Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model

This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets. According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow an autoregression process of order one. The model is applied to the US and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and bootstrapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly persistent compared to rent growth. The filtered expected returns is considered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high statistical predictability evidence for the UK. Overall, it is found that the present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the UK housing markets.

A test of long memory hypothesis based on self-similarity

This paper develops a new test of true versus spurious long memory, based on log-periodogram estimation of the long memory parameter using skip-sampled data. A correction factor is derived to overcome the bias in this estimator due to aliasing. The procedure is designed to be used in the context of a conventional test of significance of the long memory parameter, and composite test procedure described that has the properties of known asymptotic size and consistency. The test is implemented using the bootstrap, with the distribution under the null hypothesis being approximated using a dependent-sample bootstrap technique to approximate short-run dependence following fractional differencing. The properties of the test are investigated in a set of Monte Carlo experiments. The procedure is illustrated by applications to exchange rate volatility and dividend growth series.

Revisiting Shiller’s excess volatility hypothesis

One of the cornerstone of financial anomalies is that there exists money making opportunities. Shiller’s excess volatility theory is re-investigated from the perspective of a trading strategy where the present value is computed using a series of simple econometric models to forecast the present value. The results show that the excess volatility may not be exploited given the data available until time t. However, when learning is introduced empirically, the simple trading strategy may offer profits, but which are likely to disappear once transaction costs are considered.

Representations and the Corruption of Goods

The traditional view of the economic agent is of an individual who is self-interested, rational and perceives the world “correctly”. However, there is a lot of experimental and other evidence that undermines this view of agents. It is argued that an attempt to model these agents properly requires the cognitive science idea of a mental representation- a mental state with content. It is shown that this idea gives economists resources to discuss critiques of economics by Sandel (2012) and Grant (2012). In particular, it allows us to think clearly about the notion of goods being “corrupted” by a change in context from a non-market to a market situation.

'Modern' Phillips Curves and the Implications For The Statistical Process of Inflation

'Modern' theories of the Phillips curve imply that inflation is an integrated, or near integrated process. This paper explains this implication and why these 'modern' theories are logically inconsistent with what is commonly known about the statistical process of inflation.

Transcriptional regulation of CD4 gene expression by T cell factor-1/beta-catenin pathway.

By interacting with MHC class II molecules, CD4 facilitates lineage development as well as activation of Th cells. Expression of physiological levels of CD4 requires a proximal CD4 enhancer to stimulate basic CD4 promoter activity. T cell factor (TCF)-1/beta-catenin pathway has previously been shown to regulate thymocyte survival via up-regulating antiapoptotic molecule Bcl-xL. By both loss and gain of function studies, in this study we show additional function of TCF-1/beta-catenin pathway in the regulation of CD4 expression in vivo. Mice deficient in TCF-1 displayed significantly reduced protein and mRNA levels of CD4 in CD4+ CD8+ double-positive (DP) thymocytes. A transgene encoding Bcl-2 restored survival but not CD4 levels of TCF-1(-/-) DP cells. Thus, TCF-1-regulated survival and CD4 expression are two separate events. In contrast, CD4 levels were restored on DP TCF-1(-/-) cells by transgenic expression of a wild-type TCF-1, but not a truncated TCF-1 that lacks a domain required for interacting with beta-catenin. Furthermore, forced expression of a stabilized beta-catenin, a coactivator of TCF-1, resulted in up-regulation of CD4. TCF-1 or stabilized beta-catenin greatly stimulated activity of a CD4 reporter gene driven by a basic CD4 promoter and the CD4 enhancer. However, mutation of a potential TCF binding site located within the enhancer abrogated TCF-1 and beta-catenin-mediated activation of CD4 reporter. Finally, recruitment of TCF-1 to CD4 enhancer was detected in wild-type but not TCF-1 null mice by chromatin-immunoprecipitation analysis. Thus, our results demonstrated that TCF/beta-catenin pathway enhances CD4 expression in vivo by recruiting TCF-1 to stimulate CD4 enhancer activity.

Adult maternal body size matters.

Comment on: Horta BL, Gigante DP, Osmond C, Barros FC, Victora CG. Intergenerational effect of weight gain in childhood on offspring birthweight. Int J Epidemiol. 2009 Jun;38(3):724-32. PMID: 19376883.

Spectrum of Morphologic Changes of Lymph Nodes in HIV Infection

Cervical lymph nodes biopsies from 31 HIV positive patients (with or without AIDS) were studied by histologic methods and immunohistochemistry (StreptABC staining of paraffin sections) to identify cellular and extracellular matrix components. The results were the following: (1) the biopsies were included in the stages of follicular hyperplasia without fragmentation FH-FF (4 cases); follicular hyperplasia with follicular fragmentation FH+FF (16 cases); follicular involution FI (6 cases) and diffuse pattern DP (5 cases); (2) the most important alteration was the germinal centers disruption due to follicle lysis, which began in the light zone; (3) there was coincidence between intrafollicular hemorrhages and segmental hyaline mycroangiopathy; (4) during the progression of the disease occurred: (a) an increase in the number of mast cells, CD68+ and Mac387+ macrophages; (b) a diffuse augment of collagen III, elastic fibers, laminin, fibronectin and proteoglycans; (c) maintenance of Factor VIII - related antigens in the vascular endothelial cells, with decrease in the expression of Ulex-Europeus I lectin. Follicular hyperplasia (FH-FF or FH+FF) was the most common histologic pattern recognized in the lymph nodes of patients without AIDS and follicular involution and difuse pattern were seen in those who had AIDS. The results indicate that the lymph node biopsies may provide important information about the evolutive stage of the disease and its prognosis.

The beta-catenin--TCF-1 pathway ensures CD4(+)CD8(+) thymocyte survival.

The association of trans-acting T cell factors (TCFs) or lymphoid enhancer factor 1 (LEF-1) with their coactivator beta-catenin mediates transient transcriptional responses to extracellular Wnt signals. We show here that T cell maturation depends on the presence of the beta-catenin--binding domain in TCF-1. This domain is necessary to mediate the survival of immature CD4(+)CD8(+) double-positive (DP) thymocytes. Accelerated spontaneous thymocyte death in the absence of TCF-1 correlates with aberrantly low expression of the anti-apoptotic protein Bcl-x(L). Increasing anti-apoptotic effectors in thymocytes by the use of a Bcl-2 transgene rescued TCF-1-deficient DP thymocytes from apoptosis. Thus, TCF-1, upon association with beta-catenin, transiently ensures the survival of immature T cells, which enables them to generate and edit T cell receptor (TCR) alpha chains and attempt TCR-mediated positive selection.

Defectos paradójicos en regiones con necrosis miocárdica. análisis mediante gated-spect de perfusión miocárdica.

Objectius: Valorar el significat dels defectes paradoxals (DP) segmentaris (captació en esforç més gran que en repòs) a la gated-SPECT (Single Photon Emission Computer Tomography) de perfusió miocàrdica amb compostos tecneciats en regions amb necrosi miocàrdica. Material i mètodes: Es van revisar 1764 SPECT de perfusió miocàrdica estrès-repòs consecutives de pacients amb infart (IM) previ i es van identificar 117 pacients (6,6%) en els quals els DPs corresponien a una regió amb necrosi miocàrdica. Es van valorar els criteris gammagràfics de viabilitat (intensitat del defecte, valor d'aquesta intensitat ponderat pel nombre de segments compromesos-VIP-, la motilitat i l'engrossiment miocàrdic sistòlic) en els segments d'aquestes regions i les característiques de l'artèria responsable en els 96 pacients en els quals s'havia practicat una coronariografia. Resultats: Es van analitzar 160 necrosis, 125 (75%) paradoxals (67 (54%) en regió AnteroSeptoApical i 58 (46%) en regió InferoLateral) i 35 (25%) no paradoxals (19 (54%) ASA i 16 ( 46%) IL). Els valors de severitat de la necrosi i del VIP van ser inferiors en l'estudi d'estrès respecte al repòs i la diferència d'aquests va ser sempre negativa, evidenciant un comportament gammagràfic paradoxal. Per contra, aquests valors van ser inferiors al repòs respecte a l'estrès en les necrosi no paradoxals posant de manifest un comportament gammagràfic de mínima o nul reversibilitat. Així mateix, es van trobar alteracions lleus en la motilitat i engrossiment de les necrosi paradoxals i moderats en les necrosi no paradoxals. Es van trobar 102 necrosis amb DP i coronariografia dels quals, 84 (88%) tenien permeabilitat a l'artèria responsable de la necrosi i 12 pacients (12%) tenien circulació colateral per compensar l'oclusió de l'artèria responsable. Conclusions: Tots els segments amb DP en regions amb necrosi complien criteris gammagràfics de viabilitat en les imatges d'estrès, considerant aquestes imatges millors per a l'avaluació d'aquest tipus de lesions. El vas responsable de la regió amb DP es trobava permeable o bé presentava circulació colateral evident en els casos en què la coronària es trobava closa.

Hepatitis C prevalence and risk factors in hemodialysis patients in Central Brazil: a survey by polymerase chain reaction and serological methods

An hemodialysis population in Central Brazil was screened by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and serological methods to assess the prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and to investigate associated risk factors. All hemodialysis patients (n=428) were interviewed in eight dialysis units in Goiânia city. Blood samples were collected and serum samples screened for anti-HCV antibodies by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Positive samples were retested for confirmation with a line immunoassay (LIA). All samples were also tested for HCV RNA by the PCR. An overall prevalence of 46.7% (CI 95%: 42-51.5) was found, ranging from 20.7% (CI 95%: 8.8-38.1) to 90.4% (CI 95%: 79.9-96.4) depending on the dialysis unit. Of the 428 patients, 185 were found to be seropositive by ELISA, and 167 were confirmed positive by LIA, resulting in an anti-HCV prevalence of 39%. A total of 131 patients were HCV RNA-positive. HCV viremia was present in 63.5% of the anti-HCV-positive patients and in 10.3% of the anti-HCV-negative patients. Univariate analysis of risk factors showed that the number of previous blood transfusions, transfusion of blood before mandatory screening for anti-HCV, length of time on hemodialysis, and treatment in multiple units were associated with HCV positivity. However, multivariate analysis revealed that blood transfusion before screening for anti-HCV and length of time on hemodialysis were significantly associated with HCV infection in this population. These data suggest that nosocomial transmission may play a role in the spread of HCV in the dialysis units studied. In addition to anti-HCV screening, HCV RNA detection is necessary for the diagnosis of HCV infection in hemodialysis patients.

Efectes de l’administració de tpa combinat amb dipyridamole sobre cèl•lules endotelials cerebrals humanes sotmeses a deprivació d’oxigen i glucosa

El DP és un agent usat de forma comú en la prevenció secundària de l’ictus per les seves propietats antiplaquetars. Ha estat proposat com a possible teràpia coadjuvant del tractament trombolític en fase aguda de l’ictus isquèmic amb rtPA neuroprotector per les seves propietats neuroprotectores, antiinflamatòries i antioxidants. En el present treball s’analitza la toxicitat de l’administració d’rtPA en cèl•lules endotelials cerebrals humanes sotmeses a isquèmia, així com els seus efectes sobre l’activació de MMPs. Posteriorment es combina l’administració d’rtPA amb Dipyridamole i s’analitzen els efectes en la toxicitat cel•lular i l’expressió d’MMPs.

Prevalence and genotypes of GB Virus C/Hepatitis G virus among blood donors in Central Brazil

A survey was conducted in a blood donor population of Central Brazil aiming to investigate the prevalence of GB virus C (GBV-C)/hepatitis G virus (HGV) infection and also to analyze the virus genotypes distribution. A total of 241 voluntary blood donors were interviewed at the State Blood Bank in Goiânia, State of Goiás, Brazil. Blood samples were collected and serum samples tested for GBV-C/HGV RNA by polymerase chain reaction. Genotypes were determined by restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis. Seventeen samples were GBV-C/HGV RNA-positive, resulting in a prevalence of 7.1% (95% CI: 4.2-11.1). A significant trend of GBV-C/HGV RNA positivity in relation to age was observed, with the highest prevalence in donors between 29-39 years old. Ten infected individuals were characterized by reporting parenteral (30%), sexual (18%), both (6%) and intrafamiliar (6%) transmission. However, 7 (40%) GBV-C/HGV RNA-positive donors did not mention any potential transmission route. RFLP analysis revealed the presence of genotypes 1 and 2 of GBV-C/HGV; more precisely, 10 (58.9%) samples were found belonging to the 2b subtype, 4 (23.5%) to the 2a subtype, and 3 (17.6%) to genotype 1. The present data indicate an intermediate endemicity of GBV-C/HGV infection among this blood donor population, and a predominant circulation of genotype 2 (subtype 2b) in Central Brazil.