Pricing and hedging of oil futures : a unifying approach

We develop and empirically test a continuous time equilibrium model for the pricing of oil futures. The model provides a link between no-arbitrage models and expectation oriented models. It highlights the role of inventories for the identification of different pricing regimes. In an empirical study the hedging performance of our model is compared with five other one- and two-factor pricing models. The hedging problem considered is related to Metallgesellschaft´s strategy to hedge long-term forward commitments with short-term futures. The results show that the downside risk distribution of our inventory based model stochastically dominates those of the other models.

Sustainable miracles : protection and competition in the Brazilian oil industry

It is often suggested that competition improves productivity, however, the underlying support for this idea is surprisingly thin. This paper presents a case study examining the e ects of a change in the competitive environment on productivity at the Petrobras, Brazil's state-owned oil company. Petrobras had a legal monopoly on production, re ning, transportation and importation of oil in Brazil until it was removed in 1995. Even though Petrobras continues to have a de facto monopoly, the end of legal monopoly labor productivity growth rate more than doubled. A growth accounting of the industry shows that between 1977 and 1993 output growth rate (and productivity growth rate) is explained by the accumulation of capital, while Total Factor Productivity (TFP) decreased. Between 1994 and 2000 labor productivity growth rate is completely explained by the growth rate of TFP. The results suggest that the threat of competition alone is su cient to improve productivity. They also provide evidence that restricting competition help cause Brazil's depression of the 1980s.

The rite of passage from regular to connoisseur consumer: the role of the taste transformation ritual in the specialty coffee context

Apesar de o campo da cultura de consumo ter abordado o papel do ritual no consumo, definindo e descrevendo este constructo e explicando suas dimensões, significados culturais, elementos, componentes e práticas, assim como revelando a diferenciação nas práticas dos consumidores, nenhuma pesquisa ainda identificou como os consumidores, por meio de práticas de ritual, estabelecem e manipulam suas próprias diferenciações em relação a outros consumidores durante o rito de passagem deles de uma categoria cultural de pessoa para outra. Tendo como base conceitos-chaves da teoria sobre ritual, minha pesquisa aborda o papel do ritual no consume de apreciação. Conduzindo um estudo etnográfico sobre consumo de apreciação de cafés especiais, eu realizei uma imersão no campo, visitando e observando consumidores em cafeterias independentes de destaque na América do Norte – Toronto, Montreal, Seattle e Nova York – de agosto de 2013 a julho de 2014. Eu também realizei uma imersão no contexto de cafés especiais no Brasil em Belo Horizonte e São Paulo, de agosto de 2014 a janeiro de 2015, para comparar e contrastar as culturas de consume de cafés especiais de Brasil, Estados Unidos e Canadá. Eu usei entrevistas longas, observação participante, netnografia, introspecção e análise histórica de artigos de jornais para coletar os dados, que foram interpretados utilizando a abordagem hermenêutica, comparando os consumidores em diferentes estágios durante o rito de passagem de apreciação. Para estender meu entendimento sobre o consumo de apreciação, eu também coletei dados sobre o contexto de consumo de vinho. Nesta tese, eu introduzo a ideia de ritual de transformação do gosto, teorizando sobre o processo do rito de passagem de apreciação, que converte consumidores regulares em consumidores apreciadores. Minha pesquisa revela que consumidores apreciadores são amadores em diferentes estágios do rito de passagem de apreciação. Eles se transformam pelo estabelecimento e reforço de oposições entre o consume de massa e de apreciação. O ritual de transformação do gosto envolve os seguintes elementos: (1) variação nas escolhas de produtos de alta qualidade, (2) o lugar para realizar a degustação, (3) o momento da degustação, (4) o ato de degustar, (5) investimento de tempo e dinheiro, (6) aumento do capital subcultural e social, (7) perseverança no rito de passagem. Os consumidores apreciadores participam da comunidade de consumo de apreciação. Essa comunidade heterogênea é composta por profissionais excelentes, apreciadores e consumidores regulares. As forças que direcionam a comunidade, de acordo com o que foi identificado no estudo, são a produção de capital social e subcultural, emulação do profissional e das práticas de ritual de consumo, tensões de performance entre os membros da comunidade, amizade comercial e jogo de status. Eu desenvolvo uma ampla consideração teórica que desenvolve e estende um número de conceitos em relação a ritual e consumo, gosto, comunidade heterogênea e consumidores apreciadores.

Oil price shocks and policy implications the emergence of U.S. tight oil production: a case study

How have shocks to supply and demand affected global oil prices; and what are key policy implications following the resurgence of oil production in the United States? Highlights: − The recent collapse in global oil prices was dominated by oversupply. − The future of tight oil in the United States is vulnerable to obstacles beyond oil prices. − Opinions on tight oil from the Top 25 think tank organizations are considered. Global oil prices have fallen more than fifty percent since mid-2014. While price corrections in the global oil markets resulted from multiple factors over the past twelve months, surging tight oil production from the United States was a key driver. Tight oil is considered an unconventional or transitional oil source due to its location in oil-bearing shale instead of conventional oil reservoirs. These qualities make tight oil production fundamentally different from regular crude, posing unique challenges. This case study examines these challenges and explores how shocks to supply and demand affect global oil prices while identifying important policy considerations. Analysis of existing evidence is supported by expert opinions from more than one hundred scholars from top-tier think tank organizations. Finally, implications for United States tight oil production as well as global ramifications of a new low price environment are explored.

Coffee voluntary standards systems a study of the states of Minas Gerais and São Paulo

In order to adapt to new markets, the coffee supply chain has gone through numerous changes during the last years, which led to the creation of the voluntary standard systems. Adopting a Voluntary Standard System (VSS) consists of becoming a member of a certifier or verifier, in which an independent third party sets specific criteria to ensure a product complies with standards. Yet, the segment is still relatively new and raises some doubts about the economic and financial advantages of investing in sustainability-related certification. This study analyzes the perception of coffee producers about VSS – whether it brings economic benefits. The literature review covers various VSS in the coffee sector, the brief history of the commodity in Brazil, as well as the description of the supply chain. Certified and non-certified producers in the States of Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais, answered questionnaires to indicate the perceived advantages of certification. The results show that, despite some added value that certification can bestow, the quality is what really matter, since it allows producers to sell the product at higher prices and to gain advantage over competitors.

Coffee house consumer behavior in Changsha, China

Women in Changsha are patronizing coffee-houses, ordering beverages and sweets, and disliking the taste of the expensive product purchased. This thesis is an exploratory research study conducted in Changsha, China with a consumer behavior focus. It uses primary surveys and interviews in addition to secondary sources from books, articles, and academic journals. It seeks to identify underlying motives for purchasing behavior from working women in the developing third-tier city Changsha, Hunan, China. It delves into the psychology of the working women who spend their hard-earned discretionary incomes at costly western chain coffee-houses. The inland mass-market consumer class feels the desire to project their newly established status while needing to save money for their personal future, their children’s schooling, and their parent’s retirement. They must wisely spend discretionary income while satisfying social societal norms. An individual’s self-concept plays and important role in determining which coffee shop she will frequent and what she will order. Daylight Donuts, Starbucks, Costa Coffee and local café’s all serve brewed coffee but they have different associations. This study aims at understanding the influencing factors associated with coffee-house brand equity and how the consumer’s perception of the brand forms her purchasing behavior. All coffee-house brands are relatively new in Changsha, none existing more than seven years. They do not have lasting ties with the community and need to create consumer relationships to ensure sustainability. Changsha women are bold and strong willed. If a corporation is to succeed in the future of Hunan, it will need to create an environment of hospitality excellence, place socially responsible roots in the society, and ask its customers what they want.

Headspace solid-phase microextraction combined with mass spectrometry as a powerful analytical tool for profiling the terpenoid metabolomic pattern of hop-essential oil derived from Saaz variety

Hop(HumuluslupulusL.,Cannabaceaefamily)isprizedforitsessentialoilcontents,usedin beer production and, more recently, in biological and pharmacological applications. In this work,a methodinvolvingheadspace solid-phase microextractionand gas chromatography– mass spectrometry was developed and optimized to establish the terpenoid (monoterpenes and sesquiterpenes) metabolomic pattern of hop-essential oil derived from Saaz variety as a mean to explore this matrix as a powerful biological source for newer, more selective, biodegradable and naturally produced antimicrobial and antioxidant compounds. Different parameters affecting terpenoid metabolites extraction by headspace solid-phase microextraction were considered and optimized: type of fiber coatings, extraction temperature, extraction time, ionic strength, and sample agitation. In the optimized method, analytes were extracted for 30 min at 40 C in the sample headspace with a 50/30 m divinylbenzene/carboxen/polydimethylsiloxane coating fiber. The methodology allowed the identification of a total of 27 terpenoid metabolites, representing 92.5% of the total Saaz hop-essential oil volatile terpenoid composition. The headspace composition was dominated by monoterpenes (56.1%, 13 compounds), sesquiterpenes (34.9%, 10), oxygenated monoterpenes (1.41%, 3), and hemiterpenes (0.04%, 1) some of which can probably contribute to the hop of Saaz variety aroma. Mass spectrometry analysis revealed that the main metabolites are the monoterpene -myrcene (53.0±1.1% of the total volatile fraction), and the cyclic sesquiterpenes, -humulene (16.6 ± 0.8%), and -caryophyllene (14.7 ± 0.4%), which together represent about 80% of the total volatile fraction from the hop-essential oil. Thesefindingssuggestthatthismatrixcanbeexploredasapowerfulbiosourceofterpenoid metabolites.

Volatile Oil of Psidium cattleianum Sabine from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Effect of Urucu oil (Brazilian Amazon) on the biomass of the aquatic macrophyte Eichhornia crassipes (Mart.) Solms (Pontederiaceae)

Os rios e lagos de várzea da província petrolífera de Urucu, na Amazônia Central, são amplamente colonizados por macrófitas aquáticas, que podem ser afetadas por acidentes durante a exploração e o transporte de petróleo. Entre as macrófitas, a espécie flutuante Eichhornia crassipes (aguapé) ocorre abundantemente na região; OBJETIVO: O objetivo desse estudo foi verificar o efeito de diferentes dosagens do petróleo de Urucu (0; 0,5; 1,5 e 3,0 L.m-2) na biomassa viva e morta de E. crassipes e em algumas características físicas e químicas da água; MÉTODOS: O experimento teve oitenta e quatro dias de duração. A cada sete dias foi determinada a biomassa (viva e morta) de E. crassipes e os valores de temperatura, pH, condutividade elétrica e oxigênio dissolvido da água; RESULTADOS: A dosagem de 0,5 L.m-2 foi suficiente para causar mortalidade parcial (48%) em E. crassipes após trinta e cinco dias de exposição ao petróleo. A dosagem de 3,0 L.m-2 causou mortalidade total (100%) em E. crassipes em oitenta e quatro dias de exposição. A decomposição do petróleo e da biomassa morta de E. crassipes provocam a redução do oxigênio dissolvido e do pH, e aumento da condutividade elétrica e de fósforo total na água; CONCLUSÕES: Nós concluímos que um derramamento de petróleo pode provocar mortalidade total em uma população de uma espécie de macrófita, mas não em uma outra. Isto pode alterar a diversidade de espécies de macrófitas na região impactada. No caso de Eichhornia crassipes e Pistia stratiotes, um derramamento de petróleo de Urucu pode favorecer E. crassipes, a espécie menos sensível ao petróleo.

Calli induction in leaf explants of coffee elite genotypes

Visando a alcançar alta eficiência na indução de calos a partir de explantes foliares de plantas matrizes de C. arabica com alta heterozigose, por meio da embriogênese somática indireta, foram instalados três experimentos. O primeiro experimento foi conduzido em esquema fatorial 2x5, constituído de dois meios de cultura (BOXTEL & BERTHOULY, 1996 e TEIXEIRA et al., 2004) e cinco genótipos de C. arabica. No segundo experimento, foi avaliado o potencial de produção de calos embriogênicos em 10 genótipos, sendo cada genótipo considerado como um tratamento e, no terceiro experimento, foram avaliadas as variações nas concentrações de 2.4-D (2,5 e 20µM) e 2-iP (2,5 e 20µM) nos meios primário e secundário de TEIXEIRA et al. (2004). As culturas foram mantidas a 25oC, sob obscuridade. Para os genótipos 2.2 e 7.2, verificou-se a superioridade do meio de cultura Teixeira et al. (2004) em relação ao meio BOXTEL & BERTHOULY (1996). No genótipo 4.2, observou-se o comportamento inverso, ou seja, a superioridade do meio BOXTEL & BERTHOULY (1996). Os genótipos 3.0 e 5.0 apresentaram o mesmo comportamento em ambos os meios de cultura estudados, evidenciando que a produção de embriões somáticos é fortemente dependente do genótipo. A indução de calos depende da relação de 2-iP e 2.4-D. A combinação de 20.0µM of 2.4-D e 20.0µM of 2-iP promoveu a maior porcentagem de indução de calos embriogênicos.

Sourgrass densities affecting the initial growth and macronutrient content of coffee plants

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Hormesis with glyphosate depends on coffee growth stage

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Biosurfactants production by yeasts using soybean oil and glycerol as low cost substrate

Biosurfactants are bioactive agents that can be produced by many different microorganisms. Among those, special attention is given to yeasts, since they can produce many types of biosurfactants in large scale, using several kinds of substrates, justifying its use for industrial production of those products. For this production to be economically viable, the use of residual carbon sources is recommended. The present study isolated yeasts from soil contaminated with petroleum oil hydrocarbons and assessed their capacity for producing biosurfactants in low cost substrates. From a microbial consortium enriched, seven yeasts were isolated, all showing potential for producing biosurfactants in soybean oil. The isolate LBPF 3, characterized as Candida antarctica, obtained the highest levels of production - with a final production of 13.86 g/L. The isolate LBPF 9, using glycerol carbon source, obtained the highest reduction in surface tension in the growth medium: approximately 43% of reduction after 24 hours of incubation. The products obtained by the isolates presented surfactant activity, which reduced water surface tension to values that varied from 34 mN/m, obtained from the product of isolates LBPF 3 and 16 LBPF 7 (respectively characterized as Candida antarctica and Candida albicans) to 43 mN/m from the isolate LPPF 9, using glycerol as substrate. The assessed isolates all showed potential for the production of biosurfactants in conventional sources of carbon as well as in agroindustrial residue, especially in glycerol.

Physiological dose response of coffee (Coffea arabica L.) plants to glyphosate depends on growth stage

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)