Impact of long-range correlations on trend detection in total ozone

Total ozone trends are typically studied using linear regression models that assume a first-order autoregression of the residuals [so-called AR(1) models]. We consider total ozone time series over 60°S–60°N from 1979 to 2005 and show that most latitude bands exhibit long-range correlated (LRC) behavior, meaning that ozone autocorrelation functions decay by a power law rather than exponentially as in AR(1). At such latitudes the uncertainties of total ozone trends are greater than those obtained from AR(1) models and the expected time required to detect ozone recovery correspondingly longer. We find no evidence of LRC behavior in southern middle-and high-subpolar latitudes (45°–60°S), where the long-term ozone decline attributable to anthropogenic chlorine is the greatest. We thus confirm an earlier prediction based on an AR(1) analysis that this region (especially the highest latitudes, and especially the South Atlantic) is the optimal location for the detection of ozone recovery, with a statistically significant ozone increase attributable to chlorine likely to be detectable by the end of the next decade. In northern middle and high latitudes, on the other hand, there is clear evidence of LRC behavior. This increases the uncertainties on the long-term trend attributable to anthropogenic chlorine by about a factor of 1.5 and lengthens the expected time to detect ozone recovery by a similar amount (from ∼2030 to ∼2045). If the long-term changes in ozone are instead fit by a piecewise-linear trend rather than by stratospheric chlorine loading, then the strong decrease of northern middle- and high-latitude ozone during the first half of the 1990s and its subsequent increase in the second half of the 1990s projects more strongly on the trend and makes a smaller contribution to the noise. This both increases the trend and weakens the LRC behavior at these latitudes, to the extent that ozone recovery (according to this model, and in the sense of a statistically significant ozone increase) is already on the verge of being detected. The implications of this rather controversial interpretation are discussed.

Numerical simulations of intense tropical storms

A high resolution general circulation model has been used to study intense tropical storms. A five-year-long global integration with a spatial resolution of 125 km has been analysed. The geographical and seasonal distribution of tropical storms agrees remarkably well with observations. The structure of individual storms also agrees with observations, but the storms are generally more extensive in coverage and less extreme than the observed ones. A few additional calculations have also been done by a very high resolution limited-area version of the same model, where the boundary conditions successively have been interpolated from the global model. These results are very realistic in many details of the structure of the storms including simulated rain-bands and an eye structure. The global model has also been used in another five-year integration to study the influence of greenhouse warming. The sea surface temperatures have been taken from a transient climate change experiment carried out with a low resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The result is a significant reduction in the number of hurricanes, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. Main reasons for this can be found in changes in the largescale circulation, i.e. a weakening of the Hadley circulation, and a more intense warming of the upper tropical troposphere. A similar effect can be seen during warm ENSO events, where fewer North Atlantic hurricanes have been reported.

Seasonal persistence of midlatitude total ozone anomalies

Temporal autocorrelations of monthly mean total ozone anomalies over the 35–60°S and 35–60°N latitude bands reveal that anomalies established in the wintertime midlatitude ozone buildup persist (with photochemical decay) until the end of the following autumn, and then are rapidly erased once the next winter's buildup begins. The photochemical decay rate is found to be identical between the two hemispheres. High predictability of ozone through late summer exists based on the late-spring values. In the northern hemisphere, extending the 1979–2001 springtime ozone trend to other months through regression based on the seasonal persistence of anomalies captures the seasonality of the ozone trends remarkably well. In the southern hemisphere, the springtime trend only accounts for part of the summertime trends. There is a strong correlation between the ozone anomalies in northern hemisphere spring and those in the subsequent southern hemisphere spring, but not the converse.

Integration of retrotransposons-based markers in a linkage map of barley

A deeper understanding of random markers is important if they are to be employed for a range of objectives. The sequence specific amplified polymorphism (S-SAP) technique is a powerful genetic analysis tool which exploits the high copy number of retrotransposon long terminal repeats (LTRs) in the plant genome. The distribution and inheritance of S-SAP bands in the barley genome was studied using the Steptoe × Morex (S × M) double haploid (DH) population. Six S-SAP primer combinations generated 98 polymorphic bands, and map positions were assigned to all but one band. Eight putative co-dominant loci were detected, representing 16 of the mapped markers. Thus at least 81 of the mapped S-SAP loci were dominant. The markers were distributed along all of the seven chromosomes and a tendency to cluster was observed. The distribution of S-SAP markers over the barley genome concurred with the knowledge of the high copy number of retrotransposons in plants. This experiment has demonstrated the potential for the S-SAP technique to be applied in a range of analyses such as genetic fingerprinting, marker assisted breeding, biodiversity assessment and phylogenetic analyses.

A method to diagnose boundary-layer type using Doppler lidar

A new technique for objective classification of boundary layers is applied to ground-based vertically pointing Doppler lidar and sonic anemometer data. The observed boundary layer has been classified into nine different types based on those in the Met Office ‘Lock’ scheme, using vertical velocity variance and skewness, along with attenuated backscatter coefficient and surface sensible heat flux. This new probabilistic method has been applied to three years of data from Chilbolton Observatory in southern England and a climatology of boundary-layer type has been created. A clear diurnal cycle is present in all seasons. The most common boundary-layer type is stable with no cloud (30.0% of the dataset). The most common unstable type is well mixed with no cloud (15.4%). Decoupled stratocumulus is the third most common boundary-layer type (10.3%) and cumulus under stratocumulus occurs 1.0% of the time. The occurrence of stable boundary-layer types is much higher in the winter than the summer and boundary-layer types capped with cumulus cloud are more prevalent in the warm seasons. The most common diurnal evolution of boundary-layer types, occurring on 52 days of our three-year dataset, is that of no cloud with the stability changing from stable to unstable during daylight hours. These results are based on 16393 hours, 62.4% of the three-year dataset, of diagnosed boundary-layer type. This new method is ideally suited to long-term evaluation of boundary-layer type parametrisations in weather forecast and climate models.

Beta event-related desynchronization as an index of individual differences in processing human facial expression: further investigations of autistic traits in typically developing adults

The human mirror neuron system (hMNS) has been associated with various forms of social cognition and affective processing including vicarious experience. It has also been proposed that a faulty hMNS may underlie some of the deficits seen in the autism spectrum disorders (ASDs). In the present study we set out to investigate whether emotional facial expressions could modulate a putative EEG index of hMNS activation (mu suppression) and if so, would this differ according to the individual level of autistic traits [high versus low Autism Spectrum Quotient (AQ) score]. Participants were presented with 3 s films of actors opening and closing their hands (classic hMNS mu-suppression protocol) while simultaneously wearing happy, angry, or neutral expressions. Mu-suppression was measured in the alpha and low beta bands. The low AQ group displayed greater low beta event-related desynchronization (ERD) to both angry and neutral expressions. The high AQ group displayed greater low beta ERD to angry than to happy expressions. There was also significantly more low beta ERD to happy faces for the low than for the high AQ group. In conclusion, an interesting interaction between AQ group and emotional expression revealed that hMNS activation can be modulated by emotional facial expressions and that this is differentiated according to individual differences in the level of autistic traits. The EEG index of hMNS activation (mu suppression) seems to be a sensitive measure of the variability in facial processing in typically developing individuals with high and low self-reported traits of autism.

Near-infrared water vapour self-continuum at close to room temperature

The gaseous absorption of solar radiation within near-infrared atmospheric windows in the Earth's atmosphere is dominated by the water vapour continuum. Recent measurements by Baranov et al. (2011) [17] in 2500 cm−1 (4 μm) window and by Ptashnik et al. (2011) [18] in a few near-infrared windows revealed that the self-continuum absorption is typically an order of magnitude stronger than given by the MT_CKD continuum model prior to version 2.5. Most of these measurements, however, were made at elevated temperatures, which makes their application to atmospheric conditions difficult. Here we report new laboratory measurements of the self-continuum absorption at 289 and 318 K in the near-infrared spectral region 1300–8000 cm−1, using a multipass 30 m base cell with total optical path 612 m. Our results confirm the main conclusions of the previous measurements both within bands and in windows. Of particular note is that we present what we believe to be the first near-room temperature measurement using Fourier Transform Spectrometry of the self-continuum in the 6200 cm−1 (1.6 μm) window, which provides tentative evidence that, at such temperatures, the water vapour continuum absorption may be as strong as it is in 2.1 μm and 4 μm windows and up to 2 orders of magnitude stronger than the MT_CKD-2.5 continuum. We note that alternative methods of measuring the continuum in this window have yielded widely differing assessment of its strength, which emphasises the need for further measurements.