Boosting the effects of a curriculum based injury prevention program through a school connectedness intervention : final report to NRMA-ACT Road Safety Trust

Injury is the leading cause of death among young people (AIHW, 2008). A primary contributing factor to injury among adolescents is risk taking behaviour, including road related risks such as risky bicycle and motorcycle use and riding with dangerous or drink-drivers. Injury rates increase dramatically throughout adolescence, at the same time as adolescents are becoming more involved in risk taking behaviour. Also throughout this period, adolescents‟ connectedness to school is decreasing (Monahan, Oesterle & Hawkins, 2010; Whitlock, 2004). School connectedness refers to „the extent to which students feel personally accepted, respected, included, and supported by others in the school‟ (Goodenow, 1993, p. 80), and has been repeatedly shown to be a critical protective factor in adolescent development. For example, school connectedness has been shown to be associated with decreased risk taking behaviour, including violence and alcohol and other drug use (e.g., Resnick et al., 1997), as well as with decreased transport risk taking and vehicle related injuries (Chapman et al., accepted April 2011). This project involved the pilot evaluation of a school connectedness intervention (a professional development program for teachers) to reduce adolescent risk taking behaviour and injury. This intervention has been developed for use as a component of the Skills for Preventing Injury in Youth (SPIY) curriculum based injury prevention program for early adolescents. The objectives of this research were to: 1. Implement a trial School Connectedness intervention (professional development program for teachers) in ACT high schools, and evaluate using comparison high schools. 2. Determine whether the School Connectedness program impacts on adolescent risk taking behaviour and associated injuries (particularly transport risks and injuries). 3. Evaluate the process effectiveness of the School Connectedness program.

Prevalence and visual risk factors for falls in bilateral cataract patients in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Purpose To determine the prevalence of falls in the 12 months prior to cataract surgery and examine the associations between visual and other risk factors and falls among older bilateral cataract patients in Vietnam. Methods Data collected from 413 patients in the week before scheduled cataract surgery included a questionnaire and three objective visual tests. Results The outcome of interest was self-reported falls in the previous 12 months. A total of 13% (n = 53) of bilateral cataract patients reported 60 falls within the previous 12 months. After adjusting for age, sex, race, employment status, comorbidities, medication usage, refractive management, living status and the three objective visual tests in the worse eye, women (odds ratio, OR, 4.64, 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.85–11.66), and those who lived alone (OR 4.51, 95% CI 1.44–14.14) were at increased risk of a fall. Those who reported a comorbidity were at decreased risk of a fall (OR 0.43, 95% CI 0.19–0.95). Contrast sensitivity (OR 0.31, 95% CI 0.10–0.95) was the only significant visual test associated with a fall. These results were similar for the better eye, except the presence of a comorbidity was not significant (OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.20–1.02). Again, contrast sensitivity was the only significant visual factor associated with a fall (OR 0.15, 95% CI 0.04–0.53). Conclusion Bilateral cataract patients in Vietnam are potentially at high risk of falls and in need of falls prevention interventions. It may also be important for ophthalmologists and health professionals to consider contrast sensitivity measures when prioritizing cataract patients for surgery and assessing their risk of falls.

Incidence of paediatric fatal and non-fatal low speed vehicle run over events in Queensland, Australia : eleven year analysis

Background The purpose of this study was to estimate the incidence of fatal and non-fatal Low Speed Vehicle Run Over (LSVRO) events among children aged 0–15 years in Queensland, Australia, at a population level. Methods Fatal and non-fatal LSVRO events that occurred in children resident in Queensland over eleven calendar years (1999-2009) were identified using ICD codes, text description, word searches and medical notes clarification, obtained from five health related data bases across the continuum of care (pre-hospital to fatality). Data were manually linked. Population data provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics were used to calculate crude incidence rates for fatal and non-fatal LSVRO events. Results There were 1611 LSVROs between 1999–2009 (IR = 16.87/100,000/annum). Incidence of non-fatal events (IR = 16.60/100,000/annum) was 61.5 times higher than fatal events (IR = 0.27/100,000/annum). LSVRO events were more common in boys (IR = 20.97/100,000/annum) than girls (IR = 12.55/100,000/annum), and among younger children aged 0–4 years (IR = 21.45/100000/annum; 39% or all events) than older children (5–9 years: IR = 16.47/100,000/annum; 10–15 years IR = 13.59/100,000/annum). A total of 896 (56.8%) children were admitted to hospital for 24 hours of more following an LSVRO event (IR = 9.38/100,000/annum). Total LSVROs increased from 1999 (IR = 14.79/100,000) to 2009 (IR = 18.56/100,000), but not significantly. Over the 11 year period, there was a slight (non –significant) increase in fatalities (IR = 0.37-0.42/100,000/annum); a significant decrease in admissions (IR = 12.39–5.36/100,000/annum), and significant increase in non-admissions (IR = 2.02-12.77/100,000/annum). Trends over time differed by age, gender and severity. Conclusion This is the most comprehensive, population-based epidemiological study on fatal and non-fatal LSVRO events to date. Results from this study indicate that LSVROs incur a substantial burden. Further research is required on the characteristics and risk factors associated with these events, in order to adequately inform injury prevention. Strategies are urgently required in order to prevent these events, especially among young children aged 0-4 years.

Managing risk in process-aware information systems

This research contributes a fully-operational approach for managing business process risk in near real-time. The approach consists of a language for defining risks on top of process models, a technique to detect such risks as they eventuate during the execution of business processes, a recommender system for making risk-informed decisions, and a technique to automatically mitigate the detected risks when they are no longer tolerable. Through the incorporation of risk management elements in all stages of the lifecycle of business processes, this work contributes to the effective integration of the fields of Business Process Management and Risk Management.

Risk management and high reliability : a case study of Australian airport management

This thesis investigated risk management and organisational reliability in airports from the perspective of complex sociotechnical systems (CSSs). Two research studies were undertaken, the first focusing on the processes by which disruptive events occur, are detected and responded to; the second exploring the presence of organisational reliability traits within airports. A key result of the studies was the development of new approach: the Critical Incident Disturbance Process model that detailed a means to understand and analyse how disruptions in complex CSSs might be influenced by vulnerability reduction and enhanced risk management. Further, this thesis identified and defined the concept of 'compartmentalised reliability' in complex sociotechnical systems, extending existing knowledge of high reliability theory.

Corporate credit risk prediction under stochastic volatility and jumps

This paper examines the impact of allowing for stochastic volatility and jumps (SVJ) in a structural model on corporate credit risk prediction. The results from a simulation study verify the better performance of the SVJ model compared with the commonly used Merton model, and three sources are provided to explain the superiority. The empirical analysis on two real samples further ascertains the importance of recognizing the stochastic volatility and jumps by showing that the SVJ model decreases bias in spread prediction from the Merton model, and better explains the time variation in actual CDS spreads. The improvements are found particularly apparent in small firms or when the market is turbulent such as the recent financial crisis.

Banking sector contingent liabilities and sovereign risk

The global financial crisis has underscored the need to pay attention to contingent government liabilities that could arise from bank failures for sovereign risk management. This paper proposes a simple method to construct a contingent liability index (CLI) for a banking sector that takes into account the size and concentration of the banking system, market expectations of bank defaults, and perceptions of government support to each bank. This method allows us to track potential government liabilities related to bank failures for 32 advanced and emerging economies on a monthly basis from 2006 to 2013. Furthermore, we find that the CLI is a significant determinant of sovereign CDS spreads. Our results suggest that a 1 percentage point increase in the CLI is associated with an increase in sovereign CDS spreads by 24 basis points for advanced economies and 75 basis points for emerging markets on average.

Serosorting may increase the risk of HIV acquisition among men who have sex with men

Background: Serosorting, the practice of seeking to engage in unprotected anal intercourse with partners of the same HIV status as oneself, has been increasing among men who have sex with men. However, the effectiveness of serosorting as a strategy to reduce HIV risk is unclear, especially since it depends on the frequency of HIV testing. Methods: We estimated the relative risk of HIV acquisition associated with serosorting compared with not serosorting by using a mathematical model, informed by detailed behavioral data from a highly studied cohort of gay men. Results: We demonstrate that serosorting is unlikely to be highly beneficial in many populations of men who have sex with men, especially where the prevalence of undiagnosed HIV infections is relatively high. We find that serosorting is only beneficial in reducing the relative risk of HIV transmission if the prevalence of undiagnosed HIV infections is less than ∼20% and ∼40%, in populations of high (70%) and low (20%) treatment rates, respectively, even though treatment reduces the absolute risk of HIV transmission. Serosorting can be expected to lead to increased risk of HIV acquisition in many settings. In settings with low HIV testing rates serosorting can more than double the risk of HIV acquisition. Conclusions: Therefore caution should be taken before endorsing the practice of serosorting. It is very important to continue promotion of frequent HIV testing and condom use, particularly among people at high risk.