Wykorzystanie gier decyzyjnych/symulacyjnych w naukach społecznych. Wybrane problemy

Treścią publikacji jest przedstawienie wybranych problemów prognozowania w naukach społecznych. W artykule skoncentrowano się na metodzie gier decyzyjnych/symulacyjnych, które – zwłaszcza wraz z rozwojem teorii gier oraz komputerów – są coraz częściej wykorzystywane w wielu dziedzinach. Na wybranych przykładach gier decyzyjnych/symulacyjnych – Poznań International Model United Nations 2013/POZiMUN; S.E.N.S.E. a także gry sieciowej EVE Online – wskazano jak ważne są takie ćwiczenia, by móc precyzyjniej przewidywać przyszłość. Zwrócono także szczególną uwagę na kwestię przypadku oraz czynników zakłócających, które mogą destabilizować proces przewidywania. Poruszono ponadto problem podejmowania decyzji w aspekcie klasycznej oraz kwantowej logiki.

Documentos técnicos de la propuesta para el mejoramiento tecnológico de la cerámica artesanal en la Chamba – Tolima en los procesos de extracción/beneficio de materias primas, fabricación y cocción de las piezas.

190 hojas : ilustraciones.

Healing, Praying, Preaching

sermon text; MS Word document

Development and assessment of new sensor systems in food packaging applications

The use of optical sensor technology for non-invasive determination of key quality pack parameters improved package/product quality. This technology can be used for optimization of packaging processes, improvement of product shelf-life and maintenance of quality. In recent years, there has been a major focus on O2 and CO2 sensor development as these are key gases used in modified atmosphere packaging (MAP) of food. The first and second experimental chapters (chapter 2 and 3) describe the development of O2, pH and CO2 solid state sensors and its (potential) use for food packaging applications. A dual-analyte sensor for dissolved O2 and pH with one bi-functional reporter dye (meso-substituted Pd- or Ptporphyrin) embedded in plasticized PVC membrane was developed in chapter 2. The developed CO2 sensor in chapter 3 was comprised of a phosphorescent reporter dye Pt(II)- tetrakis(pentafluorophenyl) porphyrin (PtTFPP) and a colourimetric pH indicator α-naphtholphthalein (NP) incorporated in a plastic matrix together with a phase transfer agent tetraoctyl- or cetyltrimethylammonium hydroxide (TOA-OH or CTA-OH). The third experimental chapter, chapter 4, described the development of liquid O2 sensors for rapid microbiological determination which are important for improvement and assurance of food safety systems. This automated screening assay produced characteristic profiles with a sharp increase in fluorescence above the baseline level at a certain threshold time (TT) which can be correlated with their initial microbial load and was applied to various raw fish and horticultural samples. Chapter 5, the fourth experimental chapter, reported upon the successful application of developed O2 and CO2 sensors for quality assessment of MAP mushrooms during storage for 7 days at 4°C.

Secure architectures for pairing based public key cryptography

Along with the growing demand for cryptosystems in systems ranging from large servers to mobile devices, suitable cryptogrophic protocols for use under certain constraints are becoming more and more important. Constraints such as calculation time, area, efficiency and security, must be considered by the designer. Elliptic curves, since their introduction to public key cryptography in 1985 have challenged established public key and signature generation schemes such as RSA, offering more security per bit. Amongst Elliptic curve based systems, pairing based cryptographies are thoroughly researched and can be used in many public key protocols such as identity based schemes. For hardware implementions of pairing based protocols, all components which calculate operations over Elliptic curves can be considered. Designers of the pairing algorithms must choose calculation blocks and arrange the basic operations carefully so that the implementation can meet the constraints of time and hardware resource area. This thesis deals with different hardware architectures to accelerate the pairing based cryptosystems in the field of characteristic two. Using different top-level architectures the hardware efficiency of operations that run at different times is first considered in this thesis. Security is another important aspect of pairing based cryptography to be considered in practically Side Channel Analysis (SCA) attacks. The naively implemented hardware accelerators for pairing based cryptographies can be vulnerable when taking the physical analysis attacks into consideration. This thesis considered the weaknesses in pairing based public key cryptography and addresses the particular calculations in the systems that are insecure. In this case, countermeasures should be applied to protect the weak link of the implementation to improve and perfect the pairing based algorithms. Some important rules that the designers must obey to improve the security of the cryptosystems are proposed. According to these rules, three countermeasures that protect the pairing based cryptosystems against SCA attacks are applied. The implementations of the countermeasures are presented and their performances are investigated.

Leadership, fairness and gender: a practitioner's perspective

This Portfolio of Exploration outlines the course of learning by a practitioner on a personal leadership journey. It constructs a functional examination of ideas around leadership. It explores the belief system which underpins leadership practice and it also explores to what extent the increased participation of women can lead to a qualitatively different type of leadership. Different models of leadership are explored to find the model which can best fit with the author’s perception of leadership. The Women’s Intercultural Leadership Model is discussed. This model conceptualises leadership as the envisioning of oneself and others as potential leaders. It seeks to promote that recognition whilst at the same time encouraging personal transformation. The promotion of a values based leadership is examined. The value of fairness is examined as an element of functional leadership. The extent to which increasing the number of women in leadership can lead to a qualitatively different type of leadership is explored. Drucker’s assertion that every practice rests on theory is used to unearth the underlying assumptions of this reflective practitioner doctorate. Kegan’s Theory of Adult Mental Development and Subject-Object separation is used to explicitly examine knowledge construction. Myers Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) and Assumption/Commitment/Behaviour/Outcome (ACBO) template are used to promote practice change.

Profiling side-channel attacks on cryptographic algorithms

Traditionally, attacks on cryptographic algorithms looked for mathematical weaknesses in the underlying structure of a cipher. Side-channel attacks, however, look to extract secret key information based on the leakage from the device on which the cipher is implemented, be it smart-card, microprocessor, dedicated hardware or personal computer. Attacks based on the power consumption, electromagnetic emanations and execution time have all been practically demonstrated on a range of devices to reveal partial secret-key information from which the full key can be reconstructed. The focus of this thesis is power analysis, more specifically a class of attacks known as profiling attacks. These attacks assume a potential attacker has access to, or can control, an identical device to that which is under attack, which allows him to profile the power consumption of operations or data flow during encryption. This assumes a stronger adversary than traditional non-profiling attacks such as differential or correlation power analysis, however the ability to model a device allows templates to be used post-profiling to extract key information from many different target devices using the power consumption of very few encryptions. This allows an adversary to overcome protocols intended to prevent secret key recovery by restricting the number of available traces. In this thesis a detailed investigation of template attacks is conducted, along with how the selection of various attack parameters practically affect the efficiency of the secret key recovery, as well as examining the underlying assumption of profiling attacks in that the power consumption of one device can be used to extract secret keys from another. Trace only attacks, where the corresponding plaintext or ciphertext data is unavailable, are then investigated against both symmetric and asymmetric algorithms with the goal of key recovery from a single trace. This allows an adversary to bypass many of the currently proposed countermeasures, particularly in the asymmetric domain. An investigation into machine-learning methods for side-channel analysis as an alternative to template or stochastic methods is also conducted, with support vector machines, logistic regression and neural networks investigated from a side-channel viewpoint. Both binary and multi-class classification attack scenarios are examined in order to explore the relative strengths of each algorithm. Finally these machine-learning based alternatives are empirically compared with template attacks, with their respective merits examined with regards to attack efficiency.

Assessing individual risk attitudes using field data from lottery games

We use information from the television game show with the highest guaranteed average payoff in the United States, Hoosier Millionaire, to analyze risktaking in a high-stakes experiment. We characterize gambling decisions under alternative assumptions about contestant behavior and preferences, and derive testable restrictions on individual risk attitudes based on this characterization. We then use an extensive sample of gambling decisions to estimate distributions of risk-aversion parameters consistent with the theoretical restrictions and revealed preferences. We find that although most contestants display risk-averse preferences, the extent of the risk aversion implied by our estimates varies substantially with the stakes involved in the different decisions.

Does higher hospital cost imply higher quality of care?

This study investigates whether higher input use per stay in the hospital (treatment intensity) and longer length of stay improve outcomes of care. We allow for endogeneity of intensity and length of stay by estimating a quasi-maximum-likelihood discrete factor model, where the distribution of the unmeasured variable is modeled using a discrete distribution. Data on elderly persons come from several waves of the National Long-Term Care Survey merged with Medicare claims data for 1984-1995 and the National Death Index. We find that higher intensity improves patient survival and some dimensions of functional status among those who survive.

Can exchange rates forecast commodity prices?

We show that "commodity currency" exchange rates have surprisingly robust power in predicting global commodity prices, both in-sample and out-of-sample, and against a variety of alternative benchmarks. This result is of particular interest to policy makers, given the lack of deep forward markets in many individual commodities, and broad aggregate commodity indices in particular. We also explore the reverse relationship (commodity prices forecasting exchange rates) but find it to be notably less robust. We offer a theoretical resolution, based on the fact that exchange rates are strongly forward-looking, whereas commodity price fluctuations are typically more sensitive to short-term demand imbalances. © 2010 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Neural mechanisms of context effects on face recognition: automatic binding and context shift decrements.

Although people do not normally try to remember associations between faces and physical contexts, these associations are established automatically, as indicated by the difficulty of recognizing familiar faces in different contexts ("butcher-on-the-bus" phenomenon). The present fMRI study investigated the automatic binding of faces and scenes. In the face-face (F-F) condition, faces were presented alone during both encoding and retrieval, whereas in the face/scene-face (FS-F) condition, they were presented overlaid on scenes during encoding but alone during retrieval (context change). Although participants were instructed to focus only on the faces during both encoding and retrieval, recognition performance was worse in the FS-F than in the F-F condition ("context shift decrement" [CSD]), confirming automatic face-scene binding during encoding. This binding was mediated by the hippocampus as indicated by greater subsequent memory effects (remembered > forgotten) in this region for the FS-F than the F-F condition. Scene memory was mediated by right parahippocampal cortex, which was reactivated during successful retrieval when the faces were associated with a scene during encoding (FS-F condition). Analyses using the CSD as a regressor yielded a clear hemispheric asymmetry in medial temporal lobe activity during encoding: Left hippocampal and parahippocampal activity was associated with a smaller CSD, indicating more flexible memory representations immune to context changes, whereas right hippocampal/rhinal activity was associated with a larger CSD, indicating less flexible representations sensitive to context change. Taken together, the results clarify the neural mechanisms of context effects on face recognition.

Development of hemispheric specialization for lexical pitch-accent in Japanese infants.

Infants' speech perception abilities change through the first year of life, from broad sensitivity to a wide range of speech contrasts to becoming more finely attuned to their native language. What remains unclear, however, is how this perceptual change relates to brain responses to native language contrasts in terms of the functional specialization of the left and right hemispheres. Here, to elucidate the developmental changes in functional lateralization accompanying this perceptual change, we conducted two experiments on Japanese infants using Japanese lexical pitch-accent, which changes word meanings with the pitch pattern within words. In the first behavioral experiment, using visual habituation, we confirmed that infants at both 4 and 10 months have sensitivities to the lexical pitch-accent pattern change embedded in disyllabic words. In the second experiment, near-infrared spectroscopy was used to measure cortical hemodynamic responses in the left and right hemispheres to the same lexical pitch-accent pattern changes and their pure tone counterparts. We found that brain responses to the pitch change within words differed between 4- and 10-month-old infants in terms of functional lateralization: Left hemisphere dominance for the perception of the pitch change embedded in words was seen only in the 10-month-olds. These results suggest that the perceptual change in Japanese lexical pitch-accent may be related to a shift in functional lateralization from bilateral to left hemisphere dominance.

Functional parcellation of attentional control regions of the brain.

Recently, a number of investigators have examined the neural loci of psychological processes enabling the control of visual spatial attention using cued-attention paradigms in combination with event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging. Findings from these studies have provided strong evidence for the involvement of a fronto-parietal network in attentional control. In the present study, we build upon this previous work to further investigate these attentional control systems. In particular, we employed additional controls for nonattentional sensory and interpretative aspects of cue processing to determine whether distinct regions in the fronto-parietal network are involved in different aspects of cue processing, such as cue-symbol interpretation and attentional orienting. In addition, we used shorter cue-target intervals that were closer to those used in the behavioral and event-related potential cueing literatures. Twenty participants performed a cued spatial attention task while brain activity was recorded with functional magnetic resonance imaging. We found functional specialization for different aspects of cue processing in the lateral and medial subregions of the frontal and parietal cortex. In particular, the medial subregions were more specific to the orienting of visual spatial attention, while the lateral subregions were associated with more general aspects of cue processing, such as cue-symbol interpretation. Additional cue-related effects included differential activations in midline frontal regions and pretarget enhancements in the thalamus and early visual cortical areas.