Trends in the risk of mortality due to cardiovascular diseases in five Brazilian geographic regions from 1979 to 1996

OBJECTIVE - To analyze the trends in risk of death due to cardiovascular diseases in the northern, northeastern, southern, southeastern, and central western Brazilian geographic regions from 1979 to 1996. METHODS - Data on mortality due to cardiovascular, cardiac ischemic, and cerebrovascular diseases in 5 Brazilian geographic regions were obtained from the Ministry of Health. Population estimates for the time period from 1978 to 1996 in the 5 Brazilian geographic regions were calculated by interpolation with the Lagrange method, based on the census data from 1970, 1980, 1991, and the population count of 1996, for each age bracket and sex. Trends were analyzed with the multiple linear regression model. RESULTS - Cardiovascular diseases showed a declining trend in the southern, southeastern, and northern Brazilian geographic regions in all age brackets and for both sexes. In the northeastern and central western regions, an increasing trend in the risk of death due to cardiovascular diseases occurred, except for the age bracket from 30 to 39 years, which showed a slight reduction. This resulted from the trends of cardiac ischemic and cerebrovascular diseases. The analysis of the trend in the northeastern and northern regions was impaired by the great proportion of poorly defined causes of death. CONCLUSION - The risk of death due to cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and cardiac ischemic diseases decreased in the southern and southeastern regions, which are the most developed regions in the country, and increased in the least developed regions, mainly in the central western region.

Increase in mortality due to myocardial infarction in the Brazilian city of São Paulo during winter

OBJECTIVE: To study the seasonal variation in mortality due to myocardial infarction in the city of São Paulo. METHODS: We analyzed the database of PROAIM (Programa de Aprimoramento de Informações de Mortalidade) containing the registrations of the certificates of deaths due to myocardial infarction (International Classification of Diseases, 10th edition, classification I21) of the residents of the municipality of São Paulo during 12 months (from December 1996 to November 1997). The number of deaths was corrected for a standard period of 90 days and then it was divided by the corresponding population to obtain the event rate per 10 thousand inhabitants. The magnitude of the seasonal variation, which was defined by the difference of the relative risks between the seasons with higher and lower mortality, was estimated. RESULTS: A total of 5,615 deaths due to myocardial infarction were included in the study. Sixty-one per cent occurred in the male sex, and the mean age was 68 years. The mortality rate during winter was always higher and that during summer was lower than that during the other seasons (P<0.01), independent from age and sex. Seasonal variations in deaths due to myocardial infarction was 30% in the general group, being 23% in individuals who died younger than 75 years, and 44% in the older ones. CONCLUSION: A marked seasonal variation in mortality due to myocardial infarction was observed in the city of São Paulo, with a significant increase in its magnitude and age distribution during the winter, similar to those reported in regions of North America and Europe with temperate climates.

Pervasive decision support to predict football corners and goals by means of data mining

Football is considered nowadays one of the most popular sports. In the betting world, it has acquired an outstanding position, which moves millions of euros during the period of a single football match. The lack of profitability of football betting users has been stressed as a problem. This lack gave origin to this research proposal, which it is going to analyse the possibility of existing a way to support the users to increase their profits on their bets. Data mining models were induced with the purpose of supporting the gamblers to increase their profits in the medium/long term. Being conscience that the models can fail, the results achieved by four of the seven targets in the models are encouraging and suggest that the system can help to increase the profits. All defined targets have two possible classes to predict, for example, if there are more or less than 7.5 corners in a single game. The data mining models of the targets, more or less than 7.5 corners, 8.5 corners, 1.5 goals and 3.5 goals achieved the pre-defined thresholds. The models were implemented in a prototype, which it is a pervasive decision support system. This system was developed with the purpose to be an interface for any user, both for an expert user as to a user who has no knowledge in football games.

Electrocardiographic Alterations in Patients Hospitalized with Leptospirosis in the Brazilian City of Salvador

OBJECTIVE: To report the frequency and types of electrocardiographic alterations in patients with leptospirosis in the first 24 hours of hospitalization. METHODS: We analyzed the electrocardiograms of 157 patients admitted to the Hospital Couto Maia in the city of Salvador, in the State of Bahia, Brazil, from March 1998 to June 1999. The electrocardiograms were performed in the first 24 hours after hospital admission, independent of the clinical manifestations of the patients. RESULTS: The mean ± SD for patients' age was 35.5± 13.7 (median = 32) years, and jaundice was present in 95.5% of them. Alterations in the electrocardiogram were detected in 68.2% (107/157) of the patients (95% confidence interval = 60.6% - 75.1%). Atrial fibrillation was the most frequent arrhythmia, occurring in 10.8% (17/157) of the patients. Other frequent findings were alterations in ventricular repolarization detected in 38.9% (61/157) of patients and first-degree atrioventricular block in 10.2% (16/157). The patients with atrial fibrillation were older and had higher levels of creatinine and aminotransferases. CONCLUSION: In this sample, approximately 2/3 of the patients had electrocardiographic alterations after hospital admission. Of the major arrhythmias, atrial fibrillation was the most frequent, and the patients with this arrhythmia had evidence of more severe disease. The relation between the presence and type of electrocardiographic alteration and the prognosis of leptospirosis is yet to be assessed.

Prevalence of Risk Factors for Coronary Artery Disease in the Brazilian State of Rio Grande do Sul

OBJECTIVE - To determine the risk factors prevalence for coronary artery disease in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil and to identify their relation with the age bracket. METHODS - We carried out an observational, cross-sectional study of 1,066 adults older than 20 years in the Brazilian State of Rio Grande do Sul. We investigated the risk factors: familial antecedents, systemic arterial hypertension, high levels of cholesterol and glycemia, overweight/obesity, smoking and sedentary lifestyle. A standardized questionnaire completed at the patients' dwellings by health agents were used; the data were stored in an EPI-INFO software database. The results were expressed with a 95% confidence interval. RESULTS - The sample composition was of 51.8% females. The risk factors prevalences were: 1) sedentary lifestyle 71.3%; 2) familial antecedents: 57.3%; 3) overweight/obesity (body mass index >25): 54.7%; 4) smokers: 33.9%; 5) hypertension: 31.6% (considering >140/90mmHg) and 14.4% (considering >160/95mmHg); 6) high glycemia (>126 mg/dL): 7%; 7) high cholesterol >240 mg/dL): 5.6%. CONCLUSION - The prevalence of the major risk factors for coronary artery disease in the Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul could be determined in a study that integrated public and private institutions.

Trends of the Risk of Death due to Circulatory, Cerebrovascular, and Ischemic Heart Diseases in 11 Brazilian Capitals from 1980 to 1998

OBJECTIVE: To assess the trends of the risk of death due to circulatory (CD), cerebrovascular (CVD), and ischemic heart diseases (IHD) in 11 Brazilian capitals from 1980 to 1998. METHODS: Data on mortality due to CD, CVD and IHD were obtained from the Brazilian Health Ministry, and the population estimates were calculated by interpolation with the Lagrange method based on census data from 1980 and 1991 and the population count of 1996. The trends were analyzed with the multiple linear regression method. RESULTS: CD showed a trend towards a decrease in most capitals, except for Brasília, where a mild increase was observed. The cities of Porto Alegre, Curitiba, Rio de Janeiro, Cuiabá, Goiânia, Belém, and Manaus showed a decrease in the risk of death due to CVD and IHD, while the city of Brasília showed an increase in CVD and IHD. The city of São Paulo showed a mild increase in IHD for individuals of both sexes aged 30 to 39 years and for females aged 40 to 59 years. In the cities of Recife and Salvador, a reduction in CD was observed for all ages and both sexes. In the city of Recife, however, an increase in IHD was observed at younger ages (30 to 49 years), and this trend decreased until a mild reduction (-4%) was observed in males ³ 70 years. CONCLUSION: In general, a reduction in the risk of death due to CD and an increase in IHD were observed, mainly in the cities of Recife and Brasília.

Devices and Techniques for Blood Pressure Measurement and Criteria for Hypertension Adopted by Brazilian Physicians: Exploratory Study

OBJECTIVE: To determine technical procedures and criteria used by Brazilian physicians for measuring blood pressure and diagnosing hypertension. METHODS: A questionnaire with 5 questions about practices and behaviors regarding blood pressure measurement and the diagnosis of hypertension was sent to 25,606 physicians in all Brazilian regions through a mailing list. The responses were compared with the recommendations of a specific consensus and descriptive analysis. RESULTS: Of the 3,621 (14.1%) responses obtained, 57% were from the southeastern region of Brazil. The following items were reported: use of an aneroid device by 67.8%; use of a mercury column device by 14.6%; 11.9% of the participants never calibrated the devices; 35.7% calibrated the devices at intervals < 1 year; 85.8% measured blood pressure in 100% of the medical visits; 86.9% measured blood pressure more than once and on more than one occasion. For hypertension diagnosis, 55.7% considered the patient's age, and only 1/3 relied on consensus statements. CONCLUSION: Despite the adequate frequency of both practices, it was far from that expected, and some contradictions between the diagnostic criterion for hypertension and the number of blood pressure measurements were found. The results suggest that, to include the great majority of the medical professionals, disclosure of consensus statements and techniques for blood pressure measurement should go beyond the boundaries of medical events and specialized journals.

Prevalence of dyslipidemia and risk factors in Campos dos Goytacazes, in the Brazilian State of Rio de Janeiro

OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence of dyslipidemias in adults in the city of Campos dos Goytacazes, in the Brazilian state of Rio de Janeiro, and to identify its relation to risk factors. METHODS: Cross-sectional, population-based, observational study with sampling through conglomerates and stratified according to socioeconomic levels, sex, and age, with 1,039 individuals. Risk factors, familial history, blood pressure, anthropometric measurements, glucose, triglycerides and cholesterol were determined. RESULTS: The following prevalences were observed: of dyslipidemias 24.2%; of hypercholesterolemia, 4.2%; of elevated LDL-C, 3.5%; of low HDL-C, 18.3%; and of hypertriglyceridemia, 17.1%. The following mean levels were observed: cholesterol, 187.6± 33.7 mg/dL; LDL-C, 108.7±26.8 mg/dL; HDL-C, 48.5±7.7 mg/dL; and triglycerides, 150.1±109.8 mg/dL. The following variables showed a positive correlation with dyslipidemia: increased age (P<0.001), male sex (P<0.001), low familial income (P<0.001), familial history (P<0.01), overweight/obesity (P<0.001), waist measure (P<0.001), high blood pressure (P<0.001), and diabetes mellitus (P<0.001). The following variables had no influence on dyslipidemias: ethnicity, educational level, smoking habits, and sedentary lifestyle. CONCLUSION: The frequency of lipid changes in the population studied was high, suggesting that measures for the early diagnosis should be taken, in association with implementation of programs for primary and secondary prevention of atherosclerosis.

Assessment of cardiovascular risk factors in a rural community in the Brazilian state of Bahia

OBJECTIVE: To assess the frequency of cardiovascular risk factors in the rural community of Cavunge, in the Brazilian state of Bahia. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out with 160 individuals (age > 19 years) randomly drawn from those listed in the population census of the Cavunge Project. The following parameters were studied: arterial hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, obesity, smoking, waist-hip ratio (WHR), physical activity, and overall cardiovascular risk classified according to the Framingham score. The assessing parameters used were those established by the III Brazilian Consensus on Hypertension and the II Brazilian Consensus on Dyslipidemia. RESULTS: Of the randomly drawn individuals, 126 with a mean age of 46.6 + 19.7 years were included in the study, 43.7% of whom were males. The frequency of arterial hypertension was 36.5%; 20.4% of the individuals had cholesterol levels >240 mg/dL; 31.1% of the individuals had LDL-C levels > 130 mg/dL; 4% were diabetic; and 39.7% had a high-risk Framingham score. Abdominal obesity was observed in 41.3% of the population and in 57.7% of the females. High caloric-expenditure (HCE) physical activities were performed by 56.5% of the individuals. The HCE group had a greater frequency of normal triglyceride levels (63% vs 44%; P=0.05), no diabetes, and WHR tending towards normal (46% vs 27%, P=0.08) as compared with those in the low caloric-expenditure group. CONCLUSION: Cardiovascular risk factors, such as hypertension and hypercholesterolemia, are frequently found in rural communities. The greatest frequency of normal triglyceride levels and normal WHR in the HCE group reinforces the association between greater caloric expenditure and a better risk profile.

Utilização de terapêuticas comprovadamente úteis no tratamento da coronariopatia aguda: comparação entre diferentes regiões brasileiras. Análise do Registro Brasileiro de Síndromes Coronarianas Agudas (BRACE - Brazilian Registry on Acute Coronary Syndromes)

FUNDAMENTO: Pouco se sabe, em nosso meio, sobre diferenças regionais no tratamento da coronariopatia aguda. OBJETIVO: Analisar o comportamento regional relativamente à utilização de terapêuticas comprovadamente úteis na coronariopatia aguda. MÉTODOS: Foram selecionados aleatoriamente 71 hospitais, respeitando-se a proporcionalidade do país em relação à localização geográfica, entre outros critérios. Na população global, foi analisada regionalmente a utilização de AAS, clopidogrel, inibidor da ECA/bloqueador de AT1, betabloqueador e estatina, isoladamente e agrupados por escore individual que variou de 0 (nenhum medicamento utilizado) a 100 (todos utilizados). No infarto com supradesnivelamento de ST (IAMCSST) foram analisadas diferenças regionais sobre utilização de terapêuticas de recanalização (fibrinolíticos e angioplastia primária). RESULTADOS: No global da população, nas primeiras 24 horas de hospitalização, a média de escore na região Norte-Nordeste (70,5 ± 22,1) foi menor (p < 0,05) do que nas regiões Sudeste (77,7 ± 29,5), Centro-Oeste (82 ± 22,1) e Sul (82,4 ± 21). Por ocasião da alta, o escore da região Norte-Nordeste (61,4 ± 32,9) foi menor (p < 0,05) do que nas regiões Sudeste (69,2 ± 31,6), Centro-Oeste (65,3 ± 33,6), e Sul (73,7 ± 28,1); adicionalmente, o escore do Centro-Oeste foi menor (p < 0,05) do que o do Sul. No IAMCSST, o uso de terapêuticas de recanalização foi maior no Sudeste (75,4%, p = 0,001 em relação ao restante do país), e menor no Norte-Nordeste (52,5%, p < 0,001 em relação ao restante do país). CONCLUSÃO: O uso de terapêuticas comprovadamente úteis no tratamento da coronariopatia aguda está aquém do desejável no país, com importantes diferenças regionais.

Evaluation of Sexual Dimorphism in the Efficacy and Safety of Simvastatin/Atorvastatin Therapy in a Southern Brazilian Cohort

Background: Dyslipidemia is the primary risk factor for cardiovascular disease, and statins have been effective in controlling lipid levels. Sex differences in the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of statins contribute to interindividual variations in drug efficacy and toxicity. Objective: To evaluate the presence of sexual dimorphism in the efficacy and safety of simvastatin/atorvastatin treatment. Methods: Lipid levels of 495 patients (331 women and 164 men) were measured at baseline and after 6 ± 3 months of simvastatin/atorvastatin treatment to assess the efficacy and safety profiles of both drugs. Results: Women had higher baseline levels of total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) compared with men (p < 0.0001). After treatment, women exhibited a greater decrease in plasma TC and LDL-C levels compared with men. After adjustment for covariates, baseline levels of TC and LDL-C influenced more than 30% of the efficacy of lipid-lowering therapy (p < 0.001), regardless of sex. Myalgia [with or without changes in creatine phosphokinase (CPK) levels] occurred more frequently in women (25.9%; p = 0.002), whereas an increase in CPK and/or abnormal liver function was more frequent in in men (17.9%; p = 0.017). Conclusions: Our results show that baseline TC and LDL-C levels are the main predictors of simvastatin/atorvastatin therapy efficacy, regardless of sex. In addition, they suggest the presence of sexual dimorphism in the safety of simvastatin/atorvastatin. The effect of sex differences on receptors, transporter proteins, and gene expression pathways needs to be better evaluated and characterized to confirm these observations.

An Equation for the Prediction of Oxygen Consumption in a Brazilian Population

Background: The equations predicting maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max or peak) presently in use in cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) softwares in Brazil have not been adequately validated. These equations are very important for the diagnostic capacity of this method. Objective: Build and validate a Brazilian Equation (BE) for prediction of VO2peak in comparison to the equation cited by Jones (JE) and the Wasserman algorithm (WA). Methods: Treadmill evaluation was performed on 3119 individuals with CPET (breath by breath). The construction group (CG) of the equation consisted of 2495 healthy participants. The other 624 individuals were allocated to the external validation group (EVG). At the BE (derived from a multivariate regression model), age, gender, body mass index (BMI) and physical activity level were considered. The same equation was also tested in the EVG. Dispersion graphs and Bland-Altman analyses were built. Results: In the CG, the mean age was 42.6 years, 51.5% were male, the average BMI was 27.2, and the physical activity distribution level was: 51.3% sedentary, 44.4% active and 4.3% athletes. An optimal correlation between the BE and the CPET measured VO2peak was observed (0.807). On the other hand, difference came up between the average VO2peak expected by the JE and WA and the CPET measured VO2peak, as well as the one gotten from the BE (p = 0.001). Conclusion: BE presents VO2peak values close to those directly measured by CPET, while Jones and Wasserman differ significantly from the real VO2peak.

Cost-Effectiveness of High, Moderate and Low-Dose Statins in the Prevention of Vascular Events in the Brazilian Public Health System

Background:Statins have proven efficacy in the reduction of cardiovascular events, but the financial impact of its widespread use can be substantial.Objective:To conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of three statin dosing schemes in the Brazilian Unified National Health System (SUS) perspective.Methods:We developed a Markov model to evaluate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of low, intermediate and high intensity dose regimens in secondary and four primary scenarios (5%, 10%, 15% and 20% ten-year risk) of prevention of cardiovascular events. Regimens with expected low-density lipoprotein cholesterol reduction below 30% (e.g. simvastatin 10mg) were considered as low dose; between 30-40%, (atorvastatin 10mg, simvastatin 40mg), intermediate dose; and above 40% (atorvastatin 20-80mg, rosuvastatin 20mg), high-dose statins. Effectiveness data were obtained from a systematic review with 136,000 patients. National data were used to estimate utilities and costs (expressed as International Dollars - Int$). A willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold equal to the Brazilian gross domestic product per capita (circa Int$11,770) was applied.Results:Low dose was dominated by extension in the primary prevention scenarios. In the five scenarios, the ICER of intermediate dose was below Int$10,000 per QALY. The ICER of the high versus intermediate dose comparison was above Int$27,000 per QALY in all scenarios. In the cost-effectiveness acceptability curves, intermediate dose had a probability above 50% of being cost-effective with ICERs between Int$ 9,000-20,000 per QALY in all scenarios.Conclusions:Considering a reasonable WTP threshold, intermediate dose statin therapy is economically attractive, and should be a priority intervention in prevention of cardiovascular events in Brazil.

Blood Pressure Variation Throughout Pregnancy According to Early Gestational BMI: A Brazilian Cohort

Background: The maternal cardiovascular system undergoes progressive adaptations throughout pregnancy, causing blood pressure fluctuations. However, no consensus has been established on its normal variation in uncomplicated pregnancies. Objective: To describe the variation in systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) levels during pregnancy according to early pregnancy body mass index (BMI). Methods: SBP and DBP were measured during the first, second and third trimesters and at 30-45 days postpartum in a prospective cohort of 189 women aged 20-40 years. BMI (kg/m2) was measured up to the 13th gestational week and classified as normal-weight (<25.0) or excessive weight (≥25.0). Longitudinal linear mixed-effects models were used for statistical analysis. Results: A decrease in SBP and DBP was observed from the first to the second trimester (βSBP=-0.394; 95%CI: -0.600- -0.188 and βDBP=-0.617; 95%CI: -0.780- -0.454), as was an increase in SBP and DBP up to 30-45 postpartum days (βSBP=0.010; 95%CI: 0.006-0.014 and βDBP=0.015; 95%CI: 0.012-0.018). Women with excessive weight at early pregnancy showed higher mean SBP in all gestational trimesters, and higher mean DBP in the first and third trimesters. Excessive early pregnancy BMI was positively associated with prospective changes in SBP (βSBP=7.055; 95%CI: 4.499-9.610) and in DBP (βDBP=3.201; 95%CI: 1.136-5.266). Conclusion: SBP and DBP decreased from the first to the second trimester and then increased up to the postpartum period. Women with excessive early pregnancy BMI had higher SBP and DBP than their normal-weight counterparts throughout pregnancy, but not in the postpartum period.