The Effect of Four-Lane to Three-Lane Conversion on the Number of Crashes and Crash Rates in Iowa Roads, June 2005

We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

Validity of the Katz Index to assess activities of daily living by informants in neuropathological studies

Abstract OBJECTIVE To analyze the evidences of construct validity of the Katz Index for the retrospective assessment of activities of daily living (ADL) by informants, to assist neuropathological studies in the elderly. METHOD A cross-sectional study analyzed the functional ability of ADL measure by the Katz Index, of 650 cases randomly selected from the Brazilian Brain Bank of the Ageing Brain Study Group (BBBABSG) database. Sample was divided in two subsamples for the analysis (N=325, each) and then stratified according to cognitive decline assessed by the Clinical Dementia Rating Scale (CDR). Factor analyses with calculations of internal consistency and invariance were performed. RESULTS Factor analysis evidenced a unidimensional instrument with optimal internal consistency, in all subgroups. Goodness of fit indices were obtained after two treatments of covariance, indicating adequacy of the scale for assessing ADL by informants. The scale is invariant to cognitive decline meaning that it can be used for subjects with or without cognitive impairment. CONCLUSION Katz Index is valid for the retrospective assessment of basic ADL by informants, with optimal reliability.

Validation of the NGM SElect(TM) kit

The Swiss national database was launched August 2000 based on the 10 SGM Plus loci. With the aim ofaddressing the needs of the next-generation European STR genotyping systems in Switzerland, wevalidated the NGM SElectTM kit. In this study, we present the results of forensic validation studiesincluding the following aspects: sensitivity, heterozygote peak height ratio calculations, performancewith simulated PCR inhibition, proficiency tests and Swiss population data.

Factor prices and productivity growth during the British Industrial Revolution

This paper presents new estimates of total factor productivity growth in Britain for the period1770 1860. We use the dual technique and argue that the estimates we derive from factorprices are of similar quality to quantity-based calculations. Our results provide further evidence,calculated on the basis of an independent set of sources, that productivity growth duringthe British Industrial Revolution was relatively slow. The Crafts Harley view of theIndustrial Revolution is thus reinforced. Our preferred estimates suggest a modest accelerationafter 1800.

A importância dos papéis de trabalho numa auditoria financeira Estudo de Caso duma Auditoria à Empresa PANAF, S.A. Exercício de 2012

O presente trabalho propõe estudar a importância dos papéis de trabalho numa auditoria financeira, neste propósito escolheu-se uma firma especializada de auditoria da qual oaluno integrou-se à equipa de trabalho com o intuito de estudar um caso, visandocompreender melhor a relevância que este tem em termos práticos. Os papéis de trabalho, são um conjunto de documentos utilizados na execução dostrabalhos de auditoria que evidencia os exames do auditor. Essas documentações são normalmente preparadas pelo próprio auditor no decorrer do seu trabalho e também porterceiros. Por meio dos papéis de trabalho, o auditor deve obter a prova de auditoria apropriada esuficiente, através de inspeções, observações, indagações, confirmações, cálculos eprocedimentos analíticos, cujas conclusões devem ser adequadamente documentadas deforma a suportar a sua opinião. O auditor deve documentar através dos papéis de trabalho todas as questões que foramconsideradas importantes para proporcionar evidência, com o propósito de fundamentara sua opinião e comprovar que a auditoria foi executada de acordo com as normas deauditoria internacionais aplicáveis.This paper proposes to disclose the importance of Working Papers in financial audit, this purpose we have chosen a firm specialized audit which the student has joined the a team working with the aim of a case study, to better understand the relevance this has in practice. Working Papers are a set of documents used in the execution of audit work that reflects the auditor's examination, These documents are usually prepared by the auditor in the course of their work and also by third parties. Through the Working Papers, the auditor should obtain audit evidence enoughly appropriate, through inspections, observations, questions, confirmations, calculations and analytical procedures, whose findings should be properly documented in order to support your opinion. The auditor should document through Working Papers all issues that were considered important to provide evidence in order to substantiate its view and confirm that the audit was performed in agreement with the international applicable auditing standards.