(Table 1) Age determination of sediment cores F2-92-P3 and F2-92-P40

Although climate records from several locations around the world show nearly synchronous and abrupt changes, the nature of the inferred teleconnection is still poorly understood. On the basis of preserved laminations and molybdenum enrichments in open margin sediments we demonstrate that the oxygen content of northeast Pacific waters at 800 m depth during the Bölling-Alleröd warm period (15-13 kyr) was greatly reduced. Existing oxygen isotopic records of benthic and planktonic foraminifera suggest that this was probably due to suppressed ventilation at higher latitudes of the North Pacific. Comparison with ventilation records for the North Atlantic indicates an antiphased pattern of convection relative to the North Pacific over the past 22 kyr, perhaps due to variations in water vapor transport across Central America.

(Table 2) Age determination of sediment cores MD95-2002 and MD03-2692

We have compiled results obtained from four high sedimentation rate hemipelagic sequences from the Celtic sector of the NW European margin (NE Atlantic) to investigate the paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic evolution of the area over the last few climatic cycles. We focus on periods characteristic of deglacial transitions. We adopt a multiproxy sedimentological, geochemical, and micropaleontological approach, applying a sampling resolution down to ten microns for specific intervals. The investigation demonstrates the relationships between the Bay of Biscay hydrography and the glacial/deglacial history of both the proximal British-Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS) and the western European continent. We identify recurrent phases of laminae deposition concurrent with major BIIS deglacial episodes in all the studied cores. Evidence for abrupt freshwater discharges into the open ocean highlights the influence of such events at a regional scale. We discuss their impact at a global scale considering the present and past key location of the Bay of Biscay versus the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).

Carbonate sedimentation beneath the Carlifornia Current system

A north-south transect of 17 cores was constructed along the eastern boundary of the California Current system from 33° to 42°N to investigate the changes in biogenic sedimentation over the past 30 kyr. Percentages and mass accumulation rates of CaCO3, Corg, and biogenic opal were assembled at 500 to 1000 years/sample to provide relatively high resolution. Time-space maps reveal a complex pattern of changes that do not follow a simple glacial-interglacial two-mode model. Biogenic sedimentation shows responses that are sometimes time-transgressive and sometimes coeval, and most of the responses show more consistency within a limited geographic area than any temporal consistency. Reconstructed conditions during late oxygen isotope stage 3 were more like early Holocene conditions than any other time during the last 30 kyr. Coastal upwelling and productivity during oxygen isotope stage 3 were relatively strong along the central California margin but were weak along the northern California margin. Precipitation increased during the last glacial interval in the central California region, and the waters of the southern California margin had relatively low productivity. Productivity on the southern Oregon margin was relatively low at the beginning of the last glacial interval, but by about 20 ka, productivity in this area significantly increased. This change suggests that the center of the divergence of the West Wind Drift shifted south at this time. The end of the last glacial interval was characterized by increased productivity in the southern California margin and increased upwelling along the central California margin but upwelling remained weak along the northern California margin. A sudden (<300 years) decrease in CaCO3, Corg, and biogenic opal occurred at 13 ka. The changes suggest a major reorientation of the atmospheric circulation in the North Pacific and western North America and the establishment of a strong seasonality in the central California region. A carbonate preservation event occurred at 10 ka that appears to reflect the uptake of CO2 by the terrestrial biosphere as the northern latitudes were reforested following retreat of the glaciers. The Holocene has been a period of relatively high productivity in the southern California margin, relatively strong coastal upwelling along the central California margin, relatively weak upwelling along the northern California margin, and the northward migration of the divergence zone of the West Wind Drift.

Planktic foraminiferal distribution and stable isotope ratios of sediment core MSM05/5_712-1 from the Arctic Ocean

The Arctic is responding more rapidly to global warming than most other areas on our planet. Northward flowing Atlantic Water is the major means of heat advection towards the Arctic and strongly affects the sea ice distribution. Records of its natural variability are critical for the understanding of feedback mechanisms and the future of the Arctic climate system, but continuous historical records reach back only ~150 years. Here, we present a multidecadal scale record of ocean temperature variations during the last 2000 years, derived from marine sediments off Western Svalbard (79°N). We find that early-21st-century temperatures of Atlantic Water entering the Arctic Ocean are unprecedented over the past 2000 years and are presumably linked to the Arctic Amplification of global warming.

Measurement results of d18O, Mg/Ca, and Ti/Ca of sediment cores GeoB10042-1 and GeoB10043-3

The advection of relatively fresh Java Sea water through the Sunda Strait is presently responsible for the low-salinity "tongue" in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean with salinities as low as 32 per mil. The evolution of the hydrologic conditions in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean since the last glacial period, when the Sunda shelf was exposed and any advection via the Sunda Strait was cutoff, and the degree to which these conditions were affected by the Sunda Strait opening are not known. Here we have analyzed two sediment cores (GeoB 10042-1 and GeoB 10043-3) collected from the eastern tropical Indian Ocean off the Sunda Strait that cover the past ~40,000?years. We investigate the magnitude of terrigenous supply, sea surface temperature (SST), and seawater d18O (d18Osw) changes related to the sea level-driven opening of the Sunda Strait. Our new spliced records off the Sunda Strait show that during the last glacial, average SST was cooler and d18Osw was higher than elsewhere in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean. Seawater d18O decreased ~0.5 per mil after the opening of the Sunda Strait at ~10 kyr B.P. accompanied by an SST increase of 1.7°C. We suggest that fresher sea surface conditions have persisted ever since due to a continuous transport of low-salinity Java Sea water into the eastern tropical Indian Ocean via the Sunda Strait that additionally increased marine productivity through the concomitant increase in terrigenous supply.

Sea-surface temperature reconstruction and calibration-function of sediment cores from the Southern Ocean

We provide a new multivariate calibration-function based on South Atlantic modern assemblages of planktonic foraminifera and atlas water column parameters from the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to the Subtropical Gyre and tropical warm waters (i.e., 60°S to 0°S). Therefore, we used a dataset with the abundance pattern of 35 taxonomic groups of planktonic foraminifera in 141 surface sediment samples. Five factors were taken into consideration for the analysis, which account for 93% of the total variance of the original data representing the regional main oceanographic fronts. The new calibration-function F141-35-5 enables the reconstruction of Late Quaternary summer and winter sea-surface temperatures with a statistical error of ~0.5°C. Our function was verified by its application to a sediment core extracted from the western South Atlantic. The downcore reconstruction shows negative anomalies in sea-surface temperatures during the early-mid Holocene and temperatures within the range of modern values during the late Holocene. This pattern is consistent with available reconstructions.

Mediterranean cold-water coral measurements

This study presents aggradation rates supplemented for the first time by carbonate accumulation rates from Mediterranean cold-water coral sites considering three different regional and geomorphological settings: (i) a cold-water coral ridge (eastern Melilla coral province, Alboran Sea), (ii) a cold-water coral rubble talus deposit at the base of a submarine cliff (Urania Bank, Strait of Sicily) and (iii) a cold-water coral deposit rooted on a predefined topographic high overgrown by cold-water corals (Santa Maria di Leuca coral province, Ionian Sea). The mean aggradation rates of the respective cold-water coral deposits vary between 10 and 530 cm kyr?1 and the mean carbonate accumulation rates range between 8 and 396 g cm?2 kyr?1 with a maximum of 503 g cm?2 kyr?1 reached in the eastern Melilla coral province. Compared to other deep-water depositional environments the Mediterranean cold-water coral sites reveal significantly higher carbonate accumulation rates that were even in the range of the highest productive shallow-water Mediterranean carbonate factories (e.g. Cladocora caespitosa coral reefs). Focusing exclusively on cold-water coral occurrences, the carbonate accumulation rates of the Mediterranean cold-water coral sites are in the lower range of those obtained for the prolific Norwegian coral occurrences, but exhibit much higher rates than the cold-water coral mounds off Ireland. This study clearly indicates that cold-water corals have the potential to act as important carbonate factories and regional carbonate sinks within the Mediterranean Sea. Moreover, the data highlight the potential of cold-water corals to store carbonate with rates in the range of tropical shallow-water reefs. In order to evaluate the contribution of the cold-water coral carbonate factory to the regional or global carbonate/carbon cycle, an improved understanding of the temporal and spatial variability in aggradation and carbonate accumulation rates and areal estimates of the respective regions is needed.

Genomic and archaeological evidence suggest a dual origin of domestic dogs

The geographic and temporal origins of dogs remain controversial. We generated genetic sequences from 59 ancient dogs and a complete (28x) genome of a late Neolithic dog (dated to ~4800 calendar years before the present) from Ireland. Our analyses revealed a deep split separating modern East Asian and Western Eurasian dogs. Surprisingly, the date of this divergence (~14,000 to 6400 years ago) occurs commensurate with, or several millennia after, the first appearance of dogs in Europe and East Asia. Additional analyses of ancient and modern mitochondrial DNA revealed a sharp discontinuity in haplotype frequencies in Europe. Combined, these results suggest that dogs may have been domesticated independently in Eastern and Western Eurasia from distinct wolf populations. East Eurasian dogs were then possibly transported to Europe with people, where they partially replaced European Paleolithic dogs.

Extreme wet conditions coincident with Bronze Age abandonment of upland areas in Britain

Abandonment of farming systems on upland areas in southwest Britain during the Late Bronze Age – some 3000 years ago – is widely considered a ‘classic’ demonstration of the impact of deteriorating climate on the vulnerability of populations in such marginal environments. Here we test the hypothesis
that climate change drove the abandonment of upland areas by developing new chronologies for humanactivity on upland areas during the Bronze Age across southwest Britain (Dartmoor, Exmoor and Bodmin Moor). We find Bronze Age activity in these areas spanned 3900–2950 calendar years ago with abandonment by 2900 calendar years ago. Holocene Irish bog and lake oak tree populations provide evidence of major shifts in hydroclimate across western Britain and Ireland, coincident with ice rafted debris layers recognized in North Atlantic marine sediments, indicating significant changes in the latitude and intensity of zonal atmospheric circulation across the region. We observe abandonment of
upland areas in southwest Britain coinciding with a sustained period of extreme wet conditions that commenced 3100 calendar years ago. Our results are consistent with the view that climate change increased the vulnerability of these early farming communities and led to a less intensive use of such marginal environments across Britain.

Steps towards fully nonlinear simulations of arrays of OWSC

Abandonment of farming systems on upland areas in southwest Britain during the Late Bronze Age – some 3000 years ago – is widely considered a ‘classic’ demonstration of the impact of deteriorating climate on the vulnerability of populations in such marginal environments. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change drove the abandonment of upland areas by developing new chronologies for human activity on upland areas during the Bronze Age across southwest Britain (Dartmoor, Exmoor and Bodmin Moor). We find Bronze Age activity in these areas spanned 3900–2950 calendar years ago with abandonment by 2900 calendar years ago. Holocene Irish bog and lake oak tree populations provide evidence of major shifts in hydroclimate across western Britain and Ireland, coincident with ice rafted debris layers recognized in North Atlantic marine sediments, indicating significant changes in the latitude and intensity of zonal atmospheric circulation across the region. We observe abandonment of upland areas in southwest Britain coinciding with a sustained period of extreme wet conditions that commenced 3100 calendar years ago. Our results are consistent with the view that climate change increased the vulnerability of these early farming communities and led to a less intensive use of such marginal environments across Britain.

Modèles de dépendance hiérarchique pour l’évaluation des passifs et la tarification en actuariat

Dans cette thèse on s’intéresse à la modélisation de la dépendance entre les risques en assurance non-vie, plus particulièrement dans le cadre des méthodes de provisionnement et en tarification. On expose le contexte actuel et les enjeux liés à la modélisation de la dépendance et l’importance d’une telle approche avec l’avènement des nouvelles normes et exigences des organismes réglementaires quant à la solvabilité des compagnies d’assurances générales. Récemment, Shi et Frees (2011) suggère d’incorporer la dépendance entre deux lignes d’affaires à travers une copule bivariée qui capture la dépendance entre deux cellules équivalentes de deux triangles de développement. Nous proposons deux approches différentes pour généraliser ce modèle. La première est basée sur les copules archimédiennes hiérarchiques, et la deuxième sur les effets aléatoires et la famille de distributions bivariées Sarmanov. Nous nous intéressons dans un premier temps, au Chapitre 2, à un modèle utilisant la classe des copules archimédiennes hiérarchiques, plus précisément la famille des copules partiellement imbriquées, afin d’inclure la dépendance à l’intérieur et entre deux lignes d’affaires à travers les effets calendaires. Par la suite, on considère un modèle alternatif, issu d’une autre classe de la famille des copules archimédiennes hiérarchiques, celle des copules totalement imbriquées, afin de modéliser la dépendance entre plus de deux lignes d’affaires. Une approche avec agrégation des risques basée sur un modèle formé d’une arborescence de copules bivariées y est également explorée. Une particularité importante de l’approche décrite au Chapitre 3 est que l’inférence au niveau de la dépendance se fait à travers les rangs des résidus, afin de pallier un éventuel risque de mauvaise spécification des lois marginales et de la copule régissant la dépendance. Comme deuxième approche, on s’intéresse également à la modélisation de la dépendance à travers des effets aléatoires. Pour ce faire, on considère la famille de distributions bivariées Sarmanov qui permet une modélisation flexible à l’intérieur et entre les lignes d’affaires, à travers les effets d’années de calendrier, années d’accident et périodes de développement. Des expressions fermées de la distribution jointe, ainsi qu’une illustration empirique avec des triangles de développement sont présentées au Chapitre 4. Aussi, nous proposons un modèle avec effets aléatoires dynamiques, où l’on donne plus de poids aux années les plus récentes, et utilisons l’information de la ligne corrélée afin d’effectuer une meilleure prédiction du risque. Cette dernière approche sera étudiée au Chapitre 5, à travers une application numérique sur les nombres de réclamations, illustrant l’utilité d’un tel modèle dans le cadre de la tarification. On conclut cette thèse par un rappel sur les contributions scientifiques de cette thèse, tout en proposant des angles d’ouvertures et des possibilités d’extension de ces travaux.

A Jewish Calendar for sixtyfour years, detailing the new moons, festivals, and fasts : ... to which are added tabl. for continuing the calendar to A. M. 6000-2240 C. Ae. and a chronological table ...

by E. H. Lindo

High cost of gasoline and other petroleum products. Hearings before a subcommittee of the Committee on manufactures, United States Senate, Sixty-seventh Congress, fourth session, pursuant to S. Res. 295 amending S. Res. 292, directing the Committee on manufactures to investigate and report to the Senate the conditions of the crude oil and gasoline markets during the years 1920, 1921, and to date in 1922, agreed to April 20 (calendar day, May 13), 1922.

Robert M. La Follette, chairman.