Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 2: climate model evaluation and projected impacts from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

Previous assessments of the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality use the "delta method" to create temperature projection time series that are applied to temperature-mortality models to estimate future mortality impacts. The delta method means that climate model bias in the modelled present does not influence the temperature projection time series and impacts. However, the delta method assumes that climate change will result only in a change in the mean temperature but there is evidence that there will also be changes in the variability of temperature with climate change. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of considering changes in temperature variability with climate change in impacts assessments of future heat-related mortality. We investigate future heatrelated mortality impacts in six cities (Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney) by applying temperature projections from the UK Meteorological Office HadCM3 climate model to the temperature-mortality models constructed and validated in Part 1. We investigate the impacts for four cases based on various combinations of mean and variability changes in temperature with climate change. The results demonstrate that higher mortality is attributed to increases in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change rather than with the change in mean temperature alone. This has implications for interpreting existing impacts estimates that have used the delta method. We present a novel method for the creation of temperature projection time series that includes changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change and is not influenced by climate model bias in the modelled present. The method should be useful for future impacts assessments. Few studies consider the implications that the limitations of the climate model may have on the heatrelated mortality impacts. Here, we demonstrate the importance of considering this by conducting an evaluation of the daily and extreme temperatures from HadCM3, which demonstrates that the estimates of future heat-related mortality for Dallas and Lisbon may be overestimated due to positive climate model bias. Likewise, estimates for Boston and London may be underestimated due to negative climate model bias. Finally, we briefly consider uncertainties in the impacts associated with greenhouse gas emissions and acclimatisation. The uncertainties in the mortality impacts due to different emissions scenarios of greenhouse gases in the future varied considerably by location. Allowing for acclimatisation to an extra 2°C in mean temperatures reduced future heat-related mortality by approximately half that of no acclimatisation in each city.

Projected impacts on heat-related mortality from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of changing temperature variability with climate change in assessments of future heat-related mortality. Previous studies have only considered changes in the mean temperature. Here we present estimates of heat-related mortality resulting from climate change for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney. They are based on climate change scenarios for the 2080s (2070-2099) and the temperature-mortality (t-m) models constructed and validated in Gosling et al. (2007). We propose a novel methodology for assessing the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality that considers both changes in the mean and variability of the temperature distribution.

Short-range urban dispersion experiments using fixed and moving sources

Four perfluorocarbon tracer dispersion experiments were carried out in central London, United Kingdom in 2004. These experiments were supplementary to the dispersion of air pollution and penetration into the local environment (DAPPLE) campaign and consisted of ground level releases, roof level releases and mobile releases; the latter are believed to be the first such experiments to be undertaken. A detailed description of the experiments including release, sampling, analysis and wind observations is given. The characteristics of dispersion from the fixed and mobile sources are discussed and contrasted, in particular, the decay in concentration levels away from the source location and the additional variability that results from the non-uniformity of vehicle speed. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

A Bayesian approach to estimate sensible and latent heat over vegetated land surface

Sensible and latent heat fluxes are often calculated from bulk transfer equations combined with the energy balance. For spatial estimates of these fluxes, a combination of remotely sensed and standard meteorological data from weather stations is used. The success of this approach depends on the accuracy of the input data and on the accuracy of two variables in particular: aerodynamic and surface conductance. This paper presents a Bayesian approach to improve estimates of sensible and latent heat fluxes by using a priori estimates of aerodynamic and surface conductance alongside remote measurements of surface temperature. The method is validated for time series of half-hourly measurements in a fully grown maize field, a vineyard and a forest. It is shown that the Bayesian approach yields more accurate estimates of sensible and latent heat flux than traditional methods.

Climate entropy budget of the HadCM3 atmosphere-ocean general circulation model and of FAMOUS, its low resolution version

The entropy budget is calculated of the coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model HadCM3. Estimates of the different entropy sources and sinks of the climate system are obtained directly from the diabatic heating terms, and an approximate estimate of the planetary entropy production is also provided. The rate of material entropy production of the climate system is found to be ∼50 mW m−2 K−1, a value intermediate in the range 30–70 mW m−2 K−1 previously reported from different models. The largest part of this is due to sensible and latent heat transport (∼38 mW m−2 K−1). Another 13 mW m−2 K−1 is due to dissipation of kinetic energy in the atmosphere by friction and Reynolds stresses. Numerical entropy production in the atmosphere dynamical core is found to be about 0.7 mW m−2 K−1. The material entropy production within the ocean due to turbulent mixing is ∼1 mW m−2 K−1, a very small contribution to the material entropy production of the climate system. The rate of change of entropy of the model climate system is about 1 mW m−2 K−1 or less, which is comparable with the typical size of the fluctuations of the entropy sources due to interannual variability, and a more accurate closure of the budget than achieved by previous analyses. Results are similar for FAMOUS, which has a lower spatial resolution but similar formulation to HadCM3, while more substantial differences are found with respect to other models, suggesting that the formulation of the model has an important influence on the climate entropy budget. Since this is the first diagnosis of the entropy budget in a climate model of the type and complexity used for projection of twenty-first century climate change, it would be valuable if similar analyses were carried out for other such models.

Characteristics of silica-rich pedofeatures in a buried paleosol

Whitish and whitish-light brown milky-like textural pedofeatures and impregnations were found in the voids and the matrix of buried paleosols older than 2.7 million years in a site in Sardinia, Italy. The pedofeatures were described and analysed using micromorphology, X-ray diffraction and microprobe techniques, and their spatial distribution correlated with field evidence. The suite of analyses showed that the main components of the pedofeatures were more or less ordered silica phases. As well as forming a matrix cement, these pedofeatures also occurred as coatings and infillings in pores. Significant amounts of alumina and, less, Mg, Ca and Fe were also present in the pedofeatures, possibly in the form of silicate coatings and inclusions/impurities, or alumino-silicates of the adjacent soil matrix. A number of hypotheses are drawn on the possible mechanisms of formation of these silica-rich pedofeatures, including the possibility of prolonged weathering of volcanic materials and the resulting formation of colloids and more or less ordered silica phases, with successive dehydration and progressive ordering of phases during the at least 2.5 million years. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sources of sulphur in gypsiferous sediments and crusts and pathways of gypsum redistribution in southern Tunisia

Southern Tunisia contains one of the most extensive gypsum accumulations in Africa comprising Triassic, Cretaceous, Eocene and Mio-Pliocene marine evaporites, spring deposits, playa sediments, aeolian sands and gypsum crusts. Sulphur isotope analysis (delta(34)S) of bedrock samples, groundwater, playa brines, playa sediments, and gypsiferous crusts provides insight into the sources of gypsum in the region and sheds light on the processes that lead to gypsum crust formation. Results Suggest that recycling of marine gypsum is the most likely source of the sulphate in the groundwater, playa sediments and crusts. The low PS values found in Eocene and Mio-Pliocene samples suggest that this recycling has been going on for millions of years. Though bedrock appears to be the ultimate source of the gypsum in the crusts, transport of this sulphate to playas, concentration therein, and subsequent dispersal across the landscape by aeolian processes provides the most likely pathway for surticial gypsum crust formation. Comparison of these results with those from Australia, Chile and Namibia suggests that, although the source of the sulphur varies from region to region, the processes of surficial crust formation appear to be similar. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.