Using an inverse-logistic model to describe growth increments of blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra) in Tasmania

A new description of growth in blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra) with the use of an inverse-logistic model is introduced. The inverse-logistic model avoids the disadvantageous assumptions of either rapid or slow growth for small and juvenile individuals implied by the von Bertalanffy and Gompertz growth models, respectively, and allows for indeterminate growth where necessary. An inverse-logistic model was used to estimate the expected mean growth increment for different black-lip abalone populations around southern Tasmania, Australia. Estimates of the time needed for abalone to grow from settlement until recruitment (at 138 mm shell length) into the fishery varied from eight to nine years. The variability of the residuals about the predicted mean growth increments was described with either a second inverse-logistic relationship (standard deviation vs. initial length) or by a power relationship (standard deviation vs. predicted growth increment). The inverse-logistic model can describe linear growth of small and juvenile abalone (as observed in Tasmania), as well as a spectrum of growth possibilities, from determinate to indeterminate growth (a spectrum that would lead to a spread of maximum lengths).

Sobrevida e fatores prognósticos em uma coorte hospitalar de pacientes com câncer de próstata localizado

O câncer de próstata é a neoplasia mais incidente entre os homens brasileiros. Atualmente, grande parte destes tumores é confinada à próstata no momento do diagnóstico. No entanto, muitos tumores clinicamente classificados como localizados não o são de fato, levando a indicações terapêuticas curativas não efetivas. Por outro lado, muitos pacientes com câncer sem significância clínica são tratados desnecessariamente em função da limitação prognóstica do estadiamento clínicos (pré-tratamento) de pacientes com diagnóstico histológico de adenocarcinoma de próstata localizado (estágios I e II), em coorte hospitalar composta por pacientes tratados no Instituto Nacional de Câncer, Rio de Janeiro, matriculados entre 1990 a 1999. As funções de sobrevida foram calculadas empregando-se o estimados de Kaplan-Meier tomando-se como início a data do diagnóstico histológico e como eventos os óbitos cuja causa básica foi o câncer de próstata. Para avaliação dos fatores prognósticos clínicos foram calculadas as hazard ratios (HR), com intervalos de confiança de 95%, seguindo-se o modelo de riscos proporcionais de Cox. Foram analisadas como fatores prognósticos independentes as variáveis: idade, cor, grau de instrução, data do primeiro tratamento, grau de diferenciação celular d o tumor primário biopsiado (Gleason), estadiamento clínico e PSA total pré-tratamento. O pressuposto dos riscos proporcionais foi avaliado pela análise dos resíduos de Schoenfeld e a influência de valores aberrantes pelos resíduos martingale e escore. Foram selecionados 258 pacientes pelos critérios de elegibilidade do estudo, dos quais 46 foram a óbito durante o período de seguimento. A sobrevida global foi de 88% em 5 anos e de 71% em 10 anos. Idade maior que 80 anos, classificação de Gleason maior que 6, PSA maior que 40ng/ml, estádio B2 e cor branca foram marcadores independentes de pior prognóstico. Fatores prognósticos clássicos na literatura foram úteis na estimativa do prognóstico nesta coorte hospitalar. Os resultados mostram que para pacientes diagnosticados em fases iniciais, os fatores sócio-econômico analisados, não influenciaram o prognóstico. Outros estudos devem ser conduzidos no país para investigar as diferenças no prognóstico em relação à etnia.

Management of wetland resources in the lower Mekong Basin: issues and future directions

The Lower Mekong Basin has extensive wetlands and these are being threatened by numerous problems. Most of these problems are interdependent and interact with one another. The lack of an appropriate definition of wetlands applicable to the region, pervasive inefficiencies and chronic lack of funds among riparian governments, and the poor appreciation of the true economic importance of wetlands and its resources are among the most prominent. The current definition, based on the Convention on Wetlands (Ramsar, Iran, 1971), is too broad when compared to the understanding of wetlands as being swamps, marshes and the like, and was developed specifically for wetlands with international importance as waterfowl habitats. Furthermore, wetlands are composed of different types of resources, which require different modes of management. Often, institutional competition, overlapping mandates and sometimes jealousies occur between government departments when they try to assert their authority on a particular wetland resource and use, and put forward their development plans without considering how these may conflict with other wetlands uses. Finally, effective wetland management requires reliable statistics or information on rate of harvest of natural resources such as fish and others, fishing/harvesting methods over time in order to determine the level of exploitation, and the status of the natural resources. This information is needed to identify opportunities for expansion, to establish historical trends, and to determine when management interventions are necessary to protect the resources from being overused by other developments. In order to address these issues, ICLARM - The World Fish Center has launched a project, the aim of objectives of which are described in this paper.

Mudanças de Estado e Multiplicadores Fiscais no Brasil entre 1999-2012

Este trabalho avalia o comportamento dos multiplicadores fiscais no Brasil entre 1999-2012. Para tanto, utiliza a metodologia desenvolvida por Sims, Waggoner e Zha (2008), que é um procedimento Bayesiano de estimação no qual os parâmetros do modelo mudam com alterações no estado da economia e os estados (regimes) seguem um processo de mudança de regime markoviano. Ou seja, foi estimado um modelo VAR Estrutural Bayesiano com mudança de regimes Markoviana (Markov Switching Structural Bayesian Vector Autoregression - MS-SBVAR). A base de dados é composta pelo consumo da administração pública, pela formação bruta de capital fixo da administração pública, pela carga tributária líquida e pelo Produto Interno Bruto (PIB), das três esferas do governo (federal, estadual, incluindo o Distrito Federal, e municipal). O software MATLAB/Dynare foi utilizado na estimação dos modelos e os resultados sugerem a ocorrência de 2 ou 3 regimes nos dois modelos que melhor se ajustaram aos dados. Os multiplicadores estimados apresentaram os sinais esperados e os diferentes tipos de multiplicadores fiscais calculados apresentaram valores maiores para a resposta do PIB a choques na formação bruta de capital fixo da administração pública que são eficazes, uma vez que possuem valores maiores do que um e impacto de longo prazo no PIB - quando comparado aos choques no consumo da administração pública, que possuem pouca persistência e são ineficazes (menores do que um), além de uma resposta negativa e persistente do PIB a choques na carga tributária líquida. Os resultados obtidos não indicam, ainda, multiplicadores fiscais maiores em regimes com maior variância nos resíduos do modelo.

Quantifying annual variation in catchability for commercial and research fishing

Biomass indices, from commercial catch per unit of effort (CPUE) or random trawl surveys, are commonly used in fisheries stock assessments. Uncertainty in such indices, often ex-pressed as a coefficient of variation (CV), has two components: observation error, and annual variation in catchability. Only the former can be estimated directly. As a result, the CVs used for these indices either ignore the annual-variation component or assume a value for it (often implicitly). Two types of data for New Zealand stocks were examined: 48 sets of residuals and catchability estimates from stock assessments using either CPUE or trawl survey indices; and biomass estimates from 17 time series of trawl surveys with between 4 and 25 species per time series. These data show clear evidence of significant annual variation in catchability. With the trawl survey data, catchability was detectably extreme for many species in about one year in six. The assessment data suggest that this annual variability typically has a CV of about 0.2. For commercial CPUE the variability is slightly less, and a typical total CV (including both components) of 0.15 to 0.2. This is much less than the values of 0.3 to 0.35 that have commonly been assumed in New Zealand. Some estimates of catchability are shown to be implausible.

La reproducción de la merluza en el Mar Argentino (Merlucciidae, Meluccius merluccius hubbsi) : 1. Descripción histológica del ciclo del ovario de merluza

The present paper deals on the histological description of the hake ovary made on the basis of gonad observations of 394 females during the period April 1966 March 1967. The material was obtained from weekly sampling of commercial catches carried out at the Institute of Marine Biology (Prov. Buenos Aires, Argentina). The anatomical and histological description of the standard ovary and the adopted terminology are given. The maturation process is divided into five periods, from ovocyte formation to yolked ovocyte formation, with its histological description. Ovary changes are analyzed on detail. The following conclusions were outlined: 1. Analysis demonstrated that although some specimens were totally spawned others, at the end of the spawning period, retaining a great number of ovocytes in different maturity stages. Therefore, postspawners have been classified as follows: Postspawned II : This stages is characterized by the empty ovarian structure, with ovocytes in stage II, which will remain in the resting phase untill next spawning season. Postspawned III and IV: Their main characteristics are: tissue destruction, bloody residuals and remaining ovocytes in stage III and IV, respectively. 2. Some transformations were found in ovaries of postspawned III and IV. They are classified as follows, according to its origin and structure: Developed from follicular cell membrane – a) Glandular formations, b) Epiteloid formations - Originated from remaining ovocytes, c) Ovocyte disintegration, d) Ovocyte with follicular cell infiltration. 3. All those structures derived from postpawners III and IV have a temporary character and will be reabsorbed. Their presence delay the recuperation of the organ and its reproductive functions. Consequently, the possibility of those structures acting as control mechanisms is suggested. 4. Transformations pointed out in paragraph Nº 2 prevent the possibility of consecutive spawning originated from the remaining ovocytes (II and IV). 5. No structures originated from postspawners III and IV were found during summer season. 6. Reproductive cycle of hake has been described monthly. It was observed that maturing ovaries predominate in summer (November-December).

Metrical dental analysis on golden monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana)

Dental variation in the Chinese golden monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana) is here evaluated by univariate, bivariate, and multivariate analyses. Allometric analyses indicate that canines and P3s are positively, but other dimensions negatively scaled to mandible and maxilla, and to body size. With the exception of the mesiodistal dimensions of I-1 and M-3, and the buccolingual dimension of Pq, mandibular dental variables show similar scaling relative to body size. Analysis of residuals shows that males have significantly larger canine, P-3 and buccolingual dimensions of the postcanine teeth (M-2 and M-3) than females. A significant difference in shape between the sexes is found in the buccolingual dimension of the upper teeth, but not in the mandible. Unlike the situation in some other species, Female golden monkeys do nor exhibit relatively larger postcanine teeth than males, in fact, the reverse is true, especially for M(2)s and M(3)s. The fact that most of the dental variables show low negative allometry to body size might be related a cold environment that has led to the development of larger body size with I-educed energy loss. When the raw data are examined by Discriminant Function Analysis the sexes are clearly distinguishable.

基于显式分形插值的高保真地震数据重建方法研究

Based on the fractal theories, contractive mapping principles as well as the fixed point theory, by means of affine transform, this dissertation develops a novel Explicit Fractal Interpolation Function（EFIF）which can be used to reconstruct the seismic data with high fidelity and precision. Spatial trace interpolation is one of the important issues in seismic data processing. Under the ideal circumstances, seismic data should be sampled with a uniform spatial coverage. However, practical constraints such as the complex surface conditions indicate that the sampling density may be sparse or for other reasons some traces may be lost. The wide spacing between receivers can result in sparse sampling along traverse lines, thus result in a spatial aliasing of short-wavelength features. Hence, the method of interpolation is of very importance. It not only needs to make the amplitude information obvious but the phase information, especially that of the point that the phase changes acutely. Many people put forward several interpolation methods, yet this dissertation focuses attention on a special class of fractal interpolation function, referred to as explicit fractal interpolation function to improve the accuracy of the interpolation reconstruction and to make the local information obvious. The traditional fractal interpolation method mainly based on the randomly Fractional Brown Motion (FBM) model, furthermore, the vertical scaling factor which plays a critical role in the implementation of fractal interpolation is assigned the same value during the whole interpolating process, so it can not make the local information obvious. In addition, the maximal defect of the traditional fractal interpolation method is that it cannot obtain the function values on each interpolating nodes, thereby it cannot analyze the node error quantitatively and cannot evaluate the feasibility of this method. Detailed discussions about the applications of fractal interpolation in seismology have not been given by the pioneers, let alone the interpolating processing of the single trace seismogram. On the basis of the previous work and fractal theory this dissertation discusses the fractal interpolation thoroughly and the stability of this special kind of interpolating function is discussed, at the same time the explicit presentation of the vertical scaling factor which controls the precision of the interpolation has been proposed. This novel method develops the traditional fractal interpolation method and converts the fractal interpolation with random algorithms into the interpolation with determined algorithms. The data structure of binary tree method has been applied during the process of interpolation, and it avoids the process of iteration that is inevitable in traditional fractal interpolation and improves the computation efficiency. To illustrate the validity of the novel method, this dissertation develops several theoretical models and synthesizes the common shot gathers and seismograms and reconstructs the traces that were erased from the initial section using the explicit fractal interpolation method. In order to compare the differences between the theoretical traces that were erased in the initial section and the resulting traces after reconstruction on waveform and amplitudes quantitatively, each missing traces are reconstructed and the residuals are analyzed. The numerical experiments demonstrate that the novel fractal interpolation method is not only applicable to reconstruct the seismograms with small offset but to the seismograms with large offset. The seismograms reconstructed by explicit fractal interpolation method resemble the original ones well. The waveform of the missing traces could be estimated very well and also the amplitudes of the interpolated traces are a good approximation of the original ones. The high precision and computational efficiency of the explicit fractal interpolation make it a useful tool to reconstruct the seismic data; it can not only make the local information obvious but preserve the overall characteristics of the object investigated. To illustrate the influence of the explicit fractal interpolation method to the accuracy of the imaging of the structure in the earth’s interior, this dissertation applies the method mentioned above to the reverse-time migration. The imaging sections obtained by using the fractal interpolated reflected data resemble the original ones very well. The numerical experiments demonstrate that even with the sparse sampling we can still obtain the high accurate imaging of the earth’s interior’s structure by means of the explicit fractal interpolation method. So we can obtain the imaging results of the earth’s interior with fine quality by using relatively small number of seismic stations. With the fractal interpolation method we will improve the efficiency and the accuracy of the reverse-time migration under economic conditions. To verify the application effect to real data of the method presented in this paper, we tested the method by using the real data provided by the Broadband Seismic Array Laboratory, IGGCAS. The results demonstrate that the accuracy of explicit fractal interpolation is still very high even with the real data with large epicenter and large offset. The amplitudes and the phase of the reconstructed station data resemble the original ones that were erased in the initial section very well. Altogether, the novel fractal interpolation function provides a new and useful tool to reconstruct the seismic data with high precision and efficiency, and presents an alternative to image the deep structure of the earth accurately.

太阳辐射对热层和电离层变化性的影响

Solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation at wavelengths less than 400 nm is an important source of energy for aeronomic processes throughout the solar system. Solar UV photons are absorbed in planetary atmospheres, as well as throughout the heliosphere, via photodissociation of molecules, photoionization of molecules and atoms, and photoexcitation toexcitation including resonance scattering. In this paper, the solar irradiances data measured by TIMED SEE, as well as the solar proxies such as F10.7 and Mg II, thermosphere neutral density of CHAMP measurements and topside ionospheric plasmas densities from DMSP, are used to analyze solar irradiance effects on the variabilities of the thermosphere and the ionosphere. First, thermosphere densities near 410 km altitude are analyzed for solar irradiance variability effects during the period 2002-2004. Correlations between the densities and the solar irradiances for different spectral lines and wavelength ranges reveal significantly different characteristics. The density correlates remarkably well with all the selected solar irradiances except the lower chromospheric O I (130.4 nm) emission. Among the chosen solar proxies, the Mg II core-to-wing ratio index, EUV (30-120 nm) and F10.7 show the highest correlations with the density for short-term (< ~27 days) variations. For both long- (> ~27 days) and short-term variations, linear correlation coefficients exhibit a decreasing trend from low latitudes towards high latitudes. The density variability can be effectively modeled (capturing 71% of the variance) using multiple solar irradiance indices, including F10.7, SEUV (the EUV 30-120 nm index), and SFUV (the FUV 120-193 nm index), in which a lag time of 1 day was used for both F10.7 and SEUV, and 5 days for SFUV. In our regression formulation SEUV has the largest contribution to the density variation (40%), with the F10.7 having the next largest contribution (32%) and SFUV accounting for the rest (28%). Furthermore, a pronounced period of about 27.2 days (mean period of the Sun's rotation) is present in both density and solar irradiance data of 2003 and 2004, and a pronounced period of about 54.4 days (doubled period of the solar rotation) is also revealed in 2004. However, soft X-ray and FUV irradiances did not present a pronounced 54.4 day period in 2004, in spite of their high correlation with the densities. The Ap index also shows 54-day periodicities in 2004, and magnetic activity, together with solar irradiance, affects the 54-day variation in density significantly. In addition, NRLMSISE00, DTM-2000 and JB2006 model predictions are compared with density measurements from CHAMP to assess their accuracy, and the results show that these models underestimate the response of the thermosphere to variations induced by solar rotation. Next, the equatorial topside ionospheric plasmas densities Ni are analyzed for solar irradiance variability effects during the period 2002-2005. Linear correlations between Ni and the solar irradiances for different wavelength ranges reveal significantly different characteristics. XUV (0-35 nm) and EUV (115-130 nm) show higher correlation with Ni for the long-term variations, whereas EUV (35-115 nm) show higher correlation for the short-term variations. Moreover, partial correlation analysis shows that the long-term variations of Ni are affected by both XUV (0-35 nm) and EUV (35-115 nm), whereas XUV (0-35 nm) play a more important role; the short-term variations of Ni are mostly affected by EUV (35-115 nm). Furthermore, a pronounced period of about 27 days is present in both Ni and solar irradiance data of 2003 and 2004, and a pronounced period of about 54 days is also revealed in 2004. Finally, prompted by previous studies that have suggested solar EUV radiation as a means of driving the semiannual variation, we investigate the intra-annual variation in thermosphere neutral density near 400 km during 2002-2005. The intra-annual variation, commonly referred to as the ‘semiannual variation’, is characterized by significant latitude structure, hemispheric asymmetries, and inter-annual variability. The magnitude of the maximum yearly difference, from the yearly minimum to the yearly maximum, varies by as much as 60% from year to year, and the phases of the minima and maxima also change by 20-40 days from year to year. Each annual harmonic of the intra-annual variation, namely, annual, semiannual, ter-annual and quatra-annual, exhibits a decreasing trend from 2002 through 2005 that is correlated with the decline in solar activity. In addition, some variations in these harmonics are correlated with geomagnetic activity, as represented by the daily mean value of Kp. Recent empirical models of the thermosphere are found to be deficient in capturing most of the latitude dependencies discovered in our data. In addition, the solar flux and geomagnetic activity proxies that we have employed do not capture some latitude and inter-annual variations detected in our data. It is possible that these variations are partly due to other effects, such as seasonal-latitudinal variations in turbopause altitude (and hence O/N2 composition) and ionosphere coupling processes that remain to be discovered in the context of influencing the intra-annual variations depicted here. Our results provide a new dataset to challenge and validate thermosphere-ionosphere general circulation models that seek to delineate the thermosphere intra-annual variation and to understand the various competing mechanisms that may contribute to its existence and variability. We furthermore suggest that the term “intra-annual” variation be adopted to describe the variability in thermosphere and ionosphere parameters that is well-captured through a superposition of annual, semiannual, ter-annual, and quatra-annual harmonic terms, and that “semiannual’ be used strictly in reference to a pure 6-monthly sinusoidal variation. Moreover, we propose the term “intra-seasonal” to refer to those shorter-term variations that arise as residuals from the above Fourier representation.

Template Matching: Matched Spatial Filters and Beyond

Template matching by means of cross-correlation is common practice in pattern recognition. However, its sensitivity to deformations of the pattern and the broad and unsharp peaks it produces are significant drawbacks. This paper reviews some results on how these shortcomings can be removed. Several techniques (Matched Spatial Filters, Synthetic Discriminant Functions, Principal Components Projections and Reconstruction Residuals) are reviewed and compared on a common task: locating eyes in a database of faces. New variants are also proposed and compared: least squares Discriminant Functions and the combined use of projections on eigenfunctions and the corresponding reconstruction residuals. Finally, approximation networks are introduced in an attempt to improve filter design by the introduction of nonlinearity.

On the Behavior of the Homogeneous Self-Dual Model for Conic Convex Optimization

There is a natural norm associated with a starting point of the homogeneous self-dual (HSD) embedding model for conic convex optimization. In this norm two measures of the HSD model’s behavior are precisely controlled independent of the problem instance: (i) the sizes of ε-optimal solutions, and (ii) the maximum distance of ε-optimal solutions to the boundary of the cone of the HSD variables. This norm is also useful in developing a stopping-rule theory for HSD-based interior-point methods such as SeDuMi. Under mild assumptions, we show that a standard stopping rule implicitly involves the sum of the sizes of the ε-optimal primal and dual solutions, as well as the size of the initial primal and dual infeasibility residuals. This theory suggests possible criteria for developing starting points for the homogeneous self-dual model that might improve the resulting solution time in practice

AberNile - Stay-Green Perennial Ryegrass

Groupement National Interprofessionnel des Semences et plantes pp. Sponsorship: Industry RAE2008