Potential influences on the United Kingdom's floods of winter 2013/14

During the winter of 2013/14, much of the UK experienced repeated intense rainfall events and flooding. This had a considerable impact on property and transport infrastructure. A key question is whether the burning of fossil fuels is changing the frequency of extremes, and if so to what extent. We assess the scale of the winter flooding before reviewing a broad range of Earth system drivers affecting UK rainfall. Some drivers can be potentially disregarded for these specific storms whereas others are likely to have increased their risk of occurrence. We discuss the requirements of hydrological models to transform rainfall into river flows and flooding. To determine any general changing flood risk, we argue that accurate modelling needs to capture evolving understanding of UK rainfall interactions with a broad set of factors. This includes changes to multiscale atmospheric, oceanic, solar and sea-ice features, and land-use and demographics. Ensembles of such model simulations may be needed to build probability distributions of extremes for both pre-industrial and contemporary concentration levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases.

Simulated climate change impact on summer dissolved organic carbon release from peat and surface vegetation: implications for drinking water treatment

Uncertainty regarding changes in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) quantity and quality has created interest in managing peatlands for their ecosystem services such as drinking water provision. The evidence base for such interventions is, however, sometimes contradictory. We performed a laboratory climate manipulation using a factorial design on two dominant peatland vegetation types (Calluna vulgaris and Sphagnum Spp.) and a peat soil collected from a drinking water catchment in Exmoor National Park, UK. Temperature and rainfall were set to represent baseline and future conditions under the UKCP09 2080s high emissions scenario for July and August. DOC leachate then underwent standard water treatment of coagulation/flocculation before chlorination. C. vulgaris leached more DOC than Sphagnum Spp. (7.17 versus 3.00 mg g−1) with higher specific ultraviolet (SUVA) values and a greater sensitivity to climate, leaching more DOC under simulated future conditions. The peat soil leached less DOC (0.37 mg g−1) than the vegetation and was less sensitive to climate. Differences in coagulation removal efficiency between the DOC sources appears to be driven by relative solubilisation of protein-like DOC, observed through the fluorescence peak C/T. Post-coagulation only differences between vegetation types were detected for the regulated disinfection by-products (DBPs), suggesting climate change influence at this scale can be removed via coagulation. Our results suggest current biodiversity restoration programmes to encourage Sphagnum Spp. will result in lower DOC concentrations and SUVA values, particularly with warmer and drier summers.

Simulation of the global ENSO–Tropical cyclone teleconnection by a high-resolution coupled general circulation model

This study assesses the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on global tropical cyclone activity using a 150-yr-long integration with a high-resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model [High-Resolution Global Environmental Model (HiGEM); with N144 resolution: ~90 km in the atmosphere and ~40 km in the ocean]. Tropical cyclone activity is compared to an atmosphere-only simulation using the atmospheric component of HiGEM (HiGAM). Observations of tropical cyclones in the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) and tropical cyclones identified in the Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) are used to validate the models. Composite anomalies of tropical cyclone activity in El Niño and La Niña years are used. HiGEM is able to capture the shift in tropical cyclone locations to ENSO in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. However, HiGEM does not capture the expected ENSO–tropical cyclone teleconnection in the North Atlantic. HiGAM shows more skill in simulating the global ENSO–tropical cyclone teleconnection; however, variability in the Pacific is overpronounced. HiGAM is able to capture the ENSO–tropical cyclone teleconnection in the North Atlantic more accurately than HiGEM. An investigation into the large-scale environmental conditions, known to influence tropical cyclone activity, is used to further understand the response of tropical cyclone activity to ENSO in the North Atlantic and western North Pacific. The vertical wind shear response over the Caribbean is not captured in HiGEM compared to HiGAM and ERA-Interim. Biases in the mean ascent at 500 hPa in HiGEM remain in HiGAM over the western North Pacific; however, a more realistic low-level vorticity in HiGAM results in a more accurate ENSO–tropical cyclone teleconnection.

Identification and quantification of glucosinolate and flavonol compounds in rocket salad (Eruca sativa, Eruca vesicaria and Diplotaxis tenuifolia) by LC–MS: Highlighting the potential for improving nutritional value of rocket crops

Liquid Chromatography Mass Spectrometry (LC-MS) was used to obtain glucosinolate and flavonol content for 35 rocket accessions and commercial varieties. 13 glucosinolates and 11 flavonol compounds were identified. Semi-quantitative methods were used to estimate concentrations of both groups of compounds. Minor glucosinolate composition was found to be different between accessions; concentrations varied significantly. Flavonols showed differentiation between genera, with Diplotaxis accumulating quercetin glucosides and Eruca accumulating kaempferol glucosides. Several compounds were detected in each genus that have only previously been reported in the other. We highlight how knowledge of phytochemical content and concentration can be used to breed new, nutritionally superior varieties. We also demonstrate the effects of controlled environment conditions on the accumulations of glucosinolates and flavonols and explore the reasons for differences with previous studies. We stress the importance of consistent experimental design between research groups to effectively compare and contrast results.

Effects of high hydrostatic pressure and chemical reduction on the emulsification properties of gum arabic

Gum arabic is widely used in the food industry as an additive, both as a thickener and an emulsifier. This study has compared the emulsification properties of two types of gums, KLTA (Acacia senegal) and GCA (Acacia seyal), both in their native/untreated forms and after exposure to high pressure (800 MPa). Further studies were undertaken to chemically modify the disulphide linkages present and to investigate the effects of their reduction on the diffusion of the carbohydrate materials. The emulsification properties of the gum samples were examined by determining the droplet size distribution in a ‘‘model’’ oil-in-water system. Results showed that high pressure treatment and chemical reduction of gums changed the emulsification properties of both gums. The high molecular weight component in arabinogalactanproteins (AGP/GP), and more ‘‘branched’’ carbohydrates present in gum arabic, may be responsible for the emulsification properties of GCA gum, indicating that the emulsification mechanisms for KLTA and GCA were different.

Long term changes in EUV and X-ray emissions from the solar corona and chromosphere as measured by the response of the Earth’s ionosphere during total solar eclipses from 1932 to 1999

Measurements of the ionospheric E region during total solar eclipses in the period 1932-1999 have been used to investigate the fraction of Extreme Ultra Violet and soft X-ray radiation, phi, that is emitted from the limb corona and chromosphere. The relative apparent sizes of the Moon and the Sun are different for each eclipse, and techniques are presented which correct the measurements and, therefore, allow direct comparisons between different eclipses. The results show that the fraction of ionising radiation emitted by the limb corona has a clear solar cycle variation and that the underlying trend shows this fraction has been increasing since 1932. Data from the SOHO spacecraft are used to study the effects of short-term variability and it is shown that the observed long-term rise in phi has a negligible probability of being a chance occurrence.

Ionospheric measurements of relative coronal brightness during the total solar eclipses of 11 August, 1999 and 9 July, 1945

Swept-frequency (1-10 MHz) ionosonde measurements were made at Helston, Cornwall (50 degrees 06'N, 5 degrees 18'W) during the total solar eclipse on August 11, 1999. Soundings were made every three minutes. We present a method for estimating the percentage of the ionising solar radiation which remains unobscured at any time during the eclipse by comparing the variation of the ionospheric E-layer with the behaviour of the layer during a control day. Application to the ionosonde date for II August, 1999, shows that the flux of solar ionising radiation fell to a minimum of 25 +/- 2% of the value before and after the eclipse. For comparison, the same technique was also applied to measurements made during the total solar eclipse of 9 July, 1945, at Sormjole (63 degrees 68'N, 20 degrees 20'E) and yielded a corresponding minimum of 16 +/- 2%. Therefore the method can detect variations in the fraction of solar emissions that originate from the unobscured corona and chromosphere. We discuss the differences between these two eclipses in terms of the nature of the eclipse, short-term fluctuations, the sunspot cycle and the recently-discovered long-term change in the coronal magnetic field.

Time-varying price discovery in the eighteenth century: empirical evidence from the London and Amsterdam stock markets

This paper examines the time-varying nature of price discovery in eighteenth century cross-listed stocks. Specifically, we investigate how quickly news is reflected in prices for two of the great moneyed com- panies, the Bank of England and the East India Company, over the period 1723 to 1794. These British companies were cross-listed on the London and Amsterdam stock exchange and news between the capitals flowed mainly via the use of boats that transported mail. We examine in detail the historical context sur- rounding the defining events of the period, and use these as a guide to how the data should be analysed. We show that both trading venues contributed to price discovery, and although the London venue was more important for these stocks, its importance varies over time.

Effect of high-hydrostatic pressure and pH treatments on the emulsification properties of gum arabic

This study investigated the emulsification properties of the native gums and those treated at high pressure (800 MPa) both at their “natural” pH (4.49 and 4.58, respectively) and under “acidic and basic” pH (2.8 and 8.0) conditions. The emulsification behaviour of KLTA gum was found to be superior to that of the GCA gum. High pressure and pH treatment changed the emulsification properties of both gums. The acidic amino acids in gum arabic were shown to play an important role in their emulsification behaviour, and mechanisms of emulsification for the two gums were suggested to be different. The highly “branched” nature of the carbohydrate in GCA gum was also thought to be responsible for the “spreading” of droplet size distributions observed. Coomassie brilliant blue binding was used to indicate conformational changes in protein structure and Ellman’s assay was used to estimate any changes in levels of free thiols present.

Le credit au Moyen Age: les prets a la couronne D'Angleterre entre 1272 et 1345

A summary of some of the key findings of a recent ESRC-funded project based at the ICMA centre, University of Reading. This study applied modern financial analysis and theories to the early history of sovereign debt, in this case the credit arrangements between the ‘Three Edwards’, kings of England 1272-1377, and a succession of Italian merchant societies.

Effects of targeted delivery of propionate to the human colon on appetite regulation, body weight maintenance and adiposity in overweight adults

Objective The colonic microbiota ferment dietary fibres, producing short chain fatty acids. Recent evidence suggests that the short chain fatty acid propionate may play an important role in appetite regulation. We hypothesised that colonic delivery of propionate would increase peptide YY (PYY) and glucagon like peptide-1 (GLP-1) secretion in humans, and reduce energy intake and weight gain in overweight adults. Design To investigate whether propionate promotes PYY and GLP-1 secretion, a primary cultured human colonic cell model was developed. To deliver propionate specifically to the colon, we developed a novel inulin-propionate ester. An acute randomised, controlled cross-over study was used to assess the effects of this inulin-propionate ester on energy intake and plasma PYY and GLP-1 concentrations. The long-term effects of inulin-propionate ester on weight gain were subsequently assessed in a randomised, controlled 24-week study involving 60 overweight adults. Results Propionate significantly stimulated the release of PYY and GLP-1 from human colonic cells. Acute ingestion of 10 g inulin-propionate ester significantly increased postprandial plasma PYY and GLP-1 and reduced energy intake. Over 24 weeks, 10 g/day inulin-propionate ester supplementation significantly reduced weight gain, intra-abdominal adipose tissue distribution, intrahepatocellular lipid content and prevented the deterioration in insulin sensitivity observed in the inulin-control group. Conclusions These data demonstrate for the first time that increasing colonic propionate prevents weight gain in overweight adult humans

Use of TD-GC-TOF-MS to assess volatile composition during post harvest storage in seven accessions of rocket salad (Eruca sativa)

An important step in breeding for nutritionally enhanced varieties is determining the effects of the post-harvest supply chain on phytochemicals and the changes in VOCs produced over time. TD- GC-TOF-MS was used and a technique for the extraction of VOCs from the headspace using portable tubes is described. Forty-two compounds were detected; 39 were identified by comparison to NIST libraries. Thirty-five compounds had not been previously reported in Eruca sativa. Seven accessions were assessed for changes in headspace VOCs over 7 days. Relative amounts of VOCs across 3 time points were significantly different - isothiocyanate-containing molecules being abundant on 'Day 0'. Each accession showed differences in proportions/types of volatiles produced on each day. PCA revealed a separation of VOC profiles according to the day of sampling. Changes in VOC profiles over time could provide a tool for assessment of shelf-life.