Assessment of spatiotemporal varying relationships between rainfall, land cover and surface water area using geographically weighted regression

Traditional regression techniques such as ordinary least squares (OLS) are often unable to accurately model spatially varying data and may ignore or hide local variations in model coefficients. A relatively new technique, geographically weighted regression (GWR) has been shown to greatly improve model performance compared to OLS in terms of higher R 2 and lower corrected Akaike information criterion (AICC). GWR models have the potential to improve reliabilities of the identified relationships by reducing spatial autocorrelations and by accounting for local variations and spatial non-stationarity between dependent and independent variables. In this study, GWR was used to examine the relationship between land cover, rainfall and surface water habitat in 149 sub-catchments in a predominately agricultural region covering 2.6 million ha in southeast Australia. The application of the GWR models revealed that the relationships between land cover, rainfall and surface water habitat display significant spatial non-stationarity. GWR showed improvements over analogous OLS models in terms of higher R 2 and lower AICC. The increased explanatory power of GWR was confirmed by the results of an approximate likelihood ratio test, which showed statistically significant improvements over analogous OLS models. The models suggest that the amount of surface water area in the landscape is related to anthropogenic drainage practices enhancing runoff to facilitate intensive agriculture and increased plantation forestry. However, with some key variables not present in our analysis, the strength of this relationship could not be qualified. GWR techniques have the potential to serve as a useful tool for environmental research and management across a broad range of scales for the investigation of spatially varying relationships.

Integrating agriculture and food policy to achieve sustainable peri-urban fruit and vegetable production in Victoria, Australia

Efforts to increase fruit and vegetable consump­tion are a significant aspect of national approaches to preventive health. However, policy frameworks for increasing fruit and vegetable consumption rarely take an integrated food-systems approach that includes a focus on production. In this policy analysis and commentary we examine fruit and vegetable production in peri-urban areas of Melbourne in Victoria, Australia, and highlight the significance of emerging environmental and eco­nomic pressures on fruit and vegetable production. This examination will be of interest to other locations around the world also experiencing pressure on their peri-urban agriculture. These pressures suggest that the availability and afforda­bility of fruit and vegetable supplies cannot be taken for granted, and that future initiatives to increase fruit and vegetable consumption should include a focus on sustainable production. Threats to production that include environmental pressures, together with the loss and cost of peri-urban agri­cultural land and a cost-price squeeze due to rising input costs and low farm-gate prices, act in combi­nation to threaten the viability of the Victorian fruit and vegetable industries. We pro­pose that policy initiatives to increase fruit and vegetable consumption should include measures to address the pressures facing production, and that the most effective policy responses are likely to be integrated approaches that aim to increase fruit and vegetable availability and affordability through innovative solutions to problems of production and distribu­tion. Some brief examples of potential integrated policy solutions are identified to illu­strate the possibilities and stimulate discussion.

Biotechnology in U.S. agriculture: Trade consequences for dairy products

The emergence of synthetic bovine Somatotropin (bST) is one of the most widely discussed advances in biotechnology. Its potential impacts on milk production around the world could be significant. However, the exact economic impacts of bST in any one region depends on a number of factors, some of which are still highly controversial.

This article sets out to estimate the economic impacts of the adoption of bST in the United States, the single largest milk producer in the Western world. A quarterly econometric model of the U.S. dairy sector is used to forecast the total production, consumption, and excess supply of milk to 1995. The preliminary results indicate that under the assumption of a gradual rate of adoption and a 15 percent milk production response, the United States could be exporting as much milk as New Zealand by 1995. Should the production response rate or the adoption rate be higher, the United States could indeed become a major competitor in the world dairy market by 1995.

Although such a development could adversely impact on other dairy exporters, such as New Zealand, the precise economic impacts on world prices and trade would depend crucially on the position that other major dairy producers, especially the EC, adopt with respect to the use of bST.

Soaring and gliding flight of migrating broad-winged hawks : behavior in the nearctic and neotropics compared

We compared migrating behavior of Broad-winged Hawks (Buteo platypterus) at two sites along their migration corridor: Hawk Mountain Sanctuary in eastern Pennsylvania and the Kéköldi Indigenous Reserve in Limón, Costa Rica. We counted the number of times focal birds intermittently flapped their wings and recorded the general flight type (straight-line soaring and gliding on flexed wings versus circle-soaring on fully extended wings). We used a logistic model to evaluate which conditions were good for soaring by calculating the probability of occurrence or absence of wing flaps. Considering that even intermittent flapping is energetically more expensive than pure soaring and gliding flight, we restricted a second analysis to birds that flapped during observations, and used the number of flaps to evaluate factors influencing the cost of migration. Both the occurrence and extent of flapping were greater in Pennsylvania than in Costa Rica, and during periods of straight-line soaring and gliding flight compared with circle-soaring. At both sites, flapping was more likely during rainy weather and early and late in the day compared with the middle of the day. Birds in Costa Rica flew in larger flocks than those in Pennsylvania, and birds flying in large flocks flapped less than those flying alone or in smaller flocks. In Pennsylvania, but not in Costa Rica, the number of flaps was higher when skies were overcast than when skies were clear or partly cloudy. In Costa Rica, but not in Pennsylvania, flapping decreased as temperature increased. Our results indicate that birds migrating in large flocks do so more efficiently than those flying alone and in smaller flocks, and that overall, soaring conditions are better in Costa Rica than in Pennsylvania. We discuss how differences in instantaneous migration costs at the two sites may shift the species' migration strategy from one of time minimization in Pennsylvania to one of energy minimization in Costa Rica.

The broad-scale distribution of five jellyfish species across a temperate coastal environment

Jellyfish (medusae) are sometimes the most noticeable and abundant members of coastal planktonic communities, yet ironically, this high conspicuousness is not reflected in our overall understanding of their spatial distributions across large expanses of water. Here, we set out to elucidate the spatial (and temporal) patterns for five jellyfish species (Phylum Cnidaria, Orders Rhizostomeae and Semaeostomeae) across the Irish & Celtic Seas, an extensive shelf-sea area at Europe’s northwesterly margin encompassing several thousand square kilometers. Data were gathered using two independent methods: (1) surface-counts of jellyfish from ships of opportunity, and (2) regular shoreline surveys for stranding events over three consecutive years. Jellyfish species displayed distinct species-specific distributions, with an apparent segregation of some species. Furthermore, a different species composition was noticeable between the northern and southern parts of the study area. Most importantly, our data suggests that jellyfish distributions broadly reflect the major hydrographic regimes (and associated physical discontinuities) of the study area, with mixed water masses possibly acting as a trophic barrier or non-favourable environment for the successful growth and reproduction of jellyfish species.

Soil data to support broad scale land suitability assessment in the Gippsland Region

This report outlines an analysis of soil data requirements across the Gippsland region in order for local councils to carry out regional-scale land suitability analysis (LSA). As such, the primary objective of this study was to ascertain and source available relevant soil attribute data and information necessary to enable LSA.