Whose statistical reasoning is improved by information about causal structure?

People often struggle when making Bayesian probabilistic estimates on the basis of competing sources of statistical evidence. Recently, Krynski and Tenenbaum (Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 136, 430–450, 2007) proposed that a causal Bayesian framework accounts for peoples’ errors in Bayesian reasoning and showed that, by clarifying the causal relations among the pieces of evidence, judgments on a classic statistical reasoning problem could be significantly improved. We aimed to understand whose statistical reasoning is facilitated by the causal structure intervention. In Experiment 1, although we observed causal facilitation effects overall, the effect was confined to participants high in numeracy. We did not find an overall facilitation effect in Experiment 2 but did replicate the earlier interaction between numerical ability and the presence or absence of causal content. This effect held when we controlled for general cognitive ability and thinking disposition. Our results suggest that clarifying causal structure facilitates Bayesian judgments, but only for participants with sufficient understanding of basic concepts in probability and statistics.

Antioxidant Activity of Sesame (Seasamum indicum L.) Cake Extract for the Stabilization of Olein Based Butter

This study investigated the effect of ethanolic sesame cake extract on oxidative stabilization of olein based butter. Fractionation of cream was performed by the dry fractionation technique at 10 °C, ethanolic sesame cake extract (SCE) was incorporated into olein butter at three different concentrations; 50, 100, 150 ppm (T1, T2, T3) and compared with a control. The total phenolic content of SCE was 1.72 (mg gallic acid equivalent g−1 dry weight). The HPLC characterization of ethanolic sesame cake revealed the presence of antioxidant substances viz. sesamol, sesamin and sesamolin in higher extents. The DPPH free radical scavenging activity of SCE was 83 % as compared to 64 and 75 % in BHA and BHT. Fractionation of milk fat at 10 °C significantly (p < 0.05) influenced the fatty acid profile of olein and stearin fractions from the parent milk fat. Concentration of oleic acid and linoleic acid in olein fraction was 29.62 and 33.46 % greater than the parent milk fat. The loss of C18:1 in 90 days stored control and T3 was 24.37 and 3.58 %, respectively, 58 % C18:2 was broken down into oxidation products over 8.55 % loss in T3. The peroxide value of control, T1, T2, BHT and T3 in the Schaal oven test was 8.59, 8.12, 5.34, 4.52 and 2.49 (mequiv O2/kg). The peroxide value and anisidine value of 3 months stored control and T3 were 1.21, 0.42 (mequiv O2/kg) and 27.25, 13.25, respectively. The concentration of conjugated dienes in T3 was substantially less than the control. The induction period of T3 was considerably higher than BHT with no difference in sensory characteristics (p > 0.05). Ethanolic SCE can be used for the long-term preservation of olein butter, with acceptable sensory characteristics.

miR-24 and miR-205 expression is dependent on HPV onco-protein expression in keratinocytes

A screen of microRNA (miRNA) expression following differentiation in human foreskin keratinocytes (HFKs) identified changes in several miRNAs, including miR-24 and miR-205. We investigated how expression of Human Papilloma Virus Type-16 (HPV16) onco-proteins E6 and E7 affected expression of miR-24 and miR-205 during proliferation and differentiation of HFKs. We show that the induction of both miR-24 and miR-205 observed during differentiation of HFKs is lost in HFKs expressing E6 and E7. We demonstrate that the effect on miR-205 is due to E7 activity, as miR-205 expression is dependent on pRb expression. Finally, we provide evidence that miR-24 effects in the cell may be due to targeting of cyclin dependent kinase inhibitor p27. In summary, these results indicate that expression of both miR-24 and miR-205 are impacted by E6 and/or E7 expression, which may be one mechanism by which HPV onco-proteins can disrupt the balance between proliferation and differentiation in keratinocytes.

Using entropy based mean shift filter and modified watershed transform for grain segmentation

Life science research aims to continuously improve the quality and standard of human life. One of the major challenges in this area is to maintain food safety and security. A number of image processing techniques have been used to investigate the quality of food products. In this paper,we propose a new algorithm to effectively segment connected grains so that each of them can be inspected in a later processing stage. One family of the existing segmentation methods is based on the idea of watersheding, and it has shown promising results in practice.However,due to the over-segmentation issue,this technique has experienced poor performance in various applications,such as inhomogeneous background and connected targets. To solve this problem,we present a combination of two classical techniques to handle this issue.In the first step,a mean shift filter is used to eliminate the inhomogeneous background, where entropy is used to be a converging criterion. Secondly,a color gradient algorithm is used in order to detect the most significant edges, and a marked watershed transform is applied to segment cluttered objects out of the previous processing stages. The proposed framework is capable of compromising among execution time, usability, efficiency and segmentation outcome in analyzing ring die pellets. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach is effectiveness and robust.

Comparison of methods used to calculate typical threshold values for potentially toxic elements in soil

The environmental quality of land can be assessed by calculating relevant threshold values, which differentiate between concentrations of elements resulting from geogenic and diffuse anthropogenic sources and concentrations generated by point sources of elements. A simple process allowing the calculation of these typical threshold values (TTVs) was applied across a region of highly complex geology (Northern Ireland) to six elements of interest; arsenic, chromium, copper, lead, nickel and vanadium. Three methods for identifying domains (areas where a readily identifiable factor can be shown to control the concentration of an element) were used: k-means cluster analysis, boxplots and empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDF). The ECDF method was most efficient at determining areas of both elevated and reduced concentrations and was used to identify domains in this investigation. Two statistical methods for calculating normal background concentrations (NBCs) and upper limits of geochemical baseline variation (ULBLs), currently used in conjunction with legislative regimes in the UK and Finland respectively, were applied within each domain. The NBC methodology was constructed to run within a specific legislative framework, and its use on this soil geochemical data set was influenced by the presence of skewed distributions and outliers. In contrast, the ULBL methodology was found to calculate more appropriate TTVs that were generally more conservative than the NBCs. TTVs indicate what a "typical" concentration of an element would be within a defined geographical area and should be considered alongside the risk that each of the elements pose in these areas to determine potential risk to receptors.

Modelling the response of fresh groundwater to climate and vegetation changes in coral islands

In coral islands, groundwater is a crucial freshwater resource for terrestrial life, including human water supply. Response of the freshwater lens to expected climate changes and subsequent vegetation alterations is quantified for Grande Glorieuse, a low-lying coral island in the Western Indian Ocean. Distributed models of recharge, evapotranspiration and saltwater phytotoxicity are integrated into a variable-density groundwater model to simulate the evolution of groundwater salinity. Model results are assessed against field observations including groundwater and geophysical measurements. Simulations show the major control currently exerted by the vegetation with regards to the lens morphology and the high sensitivity of the lens to climate alterations, impacting both quantity and salinity. Long-term changes in mean sea level and climatic conditions (rainfall and evapotranspiration) are predicted to be responsible for an average increase in salinity approaching 140 % (+8 kg m-3) when combined. In low-lying areas with high vegetation density, these changes top +300 % (+10 kg m-3). However, due to salinity increase and its phytotoxicity, it is shown that a corollary drop in vegetation activity can buffer the alteration of fresh groundwater. This illustrates the importance of accounting for vegetation dynamics to study groundwater in coral islands.

Non-governmental Organizational Accountability: Talking the Talk and Walking the Walk?

Concern for NGO accountability has been intensified in recent years, following the growth in the size of NGOs and their power to influence global politics and curb the excesses of globalization. Questions have been raised about where the sector embraces the same standards of accountability that it demands from government and business. The objective of this paper is to examine one aspect of NGO accountability, its discharge through annual reporting. Using Habermas’ (1984; 1987) theory of communicative action, and specifically its validity claims, the research investigates whether NGOs use their annual reporting process to account to the host societies in which they operate or steer stakeholder actions toward their own self-interests. The results of the study indicate that efforts by organizations to account are characterized by communicative action through the provision of truthful disclosures, generally appropriate to the discharge of accountability and in a manner intended to improve their understandability. At the same time, however, some organizations exhibit strategically oriented behaviors in which the disclosure content is guided by the opportunity to present organizations in a particular light and there appears a lack of rhetor authenticity. The latter findings cast doubt on the ethical inspiration of NGOs and the values they demand from business communities, and questions arise as to why such practices exist and what lessons can be learnt from them.

Do fertility transitions influence infant mortality declines? Evidence from early modern Germany

The timing and sequencing of fertility transitions and early-life mortality declines in historical Western societies indicate that reductions in sibship (number of siblings) may have contributed to improvements in infant health. Surprisingly, however, this demographic relationship has received little attention in empirical research. We outline the difficulties associated with establishing the effect of sibship on infant mortality and discuss the inherent bias associated with conventional empirical approaches. We offer a solution that permits an empirical test of this relationship while accounting for reverse causality and potential omitted variable bias. Our approach is illustrated by evaluating the causal impact of family size on infant mortality using genealogical data from 13 German parishes spanning the sixteenth, seventeenth, eighteenth, and nineteenth centuries. Overall, our findings do not support the hypothesis that declining fertility led to increased infant survival probabilities in historical populations.

An audit of drug shortages in a community pharmacy practice

Background: There are no firm data on drug shortages in Irish community pharmacy. This prospective observational study aimed to characterise the drug shortage problem in an Irish community pharmacy.
Aims: The primary aim was to determine numbers and durations of drug shortages. Secondary aims included comparing these shortages with Irish Pharmacy Union (IPU) drug shortage lists and determining the frequency with which notifications were received prior to shortages. Further secondary aims were to examine relationships between causes of drug shortages and drug costs and between causes of drug shortages and shortage durations.
Methods: The study took place in a community pharmacy in a Limerick City suburb between October 2012 and February 2013. Data were collected daily regarding drugs that were dispensed, but unavailable to purchase. Suppliers/manufacturers provided data on the reasons for shortages.
Results: 65/1,232 dispensed drugs (5.3 %) were in short supply over the study period. Median shortage duration was 13 days (interquartile range 4–32 days) and median cost was €8.10. Numbers of unavailable drugs by month varied from 13 to 38. Monthly IPU drug shortage lists identified between six and eight of these shortages depending on the month. Two notifications were received from suppliers/manufacturers regarding shortages. Parallel exports had the highest mean costs (mean €38.05) and manufacturing problems were associated with the longest durations (mean 57.44 days).
Conclusions: This study highlights the drug shortage problem in an Irish community pharmacy. We propose that enhanced communication between all stakeholders is the most worthwhile solution. Further studies are needed.

Habitat simplification increases the impact of a freshwater invasive fish

Biodiversity continues to decline at a range of spatial scales and there is an urgent requirement to understand how multiple drivers interact in causing such declines. Further, we require methodologies that can facilitate predictions of the effects of such drivers in the future. Habitat degradation and biological invasions are two of the most important threats to biodiversity and here we investigate their combined effects, both in terms of understanding and predicting impacts on native species. The predatory largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides is one of the World’s Worst Invaders, causing declines in native prey species, and its introduction often coincides with habitat simplification. We investigated the predatory functional response, as a measure of ecological impact, of juvenile largemouth bass in artificial vegetation over a range of habitat complexities (high, intermediate, low and zero). Prey, the female guppy Poecilia reticulata, were representative of native fish. As habitats became less complex, significantly more prey were consumed, since, even although attack rates declined, reduced handling times resulted in higher maximum feeding rates by bass. At all levels of habitat complexity, bass exhibited potentially population destabilising Type II functional responses, with no emergence of more stabilising Type III functional responses as often occurs in predator-prey relationships in complex habitats. Thus, habitat degradation and simplification potentially exacerbate the impact of this invasive species, but even highly complex habitats may ultimately not protect native species. The utilisation of functional responses under varying environmental contexts provides a method for the understanding and prediction of invasive species impacts.

Novel genetic susceptibility loci for diabetic end-stage renal disease identified through robust naive Bayes classification

Aims/hypothesis: Diabetic nephropathy is a major diabetic complication, and diabetes is the leading cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Family studies suggest a hereditary component for diabetic nephropathy. However, only a few genes have been associated with diabetic nephropathy or ESRD in diabetic patients. Our aim was to detect novel genetic variants associated with diabetic nephropathy and ESRD. Methods: We exploited a novel algorithm, ‘Bag of Naive Bayes’, whose marker selection strategy is complementary to that of conventional genome-wide association models based on univariate association tests. The analysis was performed on a genome-wide association study of 3,464 patients with type 1 diabetes from the Finnish Diabetic Nephropathy (FinnDiane) Study and subsequently replicated with 4,263 type 1 diabetes patients from the Steno Diabetes Centre, the All Ireland-Warren 3-Genetics of Kidneys in Diabetes UK collection (UK–Republic of Ireland) and the Genetics of Kidneys in Diabetes US Study (GoKinD US). Results: Five genetic loci (WNT4/ZBTB40-rs12137135, RGMA/MCTP2-rs17709344, MAPRE1P2-rs1670754, SEMA6D/SLC24A5-rs12917114 and SIK1-rs2838302) were associated with ESRD in the FinnDiane study. An association between ESRD and rs17709344, tagging the previously identified rs12437854 and located between the RGMA and MCTP2 genes, was replicated in independent case–control cohorts. rs12917114 near SEMA6D was associated with ESRD in the replication cohorts under the genotypic model (p < 0.05), and rs12137135 upstream of WNT4 was associated with ESRD in Steno. Conclusions/interpretation: This study supports the previously identified findings on the RGMA/MCTP2 region and suggests novel susceptibility loci for ESRD. This highlights the importance of applying complementary statistical methods to detect novel genetic variants in diabetic nephropathy and, in general, in complex diseases.

On the potential of significance-driven execution for energy-aware HPC

Dynamic Voltage and Frequency Scaling (DVFS) exhibits fundamental limitations as a method to reduce energy consumption in computing systems. In the HPC domain, where performance is of highest priority and codes are heavily optimized to minimize idle time, DVFS has limited opportunity to achieve substantial energy savings. This paper explores if operating processors Near the transistor Threshold Volt- age (NTV) is a better alternative to DVFS for break- ing the power wall in HPC. NTV presents challenges, since it compromises both performance and reliability to reduce power consumption. We present a first of its kind study of a significance-driven execution paradigm that selectively uses NTV and algorithmic error tolerance to reduce energy consumption in performance- constrained HPC environments. Using an iterative algorithm as a use case, we present an adaptive execution scheme that switches between near-threshold execution on many cores and above-threshold execution on one core, as the computational significance of iterations in the algorithm evolves over time. Using this scheme on state-of-the-art hardware, we demonstrate energy savings ranging between 35% to 67%, while compromising neither correctness nor performance.

Epitaxial ferroelectric Pb(Mg1/3Nb2/3)O3-PbTiO3 thin films on La0.7Sr0.3MnO3 bottom electrode

Epitaxial (001)-oriented 0.7Pb(Mg_0.33Nb_0.67)O₃-0.3PbTiO₃ (PMN-PT) thin films were deposited by pulsed laser deposition on vicinal SrTiO₃ (001) substrates using La_0.7Sr_0.3MnO₃ as bottom electrode. Detailed microstructural investigations of these films were carried out using X-ray diffraction (XRD), atomic force microscopy (AFM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Polarization-field hysteresis curves were measured at room temperature. Spontaneous polarization P s , remnant polarization P r and coercive voltage V c were found to be 25 μC/cm², 15 μC/cm² and 0.81 V, respectively. Field dependent dielectric constant measurements exhibited butterfly shaped curves, indicating the true ferroelectric nature of these films at room temperature. The dielectric constant and the dielectric loss at 100 kHz were found to be 238 and 0.14, respectively. The local piezoelectric properties of PMN-PT films were investigated by piezoelectric force microscopy and were found to exhibit a local piezoelectric coefficient of 7.8 pm/V.

Hydrogel-Forming Microneedle Arrays Can Be Effectively Inserted in Skin by Self-Application: A Pilot Study Centred on Pharmacist Intervention and a Patient Information Leaflet

Purpose: To investigate, for the first time, the influence of pharmacist intervention and the use of a patient information leaflet on self-application of hydrogel-forming microneedle arrays by human volunteers without the aid of an applicator device.
Methods: A patient information leaflet was drafted and pharmacist counselling strategy devised. Twenty human volunteers applied 11 × 11 arrays of 400 μm hydrogel-forming microneedle arrays to their own skin following the instructions provided. Skin barrier function disruption was assessed using transepidermal water loss measurements and optical coherence tomography and results compared to those obtained when more experienced researchers applied the microneedles to the volunteers or themselves.
Results: Volunteer self-application of the 400 μm microneedle design resulted in an approximately 30% increase in skin transepidermal water loss, which was not significantly different from that seen with self-application by the more experienced researchers or application to the volunteers. Use of optical coherence tomography showed that self-application of microneedles of the same density (400 μm, 600 μm and 900 μm) led to percentage penetration depths of approximately 75%, 70% and 60%, respectively, though the diameter of the micropores created remained quite constant at approximately 200 μm. Transepidermal water loss progressively increased with increasing height of the applied microneedles and this data, like that for penetration depth, was consistent, regardless of applicant.
Conclusion: We have shown that hydrogel-forming microneedle arrays can be successfully and reproducibly applied by human volunteers given appropriate instruction. If these outcomes were able to be extrapolated to the general patient population, then use of bespoke MN applicator devices may not be necessary, thus possibly enhancing patient compliance.

GWAS identifies an NAT2 acetylator status tag single nucleotide polymorphism to be a major locus for skin fluorescence

Skin fluorescence (SF) is a non-invasive marker of AGEs and is associated with the long-term complications of diabetes. SF increases with age and is also greater among individuals with diabetes. A familial correlation of SF suggests that genetics may play a role. We therefore performed parallel genome-wide association studies of SF in two cohorts.