Rational speculative bubbles: an empirical investigation of the London Stock Exchange

In recent years, a sharp divergence of London Stock Exchange equity prices from dividends has been noted. In this paper, we examine whether this divergence can be explained by reference to the existence of a speculative bubble. Three different empirical methodologies are used: variance bounds tests, bubble specification tests, and cointegration tests based on both ex post and ex ante data. We find that, stock prices diverged significantly from their fundamental values during the late 1990's, and that this divergence has all the characteristics of a bubble.

The control of dynamical systems by neural networks

In this paper the use of neural networks for the control of dynamical systems is considered. Both identification and feedback control aspects are discussed as well as the types of system for which neural networks can provide a useful technique. Multi-layer Perceptron and Radial Basis function neural network types are looked at, with an emphasis on the latter. It is shown how basis function centre selection is a critical part of the implementation process and that multivariate clustering algorithms can be an extremely useful tool for finding centres.

Combined oral contraceptive pills containing desogestrel or drospirenone enhance large vessel and microvasculature vasodilation in healthy premenopausal women

OBJECTIVE: To determine the effects of different COCs on endothelial function. BACKGROUND: COCs all contain ethinylestradiol, but different progestins; three of the more common progestins are DSG, LN, and DR. Ethinylestradiol enhances some measures of vascular reactivity, but certain progestins may increase risk of vascular diseases and impair endothelial vasodilation. METHODS: Twenty-nine healthy women taking COCs containing 30 μg ethinylestradiol and 150 μg DSG (Marvelon, n = 10), 150 μg LN (Microgynon, n = 10), or 3 mg DR (Yasmin, n = 9) had their vascular reactivity measured using various techniques during their pill-free week (days 5-7) and the third week of active pills (days 26-28). A reference group (n = 10) underwent the same measurements on two consecutive cycles. RESULTS: FMD and LDI were significantly higher during active-pill visits than pill-free visits in women taking DSG and DR (p < 0.02), but not in women taking LN. There were no differences between the duplicate measures in the reference group. CONCLUSIONS: COCs containing 150 μg DSG or 3 mg DR significantly increase endothelium-dependent vasodilation in both large vessels and peripheral microvasculature. These effects may be due to the progestins exhibiting differential effects on eNOS expression.

Coppicing shifts CO2 stimulation of poplar productivity to above-ground pools: a synthesis of leaf to stand level results from the POP/EUROFACE experiment

A poplar short rotation coppice (SRC) grown for the production of bioenergy can combine carbon (C) storage with fossil fuel substitution. Here, we summarize the responses of a poplar (Populus) plantation to 6 yr of free air CO2 enrichment (POP/EUROFACE consisting of two rotation cycles). We show that a poplar plantation growing in nonlimiting light, nutrient and water conditions will significantly increase its productivity in elevated CO2 concentrations ([CO2]). Increased biomass yield resulted from an early growth enhancement and photosynthesis did not acclimate to elevated [CO2]. Sufficient nutrient availability, increased nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) and the large sink capacity of poplars contributed to the sustained increase in C uptake over 6 yr. Additional C taken up in high [CO2] was mainly invested into woody biomass pools. Coppicing increased yield by 66% and partly shifted the extra C uptake in elevated [CO2] to above-ground pools, as fine root biomass declined and its [CO2] stimulation disappeared. Mineral soil C increased equally in ambient and elevated [CO2] during the 6 yr experiment. However, elevated [CO2] increased the stabilization of C in the mineral soil. Increased productivity of a poplar SRC in elevated [CO2] may allow shorter rotation cycles, enhancing the viability of SRC for biofuel production.

Predictability of the western North Pacific summer climate demonstrated by the coupled models of ENSEMBLES

The Asian monsoon system, including the western North Pacific (WNP), East Asian, and Indian monsoons, dominates the climate of the Asia-Indian Ocean-Pacific region, and plays a significant role in the global hydrological and energy cycles. The prediction of monsoons and associated climate features is a major challenge in seasonal time scale climate forecast. In this study, a comprehensive assessment of the interannual predictability of the WNP summer climate has been performed using the 1-month lead retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) of five state-of-the-art coupled models from ENSEMBLES for the period of 1960–2005. Spatial distribution of the temporal correlation coefficients shows that the interannual variation of precipitation is well predicted around the Maritime Continent and east of the Philippines. The high skills for the lower-tropospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) spread over almost the whole WNP. These results indicate that the models in general successfully predict the interannual variation of the WNP summer climate. Two typical indices, the WNP summer precipitation index and the WNP lower-tropospheric circulation index (WNPMI), have been used to quantify the forecast skill. The correlation coefficient between five models’ multi-model ensemble (MME) mean prediction and observations for the WNP summer precipitation index reaches 0.66 during 1979–2005 while it is 0.68 for the WNPMI during 1960–2005. The WNPMI-regressed anomalies of lower-tropospheric winds, SSTs and precipitation are similar between observations and MME. Further analysis suggests that prediction reliability of the WNP summer climate mainly arises from the atmosphere–ocean interaction over the tropical Indian and the tropical Pacific Ocean, implying that continuing improvement in the representation of the air–sea interaction over these regions in CGCMs is a key for long-lead seasonal forecast over the WNP and East Asia. On the other hand, the prediction of the WNP summer climate anomalies exhibits a remarkable spread resulted from uncertainty in initial conditions. The summer anomalies related to the prediction spread, including the lower-tropospheric circulation, SST and precipitation anomalies, show a Pacific-Japan or East Asia-Pacific pattern in the meridional direction over the WNP. Our further investigations suggest that the WNPMI prediction spread arises mainly from the internal dynamics in air–sea interaction over the WNP and Indian Ocean, since the local relationships among the anomalous SST, circulation, and precipitation associated with the spread are similar to those associated with the interannual variation of the WNPMI in both observations and MME. However, the magnitudes of these anomalies related to the spread are weaker, ranging from one third to a half of those anomalies associated with the interannual variation of the WNPMI in MME over the tropical Indian Ocean and subtropical WNP. These results further support that the improvement in the representation of the air–sea interaction over the tropical Indian Ocean and subtropical WNP in CGCMs is a key for reducing the prediction spread and for improving the long-lead seasonal forecast over the WNP and East Asia.

A theory of rational spatial agglomerations

We model the behavior of rational forward-looking agents in a spatial economy. The economic geography structure is built on Fujita et al. (1999)'s racetrack economy. Workers choose optimally what to consume at each period, as well as which spatial itinerary to follow in the geographical space. The spatial extent of the resulting agglomerations increases with the taste for variety and the expenditure share on manufactured goods, and decreases with transport costs. Because forward-looking agents anticipate the future formation of agglomerations, they are more responsive to spatial utility differentials than myopic agents. As a consequence, the emerging agglomerations are larger under perfect foresight spatial adjustments than under myopic ones.

Efficient production of foot-and-mouth disease virus empty capsids in insect cells following down regulation of 3C protease activity

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is a significant economically and distributed globally pathogen of Artiodactyla. Current vaccines are chemically inactivated whole virus particles that require large-scale virus growth in strict bio-containment with the associated risks of accidental release or incomplete inactivation. Non-infectious empty capsids are structural mimics of authentic particles with no associated risk and constitute an alternate vaccine candidate. Capsids self-assemble from the processed virus structural proteins, VP0, VP3 and VP1, which are released from the structural protein precursor P1-2A by the action of the virus-encoded 3C protease. To date recombinant empty capsid assembly has been limited by poor expression levels, restricting the development of empty capsids as a viable vaccine. Here expression of the FMDV structural protein precursor P1-2A in insect cells is shown to be efficient but linkage of the cognate 3C protease to the C-terminus reduces expression significantly. Inactivation of the 3C enzyme in a P1-2A-3C cassette allows expression and intermediate levels of 3C activity resulted in efficient processing of the P1-2A precursor into the structural proteins which assembled into empty capsids. Expression was independent of the insect host cell background and leads to capsids that are recognised as authentic by a range of anti-FMDV bovine sera suggesting their feasibility as an alternate vaccine.

The influence of powdery mildew infection on photosynthesis, chlorophyll fluorescence, leaf chlorophyll and carotenoid content of three woody plant species

The effect of powdery mildew development on photosynthesis, chlorophyll fluorescence, leaf chlorophyll and carotenoid concentrations on three woody plants frequently planted in urban environments was studied. Rates of photosynthetic CO2 fixation were rapidly reduced in two of the three genotypes tested prior to visible signs of infection. Effects on chlorophyll fluorescence (Fo, Fv/Fo, Fv/Fm), leaf chlorophyll and carotenoid content were not manifest until >25 per cent of the leaf area was observed to be covered by mycelial growth indicating reduced photo-synthetic rates during the early stages of infection were not due to degradation of the leaf chloroplast structure. Observation of the fluorescence transient (OJIP curves) showed powdery mildew infection impairs photosynthetic electron transport system by reducing the size but not heterogeneity of the plastoquninone pool, effecting both the acceptor and donor side of photosystem II. Impairment of the photosynthetic electron transport system was reflected by reduced values of a performance index used in this investigation as a measure of photochemical events within photosystem II electron transport. In addition interpretation of the fluorescence data indicated powdery mildew infection may impair the photo-protective process that facilitates the dissipation of excess energy within leaf tissue.

Children of the revolution: fathers and sons in antifascist DEFA films

The article looks at three antifascist films from the 1980s by the East German film company DEFA: Jürgen Brauer's Pugowitza (1981), Egon Schlegel's Die Schüsse der Arche Noah (1983), and Helmut Dziuba's Jan auf der Zille (1986), which during this final decade of the East German state re-examine an ideologically seminal constellation of the GDR's official antifascism – the relationship between antifascist father and son. Linking generational and political succession, the father-son relationship helped to legitimise the GDR as a state in which the young continued the antifascist fight of the old communists against the Nazi dictatorship. From the 1950s on, DEFA films contributed to the visualisation of this relationship, codifying it not only as heroic but also as ‘natural’: the assumed innocence of the communist son was meant to naturalise the father's antifascist/communist cause. The 1980s saw this naturalised political succession questioned. By re-telling the canonised father-son story, the three films visualise the generational antifascist contract as flawed. Re-deploying the son's assumed innocence in a critique of the father, they explore new endings to the antifascist story and revive the discussion of categories like ‘victim’ and ‘perpetrator’.// Der Aufsatz untersucht drei antifaschistische Filme der ostdeutschen Filmgesellschaft DEFA aus den 1980er Jahren: Jürgen Brauers Pugowitza (1981), Egon Schlegels Die Schüsse der Arche Noah (1983) und Helmut Dziubas Jan auf der Zille (1986). Alle drei Filme wurden im letzten Jahrzehnt der DDR gedreht und greifen eine ideologisch tragende Konstellation des offiziellen DDR-Antifaschismus auf – die Beziehung zwischen antifaschistischem Vater und Sohn. In der Vater-Sohn-Beziehung verband sich Generationenabfolge mit politischer Nachkommenschaft, eine Verbindung, die half, die DDR als einen Staat zu legitimieren, in dem die Jungen den antifaschistischen Kampf der alten Kommunisten gegen die Nazi-Diktatur weiterführten. Seit den 1950er Jahren beteiligte sich die DEFA an der Visuali-sierung dieser Beziehung und kodifizierte sie nicht nur als heldenhaft, sondern auch als ‘natürlich’: die behauptete Unschuld der kommunistschen Söhne diente dazu, den antifaschistisch-kommunistischen Kampf der Väter zu naturalisieren. Die solcher Art politisch interpretierte Generationenabfolge verlor ihre Natürlichkeit, als sie in den 1980er Jahren kritisch befragt wurde. Im nochmaligen Erzählen der kanonisierten Vater-Sohn-Geschichte wird die Brüchigkeit des antifaschistischen Gesellschaftsvertrags in allen drei Filmen sichtbar. Die vermeintliche Unschuld der Söhne wird nun zu einer Kritik der Väter genutzt, wobei die Filme ein neues Ende für die antifaschistische Geschichte erkunden und die Debatte über Kategorien wie ‘Opfer’ und ‘Täter’ wieder aufnehmen.