A model for predicting the future incidence of coronary heart disease within percentiles of coronary heart disease risk

Background We present a method (The CHD Prevention Model) for modelling the incidence of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) within various CHD risk percentiles of an adult population. The model provides a relatively simple tool for lifetime risk prediction for subgroups within a population. It allows an estimation of the absolute primary CHD risk in different populations and will help identify subgroups of the adult population where primary CHD prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective. Methods The CHD risk distribution within the Australian population was modelled, based on the prevalence of CHD risk, individual estimates of integrated CHD risk, and current CHD mortality rates. Predicted incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction within CHD risk strata of the Australian population was determined. Results Approximately 25% of CHD deaths were predicted to occur amongst those in the top 10 percentiles of integrated CHD risk, regardless of age group or gender. It was found that while all causes survival did not differ markedly between percentiles of CHD risk before the ages of around 50-60, event-free survival began visibly to differ about 5 years earlier. Conclusions The CHD Prevention Model provides a means of predicting future CHD incidence amongst various strata of integrated CHD risk within an adult population. It has significant application both in individual risk counselling and in the identification of subgroups of the population where drug therapy to reduce CHD risk is most cost-effective. J Cardiovasc Risk 8:31-37 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Psychophysiological phenotypes of cognition: The P3 and SW components

As part of a large ongoing project, the Memory, Attention and Problem Solving (MAPS) study, we investigated whether genetic variability explains some of the variance in psychophysiological correlates of brain function, namely, the P3 and SW components of event-related potentials (ERPs). These ERP measures are minute time recordings of brain processes and, because they reflect fundamental cognitive processing, provide a unique window on the millisecondto- millisecond transactions that occur at the cognitive level and taking place in the human brain. The extent to which the variance in P3 and SW components is influenced by genetic factors was examined in 350 identical and nonidentical twin pairs aged 16 years. ERPs were recorded from 15 scalp electrodes during the performance of a visuospatial delayed response task that engages working memory. Multivariate genetic analyses using MX were used to estimate genetic and environmental influences on individual differences in brain functioning and to identify putative genetic factors common to the ERP measures and psychometric IQ. For each of the ERP measures, correlation among electrode sites was high, a spatial pattern was evident, and a large part of the genetic variation in the ERPs appeared to be mediated by a common genetic factor. Moderate within-pair concordance in MZ pairs was found for all ERP measures, with higher correlations found for P3 than SW, and the MZ twin pair correlations were approximately twice the DZ correlations, suggesting a genetic influence. Correlations between ERP measures and psychometric IQ were found and, although moderately low, were evident across electrode site. The analyses show that the ERP components, P3 and SW, are promising phenotypes of the neuroelectrical activity of the brain and have the potential to be used in linkage and association analysis in the search for QTLs influencing cognitive function.

A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

Estradiol-regulated expression of the immunophilins cyclophilin 40 and FKBP52 in MCF-7 breast cancer cells

The immunophilins, cyclophilin 40 (CyP40) and FKBP52, are associated with the unactivated estrogen receptor in mutually exclusive heterocomplexes and may differentially modulate receptor activity, We have recently shown that CyP40 and FKBP52 mRNA's are differentially elevated in breast carcinomas compared with normal breast tissue. Other studies suggest that such alterations ill the ratio of immunophilins might potentially influence steroid receptor function. Studies were therefore initiated to investigate the influence of estradiol on CyP40 and FKBP52 expression in MCF-7 breast cancer cells. Over a 24-h-treatment period with estradiol, CyP40 and FKBP52 mRNA expression was increased approximately five- and 14-fold, respectively. The corresponding protein levels were also elevated in comparison to controls. The antiestrogen, ICI 182,780, was an antagonist for CyP40 and FKBP52 mRNA induction. Cycloheximide treatment did not inhibit this increased immunophilin expression, suggesting that estradiol-mediated activation is independent off de novo protein synthesis. Treatment of MCF-7 cells with estradiol resulted in an increased half-life of both CyP40 and FKBP52 mRNA, as determined by actinomycin D studies. These results suggest that estradiol regulates CyP40 and FKBP52 mRNA expression through both transcriptional and posttranscriptional mechanisms. (C) 2001 Academic Press.

Tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand-induced apoptosis of human melanoma is regulated by Smac/DIABLO release from mitochondria

In previous studies we have shown that the sensitivity of melanoma cell lines to tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL)induced apoptosis was determined largely by the level of expression of death receptor TRAIL receptor 2 on the cells. However, approximately one-third of melanoma cell lines were resistant to TRAIL, despite expression of high levels of TRAIL receptor 2. The present studies show that these cell lines had similar levels of TRAIL-induced activated caspase-3 as the TRAIL-sensitive lines, but the activated caspase-3 did not degrade substrates downstream of caspase-3 [inhibitor of caspase-activated DNase and poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase]. This appeared to be due to inhibition of caspase-3 by X-linked inhibitor of apoptosis (XIAP) because XIAP was bound to activated caspase-3, and transfection of XIAP into TRAIL-sensitive cell lines resulted in similar inhibition of TRAIL-induced apoptosis. Conversely, reduction of XIAP levels by overexpression of Smac/ DIABLO in the TRAIL-resistant melanoma cells was associated with the appearance of catalytic activity by caspase-3 and increased TRAIL-induced apoptosis. TRAIL was shown to cause release of Smac/DIABLO from mitochondria, but this release was greater in TRAIL-sensitive cell lines than in TRAIL-resistant cell lines and was associated with downregulation of XIAP levels. Furthermore, inhibition of Smac/DIABLO release by overexpression of Bcl-2 inhibited down-regulation of XIAP levels. These results suggest that Smac/DIABLO release from mitochondria and its binding to XIAP are an alternative pathway by which TRAIL induces apoptosis of melanoma, and this pathway is dependent on the release of activated caspase-3 from inhibition by XIAP and possibly other inhibitor of apoptosis family members.

Determination of the stability constants of mercury(II) complexes of mixed donor macrobicyclic encapsulating ligands

The reactions of mercury(II) with the mixed donor encapsulating ligands 3,6,16-trithia-6,11,19-triazabicyclo[6.6.6]icosane (AMN(3)S(3)sar) and 1-amino-8-methyl-6,19-dithia-3,10,13,16-tetraazabicyclo[6.6.6]icosane (AMN(4)S(2)sar) have been studied. NMR ligand-ligand competition experiments with the ligands 1,4,8,11-tetraazaeyclotetradecane ([14]aneN(4)), 1-thia-4,7,10-triazacyclododecane ([12]aneN(3)S) and ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA) with AMN(3)S(3)sar and Hg(II) indicated that [14]aneN(4) would be an appropriate competing ligand for the, determination of the Hg(II) stability constant. Calculations indicated the ratio of concentrations of AMN3S3sar, [14]aneN(4) and Hg(II) required for the determination of the stability constant ranged from 1:1:1 to 1:5:1. Refinement of the titration curves yielded log(10)K[Hg(AMN(3)S(3)sar)](2+) = 17.7. A similar competition titration resulted in the determination of the stability constant for the AMN(4)S(2)sar system as log(10)K[Hg(AMN(4)S(2)sar)](2+) = 19.5. The observed binding constants for the mixed N/S donor systems and the hexaaza analogues sar (3,6,10,13,16,19-hexaazabicyclo [6.6.6]icosane) and diamsar (1,8-diamino-3,6,10,13,16,19 -hexazabicyclo [6.6.6] icosane (log(10)K-[Hg(diamsar)](2+) = 26.4; log(10)K[Hg(sar)](2+) = 28.1) differ by approximately ten orders of magnitude. The difference is ascribed not to a cryptate effect but to a mismatch in the Hg-N and Hg-S bond lengths in the N/S systems.

Redating the onset of burning at Lynch's Crater (North Queensland): implications for human settlement in Australia

Lynch's Crater preserves a continuous, high-resolution record of environmental changes in north Queensland. This record suggests a marked increase in burning that appears to be independent of any known major climatic boundaries. This increase is accompanied, or closely followed, by the virtually complete replacement of rainforest by sclerophyll vegetation. The absence of any major climatic shift associated with this increase in fire frequency therefore has been interpreted as a result of early human impact in the area. The age for this increase in burning, on the basis of conventional radiocarbon dating, was previously thought to be approximately 38000 C-14 yr BP, supporting the traditional model for human arrival in Australia at 40 000 C-14 yr BP Here we have applied a more rigorous pre-treatment and graphitisation procedure for radiocarbon dating samples from the Lynch's Crater sequence. These new dates suggest that the increase in fire frequency occurred at 45 000 C-14 yr BP, supporting the alternative view that human occupation of Australia occurred by at least 45 000-55 000 cal. yr BP. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Hair morphine concentrations of fatal heroin overdose cases and living heroin users

Aims To compare heroin and other opiate use of heroin overdose fatalities, current street heroin users and drug-free therapeutic community clients. Design Hair morphine concentrations that assess heroin use and other opiate use in the 2 months preceding interview or death were compared between heroin overdose fatalities diagnosed by forensic pathologists (fOD) (n = 42), current street heroin users (CU) (n = 100) and presumably abstinent heroin users in a drug-free therapeutic community (TC) (n = 50). Setting Sydney, Australia. Findings The mean age and gender breakdown of the three samples were 32.3 years, 83% male (FOD), 28.7 years, 58% male (CU) and 28.6 years, 60% male (TC). The median blood morphine concentration among the FOD cases was 0.35 mg/l, and 82% also had other drugs detected. There were large differences between the three groups in hair morphine concentrations, with the CU group (2.10 ng/mg) having concentration approximately four times that of the FOD group (0.53 ng/mg), which in turn had a concentration approximately six times that of the TC group (0.09 ng/mg). There were no significant differences between males and females in hair concentrations within any of the groups. Hair morphine concentrations were correlated significantly with blood morphine concentrations among FOD cases (r = 0.54), and self-reported heroin use among living participants (r = 0.57). Conclusions The results indicate that fatal cases had a lower degree of chronic opiate intake than the active street users, but they were not abstinent during this period.

Surface reflectance properties of Antarctic moss and their relationship to plant species, pigment composition and photosynthetic function

In this study the variations in surface reflectance properties and pigment concentrations of Antarctic moss over species, sites, microtopography and with water content were investigated. It was found that species had significantly different surface reflectance properties, particularly in the region of the red edge (approximately 700 nm), but this did not correlate strongly with pigment concentrations. Surface reflectance of moss also varied in the visible region and in the characteristics of the red edge over different sites. Reflectance parameters, such as the photochemical reflectance index (PRI) and cold hard band were useful discriminators of site, microtopographic position and water content. The PRI was correlated both with the concentrations of active xanthophyll-cycle pigments and the photosynthetic light use efficiency, F-v/F-m, measured using chlorophyll fluorescence. Water content of moss strongly influenced the amplitude and position of the red-edge as well as the PRI, and may be responsible for observed differences in reflectance properties for different species and sites. All moss showed sustained high levels of photoprotective xanthophyll pigments, especially at exposed sites, indicating moss is experiencing continual high levels of photochemical stress.