A geometric construction of travelling wave solutions to the Keller–Segel model

We study a version of the Keller–Segel model for bacterial chemotaxis, for which exact travelling wave solutions are explicitly known in the zero attractant diffusion limit. Using geometric singular perturbation theory, we construct travelling wave solutions in the small diffusion case that converge to these exact solutions in the singular limit.

An Artificial Neutral Network (ANN) model for predicting biodiesel kinetic viscosity as a function of temperature and chemical compositions

An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is a computational modeling tool which has found extensive acceptance in many disciplines for modeling complex real world problems. An ANN can model problems through learning by example, rather than by fully understanding the detailed characteristics and physics of the system. In the present study, the accuracy and predictive power of an ANN was evaluated in predicting kinetic viscosity of biodiesels over a wide range of temperatures typically encountered in diesel engine operation. In this model, temperature and chemical composition of biodiesel were used as input variables. In order to obtain the necessary data for model development, the chemical composition and temperature dependent fuel properties of ten different types of biodiesels were measured experimentally using laboratory standard testing equipments following internationally recognized testing procedures. The Neural Networks Toolbox of MatLab R2012a software was used to train, validate and simulate the ANN model on a personal computer. The network architecture was optimised following a trial and error method to obtain the best prediction of the kinematic viscosity. The predictive performance of the model was determined by calculating the absolute fraction of variance (R2), root mean squared (RMS) and maximum average error percentage (MAEP) between predicted and experimental results. This study found that ANN is highly accurate in predicting the viscosity of biodiesel and demonstrates the ability of the ANN model to find a meaningful relationship between biodiesel chemical composition and fuel properties at different temperature levels. Therefore the model developed in this study can be a useful tool in accurately predict biodiesel fuel properties instead of undertaking costly and time consuming experimental tests.

A finite volume method with linearisation in time for the solution of advection-reaction-diffusion systems

The numerical solution in one space dimension of advection--reaction--diffusion systems with nonlinear source terms may invoke a high computational cost when the presently available methods are used. Numerous examples of finite volume schemes with high order spatial discretisations together with various techniques for the approximation of the advection term can be found in the literature. Almost all such techniques result in a nonlinear system of equations as a consequence of the finite volume discretisation especially when there are nonlinear source terms in the associated partial differential equation models. This work introduces a new technique that avoids having such nonlinear systems of equations generated by the spatial discretisation process when nonlinear source terms in the model equations can be expanded in positive powers of the dependent function of interest. The basis of this method is a new linearisation technique for the temporal integration of the nonlinear source terms as a supplementation of a more typical finite volume method. The resulting linear system of equations is shown to be both accurate and significantly faster than methods that necessitate the use of solvers for nonlinear system of equations.

Mechanism based emulation of dynamic simulation models : concept and application in hydrology

Many model-based investigation techniques, such as sensitivity analysis, optimization, and statistical inference, require a large number of model evaluations to be performed at different input and/or parameter values. This limits the application of these techniques to models that can be implemented in computationally efficient computer codes. Emulators, by providing efficient interpolation between outputs of deterministic simulation models, can considerably extend the field of applicability of such computationally demanding techniques. So far, the dominant techniques for developing emulators have been priors in the form of Gaussian stochastic processes (GASP) that were conditioned with a design data set of inputs and corresponding model outputs. In the context of dynamic models, this approach has two essential disadvantages: (i) these emulators do not consider our knowledge of the structure of the model, and (ii) they run into numerical difficulties if there are a large number of closely spaced input points as is often the case in the time dimension of dynamic models. To address both of these problems, a new concept of developing emulators for dynamic models is proposed. This concept is based on a prior that combines a simplified linear state space model of the temporal evolution of the dynamic model with Gaussian stochastic processes for the innovation terms as functions of model parameters and/or inputs. These innovation terms are intended to correct the error of the linear model at each output step. Conditioning this prior to the design data set is done by Kalman smoothing. This leads to an efficient emulator that, due to the consideration of our knowledge about dominant mechanisms built into the simulation model, can be expected to outperform purely statistical emulators at least in cases in which the design data set is small. The feasibility and potential difficulties of the proposed approach are demonstrated by the application to a simple hydrological model.

New suburbs in the making? Locating master planned estates in a comparative analysis of suburbs in South-East Queensland

In urban scholarship Master Planned Estates (MPEs) are viewed as illustrative of broader changes to the urban environment and characterised as homogenous, affluent enclaves where community life is largely orchestrated by the developer. Yet no study has fully considered if, and to what extent, MPEs can be distinguished from other suburb types in terms of their residential composition and their levels of sociability and community attachment. In this article, we empirically test if MPEs are different from ‘conventional’ suburbs by examining them structurally in terms of their demographic and socio-economic characteristics, as well as in terms of their key community social processes. Using data from a 2008 study of 148 suburbs across Brisbane, Australia (which includes data from two MPEs), we undertake a comparative analysis of suburbs and examine the density of neighbour networks, residents' reports of place attachment and cohesion and neighbourly contact in MPEs compared to other residential suburbs. Our findings suggest that MPEs are not distinct in terms of their degree of homogeneity and socio-economic characteristics, but that connections among residents are lower than other suburbs despite—or perhaps because of—the active interventions of the developer.

Violence in and around entertainment districts : a longitudinal analysis of the impact of late-night lockout legislation

Violence in entertainment districts is a major problem across urban landscapes throughout the world. Research shows that licensed premises are the third most common location for homicides and serious assaults, accounting for one in ten fatal and nonfatal assaults. One class of interventions that aims to reduce violence in entertainment districts involves the use of civil remedies: a group of strategies that use civil or regulatory measures as legal “levers” to reduce problem behavior. One specific civil remedy used to reduce problematic behavior in entertainment districts involves manipulation of licensed premise trading hours. This article uses generalized linear models to analyze the impact of lockout legislation on recorded violent offences in two entertainment districts in the Australian state of Queensland. Our research shows that 3 a.m. lockout legislation led to a direct and significant reduction in the number of violent incidents inside licensed premises. Indeed, the lockouts cut the level of violent crime inside licensed premises by half. Despite these impressive results for the control of violence inside licensed premises, we found no evidence that the lockout had any impact on violence on streets and footpaths outside licensed premises that were the site for more than 80 percent of entertainment district violence. Overall, however, our analysis suggests that lockouts are an important mechanism that helps to control the level of violence inside licensed premises but that finely grained contextual responses to alcohol-related problems are needed rather than one-size-fits-all solutions.

Leadership in problem-oriented policing

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of leadership in problem-oriented policing (POP). Design/methodology/approach – This paper uses interrupted time series models to isolate the impact on crime trends of a transformational leader's efforts to spearhead the implementation of a program of POP, called the problem solving model (PSM), in a southern state in Australia. Findings – This paper finds that the PSM led directly to an impact on overall crime, with a significant reduction in crimes per 100,000 persons per year after the introduction of the PSM. The majority of the overall crime drop attributable to implementation of POP was driven by reductions in property crime. It was noted that the leadership influence of the PSM was not effective in reducing all types of crime. Crimes against the person where not affected by the introduction of the PSM and public nuisance crimes largely followed the forecasted, upward trajectory. Practical implications – The driver behind the PSM was Commissioner Hyde and the success of the PSM is largely attributable to his strong commitment to transformational leadership and a top-down approach to implementation. These qualities encapsulate the original ideas behind POP that Goldstein (1979, 2003), back in 1979, highlighted as critical for the success of future POP programs. Social implications – Reducing crime is an important part of creating safe communities and improving quality of life for all citizens. This research shows that successful implementation of the PSM within South Australia under the strong leadership of Commissioner Hyde was a major factor in reducing property crime and overall crime rates. Originality/value – This paper is valuable because it demonstrates the link between strong leadership in policing, the commissioner's vision for POP and how his vision then translated into widespread adoption of POP. The study empirically shows that the statewide adoption of POP led to significant reductions in crime, particularly property crime.

Non-response bias in randomized control experiments in criminology : putting the Queensland Community Engagement Trial (QCET) under a microscope

Objectives The goal of this article is to examine whether or not the results of the Queensland Community Engagement Trial (QCET)-a randomized controlled trial that tested the impact of procedural justice policing on citizen attitudes toward police-were affected by different types of nonresponse bias. Method We use two methods (Cochrane and Elffers methods) to explore nonresponse bias: First, we assess the impact of the low response rate by examining the effects of nonresponse group differences between the experimental and control conditions and pooled variance under different scenarios. Second, we assess the degree to which item response rates are influenced by the control and experimental conditions. Results Our analysis of the QCET data suggests that our substantive findings are not influenced by the low response rate in the trial. The results are robust even under extreme conditions, and statistical significance of the results would only be compromised in cases where the pooled variance was much larger for the nonresponse group and the difference between experimental and control conditions was greatly diminished. We also find that there were no biases in the item response rates across the experimental and control conditions. Conclusion RCTs that involve field survey responses-like QCET-are potentially compromised by low response rates and how item response rates might be influenced by the control or experimental conditions. Our results show that the QCET results were not sensitive to the overall low response rate across the experimental and control conditions and the item response rates were not significantly different across the experimental and control groups. Overall, our analysis suggests that the results of QCET are robust and any biases in the survey responses do not significantly influence the main experimental findings.

Visualization of predictive distributions for discrete spatial-temporal log Cox processes approximated with MCMC

An important aspect of decision support systems involves applying sophisticated and flexible statistical models to real datasets and communicating these results to decision makers in interpretable ways. An important class of problem is the modelling of incidence such as fire, disease etc. Models of incidence known as point processes or Cox processes are particularly challenging as they are ‘doubly stochastic’ i.e. obtaining the probability mass function of incidents requires two integrals to be evaluated. Existing approaches to the problem either use simple models that obtain predictions using plug-in point estimates and do not distinguish between Cox processes and density estimation but do use sophisticated 3D visualization for interpretation. Alternatively other work employs sophisticated non-parametric Bayesian Cox process models, but do not use visualization to render interpretable complex spatial temporal forecasts. The contribution here is to fill this gap by inferring predictive distributions of Gaussian-log Cox processes and rendering them using state of the art 3D visualization techniques. This requires performing inference on an approximation of the model on a discretized grid of large scale and adapting an existing spatial-diurnal kernel to the log Gaussian Cox process context.

Ethnic diversity and its impact on community social cohesion and neighborly exchange

Putnam's “constrict theory” suggests that ethnic diversity creates challenges for developing and sustaining social capital in urban settings. He argues that diversity decreases social cohesion and reduces social interactions among community residents. While Putnam's thesis is the subject of much debate in North America, the United Kingdom, and Europe, there is a limited focus on how ethnic diversity impacts upon social cohesion and neighborly exchange behaviors in Australia. Employing multilevel modeling and utilizing administrative and survey data from 4,000 residents living in 148 Brisbane suburbs, we assess whether ethnic diversity lowers social cohesion and increases “hunkering.” Our findings indicate that social cohesion and neighborly exchange are attenuated in ethnically diverse suburbs. However, diversity is less consequential for neighborly exchange among immigrants when compared to the general population. Our results provide at least partial support for Putnam's thesis.

An additive model for spatio-temporal smoothing of cancer mortality rates

In this paper, a Bayesian hierarchical model is used to anaylze the female breast cancer mortality rates for the State of Missouri from 1969 through 2001. The logit transformations of the mortality rates are assumed to be linear over the time with additive spatial and age effects as intercepts and slopes. Objective priors of the hierarchical model are explored. The Bayesian estimates are quite robustness in terms change of the hyperparamaters. The spatial correlations are appeared in both intercepts and slopes.