Report of the 2010 assessment of the scientific assessment panel: future ozone and its impact on surface UV

SCIENTIFIC SUMMARY Globally averaged total column ozone has declined over recent decades due to the release of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) into the atmosphere. Now, as a result of the Montreal Protocol, ozone is expected to recover from the effects of ODSs as ODS abundances decline in the coming decades. However, a number of factors in addition to ODSs have led to and will continue to lead to changes in ozone. Discriminating between the causes of past and projected ozone changes is necessary, not only to identify the progress in ozone recovery from ODSs, but also to evaluate the effectiveness of climate and ozone protection policy options. Factors Affecting Future Ozone and Surface Ultraviolet Radiation • At least for the next few decades, the decline of ODSs is expected to be the major factor affecting the anticipated increase in global total column ozone. However, several factors other than ODS will affect the future evolution of ozone in the stratosphere. These include changes in (i) stratospheric circulation and temperature due to changes in long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) abundances, (ii) stratospheric aerosol loading, and (iii) source gases of highly reactive stratospheric hydrogen and nitrogen compounds. Factors that amplify the effects of ODSs on ozone (e.g., stratospheric aerosols) will likely decline in importance as ODSs are gradually eliminated from the atmosphere. • Increases in GHG emissions can both positively and negatively affect ozone. Carbon dioxide (CO2)-induced stratospheric cooling elevates middle and upper stratospheric ozone and decreases the time taken for ozone to return to 1980 levels, while projected GHG-induced increases in tropical upwelling decrease ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere and increase ozone in the extratropics. Increases in nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) concentrations also directly impact ozone chemistry but the effects are different in different regions. • The Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) is projected to strengthen over the 21st century and thereby affect ozone amounts. Climate models consistently predict an acceleration of the BDC or, more specifically, of the upwelling mass flux in the tropical lower stratosphere of around 2% per decade as a consequence of GHG abundance increases. A stronger BDC would decrease the abundance of tropical lower stratospheric ozone, increase poleward transport of ozone, and could reduce the atmospheric lifetimes of long-lived ODSs and other trace gases. While simulations showing faster ascent in the tropical lower stratosphere to date are a robust feature of chemistry-climate models (CCMs), this has not been confirmed by observations and the responsible mechanisms remain unclear. • Substantial ozone losses could occur if stratospheric aerosol loading were to increase in the next few decades, while halogen levels are high. Stratospheric aerosol increases may be caused by sulfur contained in volcanic plumes entering the stratosphere or from human activities. The latter might include attempts to geoengineer the climate system by enhancing the stratospheric aerosol layer. The ozone losses mostly result from enhanced heterogeneous chemistry on stratospheric aerosols. Enhanced aerosol heating within the stratosphere also leads to changes in temperature and circulation that affect ozone. • Surface ultraviolet (UV) levels will not be affected solely by ozone changes but also by the effects of climate change and by air quality change in the troposphere. These tropospheric effects include changes in clouds, tropospheric aerosols, surface reflectivity, and tropospheric sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). The uncertainties in projections of these factors are large. Projected increases in tropospheric ozone are more certain and may lead to reductions in surface erythemal (“sunburning”) irradiance of up to 10% by 2100. Changes in clouds may lead to decreases or increases in surface erythemal irradiance of up to 15% depending on latitude. Expected Future Changes in Ozone Full ozone recovery from the effects of ODSs and return of ozone to historical levels are not synonymous. In this chapter a key target date is chosen to be 1980, in part to retain the connection to previous Ozone Assessments. Noting, however, that decreases in ozone may have occurred in some regions of the atmosphere prior to 1980, 1960 return dates are also reported. The projections reported on in this chapter are taken from a recent compilation of CCM simulations. The ozone projections, which also form the basis for the UV projections, are limited in their representativeness of possible futures since they mostly come from CCM simulations based on a single GHG emissions scenario (scenario A1B of Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2000) and a single ODS emissions scenario (adjusted A1 of the previous (2006) Ozone Assessment). Throughout this century, the vertical, latitudinal, and seasonal structure of the ozone distribution will be different from what it was in 1980. For this reason, ozone changes in different regions of the atmosphere are considered separately. • The projections of changes in ozone and surface clear-sky UV are broadly consistent with those reported on in the 2006 Assessment. • The capability of making projections and attribution of future ozone changes has been improved since the 2006 Assessment. Use of CCM simulations from an increased number of models extending through the entire period of ozone depletion and recovery from ODSs (1960–2100) as well as sensitivity simulations have allowed more robust projections of long-term changes in the stratosphere and of the relative contributions of ODSs and GHGs to those changes. • Global annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels before the middle of the century and earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading returns to 1980 levels. CCM projections suggest that this early return is primarily a result of GHG-induced cooling of the upper stratosphere because the effects of circulation changes on tropical and extratropical ozone largely cancel. Global (90°S–90°N) annually averaged total column ozone will likely return to 1980 levels between 2025 and 2040, well before the return of stratospheric halogens to 1980 levels between 2045 and 2060. • Simulated changes in tropical total column ozone from 1960 to 2100 are generally small. The evolution of tropical total column ozone in models depends on the balance between upper stratospheric increases and lower stratospheric decreases. The upper stratospheric increases result from declining ODSs and a slowing of ozone destruction resulting from GHG-induced cooling. Ozone decreases in the lower stratosphere mainly result from an increase in tropical upwelling. From 1960 until around 2000, a general decline is simulated, followed by a gradual increase to values typical of 1980 by midcentury. Thereafter, although total column ozone amounts decline slightly again toward the end of the century, by 2080 they are no longer expected to be affected by ODSs. Confidence in tropical ozone projections is compromised by the fact that simulated decreases in column ozone to date are not supported by observations, suggesting that significant uncertainties remain. • Midlatitude total column ozone is simulated to evolve differently in the two hemispheres. Over northern midlatitudes, annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values between 2015 and 2030, while for southern midlatitudes the return to 1980 values is projected to occur between 2030 and 2040. The more rapid return to 1980 values in northern midlatitudes is linked to a more pronounced strengthening of the poleward transport of ozone due to the effects of increased GHG levels, and effects of Antarctic ozone depletion on southern midlatitudes. By 2100, midlatitude total column ozone is projected to be above 1980 values in both hemispheres. • October-mean Antarctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels after midcentury, later than in any other region, and yet earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading is projected to return to 1980 levels. The slightly earlier return of ozone to 1980 levels (2045–2060) results primarily from upper stratospheric cooling and resultant increases in ozone. The return of polar halogen loading to 1980 levels (2050–2070) in CCMs is earlier than in empirical models that exclude the effects of GHG-induced changes in circulation. Our confidence in the drivers of changes in Antarctic ozone is higher than for other regions because (i) ODSs exert a strong influence on Antarctic ozone, (ii) the effects of changes in GHG abundances are comparatively small, and (iii) projections of ODS emissions are more certain than those for GHGs. Small Antarctic ozone holes (areas of ozone <220 Dobson units, DU) could persist to the end of the 21st century. • March-mean Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels two to three decades before polar halogen loading returns to 1980 levels, and to exceed 1980 levels thereafter. While CCM simulations project a return to 1980 levels between 2020 and 2035, most models tend not to capture observed low temperatures and thus underestimate present-day Arctic ozone loss such that it is possible that this return date is biased early. Since the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation through the 21st century leads to increases in springtime Arctic column ozone, by 2100 Arctic ozone is projected to lie well above 1960 levels. Uncertainties in Projections • Conclusions dependent on future GHG levels are less certain than those dependent on future ODS levels since ODS emissions are controlled by the Montreal Protocol. For the six GHG scenarios considered by a few CCMs, the simulated differences in stratospheric column ozone over the second half of the 21st century are largest in the northern midlatitudes and the Arctic, with maximum differences of 20–40 DU between the six scenarios in 2100. • There remain sources of uncertainty in the CCM simulations. These include the use of prescribed ODS mixing ratios instead of emission fluxes as lower boundary conditions, the range of sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, missing tropospheric chemistry, model parameterizations, and model climate sensitivity. • Geoengineering schemes for mitigating climate change by continuous injections of sulfur-containing compounds into the stratosphere, if implemented, would substantially affect stratospheric ozone, particularly in polar regions. Ozone losses observed following large volcanic eruptions support this prediction. However, sporadic volcanic eruptions provide limited analogs to the effects of continuous sulfur emissions. Preliminary model simulations reveal large uncertainties in assessing the effects of continuous sulfur injections. Expected Future Changes in Surface UV. While a number of factors, in addition to ozone, affect surface UV irradiance, the focus in this chapter is on the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone on surface UV. For this reason, clear-sky surface UV irradiance is calculated from ozone projections from CCMs. • Projected increases in midlatitude ozone abundances during the 21st century, in the absence of changes in other factors, in particular clouds, tropospheric aerosols, and air pollutants, will result in decreases in surface UV irradiance. Clear-sky erythemal irradiance is projected to return to 1980 levels on average in 2025 for the northern midlatitudes, and in 2035 for the southern midlatitudes, and to fall well below 1980 values by the second half of the century. However, actual changes in surface UV will be affected by a number of factors other than ozone. • In the absence of changes in other factors, changes in tropical surface UV will be small because changes in tropical total column ozone are projected to be small. By the middle of the 21st century, the model projections suggest surface UV to be slightly higher than in the 1960s, very close to values in 1980, and slightly lower than in 2000. The projected decrease in tropical total column ozone through the latter half of the century will likely result in clear-sky surface UV remaining above 1960 levels. Average UV irradiance is already high in the tropics due to naturally occurring low total ozone columns and high solar elevations. • The magnitude of UV changes in the polar regions is larger than elsewhere because ozone changes in polar regions are larger. For the next decades, surface clear-sky UV irradiance, particularly in the Antarctic, will continue to be higher than in 1980. Future increases in ozone and decreases in clear-sky UV will occur at slower rates than those associated with the ozone decreases and UV increases that occurred before 2000. In Antarctica, surface clear-sky UV is projected to return to 1980 levels between 2040 and 2060, while in the Arctic this is projected to occur between 2020 and 2030. By 2100, October surface clear-sky erythemal irradiance in Antarctica is likely to be between 5% below to 25% above 1960 levels, with considerable uncertainty. This is consistent with multi-model-mean October Antarctic total column ozone not returning to 1960 levels by 2100. In contrast, by 2100, surface clear-sky UV in the Arctic is projected to be 0–10% below 1960 levels.

Pleiotropic effects of TCF7L2 gene variants and its modulation in the metabolic syndrome: from the LIPGENE study

Aims/hypothesis: Variants of the TCF7L2 gene predict the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We investigated the associations between gene variants of TCF7L2 and clinical features of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) (an entity often preceeding T2DM), and their interaction with non-genetic factors, including plasma saturated fatty acids (SFA) concentration and insulin resistance (IR). Methods: Fasting lipid profiles, insulin sensitivity, insulin secretion, anthropometrics, blood pressure and 10 gene variations of the TCF7L2 gene were determined in 450 subjects with MetS. Results: Several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) showed phenotypic associations independent of SFA or IR. Carriers of the rare T allele of rs7903146, and of three other SNPs in linkage disequilibrium with rs7903146, had lower blood pressure and insulin secretion. High IR and the presence of the T-allele of rs7903146 acted synergistically to define those with reduced insulin secretion. Carriers of the minor allele of rs290481 exhibited an altered lipid profile, with increased plasma levels of apolipoprotein B, non-esterified fatty acids, cholesterol and apolipoprotein B in triglyceride rich lipoproteins, and LDL cholesterol. Carriers of the minor allele of rs11196224 that had higher plasma SFA levels showed elevated procoagulant/proinflammatory biomarkers, impaired insulin secretion and increased IR, whereas carriers of the minor allele of rs17685538 with high plasma SFA levels exhibited higher blood pressure. Conclusions/interpretation: SNP in the TCF7L2 gene are associated with differences in insulin secretion, blood pressure, blood lipids and coagulation in MetS patients, and may be modulated by SFA in plasma or IR.

Genome sequences of the human body louse and its primary endosymbiont provide insights into the permanent parasitic lifestyle

As an obligatory parasite of humans, the body louse (Pediculus humanus humanus) is an important vector for human diseases, including epidemic typhus, relapsing fever, and trench fever. Here, we present genome sequences of the body louse and its primary bacterial endosymbiont Candidatus Riesia pediculicola. The body louse has the smallest known insect genome, spanning 108 Mb. Despite its status as an obligate parasite, it retains a remarkably complete basal insect repertoire of 10,773 protein-coding genes and 57 microRNAs. Representing hemimetabolous insects, the genome of the body louse thus provides a reference for studies of holometabolous insects. Compared with other insect genomes, the body louse genome contains significantly fewer genes associated with environmental sensing and response, including odorant and gustatory receptors and detoxifying enzymes. The unique architecture of the 18 minicircular mitochondrial chromosomes of the body louse may be linked to the loss of the gene encoding the mitochondrial single-stranded DNA binding protein. The genome of the obligatory louse endosymbiont Candidatus Riesia pediculicola encodes less than 600 genes on a short, linear chromosome and a circular plasmid. The plasmid harbors a unique arrangement of genes required for the synthesis of pantothenate, an essential vitamin deficient in the louse diet. The human body louse, its primary endosymbiont, and the bacterial pathogens that it vectors all possess genomes reduced in size compared with their free-living close relatives. Thus, the body louse genome project offers unique information and tools to use in advancing understanding of coevolution among vectors, symbionts, and pathogens.

A comparison of space weather analysis techniques used to predict the arrival of the Earth-directed CME and its shockwave launched on 8 April 2010

The Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) of 8 April 2010 provided an opportunity for space weather predictions from both established and developmental techniques to be made from near–real time data received from the SOHO and STEREO spacecraft; the STEREO spacecraft provide a unique view of Earth-directed events from outside the Sun-Earth line. Although the near–real time data transmitted by the STEREO Space Weather Beacon are significantly poorer in quality than the subsequently downlinked science data, the use of these data has the advantage that near–real time analysis is possible, allowing actual forecasts to be made. The fact that such forecasts cannot be biased by any prior knowledge of the actual arrival time at Earth provides an opportunity for an unbiased comparison between several established and developmental forecasting techniques. We conclude that for forecasts based on the STEREO coronagraph data, it is important to take account of the subsequent acceleration/deceleration of each CME through interaction with the solar wind, while predictions based on measurements of CMEs made by the STEREO Heliospheric Imagers would benefit from higher temporal and spatial resolution. Space weather forecasting tools must work with near–real time data; such data, when provided by science missions, is usually highly compressed and/or reduced in temporal/spatial resolution and may also have significant gaps in coverage, making such forecasts more challenging.

Modulation of pro-survival Akt/protein kinase B and ERK1/2 signaling cascades by quercetin and its in vivo metabolites underlie their action on neuronal viability

Much recent interest has focused on the potential of flavonoids to interact with intracellular signaling pathways such as with the mitogen-activated protein kinase cascade. We have investigated whether the observed strong neurotoxic potential of quercetin in primary cortical neurons may occur via specific and sensitive interactions within neuronal mitogen-activated protein kinase and Akt/protein kinase B (PKB) signaling cascades, both implicated in neuronal apoptosis. Quercetin induced potent inhibition of both Akt/PKB and ERK phosphorylation, resulting in reduced phosphorylation of BAD and a strong activation of caspase-3. High quercetin concentrations (30 microM) led to sustained loss of Akt phosphorylation and subsequent Akt cleavage by caspase-3, whereas at lower concentrations (<10 microM) the inhibition of Akt phosphorylation was transient and eventually returned to basal levels. Lower levels of quercetin also induced strong activation of the pro-survival transcription factor cAMP-responsive element-binding protein, although this did not prevent neuronal damage. O-Methylated quercetin metabolites inhibited Akt/PKB to lesser extent and did not induce such strong activation of caspase-3, which was reflected in the lower amount of damage they inflicted on neurons. In contrast, neither quercetin nor its O-methylated metabolites had any measurable effect on c-Jun N-terminal kinase phosphorylation. The glucuronide of quercetin was not toxic and did not evoke any alterations in neuronal signaling, probably reflecting its inability to enter neurons. Together these data suggest that quercetin and to a lesser extent its O-methylated metabolites may induce neuronal death via a mechanism involving an inhibition of neuronal survival signaling through the inhibition of both Akt/PKB and ERK rather than by an activation of the c-Jun N-terminal kinase-mediated death pathway.

Epicatechin and its methylated metabolite attenuate UVA-induced oxidative damage to human skin fibroblasts

The ultraviolet A component of sunlight causes both acute and chronic damage to human skin. In this study the potential of epicatechin, an abundant dietary flavanol, and 3'-O-methyl epicatechin, one of its major in vivo metabolites, to protect against UVA-induced damage was examined using cultured human skin fibroblasts as an in vitro model. The results obtained clearly show that both epicatechin and its metabolite protect these fibroblasts against UVA damage and cell death. The hydrogen-donating antioxidant properties of these compounds are probably not the mediators of this protective response. The protection is a consequence of induction of resistance to UVA mediated by the compounds and involves newly synthesized proteins. The study provides clear evidence that this dietary flavanol has the potential to protect human skin against the deleterious effects of sunlight.

Intracellular metabolism and bioactivity of quercetin and its in vivo metabolites

Understanding the cellular effects of flavonoid metabolites is important for predicting which dietary flavonoids might be most beneficial in vivo. Here we investigate the bioactivity in dermal fibroblasts of the major reported in vivo metabolites of quercetin, i.e. 3'-O-methyl quercetin, 4'-O-methyl quercetin and quercetin 7-O-beta-D-glucuronide, relative to that of quercetin, in terms of their further metabolism and their resulting cytotoxic and/or cytoprotective effects in the absence and presence of oxidative stress. Uptake experiments indicate that exposure to quercetin led to the generation of two novel cellular metabolites, one characterized as a 2'-glutathionyl quercetin conjugate and another product with similar spectral characteristics but 1 mass unit lower, putatively a quinone/quinone methide. A similar product was identified in cells exposed to 3'-O-methyl quercetin, but not in the lysates of those exposed to its 4'-O-methyl counterpart, suggesting that its formation is related to oxidative metabolism. There was no uptake or metabolism of quercetin 7-O-beta-D-glucuronide by fibroblasts. Formation of oxidative metabolites may explain the observed concentration-dependent toxicity of quercetin and 3'-O-methyl quercetin, whereas the formation of a 2'-glutathionyl quercetin conjugate is interpreted as a detoxification step. Both O -methylated metabolites conferred less protection than quercetin against peroxide-induced damage, and quercetin glucuronide was ineffective. The ability to modulate cellular toxicity paralleled the ability of the compounds to decrease the level of peroxide-induced caspase-3 activation. Our data suggest that the actions of quercetin and its metabolites in vivo are mediated by intracellular metabolites.