Modelling Saharan dust transport into the Mediterranean basin with CMAQ

The need for a better quantification of the influence of Saharan dust transport processes on the air quality modelling in the Mediterranean basin led to the formulation of a dust emission module (DEM) integrated into the Air Quality Risk Assessment System for the Iberian Peninsula (SERCA). This paper is focused on the formulation of DEM based on the GOCART aerosol model, along with its integration and execution into the air quality model. It also addresses the testing of the module and its evaluation by contrasting results against satellite products such as MODIS and CALIPSO and ground-level observations of aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and concentration levels of PM10 for different periods in July 2007. DEM was found capable of reproducing the spatial (horizontal and vertical) and temporal profiles of Saharan dust outbreaks into the Mediterranean basin and the Atlantic coast of Africa. Moreover, it was observed that its combination with CMAQ increased the correlation degree between observed and modelled PM10 concentrations at the selected monitoring locations. DEM also enhanced CMAQ capabilities to reproduce observed AOT, although significant underestimations remain. The implementation of CMAQ + DEM succeeded in capturing Saharan dust transport into the Iberian Peninsula, with contributions up to 25 and 14 μg m−3 in 1 h and 24 h average PM10 respectively. The general improvement of total PM10 predictions in Spain are however moderate. The analysis of model performance for the main PM components points out that remaining PM10 underestimation is due to dust local sources missing in the inventories and misrepresentation of organic aerosol processes, which constitutes the main areas for future improvement of CMAQ capabilities to simulate particulate matter within SERCA.

Low vertical transfer rates of carbon inferred from radiocarbon analysis in an Amazon Podzol

Hydromorphic Podzol soils in the Amazon Basin generally support low-stature forests with some of the lowest amounts of aboveground net primary production (NPP) in the region. However, they can also exhibit large values of belowground NPP that can contribute significantly to the total annual inputs of organic matter into the soil. These hydromorphic Podzol soils also exhibit a horizon rich in organic matter at around 1?2m depth, presumably as a result of eluviation of dissolved organic matter and sesquioxides of Fe and Al. Therefore, it is likely that these ecosystems store large quantities of carbon by (1) large amounts of C inputs to soils dominated by their high levels of fine-root production, (2) stabilization of organic matter in an illuviation horizon due to significant vertical transfers of C. To assess these ideas we studied soil carbon dynamics using radiocarbon in two adjacent Amazon forests growing on contrasting soils: a hydromorphic Podzol and a well-drained Alisol supporting a high-stature terra firme forest. Our measurements showed similar concentrations of C and radiocarbon in the litter layer and the first 5 cm of the mineral soil for both sites. This result is consistent with the idea that the hydromorphic Podzol soil has similar soil C storage and cycling rates compared to the well-drained Alisol that supports a more opulent vegetation. However, we found important differences in carbon dynamics and transfers along the vertical profile. At both soils, we found similar radiocarbon concentrations in the subsoil, but the carbon released after incubating soil samples presented radiocarbon concentrations of recent origin in the Alisol, but not in the Podzol. There were no indications of incorporation of C fixed after 1950 in the illuvial horizon of the Podzol. With the aid of a simulation model, we predicted that only a minor fraction (1.7 %) of the labile carbon decomposed in the topsoil is transferred to the subsoil of the Podzol, while this proportional transfer is about 30% in the Alisol. Furthermore, our estimates were 8 times lower than previous estimations of vertical C transfers in Amazon Podzols, and question the validity of these previous estimations for all Podzols within the Amazon Basin. Our results also challenge our previous ideas about the genesis of these particular soils and suggest that either they are not true Podzols or the podzolization processes had already stopped.

Analyzing adaptation to climate change in the water and the agricultural sectors in the Spanish Guadiana basin.

1. Introduction: setting and problem definition 2. The Adaptation Pathway –2.1 Stage 1: appraising risks and opportunities •Step 1: Impact analysis •Step 2: Policy analysis •Step 3: Socio-institutional analysis –2.2 Stage 2: appraising and choosing adaptation opt ions •Step 4: identifying and prioritizing adaptation o ptions 3. Conclusions

Change of extreme rainfall indexes at Ebro River Basin

The purpose of this work is to provide a description of the heavy rainfall phenomenon on statistical tools from a Spanish region. We want to quantify the effect of the climate change to verify the rapidity of its evolution across the variation of the probability distributions. Our conclusions have special interest for the agrarian insurances, which may make estimates of costs more realistically. In this work, the analysis mainly focuses on: The distribution of consecutive days without rain for each gauge stations and season. We estimate density Kernel functions and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) for a network of station from the Ebro River basin until a threshold value u. We can establish a relation between distributional parameters and regional characteristics. Moreover we analyze especially the tail of the probability distribution. These tails are governed by law of power means that the number of events n can be expressed as the power of another quantity x : n(x) = x? . ? can be estimated as the slope of log-log plot the number of events and the size. The most convenient way to analyze n(x) is using the empirical probability distribution. Pr(X mayor que x) ? x-?. The distribution of rainfall over percentile of order 0.95 from wet days at the seasonal scale and in a yearly scale with the same treatment of tails than in the previous section.

Modelización de servicios ecosistémicos en una cuenca hidrológica del área mediterránea = Modeling ecosystem services in a mediterranean area river basin

La modelización es un proceso por el que se obtienen modelos de los procesos del ´mundo real´ mediante la utilización de simplificaciones. Sin embargo, las estimaciones obtenidas con el modelo llevan implícitas incertidumbre que se debe evaluar. Mediante un análisis de sensibilidad se puede mejorar la confianza en los resultados, sin embargo, este paso a veces no se realiza debido básicamente al trabajo que lleva consigo este tipo de análisis. Además, al crear un modelo, hay que mantener un equilibrio entre la obtención de resultados lo más exactos posible mediante un modelo lo más sencillo posible. Por ello, una vez creado un modelo, es imprescindible comprobar si es necesario o no incluir más procesos que en un principio no se habían incluido. Los servicios ecosistémicos son los procesos mediante los cuales los ecosistemas mantienen y satisfacen el bienestar humano. La importancia que los servicios ecosistémicos y sus beneficios asociados tienen, junto con la necesidad de realizar una buena gestión de los mismos, han estimulado la aparición de modelos y herramientas para cuantificarlos. InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradoffs) es una de estas herramientas específicas para calcular servicios eco-sistémicos, desarrollada por Natural Capital Project (Universidad de Stanford, EEUU). Como resultado del creciente interés en calcular los servicios eco-sistémicos, se prevé un incremento en la aplicación del InVEST. La investigación desarrollada en esta Tesis pretende ayudar en esas otras importantes fases necesarias después de la creación de un modelo, abarcando los dos siguientes trabajos. El primero es la aplicación de un análisis de sensibilidad al modelo en una cuenca concreta mediante la metodología más adecuada. El segundo es relativo a los procesos dentro de la corriente fluvial que actualmente no se incluyen en el modelo mediante la creación y aplicación de una metodología que estudiara el papel que juegan estos procesos en el modelo InVEST de retención de nutrientes en el área de estudio. Los resultados de esta Tesis contribuirán a comprender la incertidumbre involucrada en el proceso de modelado. También pondrá de manifiesto la necesidad de comprobar el comportamiento de un modelo antes de utilizarlo y en el momento de interpretar los resultados obtenidos. El trabajo en esta Tesis contribuirá a mejorar la plataforma InVEST, que es una herramienta importante en el ámbito de los servicios de los ecosistemas. Dicho trabajo beneficiará a los futuros usuarios de la herramienta, ya sean investigadores (en investigaciones futuras), o técnicos (en futuros trabajos de toma de decisiones o gestión ecosistemas). ABSTRACT Modeling is the process to idealize real-world situations through simplifications in order to obtain a model. However, model estimations lead to uncertainties that have to be evaluated formally. The role of the sensitivity analysis (SA) is to assign model output uncertainty based on the inputs and can increase confidence in model, however, it is often omitted in modelling, usually as a result of the growing effort it involves. In addition, the balance between accuracy and simplicity is not easy to assess. For this reason, when a model is developed, it is necessary to test it in order to understand its behavior and to include, if necessary, more complexity to get a better response. Ecosystem services are the conditions and processes through which natural ecosystems, and their constituent species, sustain and fulfill human life. The relevance of ecosystem services and the need to better manage them and their associated benefits have stimulated the emergence of models and tools to measure them. InVEST, Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradoffs, is one of these ecosystem services-specific tools developed by the Natural Capital Project (Stanford University, USA). As a result of the growing interest in measuring ecosystem services, the use of InVEST is anticipated to grow exponentially in the coming years. However, apart from model development, making a model involves other crucial stages such as its evaluation and application in order to validate estimations. The work developed in this thesis tries to help in this relevant and imperative phase of the modeling process, and does so in two different ways. The first one is to conduct a sensitivity analysis of the model, which consists in choosing and applying a methodology in an area and analyzing the results obtained. The second is related to the in-stream processes that are not modeled in the current model, and consists in creating and applying a methodology for testing the streams role in the InVEST nutrient retention model in a case study, analyzing the results obtained. The results of this Thesis will contribute to the understanding of the uncertainties involved in the modeling process. It will also illustrate the need to check the behavior of every model developed before putting them in production and illustrate the importance of understanding their behavior in terms of correctly interpreting the results obtained in light of uncertainty. The work in this thesis will contribute to improve the InVEST platform, which is an important tool in the field of ecosystem services. Such work will benefit future users, whether they are researchers (in their future research), or technicians (in their future work in ecosystem conservation or management decisions).

How can irrigated agriculture adapt to climate change? Insights from the Guadiana Basin in Spain

Climate change is already affecting many natural systems and human environments worldwide, like the semiarid Guadiana Basin in Spain. This paper illustrates a systematic analysis of climate change adaptation in the Guadiana irrigation farming region. The study applies a solution-oriented diagnostic framework structured along a series of sequential analytical steps. An initial stage integrates economic and hydrologic modeling to evaluate the effects of climate change on the agriculture and water sectors. Next, adaptation measures are identified and prioritized through a stakeholder-based multi-criteria analysis. Finally, a social network analysis identifies key actors and their relationships in climate change adaptation. The study shows that under a severe climate change scenario, water availability could be substantially decreased and drought occurrence will augment. In consequence, farmers will adapt their crops to a lesser amount of water and income gains will diminish, particularly for smallholder farms. Among the various adaptation measures considered, those related to private farming (new crop varieties and modern irrigation technologies) are ranked highest, whereas public-funded hard measures (reservoirs) are lowest and public soft measures (insurance) are ranked middle. In addition, stakeholders highlighted that the most relevant criteria for selecting adaptation plans are environmental protection, financial feasibility and employment creation. Nonetheless, the social network analysis evidenced the need to strengthen the links among the different stakeholder groups to facilitate the implementation of adaptation processes. In sum, the diagnostic framework applied in this research can be considered a valuable tool for guiding and supporting decision making in climate change adaptation and communicating scientific results.

Modelización de servicios ecosistémicos en una cuenca hidrológica del área mediterránea = Modeling ecosystem services in a mediterranean area river basin

La modelización es un proceso por el que se obtienen modelos de los procesos del ´mundo real´ mediante la utilización de simplificaciones. Sin embargo, las estimaciones obtenidas con el modelo llevan implícitas incertidumbre que se debe evaluar. Mediante un análisis de sensibilidad se puede mejorar la confianza en los resultados, sin embargo, este paso a veces no se realiza debido básicamente al trabajo que lleva consigo este tipo de análisis. Además, al crear un modelo, hay que mantener un equilibrio entre la obtención de resultados lo más exactos posible mediante un modelo lo más sencillo posible. Por ello, una vez creado un modelo, es imprescindible comprobar si es necesario o no incluir más procesos que en un principio no se habían incluido. Los servicios ecosistémicos son los procesos mediante los cuales los ecosistemas mantienen y satisfacen el bienestar humano. La importancia que los servicios ecosistémicos y sus beneficios asociados tienen, junto con la necesidad de realizar una buena gestión de los mismos, han estimulado la aparición de modelos y herramientas para cuantificarlos. InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradoffs) es una de estas herramientas específicas para calcular servicios eco-sistémicos, desarrollada por Natural Capital Project (Universidad de Stanford, EEUU). Como resultado del creciente interés en calcular los servicios eco-sistémicos, se prevé un incremento en la aplicación del InVEST. La investigación desarrollada en esta Tesis pretende ayudar en esas otras importantes fases necesarias después de la creación de un modelo, abarcando los dos siguientes trabajos. El primero es la aplicación de un análisis de sensibilidad al modelo en una cuenca concreta mediante la metodología más adecuada. El segundo es relativo a los procesos dentro de la corriente fluvial que actualmente no se incluyen en el modelo mediante la creación y aplicación de una metodología que estudiara el papel que juegan estos procesos en el modelo InVEST de retención de nutrientes en el área de estudio. Los resultados de esta Tesis contribuirán a comprender la incertidumbre involucrada en el proceso de modelado. También pondrá de manifiesto la necesidad de comprobar el comportamiento de un modelo antes de utilizarlo y en el momento de interpretar los resultados obtenidos. El trabajo en esta Tesis contribuirá a mejorar la plataforma InVEST, que es una herramienta importante en el ámbito de los servicios de los ecosistemas. Dicho trabajo beneficiará a los futuros usuarios de la herramienta, ya sean investigadores (en investigaciones futuras), o técnicos (en futuros trabajos de toma de decisiones o gestión ecosistemas). ABSTRACT Modeling is the process to idealize real-world situations through simplifications in order to obtain a model. However, model estimations lead to uncertainties that have to be evaluated formally. The role of the sensitivity analysis (SA) is to assign model output uncertainty based on the inputs and can increase confidence in model, however, it is often omitted in modelling, usually as a result of the growing effort it involves. In addition, the balance between accuracy and simplicity is not easy to assess. For this reason, when a model is developed, it is necessary to test it in order to understand its behavior and to include, if necessary, more complexity to get a better response. Ecosystem services are the conditions and processes through which natural ecosystems, and their constituent species, sustain and fulfill human life. The relevance of ecosystem services and the need to better manage them and their associated benefits have stimulated the emergence of models and tools to measure them. InVEST, Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradoffs, is one of these ecosystem services-specific tools developed by the Natural Capital Project (Stanford University, USA). As a result of the growing interest in measuring ecosystem services, the use of InVEST is anticipated to grow exponentially in the coming years. However, apart from model development, making a model involves other crucial stages such as its evaluation and application in order to validate estimations. The work developed in this thesis tries to help in this relevant and imperative phase of the modeling process, and does so in two different ways. The first one is to conduct a sensitivity analysis of the model, which consists in choosing and applying a methodology in an area and analyzing the results obtained. The second is related to the in-stream processes that are not modeled in the current model, and consists in creating and applying a methodology for testing the streams role in the InVEST nutrient retention model in a case study, analyzing the results obtained. The results of this Thesis will contribute to the understanding of the uncertainties involved in the modeling process. It will also illustrate the need to check the behavior of every model developed before putting them in production and illustrate the importance of understanding their behavior in terms of correctly interpreting the results obtained in light of uncertainty. The work in this thesis will contribute to improve the InVEST platform, which is an important tool in the field of ecosystem services. Such work will benefit future users, whether they are researchers (in their future research), or technicians (in their future work in ecosystem conservation or management decisions).

Paleoenvironmental changes during the late Miocene (Messinian)–Pliocene transition (Bajo Segura Basin, southeastern Spain): sedimentological and ichnological evidence

A detailed sedimentological and paleontological analysis of the uppermost Miocene (Messinian)–Pliocene boundary at the northern border of the Bajo Segura Basin, southeastern Spain, was carried out in order to describe the evolution of the regional paleocoastline during the Pliocene reflooding of the Mediterranean immediately after the sea-level fall related to the Messinian Salinity Crisis. Multiple trace fossils typical of firm- and hardgrounds were recognized, allowing identification of Glossifungites (two different types), Entobia, and Gnathichnus ichnofacies. Trace-fossil analysis showed that lithology and media consistency exerted considerable control on the development of the different ichnocoenoses and that there was a clear decrease in hydrodynamic energy from a coastal to a shallow-water shelf environment related to progressive sea-level rise. Ichnological and sedimentological data provide evidence that the definitive flooding of the Mediterranean was rapid and synchronous throughout the northern margin of the Bajo Segura Basin. The following model for the Pliocene transgression in the study area is therefore proposed: (1) the marine ingression penetrated along the incised paleovalleys carved as a consequence of the fall in sea level, where the first two Pliocene systems were deposited (P0–P1); (2) during the maximum flooding surface of the transgression, the sea overflowed the margins of the paleovalleys and extended throughout the entire northern margin of the basin; and (3) the third Pliocene system was deposited, forming the lower part of a highstand systems tract (P2).

Cyclically-arranged, storm-controlled, prograding lithosomes in Messinian terrigenous shelves (Bajo Segura Basin, western Mediterranean)

This work focuses on a Messinian shallow-marine terrigenous unit, termed the La Virgen Formation, which forms part of the sedimentary infill of the Bajo Segura Basin (Betic margin of the western Mediterranean). This formation was deposited during a high sea level phase prior to the onset of the Messinian Salinity Crisis. Stratigraphically, it comprises a prograding stack of sandstone lithosomes alternating with marly intervals (1st-order cyclicity). These lithosomes are characterized by a homoclinal geometry that tapers distally, and interfinger with pelagic sediments rich in planktonic and benthic microfauna (Torremendo Formation). An analysis of sedimentary facies of each lithosome reveals a repetitive succession of sandy storm beds (tempestites), occasionally amalgamated, which are separated by thin marly layers (2nd-order cyclicity). Each storm bed contains internal erosional surfaces (3rd-order cyclicity) that delimit sets of laminae. Two categories of storm beds have been differentiated. The first one includes layers formed below storm wave base (SWB), characterized by traction structures associated to unidirectional flows (scoured base, planar lamination, and parting lineation). The second category consists of layers deposited above the SWB which display typical high regime oscillatory flow structures (swaley and hummocky cross lamination). In both cases, the ichnological record is characterized by an oligotypic association of Ophiomorpha nodosa, which can be interpreted as the result of allochthonous tracemakers (crustaceans) transported during storm events together with the sediment. The benthic microfauna in the marly intervals that separate the sandstone lithosomes (1st-order cyclicity) indicates that the storm ebb surges were deposited at depths ranging from those of inner shelf settings (with Elphidium spp. and Cibicides lobatulus) to those of outer shelf (with Valvulineria complanata and Uvigerina cylindrica). At the distal end of the sandstone lithosomes, the planktonic microfauna is characterized by a high content of taxa indicative of warm-oligotrophic waters (Globigerinoides obliquus and Globigerinoides bulloideus). In contrast, in the marly intervals, the microfauna is dominated by species typical of cold-eutrophic waters (Globigerina and Neogloboquadrina). This alternation of planktic foraminiferal assemblages is interpreted as being the expression of climatic cycles, in which every episode of progradation of tempestite-dominated lithosomes corresponds to maximum insolation and warm waters, whereas episodes of marly deposition correspond to minimal insolation and cold waters. The 1st-order cyclicity recorded in the La Virgen Formation, in a context of terrigenous storm-dominated shelf, corresponds to sapropel/homogeneous marl cycles formed in a pelagic basin (Torremendo Fm). These cycles in pelagic sediments are commonplace throughout the Mediterranean during the Messinian and reflect precession orbital changes: repeated periods of maximum insolation – minimum precession (sapropels) and minimal insolation – maximum precession (homogeneous marls). The fact that the example of terrigenous unit studied herein is coetaneous with the well-developed reef complexes in the Mediterranean basins points out the importance of sediment supply in the formation of large-scale sandy lithosomes. This is a crucial aspect to understanding reservoir genesis as well as lateral stratigraphic relationships with potential seal and/or source rocks.

Palaeoenvironmental and palaeoceanographic changes during the lower to middle Jurassic (Toarcian-Aalenian, ~183-171 Ma). : new evidences from calcareous nannofossils of the Lusitanian Basin

Tese de doutoramento (co-tutela), Geologia (Paleontologia e Estratigrafia), Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, 2016

M-AARE - Coupling atmospheric, hydrological, hydrodynamic and damage models in the Aare river basin, Switzerland

The triggering mechanism and the temporal evolution of large flood events, especially of worst-case scenarios, are not yet fully understood. Consequently, the cumulative losses of extreme floods are unknown. To study the link between weather conditions, discharges and flood losses it is necessary to couple atmospheric, hydrological, hydrodynamic and damage models. The objective of the M-AARE project is to test the potentials and opportunities of a model chain that relates atmospheric conditions to flood losses or risks. The M-AARE model chain is a set of coupled models consisting of four main components: the precipitation module, the hydrology module, the hydrodynamic module, and the damage module. The models are coupled in a cascading framework with harmonized time-steps. First exploratory applications show that the one way coupling of the WRF-PREVAH-BASEMENT models has been achieved and provides promising new insights for a better understanding of key aspects in flood risk analysis.

Chemical compositions of rocks and minerals from an underwater volcano of the Kuril deep-sea basin

Mineralogy and geochemistry of low-temperature hydrothermal manifestations occurring on the surface of basalts and in their cracks within a submarine volcano in the north-eastern part of the Kuril deep-sea basin have been studied. The following order of isolation of mineral phases has been found out: Fe-rich sulphides (pyrite) - Fe-rich layered silicates (hydromica of celadonite-nontronite type) - amorphous silica (opal) - Fe-oxyhydroxides (goethite) - Mn-oxyhydroxides (vernadite). Sulphide mineralization is of the phenocryst-stockwork type. Finding of pure barite fragments does not exclude presence of hydrothermal exhalations (smokers) on this volcanic structure.

Total organic carbon, delta13C, biomarker, gas compilations and hopanoids analysis from IODP Sites 307-U1317 and 307-U1318

During the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 307 for the first time a cold-water coral carbonate mound was drilled down through its base into the underlying sediments. In the current study, sample material from within and below Challenger Mound, located in the Belgica carbonate mound province in the Porcupine Basin offshore Ireland, was investigated for its distribution of microbial communities and gas composition using biogeochemical and geochemical approaches to elucidate the question on the initiation of carbonate mounds. Past and living microbial populations are lower in the mound section compared to the underlying sediments or sediments of an upslope reference site. A reason for this might be a reduced substrate feedstock, reflected by low total organic carbon (TOC) contents, in the once coral dominated mound sequence. In contrast, in the reference site a lithostratigraphic sequence with comparatively high TOC contents shows higher abundances of both past and present microbial communities, indicating favourable living conditions from time of sedimentation until today. Composition and isotopic values of gases below the mound base seem to point to a mixed gas of biogenic and thermogenic origin with a higher proportion of biogenic gas. Oil-derived hydrocarbons were not detected at the mound site. This suggests that at least in the investigated part of the mound base the upward flow of fossil hydrocarbons, being one hypothesis for the initiation of the formation of carbonate mounds, seems to be only of minor significance.