The importance of the diurnal and annual cycle of air traffic for contrail radiative forcing

Air traffic condensation trails, or contrails, are believed to have a net atmospheric warming effect(1), although one that is currently small compared to that induced by other sources of human emissions. However, the comparably large growth rate of air traffic requires an improved understanding of the resulting impact of aircraft radiative forcing on climate(2). Contrails have an effect on the Earth's energy balance similar to that of high thin ice clouds(3). Their trapping of outgoing longwave radiation emitted by the Earth and atmosphere (positive radiative forcing) is partly compensated by their reflection of incoming solar radiation (negative radiative forcing). On average, the longwave effect dominates and the net contrail radiative forcing is believed to be positive(1,2,4). Over daily and annual timescales, varying levels of air traffic, meteorological conditions, and solar insolation influence the net forcing effect of contrails. Here we determine the factors most important for contrail climate forcing using a sophisticated radiative transfer model(5,6) for a site in southeast England, located in the entrance to the North Atlantic flight corridor. We find that night-time flights during winter (December to February) are responsible for most of the contrail radiative forcing. Night flights account for only 25 per cent of daily air traffic, but contribute 60 to 80 per cent of the contrail forcing. Further, winter flights account for only 22 per cent of annual air traffic, but contribute half of the annual mean forcing. These results suggest that flight rescheduling could help to minimize the climate impact of aviation.

When smoke gets in our eyes: The multiple impacts of atmospheric black carbon on climate, air quality and health

With both climate change and air quality on political and social agendas from local to global scale, the links between these hitherto separate fields are becoming more apparent. Black carbon, largely from combustion processes, scatters and absorbs incoming solar radiation, contributes to poor air quality and induces respiratory and cardiovascular problems. Uncertainties in the amount, location, size and shape of atmospheric black carbon cause large uncertainty in both climate change estimates and toxicology studies alike. Increased research has led to new effects and areas of uncertainty being uncovered. Here we draw together recent results and explore the increasing opportunities for synergistic research that will lead to improved confidence in the impact of black carbon on climate change, air quality and human health. Topics of mutual interest include better information on spatial distribution, size, mixing state and measuring and monitoring. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. II. Different reconstructions of the total solar irradiance variation and dependence on response time scale

We have previously placed the solar contribution to recent global warming in context using observations and without recourse to climate models. It was shown that all solar forcings of climate have declined since 1987. The present paper extends that analysis to include the effects of the various time constants with which the Earth’s climate system might react to solar forcing. The solar input waveform over the past 100 years is defined using observed and inferred galactic cosmic ray fluxes, valid for either a direct effect of cosmic rays on climate or an effect via their known correlation with total solar irradiance (TSI), or for a combination of the two. The implications, and the relative merits, of the various TSI composite data series are discussed and independent tests reveal that the PMOD composite used in our previous paper is the most realistic. Use of the ACRIM composite, which shows a rise in TSI over recent decades, is shown to be inconsistent with most published evidence for solar influences on pre-industrial climate. The conclusions of our previous paper, that solar forcing has declined over the past 20 years while surface air temperatures have continued to rise, are shown to apply for the full range of potential time constants for the climate response to the variations in the solar forcings.

Recent changes in solar outputs and the global mean surface temperature. III. Analysis of contributions to global mean air surface temperature rise

A multivariate fit to the variation in global mean surface air temperature anomaly over the past half century is presented. The fit procedure allows for the effect of response time on the waveform, amplitude and lag of each radiative forcing input, and each is allowed to have its own time constant. It is shown that the contribution of solar variability to the temperature trend since 1987 is small and downward; the best estimate is -1.3% and the 2sigma confidence level sets the uncertainty range of -0.7 to -1.9%. The result is the same if one quantifies the solar variation using galactic cosmic ray fluxes (for which the analysis can be extended back to 1953) or the most accurate total solar irradiance data composite. The rise in the global mean air surface temperatures is predominantly associated with a linear increase that represents the combined effects of changes in anthropogenic well-mixed greenhouse gases and aerosols, although, in recent decades, there is also a considerable contribution by a relative lack of major volcanic eruptions. The best estimate is that the anthropogenic factors contribute 75% of the rise since 1987, with an uncertainty range (set by the 2sigma confidence level using an AR(1) noise model) of 49–160%; thus, the uncertainty is large, but we can state that at least half of the temperature trend comes from the linear term and that this term could explain the entire rise. The results are consistent with the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) estimates of the changes in radiative forcing (given for 1961–1995) and are here combined with those estimates to find the response times, equilibrium climate sensitivities and pertinent heat capacities (i.e. the depth into the oceans to which a given radiative forcing variation penetrates) of the quasi-periodic (decadal-scale) input forcing variations. As shown by previous studies, the decadal-scale variations do not penetrate as deeply into the oceans as the longer term drifts and have shorter response times. Hence, conclusions about the response to century-scale forcing changes (and hence the associated equilibrium climate sensitivity and the temperature rise commitment) cannot be made from studies of the response to shorter period forcing changes.

Clastic and core lava components of a silicic lava dome

The formation of a lava dome involves fractionation of the lava into core and clastic components. We show that for three separate, successive andesitic lava domes that grew at Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat, between 1999 and 2007, the volumetric proportion of the lava converted to talus or pyroclastic flow deposits was 50%–90% of the lava extruded. Currently, only 8% of the total magma extruded during the 1995–2007 eruption remains as core lava. The equivalent representation in the geological record will probably be even lower. Most of the lava extruded at the surface flowed no further than 150–300 m from the vent before disaggregation, resulting in a lava core whose shape tends to a cylinder. Moderate to high extrusion rates at the Soufrière Hills domes may have contributed to the large clastic fraction observed. Creating talus dissipates much of the energy that would otherwise be stored in the core lava of domes. The extreme hazards from large pyroclastic flows and blasts posed by wholesale collapse of a lava dome depend largely on the size of the lava core, and hence on the aggregate history of the partitioning process, not on the size of the dome.

Status and distribution of the Grey-headed Fish-Eagle (Ichthyophaga ichthyaetus) in the Prek Toal Core Area of Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia

The regional population of the Grey-headed Fish-Eagle (Ichthyophaga ichthyaetus) in Southeast Asia is thought to be in recent decline and its conservation status Linder threat. We undertook a systematic survey in a flooded swamp forest at the Tonle Sap Lake in Cambodia and recorded 32 pairs of eagles in an area of approximately 80 km(2). Three species of water snakes were identified as eagle prey items, previously unrecorded for this species. We suggest that this eagle population has significant regional importance and discuss potential anthropogenic threats to population stability, such as water snake harvesting and construction Of upstream hydropower dams.

The Acute Care Undergraduate TEaching (ACUTE) initiative: consensus development of core competencies in acute care for undergraduates in the United Kingdom

Background: The care of the acutely ill patient in hospital is often sub-optimal. Poor recognition of critical illness combined with a lack of knowledge, failure to appreciate the clinical urgency of a situation, a lack of supervision, failure to seek advice and poor communication have been identified as contributory factors. At present the training of medical students in these important skills is fragmented. The aim of this study was to use consensus techniques to identify the core competencies in the care of acutely ill or arrested adult patients that medical students should possess at the point of graduation. Design: Healthcare professionals were invited to contribute suggestions for competencies to a website as part of a modified Delphi survey. The competency proposals were grouped into themes and rated by a nominal group comprised of physicians, nurses and students from the UK. The nominal group rated the importance of each competency using a 5-point Likert scale. Results: A total of 359 healthcare professionals contributed 2,629 competency suggestions during the Delphi survey. These were reduced to 88 representative themes covering: airway and oxygenation; breathing and ventilation; circulation; confusion and coma; drugs, therapeutics and protocols; clinical examination; monitoring and investigations; team-working, organisation and communication; patient and societal needs; trauma; equipment; pre-hospital care; infection and inflammation. The nominal group identified 71 essential and 16 optional competencies which students should possess at the point of graduation. Conclusions: We propose these competencies form a core set for undergraduate training in resuscitation and acute care.