993 resultados para Anticipated regret


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The flood seasonality of catchments in Switzerland is likely to change under climate change because of anticipated alterations of precipitation as well as snow accumulation and melt. Information on this change is crucial for flood protection policies, for example, or regional flood frequency analysis. We analysed projected changes in mean annual and maximum floods of a 22-year period for 189 catchments in Switzerland and two scenario periods in the 21st century based on an ensemble of climate scenarios. The flood seasonality was analysed with directional statistics that allow assessing both changes in the mean date a flood occurs as well as changes in the strength of the seasonality. We found that the simulated change in flood seasonality is a function of the change in flow regime type. If snow accumulation and melt is important in a catchment during the control period, then the anticipated change in flood seasonality is most pronounced. Decreasing summer precipitation in the scenarios additionally affects the flood seasonality (mean date of flood occurrence) and leads to a decreasing strength of seasonality, that is a higher temporal variability in most cases. The magnitudes of mean annual floods and more clearly of maximum floods (in a 22-year period) are expected to increase in the future because of changes in flood-generating processes and scaled extreme precipitation. Southern alpine catchments show a different signal, though: the simulated mean annual floods decrease in the far future, that is at the end of the 21st century. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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AIMS To assess serially the edge vascular response (EVR) of a bioresorbable vascular scaffold (BVS) compared to a metallic everolimus-eluting stent (EES). METHODS AND RESULTS Non-serial evaluations of the Absorb BVS at one year have previously demonstrated proximal edge constrictive remodelling and distal edge changes in plaque composition with increase of the percent fibro-fatty (FF) tissue component. The 5 mm proximal and distal segments adjacent to the implanted devices were investigated serially with intravascular ultrasound (IVUS), post procedure, at six months and at two years, from the ABSORB Cohort B1 (n=45) and the SPIRIT II (n=113) trials. Twenty-two proximal and twenty-four distal edge segments were available for analysis in the ABSORB Cohort B1 trial. In the SPIRIT II trial, thirty-three proximal and forty-six distal edge segments were analysed. At the 5-mm proximal edge, the vessels treated with an Absorb BVS from post procedure to two years demonstrated a lumen loss (LL) of 6.68% (-17.33; 2.08) (p=0.027) with a trend toward plaque area increase of 7.55% (-4.68; 27.11) (p=0.06). At the 5-mm distal edge no major changes were evident at either time point. At the 5-mm proximal edge the vessels treated with a XIENCE V EES from post procedure to two years did not show any signs of LL, only plaque area decrease of 6.90% (-17.86; 4.23) (p=0.035). At the distal edge no major changes were evident with regard to either lumen area or vessel remodelling at the same time point. CONCLUSIONS The IVUS-based serial evaluation of the EVR up to two years following implantation of a bioresorbable everolimus-eluting scaffold shows a statistically significant proximal edge LL; however, this finding did not seem to have any clinical implications in the serial assessment. The upcoming imaging follow-up of the Absorb BVS at three years is anticipated to provide further information regarding the vessel wall behaviour at the edges.

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BACKGROUND Patients can make valuable contributions towards promoting the safety of their health care. Health care professionals (HCPs) could play an important role in encouraging patient involvement in safety-relevant behaviours. However, to date factors that determine HCPs' attitudes towards patient participation in this area remain largely unexplored. OBJECTIVE To investigate predictors of HCPs' attitudes towards patient involvement in safety-relevant behaviours. DESIGN A 22-item cross-sectional fractional factorial survey that assessed HCPs' attitudes towards patient involvement in relation to two error scenarios relating to hand hygiene and medication safety. SETTING Four hospitals in London PARTICIPANTS   Two hundred sixteen HCPs (116 doctors; 100 nurses) aged between 21 and 60 years (mean: 32): 129 female. OUTCOME MEASURES Approval of patient's behaviour, HCP response to the patient, anticipated effects on the patient-HCP relationship, support for being asked as a HCP, affective rating response to the vignettes. RESULTS HCPs elicited more favourable attitudes towards patients intervening about a medication error than about hand sanitation. Across vignettes and error scenarios, the strongest predictors of attitudes were how the patient intervened and how the HCP responded to the patient's behaviour. With regard to HCP characteristics, doctors viewed patients intervening less favourably than nurses. CONCLUSIONS HCPs perceive patients intervening about a potential error less favourably if the patient's behaviour is confrontational in nature or if the HCP responds to the patient intervening in a discouraging manner. In particular, if a HCP responds negatively to the patient (irrespective of whether an error actually occurred), this is perceived as having negative effects on the HCP-patient relationship.

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Various factors are associated with sexual activity in adolescence and it is important to identify those that promote healthy and adaptive romantic and sexual development. The objectives of this study were to describe rates of early sexual intercourse (before 16 years) and sexual readiness in adolescence and to assess the extent to which these were social patterned. We prospectively studied nearly 5,000 15-year-olds from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, a UK birth cohort. Between 2006 and 2008, female and male participants answered a computer assisted interview about romantic and sexual behaviors in the last year. Predictors of sexual intercourse and readiness for sexual intercourse were examined across a range of sociodemographic measures. Overall, 17.7 % (95 % CI 16.7 %, 18.9 %) of participants reported having had sexual intercourse in the last year, with more girls than boys reporting sexual experience (risk ratio 1.30, 95 % CI 1.15, 1.47). Of these, one-third of both male and female were classed as unready because they were unwilling, lacking in autonomy, felt regret or had not used contraception. There was strong evidence of social patterning for sexual activity with higher rates for young people from poorer homes, with lower social class, and with younger, less educated mothers. In contrast, among 860 young people who had had sexual intercourse, there was no clear evidence of associations between social factors and sexual readiness. The lack of social patterning in sexual readiness supports the provision of comprehensive education to develop life skills for adolescents across all social groups.

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Internet of Things based systems are anticipated to gain widespread use in industrial applications. Standardization efforts, like 6L0WPAN and the Constrained Application Protocol (CoAP) have made the integration of wireless sensor nodes possible using Internet technology and web-like access to data (RESTful service access). While there are still some open issues, the interoperability problem in the lower layers can now be considered solved from an enterprise software vendors' point of view. One possible next step towards integration of real-world objects into enterprise systems and solving the corresponding interoperability problems at higher levels is to use semantic web technologies. We introduce an abstraction of real-world objects, called Semantic Physical Business Entities (SPBE), using Linked Data principles. We show that this abstraction nicely fits into enterprise systems, as SPBEs allow a business object centric view on real-world objects, instead of a pure device centric view. The interdependencies between how currently services in an enterprise system are used and how this can be done in a semantic real-world aware enterprise system are outlined, arguing for the need of semantic services and semantic knowledge repositories. We introduce a lightweight query language, which we use to perform a quantitative analysis of our approach to demonstrate its feasibility.

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Rationale: Life-threatening intraabdominal candidiasis (IAC) occurs in 30 to 40% of high-risk surgical intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Although early IAC diagnosis is crucial, blood cultures are negative, and the role of Candida score/colonization indexes is not established. Objectives: The aim of this prospective Fungal Infection Network of Switzerland (FUNGINOS) cohort study was to assess accuracy of 1,3-β-d-glucan (BG) antigenemia for diagnosis of IAC. Methods: Four hundred thirty-four consecutive adults with abdominal surgery or acute pancreatitis and ICU stay 72 hours or longer were screened: 89 (20.5%) at high risk for IAC were studied (68 recurrent gastrointestinal tract perforation, 21 acute necrotizing pancreatitis). Diagnostic accuracy of serum BG (Fungitell), Candida score, and colonization indexes was compared. Measurements and Main Results: Fifty-eight of 89 (65%) patients were colonized by Candida; 29 of 89 (33%) presented IAC (27 of 29 with negative blood cultures). Nine hundred twenty-one sera were analyzed (9/patient): median BG was 253 pg/ml (46–9,557) in IAC versus 99 pg/ml (8–440) in colonization (P < 0.01). Sensitivity and specificity of two consecutive BG measurements greater than or equal to 80 pg/ml were 65 and 78%, respectively. In recurrent gastrointestinal tract perforation it was 75 and 77% versus 90 and 38% (Candida score ≥ 3), 79 and 34% (colonization index ≥ 0.5), and 54 and 63% (corrected colonization index ≥ 0.4), respectively. BG positivity anticipated IAC diagnosis (5 d) and antifungal therapy (6 d). Severe sepsis/septic shock and death occurred in 10 of 11 (91%) and 4 of 11 (36%) patients with BG 400 pg/ml or more versus 5 of 18 (28%, P = 0.002) and 1 of 18 (6%, P = 0.05) with BG measurement less than 400 pg/ml. β-Glucan decreased in IAC responding to therapy and increased in nonresponse. Conclusions: BG antigenemia is superior to Candida score and colonization indexes and anticipates diagnosis of blood culture–negative IAC. This proof-of-concept observation in strictly selected high-risk surgical ICU patients deserves investigation of BG-driven preemptive therapy.

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During school-to-work transition, adolescents develop values and prioritize what is im-portant in their life. Values are concepts or beliefs about desirable states or behaviors that guide the selection or evaluation of behavior and events, and are ordered by their relative importance (Schwartz & Bilsky, 1987). Stressing the important role of values, career re-search has intensively studied the effect of values on educational decisions and early career development (e.g. Eccles, 2005; Hirschi, 2010; Rimann, Udris, & Weiss, 2000). Few re-searchers, however, have investigated so far how values develop in the early career phase and how value trajectories are influenced by individual characteristics. Values can be oriented towards specific life domains, such as work or family. Work values include intrinsic and extrinsic aspects of work (e.g., self-development, cooperation with others, income) (George & Jones, 1997). Family values include the importance of partner-ship, the creation of an own family and having children (Mayer, Kuramschew, & Trommsdroff, 2009). Research indicates that work values change considerably during early career development (Johnson, 2001; Lindsay & Knox, 1984). Individual differences in work values and value trajectories are found e.g., in relation to gender (Duffy & Sedlacek, 2007), parental background (Loughlin & Barling, 2001), personality (Lowry et al., 2012), educa-tion (Battle, 2003), and the anticipated timing of school-to-work transition (Porfeli, 2007). In contrast to work values, research on family value trajectories is rare and knowledge about the development during the school-to-work transition and early career development is lack-ing. This paper aims at filling this research gap. Focusing on family values and intrinsic work values and we expect a) family and work val-ues to change between ages 16 and 25, and b) that initial levels of family and work values as well as value change to be predicted by gender, reading literacy, ambition, and expected du-ration of education. Method. Using data from 2620 young adults (59.5% females), who participated in the Swiss longitudinal study TREE, latent growth modeling was employed to estimate the initial level and growth rate per year for work and family values. Analyses are based on TREE-waves 1 (year 2001, first year after compulsory school) to 8 (year 2010). Variables in the models included family values and intrinsic work values, gender, reading literacy, ambition and ex-pected duration of education. Language region was included as control variable. Results. Family values did not change significantly over the first four years after leaving compulsory school (mean slope = -.03, p =.36). They increased, however, significantly five years after compulsory school (mean slope = .13, p >.001). Intercept (.23, p < .001), first slope (.02, p < .001), and second slope (.01, p < .001) showed significant variance. Initial levels were higher for men and those with higher ambitions. Increases were found to be steeper for males as well as for participants with lower educational duration expectations and reading skills. Intrinsic work values increased over the first four years (mean slope =.03, p <.05) and showed a tendency to decrease in the years five to ten (mean slope = -.01, p < .10). Intercept (.21, p < .001), first slope (.01, p < .001), and second slope (.01, p < .001) showed signifi-cant variance, meaning that there are individual differences in initial levels and growth rates. Initial levels were higher for females, and those with higher ambitions, expecting longer educational pathways, and having lower reading skills. Growth rates were lower for the first phase and steeper for the second phase for males compared to females. Discussion. In general, results showed different patterns of work and family value trajecto-ries, and different individual factors related to initial levels and development after compul-sory school. Developments seem to fit to major life and career roles: in the first years after compulsory school young adults may be engaged to become established in one's job; later on, raising a family becomes more important. That we found significant gender differences in work and family trajectories may reflect attempts to overcome traditional roles, as over-all, women increase in work values and men increase in family values, resulting in an over-all trend to converge.

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OBJECTIVES In 2003 the International Breast Cancer Study Group (IBCSG) initiated the TEXT and SOFT randomized phase III trials to answer two questions concerning adjuvant treatment for premenopausal women with endocrine-responsive early breast cancer: 1-What is the role of aromatase inhibitors (AI) for women treated with ovarian function suppression (OFS)? 2-What is the role of OFS for women who remain premenopausal and are treated with tamoxifen? METHODS TEXT randomized patients to receive exemestane or tamoxifen with OFS. SOFT randomized patients to receive exemestane with OFS, tamoxifen with OFS, or tamoxifen alone. Treatment was for 5 years from randomization. RESULTS TEXT and SOFT successfully met their enrollment goals in 2011. The 5738 enrolled women had lower-risk disease and lower observed disease-free survival (DFS) event rates than anticipated. Consequently, 7 and 13 additional years of follow-up for TEXT and SOFT, respectively, were required to reach the targeted DFS events (median follow-up about 10.5 and 15 years). To provide timely answers, protocol amendments in 2011 specified analyses based on chronological time and median follow-up. To assess the AI question, exemestane + OFS versus tamoxifen + OFS, a combined analysis of TEXT and SOFT became the primary analysis (n = 4717). The OFS question became the primary analysis from SOFT, assessing the unique comparison of tamoxifen + OFS versus tamoxifen alone (n = 2045). The first reports are anticipated in mid- and late-2014. CONCLUSIONS We present the original designs of TEXT and SOFT and adaptations to ensure timely answers to two questions concerning optimal adjuvant endocrine treatment for premenopausal women with endocrine-responsive breast cancer. Trial Registration TEXT: Clinicaltrials.govNCT00066703 SOFT: Clinicaltrials.govNCT00066690.

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A new Swiss federal licencing examination for human medicine (FLE) was developed and released in 2011. This paper describes the process from concept design to the first results obtained on implementation of the new examination. The development process was based on the Federal Act on University Medical Professions and involved all national stakeholders in this venture. During this process questions relating to the assessment aims, the assessment formats, the assessment dimensions, the examination content and necessary trade-offs were clarified. The aims were to create a feasible, fair, valid and psychometrically sound examination in accordance with international standards, thereby indicating the expected knowledge and skills level at the end of undergraduate medical education. Finally, a centrally managed and locally administered examination comprising a written multiple-choice element and a practical “clinical skills” test in the objective structured clinical examination (OSCE) format was developed. The first two administrations of the new FLE show that the examination concept could be implemented as intended. The anticipated psychometric indices were achieved and the results support the validity of the examination. Possible changes to the format or content in the future are discussed.

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Alpine grasslands are an important source of fodder for the cattle of Alpine farmers. Only during the short summer season can these pastures be used for grazing. With the anticipated climate change, it is likely that plant production – and thus the fodder basis for the cattle – will be influenced. Investigating the dependence of biomass production on topoclimatic factors will allow us to better understand how anticipated climate change may influence this traditional Alpine farming system. Because small-scale topoclimatological variations of the main meteorological variables: temperature, humidity, precipitation, shortwave incoming radiation and wind speed are not easily derived from available long-term climate stations in mountainous terrain, it was our goal to investigate the topoclimatic variations over the pastures belonging to the Alp Weissenstein research station north of the Albula Pass in the eastern Swiss Alps. We present a basic assessment of current topoclimatic conditions as a site characterization for ongoing ecological climate change studies. To be able to link short-term studies with long-term climate records, we related agrometeorological measurements with those of surrounding long-term sites run by MeteoSwiss, both on valley bottoms (Davos, Samedan), and on mountain tops (Weissfluhjoch, Piz Corvatsch). We found that the Davos climate station north of the study area is most closely correlated with the local climate of Alp Weissenstein, although a much closer site (Samedan) exists on the other side of the Albula Pass. Mountain top stations, however, did not provide a convincing approximation for the climate at Alp Weissenstein. Direct comparisons of near-surface measurements from a set of 11 small weather stations distributed over the domain where cattle and sheep are grazed indicate that nocturnal minimum air temperature and minimum vapor pressure deficit are mostly governed by the altitudinal gradient, whereas daily maxima – including also wind speed – are more strongly depending on vegetation cover and less on the altitude.

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The Pulmonary route has been traditionally used to treat diseases of the respiratory tract. However, important research within the last two decades have shown that in addition to treating local diseases, a wide range of systemic diseases can be treated by delivering drugs to the lungs. The recent FDA approval to market Exubera, an inhalable form of insulin developed by Pfizer, to treat Diabetes, may just be the stepping stone that the pharmaceutical industry needs to market other drugs to treat systemic diseases via the lungs. However, this technology still needs repeated drug doses to control glucose levels, as the inhaled drug is cleared rapidly. Technologies have been developed where inhaled particles are capable of controlled release of drug from the lungs. An important feature of these technologies is the large geometric size of the particles that makes it difficult for the lung macrophages to clear these particles, which results in longer residence times for the particles in the lungs. Owing to the porosity, these particles have lower densities making them deliverable to the deep lungs. However, no modulation of drug release can be achieved with these technologies when more drug release may be required. This additional requirement can only be assuaged by additional dosing of the drug formulation, which can have undesirable effects due to excess loading of excipients in the lungs. In an attempt to bring about modulation of release from long residence time particles, a novel concept was developed in our laboratory that has been termed as the Agglomerated Vesicle Technology (AVT). Liposomes with encapsulated drug were agglomerated using well known cross linking chemistries to form agglomerates in the micron sized range. The large particles exhibited aerodynamic sizes in the respirable size range with minimal damage to the particles upon nebulization. By breaking the cross links between the liposomes with a cleaving agent, it was anticipated that triggered release of drug from the AVT particles could be achieved. In vivo studies done in healthy rabbits showed that post-administration modulation of drug release is possible from the AVT particles after the introduction of the cleaving agent. This study has important implications for the future development of this technology, where the AVT particles can be made “sensitive” to the product of disease. It is envisaged that a single dose of AVT containing the appropriate drug when administered to the lungs would maintain drug levels at a controlled rate over an extended period of time. When the need for more drug arises, the product of the disease would trigger the AVT particles to release more drug as needed to control the condition, thus eliminating the need for repeated drug doses and improved compliance amongst patients.

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Here we present, for the first time, a glossary of biometeorological terms. The glossary aims to address the need for a reliable source of biometeorological definitions, thereby facilitating communication and mutual understanding in this rapidly expanding field. A total of 171 terms are defined, with reference to 234 citations. It is anticipated that the glossary will be revisited in coming years, updating terms and adding new terms, as appropriate. The glossary is intended to provide a useful resource to the biometeorology community, and to this end, readers are encouraged to contact the lead author to suggest additional terms for inclusion in later versions of the glossary as a result of new and emerging developments in the field.

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Treatment for cancer often involves combination therapies used both in medical practice and clinical trials. Korn and Simon listed three reasons for the utility of combinations: 1) biochemical synergism, 2) differential susceptibility of tumor cells to different agents, and 3) higher achievable dose intensity by exploiting non-overlapping toxicities to the host. Even if the toxicity profile of each agent of a given combination is known, the toxicity profile of the agents used in combination must be established. Thus, caution is required when designing and evaluating trials with combination therapies. Traditional clinical design is based on the consideration of a single drug. However, a trial of drugs in combination requires a dose-selection procedure that is vastly different than that needed for a single-drug trial. When two drugs are combined in a phase I trial, an important trial objective is to determine the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). The MTD is defined as the dose level below the dose at which two of six patients experience drug-related dose-limiting toxicity (DLT). In phase I trials that combine two agents, more than one MTD generally exists, although all are rarely determined. For example, there may be an MTD that includes high doses of drug A with lower doses of drug B, another one for high doses of drug B with lower doses of drug A, and yet another for intermediate doses of both drugs administered together. With classic phase I trial designs, only one MTD is identified. Our new trial design allows identification of more than one MTD efficiently, within the context of a single protocol. The two drugs combined in our phase I trial are temsirolimus and bevacizumab. Bevacizumab is a monoclonal antibody targeting the vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) pathway which is fundamental for tumor growth and metastasis. One mechanism of tumor resistance to antiangiogenic therapy is upregulation of hypoxia inducible factor 1α (HIF-1α) which mediates responses to hypoxic conditions. Temsirolimus has resulted in reduced levels of HIF-1α making this an ideal combination therapy. Dr. Donald Berry developed a trial design schema for evaluating low, intermediate and high dose levels of two drugs given in combination as illustrated in a recently published paper in Biometrics entitled “A Parallel Phase I/II Clinical Trial Design for Combination Therapies.” His trial design utilized cytotoxic chemotherapy. We adapted this design schema by incorporating greater numbers of dose levels for each drug. Additional dose levels are being examined because it has been the experience of phase I trials that targeted agents, when given in combination, are often effective at dosing levels lower than the FDA-approved dose of said drugs. A total of thirteen dose levels including representative high, intermediate and low dose levels of temsirolimus with representative high, intermediate, and low dose levels of bevacizumab will be evaluated. We hypothesize that our new trial design will facilitate identification of more than one MTD, if they exist, efficiently and within the context of a single protocol. Doses gleaned from this approach could potentially allow for a more personalized approach in dose selection from among the MTDs obtained that can be based upon a patient’s specific co-morbid conditions or anticipated toxicities.

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The intensive use of nano-sized particles in many different applications necessitates studies on their risk assessment as there are still open questions on their safe handling and utilization. For reliable risk assessment, the interaction of nanoparticles (NP) with biological systems after various routes of exposure needs to be investigated using well-characterized NP. We report here on the generation of gold-NP (Au-NP) aerosols for inhalation studies with the spark ignition technique, and their characterization in terms of chemical composition, physical structure, morphology, and specific surface area, and on interaction with lung tissues and lung cells after 1 h inhalation by mice. The originally generated agglomerated Au-NP were converted into compact spherical Au-NP by thermal annealing at 600 °C, providing particles of similar mass, but different size and specific surface area. Since there are currently no translocation data available on inhaled Au-NP in the 10–50 nm diameter range, the emphasis was to generate NP as small as 20 nm for inhalation in rodents. For anticipated in vivo systemic translocation and dosimetry analyses, radiolabeled Au-NP were created by proton irradiating the gold electrodes of the spark generator, thus forming gamma ray emitting 195Au with 186 days half-life, allowing long-term biokinetic studies. The dissolution rate of 195Au from the NP was below detection limits. The highly concentrated, polydisperse Au-NP aerosol (1–2 × 107 NP/cm3) proved to be constant over several hours in terms of its count median mobility diameter, its geometric standard deviation and number concentration. After collection on filters particles can be re-suspended and used for instillation or ingestion studies.

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In previous studies, we found that the improved contractile ability of cardiac myocytes from patients who have had left ventricular assist device (LVAD) support was due to a number of beneficial changes, most notably in calcium handling (increased sarcoplasmic reticulum calcium binding and uptake), improved integrity of cell membranes due to phospholipid reconstruction (reduced lysophospholipid content), and an upregulation of adrenoreceptors (increased adrenoreceptor numbers). However, in the case presented here, there was no increase in adrenoreceptor number, which is something that we usually find in core tissue at the time of LVAD removal or organ transplantation; also, there was no homogeneous postassist device receptor distribution. However, the patient was well maintained for 10 months following LVAD implantation, until a donor organ was available, regardless of the lack of adrenoreceptor improvement. We conclude from these studies that cardiac recovery is the result of the initiation of multiple repair mechanisms, and that the lack of expected changes, in this case increased adrenoreceptors, is not always an accurate indicator of anticipated outcome. We suggest that interventions and strategies have to consider multiple, beneficial changes due to unloading and target a number of biochemical and structural areas to produce improvement, even if not all of these improvements occur.