how local action is interactionally managed in distributed data sessions and concludes by outlining implications of the analysis for the design and study of technologies to support group-to-group collaboration.

Solar cycle 24: implications for energetic particles and long-term space climate change

The recent solar minimum was the longest and deepest of the space age, with the lowest average sunspot numbers for nearly a century. The Sun appears to be exiting a grand solar maximum (GSM) of activity which has persisted throughout the space age, and is headed into a significantly quieter period. Indeed, initial observations of solar cycle 24 (SC24) continue to show a relatively low heliospheric magnetic field strength and sunspot number (R), despite the average latitude of sunspots and the inclination of the heliospheric current sheet showing the rise to solar maximum is well underway. We extrapolate the available SC24 observations forward in time by assuming R will continue to follow a similar form to previous cycles, despite the end of the GSM, and predict a very weak cycle 24, with R peaking at ∼65–75 around the middle/end of 2012. Similarly, we estimate the heliospheric magnetic field strength will peak around 6nT. We estimate that average galactic cosmic ray fluxes above 1GV rigidity will be ∼10% higher in SC24 than SC23 and that the probability of a large SEP event during this cycle is 0.8, compared to 0.5 for SC23. Comparison of the SC24 R estimates with previous ends of GSMs inferred from 9300 years of cosmogenic isotope data places the current evolution of the Sun and heliosphere in the lowest 5% of cases, suggesting Maunder Minimum conditions are likely within the next 40 years.

Antioxidant capacity and phenolic composition of different woods used in cooperage

This study has investigated the antioxidant capacity of different woods used in cooperage and the effect of the botanical species of wood on this capacity. Quercus robur and Castanea sativa were the species with the highest antioxidant capacity, due to their relatively high content of phenolic compounds. However, the phenolic content of Prunus avium samples was very low, also reflected in its antioxidant capacity. All measurements of antioxidant capacity were consistent with the content and composition of the phenolic compounds detected in the wood samples. The major contributors to the antioxidant capacity were identified as phenolic acids, including gallic, protocatechuic, p-coumaric and ellagic acid and all the ellagitannins, due to their characteristic structure.

The distribution of the ring current: Cluster observations

Extending previous studies, a full-circle investigation of the ring current has been made using Cluster 4-spacecraft observations near perigee, at times when the Cluster array had relatively small separations and nearly regular tetrahedral configurations, and when the Dst index was greater than −30 nT (non-storm conditions). These observations result in direct estimations of the near equatorial current density at all magnetic local times (MLT) for the first time and with sufficient accuracy, for the following observations. The results confirm that the ring current flows westward and show that the in situ average measured current density (sampled in the radial range accessed by Cluster 4–4.5RE) is asymmetric in MLT, ranging from 9 to 27 nAm−2. The direction of current is shown to be very well ordered for the whole range of MLT. Both of these results are in line with previous studies on partial ring extent. The magnitude of the current density, however, reveals a distinct asymmetry: growing from 10 to 27 nAm−2 as azimuth reduces from about 12:00MLT to 03:00 and falling from 20 to 10 nAm−2 less steadily as azimuth reduces from 24:00 to 12:00MLT. This result has not been reported before and we suggest it could reflect a number of effects. Firstly, we argue it is consistent with the operation of region-2 field aligned-currents (FACs), which are expected to flow upward into the ring current around 09:00MLT and downward out of the ring current around 14:00MLT. Secondly, we note that it is also consistent with a possible asymmetry in the radial distribution profile of current density (resulting in higher peak at 4– 4.5RE). We note that part of the enhanced current could reflect an increase in the mean AE activity (during the periods in which Cluster samples those MLT).

Asynchronous flowering and within-plant flowering diversity in wheat and the implications for crop resilience to heat

Self-pollination dominates in wheat , with a small level of out-crossing due to flowering asynchrony and male sterility. However, the timing and synchrony of male and female flowering in wheat is a crucial determinant of seed set and may be an important factor affecting gene flow and resilience to climate change. Here, a methodology is presented for assessing the timing and synchrony of flowering in wheat. From the onset of flowering until the end of anthesis, the anther and stigma activity of each floret was assessed on the first five developing ears in potted plants grown under ambient conditions and originating from cv Paragon or cvs Spark-Rialto backgrounds. At harvest maturity, seed presence, size and weight was recorded for each floret scored. The synchrony between pollen dehiscence and stigma collapse within a flower was dependent on its relative position in a spike and within a floret. Determined on the basis of synchrony within each flower, the level of pollination by pollen originating from other flowers reached approximately 30% and did not change throughout the duration of flowering. A modelling exercise parameterised by flowering observations indicated that the temporal and spatial variability of anther activity within and between spikes may influence the relative resilience of wheat to sudden, extreme climatic events which has direct relevance to predicted future climate scenarios in the UK.

The Clean Development Mechanism as ethical development? Reconciling emissions trading and local development

This paper examines the ethics of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) in its architecture, processes and outcomes and its potential to allocate resources to the poor as ‘ethical development’. Two specific examples of CDM projects help us to explore some of the quandaries that seem to be quickly defining operating procedure for the CDM in its efforts to bring entitlementsto the poor. The paper concludes with reflections on the normative and social complications of the CDM and closes with three key areas of further investigation.

Cloud base height and cosmic rays

Cosmic rays modify current flow in the global atmospheric electrical circuit. Charging at horizontal layer cloud edges has been observed to be consistent with global circuit vertical current flow through the cloud, which can modify the properties of small and pure water droplets. Studies have been hampered by the absence of cloud edge observations, hence cloud base height information is investigated here. Cloud base height measured at the Lerwick Observatory, Shetland, UK, is analysed using threshold tests and spectral analysis. The cloud base height distributions for low cloud (cloud base less than 800 m) are found to vary with cosmic ray conditions. Further, 27 day and 1.68 year periodicities characteristic of cosmic ray variations are present, weakly, in the cloud base height data of stratiform clouds, when such periodicities are present in neutron monitor cosmic ray data. These features support the idea of propagation of heliospheric variability into layer clouds, through the global atmospheric electric circuit.