994 resultados para Bayesian diagnostic measure
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BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study is to validate the Pulvers silhouette showcard as a measure of weight status in a population in the African region. This tool is particularly beneficial when scarce resources do not allow for direct anthropometric measurements due to limited survey time or lack of measurement technology in face-to-face general-purpose surveys or in mailed, online, or mobile device-based surveys. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted in the Republic of Seychelles with a sample of 1240 adults. We compared self-reported body sizes measured by Pulvers' silhouette showcards to four measurements of body size and adiposity: body mass index (BMI), body fat percent measured, waist circumference, and waist to height ratio. The accuracy of silhouettes as an obesity indicator was examined using sex-specific receiver operator curve (ROC) analysis and the reliability of this tool to detect socioeconomic gradients in obesity was compared to BMI-based measurements. RESULTS: Our study supports silhouette body size showcards as a valid and reliable survey tool to measure self-reported body size and adiposity in an African population. The mean correlation coefficients of self-reported silhouettes with measured BMI were 0.80 in men and 0.81 in women (P < 0.001). The silhouette showcards also showed high accuracy for detecting obesity as per a BMI ≥ 30 (Area under curve, AUC: 0.91/0.89, SE: 0.01), which was comparable to other measured adiposity indicators: fat percent (AUC: 0.94/0.94, SE: 0.01), waist circumference (AUC: 0.95/0.94, SE: 0.01), and waist to height ratio (AUC: 0.95/0.94, SE: 0.01) amongst men and women, respectively. The use of silhouettes in detecting obesity differences among different socioeconomic groups resulted in similar magnitude, direction, and significance of association between obesity and socioeconomic status as when using measured BMI. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the validity and reliability of silhouettes as a survey tool for measuring obesity in a population in the African region. The ease of use and cost-effectiveness of this tool makes it an attractive alternative to measured BMI in the design of non-face-to-face online- or mobile device-based surveys as well as in-person general-purpose surveys of obesity in social sciences, where limited resources do not allow for direct anthropometric measurements.
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In the past few decades, the rise of criminal, civil and asylum cases involving young people lacking valid identification documents has generated an increase in the demand of age estimation. The chronological age or the probability that an individual is older or younger than a given age threshold are generally estimated by means of some statistical methods based on observations performed on specific physical attributes. Among these statistical methods, those developed in the Bayesian framework allow users to provide coherent and transparent assignments which fulfill forensic and medico-legal purposes. The application of the Bayesian approach is facilitated by using probabilistic graphical tools, such as Bayesian networks. The aim of this work is to test the performances of the Bayesian network for age estimation recently presented in scientific literature in classifying individuals as older or younger than 18 years of age. For these exploratory analyses, a sample related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis available in scientific literature was used. Results obtained in the classification are promising: in the criminal context, the Bayesian network achieved, on the average, a rate of correct classifications of approximatively 97%, whilst in the civil context, the rate is, on the average, close to the 88%. These results encourage the continuation of the development and the testing of the method in order to support its practical application in casework.
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Bandura (1986) developed the concept of moral disengagement to explain how individuals can engage in detrimental behavior while experiencing low levels of negative feelings such as guilt-feelings. Most of the research conducted on moral disengagement investigated this concept as a global concept (e.g., Bandura, Barbaranelli, Caprara, & Pastorelli, 1996; Moore, Detert, Klebe Treviño, Baker, & Mayer, 2012) while Bandura (1986, 1990) initially developed eight distinct mechanisms of moral disengagement grouped into four categories representing the various means through which moral disengagement can operate. In our work, we propose to develop measures of this concept based on its categories, namely rightness of actions, rejection of personal responsibility, distortion of negative consequences, and negative perception of the victims, and which is not specific a particular area of research. Through our measures, we aim at better understanding the cognitive process leading individuals to behave unethically by investigating which category plays a role in explaining unethical behavior depending on the situations in which individuals are. To this purpose, we conducted five studies to develop the measures and to test its predictive validity. Particularly, we assessed the ability of the newly developed measures to predict two types of unethical behaviors, i.e. discriminatory behavior and cheating behavior. Confirmatory Factor analyses demonstrated a good fit of the model and findings generally supported our predictions.
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Despite moderate improvements in outcome of glioblastoma after first-line treatment with chemoradiation recent clinical trials failed to improve the prognosis of recurrent glioblastoma. In the absence of a standard of care we aimed to investigate institutional treatment strategies to identify similarities and differences in the pattern of care for recurrent glioblastoma. We investigated re-treatment criteria and therapeutic pathways for recurrent glioblastoma of eight neuro-oncology centres in Switzerland having an established multidisciplinary tumour-board conference. Decision algorithms, differences and consensus were analysed using the objective consensus methodology. A total of 16 different treatment recommendations were identified based on combinations of eight different decision criteria. The set of criteria implemented as well as the set of treatments offered was different in each centre. For specific situations, up to 6 different treatment recommendations were provided by the eight centres. The only wide-range consensus identified was to offer best supportive care to unfit patients. A majority recommendation was identified for non-operable large early recurrence with unmethylated MGMT promoter status in the fit patients: here bevacizumab was offered. In fit patients with late recurrent non-operable MGMT promoter methylated glioblastoma temozolomide was recommended by most. No other majority recommendations were present. In the absence of strong evidence we identified few consensus recommendations in the treatment of recurrent glioblastoma. This contrasts the limited availability of single drugs and treatment modalities. Clinical situations of greatest heterogeneity may be suitable to be addressed in clinical trials and second opinion referrals are likely to yield diverging recommendations.
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L'infection par le virus de l'hépatite C (HCV) représente une des causes les plus fréquentes d'hépatite chronique, de cirrhose et de carcinome hépatocellulaire au niveau mondial. D'énormes progrès ont été réalisés durant ces 25 dernières années depuis la découverte du HCV, notamment dans la compréhension de la virologie moléculaire, de la pathogenèse et de l'histoire naturelle ainsi que dans la prévention, le diagnostic et le traitement de l'hépatite C. Ces avancées seront résumées dans cet article et discutées à la lumière de nouveaux défis. Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection represents a major cause of chronic hepatitis, liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma worldwide. Great progress in the understanding of the molecular virology, pathogenesis and natural course as well as the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of hepatitis C have been made in over the last 25 years since the discovery of HCV. Here, we review recent advances and discuss them in the light of new challenges.
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Introduction: Evidence suggests that citrullinated fibrin(ogen) may be a potential in vivo target of anticitrullinated protein/peptide antibodies (ACPA) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We compared the diagnostic yield of three enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) tests by using chimeric fibrin/filaggrin citrullinated synthetic peptides (CFFCP1, CFFCP2, CFFCP3) with a commercial CCP2-based test in RA and analyzed their prognostic values in early RA. Methods: Samples from 307 blood donors and patients with RA (322), psoriatic arthritis (133), systemic lupus erythematosus (119), and hepatitis C infection (84) were assayed by using CFFCP- and CCP2-based tests. Autoantibodies also were analyzed at baseline and during a 2-year follow-up in 98 early RA patients to determine their prognostic value. Results: With cutoffs giving 98% specificity for RA versus blood donors, the sensitivity was 72.1% for CFFCP1, 78.0% for CFFCP2, 71.4% for CFFCP3, and 73.9% for CCP2, with positive predictive values greater than 97% in all cases. CFFCP sensitivity in RA increased to 80.4% without losing specificity when positivity was considered as any positive anti-CFFCP status. Specificity of the three CFFCP tests versus other rheumatic populations was high (> 90%) and similar to those for the CCP2. In early RA, CFFCP1 best identified patients with a poor radiographic outcome. Radiographic progression was faster in the small subgroup of CCP2-negative and CFFCP1-positive patients than in those negative for both autoantibodies. CFFCP antibodies decreased after 1 year, but without any correlation with changes in disease activity. Conclusions: CFFCP-based assays are highly sensitive and specific for RA. Early RA patients with anti-CFFCP1 antibodies, including CCP2-negative patients, show greater radiographic progression.
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A photonic system has been developed that enables sensitive quantitative determination of reactive oxygen species (ROS) - mainly hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) - in aerosol samples such as airborne nanoparticles and exhaled air from patients. The detection principle relies on the amplification of the absorbance under multiple scattering conditions due to optical path lengthening [1] and [2]. In this study, the presence of cellulose membrane that acts as random medium into the glass optical cell considerably improved the sensitivity of the detection based on colorimetric FOX assay (FeII/orange xylenol). Despite the loss of assay volume (cellulose occupies 75% of cell volume) the limit of detection is enhanced by one order of magnitude reaching the value of 9 nM (H2O2 equivalents). Spectral analysis is performed automatically with a periodicity of 5 to 15 s, giving rise to real-time ROS measurements. Moreover, the elution of air sample into the collection chamber via a micro-diffuser (impinger) enables quantitative determination of ROS contained in or generated from airborne samples. As proof-of-concept the photonic ROS detection system was used in the determination of both ROS generated from traffic pollution and ROS contained in the exhaled breath as lung inflammation biomarkers.
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Case: A 11 yo girl with Marfan syndrome was referred to cardiac MR (CMR) to measure the size of her thoracic aorta. She had a typical phenotype with arachnodactyly, abnormally long arms, and was tall and slim (156 cm, 28 kg, body mass index 11,5 kg/m2). She complained of no symptoms. Cardiac auscultation revealed a prominent mid-systolic click and an end-systolic murmur at the apex. A recent echocardiogram showed a moderately dilated left ventricle with normal function and a mitral valve prolapse with moderate mitral valve regurgitation. CMR showed a dilatation of the aortic root (38 mm, Z-score 8.9) and a severe prolapse of the mitral valve with regurgitation. The ventricular cavity was moderately dilated (116 ml/m2) and its contraction was hyperdynamic (stroke volume (SV): 97 ml; LVEF 72%, with the LV volumes measured by modified Simpson method from the apex to the mitral annulus). In this patient however, the mitral prolapse was characterized by a severe backward movement of the valve toward the left atrium (LA) in systole and the dyskinetic movement of the atrioventricular plane caused a ventricularisation of a part of the LA in systole (Figure). This resulted in a significant reduction of LVEF: more than ¼ of the apparent SV was displaced backwards into the ventricularized LA volume, reducing the effective LVEF to 51% (effective SV 69ml). Moreover, by flow measurement, the SV across the ascending aorta was 30 ml (cardiac index 2.0 l/min/m2) allowing the calculation of a regurgitant fraction across the mitral valve of 56%, which was diagnostic for a severe mitral valve insufficiency. Conclusion: This case illustrates the phenomenon of a ventricularisation of the LA where the severe prolapse gives the illusion of a higher attachement of the mitral leaflets within the atrial wall. Besides the severe mitral regurgitation, this paradoxical backwards movement of the valve causes an intraventricular unloading during systole reducing the apparent LVEF of 72% to an effective LVEF of only 51%. In addition, forward flow fraction is only 22% after accounting for the regurgitant volume, as well. This combined involvement of the mitral valve could explain the discrepancy between a low output state and an apparently hyperdynamic LV contraction. Due to its ability to precisely measure flows and volumes, CMR is particularly suited to detect this phenomenon and to quantify its impact on the LV pump function.
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Eosinophilic oesophagitis (EoE) has first been described a little over 20 years ago. EoE has been defined by a panel of international experts as a "chronic, immune/antigen-mediated, oesophageal disease, characterized clinically by symptoms related to oesophageal dysfunction and histologically by eosinophil-predominant inflammation". A value of ≥ 15 eosinophils has been defined as histologic diagnostic cutoff. Other conditions associated with oesophageal eosinophilia, such as gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GERD), PPI-responsive oesophageal eosinophilia, or Crohn's disease should be excluded before EoE can be diagnosed. This review highlights the latest insights regarding the diagnosis and differential diagnosis of EoE.
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Our inability to adequately treat many patients with refractory epilepsy caused by focal cortical dysplasia (FCD), surgical inaccessibility and failures are significant clinical drawbacks. The targeting of physiologic features of epileptogenesis in FCD and colocalizing functionality has enhanced completeness of surgical resection, the main determinant of outcome. Electroencephalography (EEG)-functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and magnetoencephalography are helpful in guiding electrode implantation and surgical treatment, and high-frequency oscillations help defining the extent of the epileptogenic dysplasia. Ultra high-field MRI has a role in understanding the laminar organization of the cortex, and fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) is highly sensitive for detecting FCD in MRI-negative cases. Multimodal imaging is clinically valuable, either by improving the rate of postoperative seizure freedom or by reducing postoperative deficits. However, there is no level 1 evidence that it improves outcomes. Proof for a specific effect of antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) in FCD is lacking. Pathogenic mutations recently described in mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) genes in FCD have yielded important insights into novel treatment options with mTOR inhibitors, which might represent an example of personalized treatment of epilepsy based on the known mechanisms of disease. The ketogenic diet (KD) has been demonstrated to be particularly effective in children with epilepsy caused by structural abnormalities, especially FCD. It attenuates epigenetic chromatin modifications, a master regulator for gene expression and functional adaptation of the cell, thereby modifying disease progression. This could imply lasting benefit of dietary manipulation. Neurostimulation techniques have produced variable clinical outcomes in FCD. In widespread dysplasias, vagus nerve stimulation (VNS) has achieved responder rates >50%; however, the efficacy of noninvasive cranial nerve stimulation modalities such as transcutaneous VNS (tVNS) and noninvasive (nVNS) requires further study. Although review of current strategies underscores the serious shortcomings of treatment-resistant cases, initial evidence from novel approaches suggests that future success is possible.
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BACKGROUND: Previous observations found a high prevalence of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) in the hemodialysis population, but the best diagnostic approach remains undefined. We assessed OSA prevalence and performance of available screening tools to propose a specific diagnostic algorithm. METHODS: 104 patients from 6 Swiss hemodialysis centers underwent polygraphy and completed 3 OSA screening scores: STOP-BANG, Berlin's Questionnaire, and Adjusted Neck Circumference. The OSA predictors were identified on a derivation population and used to develop the diagnostic algorithm, which was validated on an independent population. RESULTS: We found 56% OSA prevalence (AHI ≥ 15/h), which was largely underdiagnosed. Screening scores showed poor performance for OSA screening (ROC areas 0.538 [SE 0.093] to 0.655 [SE 0.083]). Age, neck circumference, and time on renal replacement therapy were the best predictors of OSA and were used to develop a screening algorithm, with higher discriminatory performance than classical screening tools (ROC area 0.831 [0.066]). CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirms the high OSA prevalence and highlights the low diagnosis rate of this treatable cardiovascular risk factor in the hemodialysis population. Considering the poor performance of OSA screening tools, we propose and validate a specific algorithm to identify hemodialysis patients at risk for OSA for whom further sleep investigations should be considered.
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The aim of this study is to define a new statistic, PVL, based on the relative distance between the likelihood associated with the simulation replications and the likelihood of the conceptual model. Our results coming from several simulation experiments of a clinical trial show that the PVL statistic range can be a good measure of stability to establish when a computational model verifies the underlying conceptual model. PVL improves also the analysis of simulation replications because only one statistic is associated with all the simulation replications. As well it presents several verification scenarios, obtained by altering the simulation model, that show the usefulness of PVL. Further simulation experiments suggest that a 0 to 20 % range may define adequate limits for the verification problem, if considered from the viewpoint of an equivalence test.
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Communication is an essential element of good medical practice also in pathology. In contrast to technical or diagnostic skills, communication skills are not easy to define, teach, or assess. Rules almost do not exist. In this paper, which has a rather personal character and cannot be taken as a set of guidelines, important aspects of communication in pathology are explored. This includes what should be communicated to the pathologist on the pathology request form, communication between pathologists during internal (interpathologist) consultation, communication around frozen section diagnoses, modalities of communication of a final diagnosis, with whom and how critical and unexpected findings should be communicated, (in-)adequate routes of communication for pathology diagnoses, who will (or might) receive pathology reports, and what should be communicated and how in case of an error or a technical problem. An earlier more formal description of what the responsibilities are of a pathologist as communicator and as collaborator in a medical team is added in separate tables. The intention of the paper is to stimulate reflection and discussion rather than to formulate strict rules.
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The interpretation of complex DNA profiles is facilitated by a Bayesian approach. This approach requires the development of a pair of propositions: one aligned to the prosecution case and one to the defense case. This note explores the issue of proposition setting in an adversarial environment by a series of examples. A set of guidelines generalize how to formulate propositions when there is a single person of interest and when there are multiple individuals of interest. Additional explanations cover how to handle multiple defense propositions, relatives, and the transition from subsource level to activity level propositions. The propositions depend on case information and the allegations of each of the parties. The prosecution proposition is usually known. The authors suggest that a sensible proposition is selected for the defense that is consistent with their stance, if available, and consistent with a realistic defense if their position is not known.