Policy evaluation and uncertainty about the effects of oil prices on economic activity

This paper addresses the issue of policy evaluation in a context in which policymakers are uncertain about the effects of oil prices on economic performance. I consider models of the economy inspired by Solow (1980), Blanchard and Gali (2007), Kim and Loungani (1992) and Hamilton (1983, 2005), which incorporate different assumptions on the channels through which oil prices have an impact on economic activity. I first study the characteristics of the model space and I analyze the likelihood of the different specifications. I show that the existence of plausible alternative representations of the economy forces the policymaker to face the problem of model uncertainty. Then, I use the Bayesian approach proposed by Brock, Durlauf and West (2003, 2007) and the minimax approach developed by Hansen and Sargent (2008) to integrate this form of uncertainty into policy evaluation. I find that, in the environment under analysis, the standard Taylor rule is outperformed under a number of criteria by alternative simple rules in which policymakers introduce persistence in the policy instrument and respond to changes in the real price of oil.

Role of cytokines in the formation and downregulation of hepatic circumoval granulomas and hepatic fibrosis in Schistosoma mansoni-infected mice

Schistosoma mansoni infections are associated with a strong Th2 cytokine response. Treatment of mice with IL-12 or anti-IL-2 or anti-IL-4 before i.v. injection of eggs increased IFN-gamma production and downregulated Th2 responses and pulmonary granuloma size. Conversely, anti-IFN-gamma antibody treatment increased Th2 responses and granuloma size. Similar manipulation produced less dramatic results in infected mice. However, sensitization of mice with eggs + IL-12 before infection augmented the Th1 response and decreased Th2 cytokines, granuloma size and fibrosis. Antisera to IFN-gamma, TNF-alpha or IL-12 during IL-12-egg immunization partly restored granuloma size and fibrosis following infection. Variations in the size of granulomas in acute (8 week) infections may be influenced primarily by the number and state of activation of T cells. In chronic (12-16 week) infections immunologic downmodulation proceeded normally in mice without functional CD8+ cells and in IFN-gamma KO mice but not in B cell KO (muMT) mice or in mice deficient in FcR expression in spite of the fact that these mice downregulated their T cell and cytokine responses. It is evident that the participation of cytokines in granuloma formation and regulation is complicated and that the mechanisms controlling both these phenomena are likely to involve both T cells and antibody/FcR interactions.

Rest/nrsf governs the expression of dense-core vesicle gliosecretion in astrocytes

Astrocytes are the brain nonnerve cells that are competent for gliosecretion, i.e., for expression and regulated exocytosis of clear and dense-core vesicles (DCVs). We investigated whether expression of astrocyte DCVs is governed by RE-1-silencing transcription factor (REST)/neuron-restrictive silencer factor, the transcription repressor that orchestrates nerve cell differentiation. Rat astrocyte cultures exhibited high levels of REST and expressed neither DCVs nor their markers (granins, peptides, and membrane proteins). Transfection of dominant-negative construct of REST induced the appearance of DCVs filled with secretogranin 2 and neuropeptide Y (NPY) and distinct from other organelles. Total internal reflection fluorescence analysis revealed NPY-monomeric red fluorescent protein-labeled DCVs to undergo Ca21 -dependent exocytosis, which was largely prevented by botulinum toxin B. In the I-II layers of the human temporal brain cortex, all neurons and microglia exhibited the expected inappreciable and high levels of REST, respectively. In contrast, astrocyte RESTwas variable, going from inappreciable to high, and accompanied by a variable expression of DCVs. In conclusion, astrocyte DCV expression and gliosecretion are governed by REST. The variable in situ REST levels may contribute to the wellknown structural/ functional heterogeneity of astrocytes.

Leishmanial antigens in the diagnosis of active lesions and ancient scars of American tegumentary leishmaniasis patients

Cutaneous biopsies (n = 94) obtained from 88 patients with American tegumentary leishmaniasis were studied by conventional and immunohistochemical techniques. Specimens were distributed as active lesions of cutaneous leishmaniasis (n = 53) (Group I), cicatricial lesions of cutaneous leishmaniasis (n = 35) (Group II) and suggestive scars of healed mucosal leishmaniasis patients (n = 6) (Group III). In addition, active cutaneous lesions of other etiology (n = 24) (Group C1) and cutaneous scars not related to leishmaniasis (n = 10) (Group C2) were also included in the protocol. Amastigotes in Group I biopsies were detected by routine histopathological exam (30.2%), imprint (28.2%), culture (43.4%), immunofluorescence (41.4%) and immunoperoxidase (58.5%) techniques; and by the five methods together (79.3%). In Group II, 5.7% of cultures were positive. Leishmanial antigen was also seen in the cytoplasm of macrophages and giant cells (cellular pattern), vessel walls (vascular pattern) and dermal nerves (neural pattern). Positive reaction was detected in 49 (92.5%), 20 (57%) and 4 (67%) biopsies of Groups I, II and III, respectively. Antigen persistency in cicatricial tissue may be related to immunoprotection or, on the contrary, to the development of late lesions. We suggest that the cellular, vascular and neural patterns could be applied in the immunodiagnosis of active and cicatricial lesions in which leishmaniasis is suspected.

Amniotic fluid insulin-like growth factor binding protein 3 concentration as early indicator of fetal growth restriction.

OBJECTIVE: Insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) is an important regulator of fetal growth and its bioavailability depends on insulin-like growth factor binding proteins (IGFBPs). Genes coding for IGF-I and IGFBP3 are polymorphic. We hypothesized that either amniotic fluid protein concentration at the beginning of the second trimester or genotype of one of these two genes could be predictive of abnormal fetal growth. STUDY DESIGN: Amniotic fluid samples (14-18 weeks of pregnancy) from 123 patients with appropriate for gestational age (AGA) fetuses, 39 patients with small for gestational age (SGA) fetuses and 34 patients with large for gestational age (LGA) were analyzed. Protein concentrations were evaluated by ELISA and gene polymorphisms by PCR. RESULTS: Amniotic fluid IGFBP3 concentrations were significantly higher in SGA compared to AGA group (P=0.030), and this was even more significant when adjusted to gestational age at the time of amniocentesis and other covariates (ANCOVA analysis: P=0.009). Genotypic distribution of IGF-I variable number of tandem repeats (VNTR) polymorphism was significantly different in SGA compared to AGA group (P=0.029). 19CA/20CA genotype frequency was threefold decreased in SGA compared to AGA group and the risk of SGA occurrence of this genotype was decreased accordingly: OR=0.289, 95%CI=0.1-0.9, P=0.032. Genotype distribution of IGFBP3(A-202C) polymorphism was similar in all three groups. CONCLUSIONS: High IGFBP3 concentrations in amniotic fluid at the beginning of the second trimester are associated with increased risks of SGA while 19CA/20CA genotype at IGF-I VNTR polymorphism is associated with reduced risks of SGA. Neither IGFBP3 concentrations, nor IGF-I/IGFBP3 polymorphisms are associated with modified risks of LGA.

Differential requirement for CD4 help in the development of an antigen-specific CD8+ T cell response depending on the route of immunization.

Previous studies in our laboratory have shown that DBA/2 mice injected i.p. with syngeneic P815 tumor cells transfected with the HLA-CW3 gene (P815-CW3) showed a dramatic expansion of activated CD8+CD62L- T cells expressing exclusively the Vbeta10 segment. We have used this model to study the regulatory mechanisms involved in the development of the CW3-specific CD8+ response, with respect to different routes of immunization. Whereas both intradermal (i.d.) and i.p. immunization of DBA/2 mice with P815-CW3 cells led to a strong expansion of CD8+CD62L-Vbeta10+ cells, only the i.d. route allowed this expansion after immunization with P815 cells transfected with a minigene coding for the antigenic epitope CW3 170-179 (P815 miniCW3). Furthermore, depletion of CD4+ T cells in vivo completely abolished the specific response of CD8+CD62L-Vbeta10+ cells and prevented the rejection of P815-CW3 tumor cells injected i.p., whereas it did not affect CD8S+CD62L-Vbeta10+ cell expansion after i.d. immunization with either P815-CW3 or P815 miniCW3. Finally, the CW3-specific CD8+ memory response was identical whether or not CD4+ T cells were depleted during the primary response. Collectively, these results suggest that the CD8+ T cell response to P815-CW3 tumor cells injected i.p. is strictly dependent upon recognition of a helper epitope by CD4+ T cells, whereas no such requirement is observed for i.d. injection.

Genetic analysis of phenoxyalkanoic acid degradation in Sphingomonas herbicidovorans MH.

Phenoxyalkanoic acid degradation is well studied in Beta- and Gammaproteobacteria, but the genetic background has not been elucidated so far in Alphaproteobacteria. We report the isolation of several genes involved in dichlor- and mecoprop degradation from the alphaproteobacterium Sphingomonas herbicidovorans MH and propose that the degradation proceeds analogously to that previously reported for 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D). Two genes for alpha-ketoglutarate-dependent dioxygenases, sdpA(MH) and rdpA(MH), were found, both of which were adjacent to sequences with potential insertion elements. Furthermore, a gene for a dichlorophenol hydroxylase (tfdB), a putative regulatory gene (cadR), two genes for dichlorocatechol 1,2-dioxygenases (dccA(I/II)), two for dienelactone hydrolases (dccD(I/II)), part of a gene for maleylacetate reductase (dccE), and one gene for a potential phenoxyalkanoic acid permease were isolated. In contrast to other 2,4-D degraders, the sdp, rdp, and dcc genes were scattered over the genome and their expression was not tightly regulated. No coherent pattern was derived on the possible origin of the sdp, rdp, and dcc pathway genes. rdpA(MH) was 99% identical to rdpA(MC1), an (R)-dichlorprop/alpha-ketoglutarate dioxygenase from Delftia acidovorans MC1, which is evidence for a recent gene exchange between Alpha- and Betaproteobacteria. Conversely, DccA(I) and DccA(II) did not group within the known chlorocatechol 1,2-dioxygenases, but formed a separate branch in clustering analysis. This suggests a different reservoir and reduced transfer for the genes of the modified ortho-cleavage pathway in Alphaproteobacteria compared with the ones in Beta- and Gammaproteobacteria.

European collaborative study of early-onset bipolar disorder: Evidence for genetic heterogeneity on 2q14 according to age at onset.

Bipolar disorder has a genetic component, but the mode of inheritance remains unclear. A previous genome scan conducted in 70 European families led to detect eight regions linked to bipolar disease. Here, we present an investigation of whether the phenotypic heterogeneity of the disorder corresponds to genetic heterogeneity in these regions using additional markers and an extended sample of families. The MLS statistic was used for linkage analyses. The predivided sample test and the maximum likelihood binomial methods were used to test genetic homogeneity between early-onset bipolar type I (cut-off of 22 years) and other types of the disorder (later onset of bipolar type I and early-onset bipolar type II), using a total of 138 independent bipolar-affected sib-pairs. Analysis of the extended sample of families supports linkage in four regions (2q14, 3p14, 16p23, and 20p12) of the eight regions of linkage suggested by our previous genome scan. Heterogeneity testing revealed genetic heterogeneity between early and late-onset bipolar type I in the 2q14 region (P = 0.0001). Only the early form of the bipolar disorder but not the late form appeared to be linked to this region. This region may therefore include a genetic factor either specifically involved in the early-onset bipolar type I or only influencing the age at onset (AAO). Our findings illustrate that stratification according to AAO may be valuable for the identification of genetic vulnerability polymorphisms.