Alkenone analyses of sediment cores from the western Arabian Sea

Records of total organic carbon (TOC) and C37 alkenones were used as indicators for past primary productivity in the western and eastern Arabian Sea. Data from GeoB 3005, an open ocean site in the western Arabian Sea upwelling area, are compared with similar records of GeoB 3007 from the Owen Ridge, Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 723 from the continental margin off Oman and MD 900963 from the eastern Arabian Sea. TOC/C37 alkenone records together with other proxies used to reconstruct upwelling intensity, indicate periods of high productivity in tune with precessional forcing all over the Arabian Sea. Based on their phase-relationship to variations in boreal summer insolation they can be divided into three groups. In the western Arabian Sea the precession-related phasing is different between productivity proxies and those for summer monsoon wind strength and upwelling intensity. TOC and C37 alkenone records from the western Arabian Sea lag the other monsoonal indicators by about 5 kyr, but lead productivity indicators from the eastern Arabian Sea by 3 kyr. Based on the differences in phase relationships associated with the precessional cycling between productivity and monsoonal proxies in the western Arabian Sea it is proposed that the TOC/C37 alkenone signal in the western Arabian Sea document a combined signal of moderate SW monsoon winds and of strengthened and prolonged NE monsoon winds. In the eastern Arabian Sea the phasing hints to coincidence between maximum productivity and stronger NE monsoon winds associated with precession-related maxima in ice volume. In contrast, variations in paleoproductivity at site GeoB 3007 from the Owen Ridge indicate productivity maxima during glacial substages 8.2, 6.2 and 2.2, whereas precessionrelated changes are of only minor importance at this location. The results of frequency analyses confirm that productivity at site GeoB 3007 responds predominantly to glacialinterglacial climate changes, while site GeoB 3005 from the open ocean upwelling region near the Gulf of Aden is dominated by precessional insolation. A possible explanation for the pattern revealed at the Owen Ridge is the periodic NW-SE displacement of the Findlater Jet axis, which separates the region of open ocean upwelling to the northwest from downwelling to the southeast ofthe jet. The carbon isotopes of planktic foraminifera reflect nutrient related d13C variations of dissolved inorganic carbon. The difference between the planktic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber (w), living in the upper 50 m of the water column, and the deeper Iiving Neogloboquadrina dutertrei (Delta d13Cr-d) of core GeoB 3005 displays nutrient variations in the upwelling area near the Gulf of Aden. The results of cross-spectral analyses between Deltad13Cr-d of GeoB 3005 and proxies for SW monsoon intensity indicate, too, a dissociation of productivity from monsoonal upwelling intensity. Instead, productivity depends mainly on the availability of nutrients, while upwelling intensity of sub-surface water masses seems to be of only secondary importance. Additionally, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were reconstructed using the unsaturation ratio of C37 alkenones. Alkenone SSTs reflect annual mean temperatures rather than explicitly the season of upwelling. This is evident from alkenone SSTs in a transect of surface sediments extending from the inner Gulf of Aden into the western Arabian Sea. The alkenone-derived SST records of GeoB 3005 from the open ocean upwelling region near the Gulf of Aden and GeoB 3007 from the Owen Ridge reveal similar variations with high SSTs during interglacial and low SSTs during glacial periods. The glacial marine oxygen isotope stage (MIS) 6 remains relatively warm and was not as cold as MIS 3 to 4 and 8 according to the alkenone SST. Similar variation-patterns were reconstructed in the coastal upwelling area off Oman for ODP Site 723 as weIl as in the eastern Arabian Sea for MD 900963, where upwelling is not as pronounced as in the western Arabian Sea. Spectral-analyses indicate that SST changes are in good agreement with the modulation of low-latitude precessional insolation changes by eccentricity. However, they do not show the pronounced cydicity in the precessional frequency band, which is characteristic for variations in paleoproductivity. Although the overall variation pattern is very similar, a dose comparison between the western (GeoB 3005) and the eastern Arabian Sea (MD 900963) shows larger differences between both sites during cold intervals than during periods of warm SSTs. This is attributed to a more effective cooling of surface waters in the western Arabian Sea by prolonged NE monsoon winds during times of expanded Northern Hemisphere ice-sheets, thereby lowering the annual mean SSTs stronger than in the eastern Arabian Sea.

(Supplementary Table 1) Iceberg-rafted debris (IBRD) mass accumulation rates (MAR) of IODP site 318-U1361

The Pliocene and Early Pleistocene, between 5.3 and 0.8 million years ago, span a transition from a global climate state that was 2-3 °C warmer than present with limited ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere to one that was characterized by continental-scale glaciations at both poles. Growth and decay of these ice sheets was paced by variations in the Earth's orbit around the Sun. However, the nature of the influence of orbital forcing on the ice sheets is unclear, particularly in light of the absence of a strong 20,000-year precession signal in geologic records of global ice volume and sea level. Here we present a record of the rate of accumulation of iceberg-rafted debris offshore from the East Antarctic ice sheet, adjacent to the Wilkes Subglacial Basin, between 4.3 and 2.2 million years ago. We infer that maximum iceberg debris accumulation is associated with the enhanced calving of icebergs during ice-sheet margin retreat. In the warmer part of the record, between 4.3 and 3.5 million years ago, spectral analyses show a dominant periodicity of about 40,000 years. Subsequently, the powers of the 100,000-year and 20,000-year signals strengthen. We suggest that, as the Southern Ocean cooled between 3.5 and 2.5 million years ago, the development of a perennial sea-ice field limited the oceanic forcing of the ice sheet. After this threshold was crossed, substantial retreat of the East Antarctic ice sheet occurred only during austral summer insolation maxima, as controlled by the precession cycle.

(Table 1) Chemical composition of Mediterranean halite from DSDP Hole 13-134

Bromine content of a 15 cm halite core from Deep Sea Drilling Project Leg XIII Hole 134 was analyzed at 1.5 cm intervals. The Br varies from 140 to 254 ppm, and three maxima were found to coincide with three postulated horizons of desiccation. The Br profile confirms the interpretation from sedimentologic evidence that Mediterranean salts were deposited in a desiccating basin.

Estimadores bayesianos de la fiabilidad con muestreo censurado

El estudio de la fiabilidad de componentes y sistemas tiene gran importancia en diversos campos de la ingenieria, y muy concretamente en el de la informatica. Al analizar la duracion de los elementos de la muestra hay que tener en cuenta los elementos que no fallan en el tiempo que dure el experimento, o bien los que fallen por causas distintas a la que es objeto de estudio. Por ello surgen nuevos tipos de muestreo que contemplan estos casos. El mas general de ellos, el muestreo censurado, es el que consideramos en nuestro trabajo. En este muestreo tanto el tiempo hasta que falla el componente como el tiempo de censura son variables aleatorias. Con la hipotesis de que ambos tiempos se distribuyen exponencialmente, el profesor Hurt estudio el comportamiento asintotico del estimador de maxima verosimilitud de la funcion de fiabilidad. En principio parece interesante utilizar metodos Bayesianos en el estudio de la fiabilidad porque incorporan al analisis la informacion a priori de la que se dispone normalmente en problemas reales. Por ello hemos considerado dos estimadores Bayesianos de la fiabilidad de una distribucion exponencial que son la media y la moda de la distribucion a posteriori. Hemos calculado la expansion asint6tica de la media, varianza y error cuadratico medio de ambos estimadores cuando la distribuci6n de censura es exponencial. Hemos obtenido tambien la distribucion asintotica de los estimadores para el caso m3s general de que la distribucion de censura sea de Weibull. Dos tipos de intervalos de confianza para muestras grandes se han propuesto para cada estimador. Los resultados se han comparado con los del estimador de maxima verosimilitud, y con los de dos estimadores no parametricos: limite producto y Bayesiano, resultando un comportamiento superior por parte de uno de nuestros estimadores. Finalmente nemos comprobado mediante simulacion que nuestros estimadores son robustos frente a la supuesta distribuci6n de censura, y que uno de los intervalos de confianza propuestos es valido con muestras pequenas. Este estudio ha servido tambien para confirmar el mejor comportamiento de uno de nuestros estimadores. SETTING OUT AND SUMMARY OF THE THESIS When we study the lifetime of components it's necessary to take into account the elements that don't fail during the experiment, or those that fail by reasons which are desirable to exclude from consideration. The model of random censorship is very usefull for analysing these data. In this model the time to failure and the time censor are random variables. We obtain two Bayes estimators of the reliability function of an exponential distribution based on randomly censored data. We have calculated the asymptotic expansion of the mean, variance and mean square error of both estimators, when the censor's distribution is exponential. We have obtained also the asymptotic distribution of the estimators for the more general case of censor's Weibull distribution. Two large-sample confidence bands have been proposed for each estimator. The results have been compared with those of the maximum likelihood estimator, and with those of two non parametric estimators: Product-limit and Bayesian. One of our estimators has the best behaviour. Finally we have shown by simulation, that our estimators are robust against the assumed censor's distribution, and that one of our intervals does well in small sample situation.