A delta13C record of late Quaternary climate change from tropical peats in southern India

STABLE-ISOTOPE ratios of carbon in soils or lake sediments1-3 and of oxygen and hydrogen in peats4,5 have been found to reflect past moisture variations and hence to provide valuable palaeoclimate records. Previous applications of the technique to peat have been restricted to temperate regions, largely because tropical climate variations are less pronounced, making them harder to resolve. Here we present a deltaC-13 record spanning the past 20 kyr from peats in the Nilgiri hills, southern India. Because the site is at high altitude (>2,000 m above sea level), it is possible to resolve a clear climate signal. We observe the key climate shifts that are already known to have occurred during the last glacial maximum (18 kyr ago) and the subsequent deglaciation. In addition, we observe an arid phase from 6 to 3.5 kyr ago, and a short, wet phase about 600 years ago. The latter appears to correspond to the Mediaeval Warm Period, which previously was believed to be confined to Europe and North America6,7. Our results therefore suggest that this event may have extended over the entire Northern Hemisphere.

A monolithic strategy for fluid-structure interaction problems

In this work, we present a new monolithic strategy for solving fluid-structure interaction problems involving incompressible fluids, within the context of the finite element method. This strategy, similar to the continuum dynamics, conserves certain properties, and thus provides a rational basis for the design of the time-stepping strategy; detailed proofs of the conservation of these properties are provided. The proposed algorithm works with displacement and velocity variables for the structure and fluid, respectively, and introduces no new variables to enforce velocity or traction continuity. Any existing structural dynamics algorithm can be used without change in the proposed method. Use of the exact tangent stiffness matrix ensures that the algorithm converges quadratically within each time step. An analytical solution is presented for one of the benchmark problems used in the literature, namely, the piston problem. A number of benchmark problems including problems involving free surfaces such as sloshing and the breaking dam problem are used to demonstrate the good performance of the proposed method. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Dependence of the large-scale vortex instability on latitude, stratification and domain size

In an earlier study, we reported on the excitation of large-scale vortices in Cartesian hydrodynamical convection models subject to rapid enough rotation. In that study, the conditions for the onset of the instability were investigated in terms of the Reynolds (Re) and Coriolis (Co) numbers in models located at the stellar North pole. In this study, we extend our investigation to varying domain sizes, increasing stratification, and place the box at different latitudes. The effect of the increasing box size is to increase the sizes of the generated structures, so that the principal vortex always fills roughly half of the computational domain. The instability becomes stronger in the sense that the temperature anomaly and change in the radial velocity are observed to be enhanced. The model with the smallest box size is found to be stable against the instability, suggesting that a sufficient scale separation between the convective eddies and the scale of the domain is required for the instability to work. The instability can be seen upto the colatitude of 30 degrees, above which value the flow becomes dominated by other types of mean flows. The instability can also be seen in a model with larger stratification. Unlike the weakly stratified cases, the temperature anomaly caused by the vortex structures is seen to depend on depth.

Evolution in the time series of vortex velocity fluctuations across different regimes of vortex flow

Investigations of vortex velocity fluctuation in time domain have revealed a presence of low frequency velocity fluctuations which evolve with the different driven phases of the vortex state in a single crystal of 2H-NbSe2. The observation of velocity fluctuations with a characteristic low frequency is associated with the onset of nonlinear nature of vortex flow deep in the driven elastic vortex state. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of climate change on Indian forests: a dynamic vegetation modeling approach

We make an assessment of the impact of projected climate change on forest ecosystems in India. This assessment is based on climate projections of the Regional Climate Model of the Hadley Centre (HadRM3) and the dynamic global vegetation model IBIS for A2 and B2 scenarios. According to the model projections, 39% of forest grids are likely to undergo vegetation type change under the A2 scenario and 34% under the B2 scenario by the end of this century. However, in many forest dominant states such as Chattisgarh, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh up to 73%, 67% and 62% of forested grids are projected to undergo change. Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is projected to increase by 68.8% and 51.2% under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively, and soil organic carbon (SOC) by 37.5% for A2 and 30.2% for B2 scenario. Based on the dynamic global vegetation modeling, we present a forest vulnerability index for India which is based on the observed datasets of forest density, forest biodiversity as well as model predicted vegetation type shift estimates for forested grids. The vulnerability index suggests that upper Himalayas, northern and central parts of Western Ghats and parts of central India are most vulnerable to projected impacts of climate change, while Northeastern forests are more resilient. Thus our study points to the need for developing and implementing adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability of forests to projected climate change.

Climate change and forests in India: adaptation opportunities and challenges

Climate change is projected to lead to shift of forest types leading to irreversible damage to forests by rendering several species extinct and potentially affecting the livelihoods of local communities and the economy. Approximately 47% and 42% of tropical dry deciduous grids are projected to undergo shifts under A2 and B2 SRES scenarios respectively, as opposed to less than 16% grids comprising of tropical wet evergreen forests. Similarly, the tropical thorny scrub forest is projected to undergo shifts in majority of forested grids under A2 (more than 80%) as well as B2 scenarios (50% of grids). Thus the forest managers and policymakers need to adapt to the ecological as well as the socio-economic impacts of climate change. This requires formulation of effective forest management policies and practices, incorporating climate concerns into long-term forest policy and management plans. India has formulated a large number of innovative and progressive forest policies but a mechanism to ensure effective implementation of these policies is needed. Additional policies and practices may be needed to address the impacts of climate change. This paper discusses an approach and steps involved in the development of an adaptation framework as well as policies, strategies and practices needed for mainstreaming adaptation to cope with projected climate change. Further, the existing barriers which may affect proactive adaptation planning given the scale, accuracy and uncertainty associated with assessing climate change impacts are presented.

Forest policies and programs affecting vulnerability and adaptation to climate change

Due to large scale afforestation programs and forest conservation legislations, India's total forest area seems to have stabilized or even increased. In spite of such efforts, forest fragmentation and degradation continues, with forests being subject to increased pressure due to anthropogenic factors. Such fragmentation and degradation is leading to the forest cover to change from very dense to moderately dense and open forest and 253 km(2) of very dense forest has been converted to moderately dense forest, open forest, scrub and non-forest (during 2005-2007). Similarly, there has been a degradation of 4,120 km(2) of moderately dense forest to open forest, scrub and non-forest resulting in a net loss of 936 km(2) of moderately dense forest. Additionally, 4,335 km(2) of open forest have degraded to scrub and non-forest. Coupled with pressure due to anthropogenic factors, climate change is likely to be an added stress on forests. Forest sector programs and policies are major factors that determine the status of forests and potentially resilience to projected impacts of climate change. An attempt is made to review the forest policies and programs and their implications for the status of forests and for vulnerability of forests to projected climate change. The study concludes that forest conservation and development policies and programs need to be oriented to incorporate climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation.

Impact of climate change at species level: a case study of teak in India

In this study, we model the long-term effect of climate change on commercially important teak (Tectona grandis) and its productivity in India. This modelling assessment is based on climate projections of the regional climate model of the Hadley Center (HadRM3) and the dynamic vegetation model, IBIS. According to the model projections, 30% of teak grids in India are vulnerable to climate change under both A2 and B2 SRES scenarios because the future climate may not be optimal for teak at these grids. However, the net primary productivity and biomass are expected to increase because of elevated levels of CO2. Given these directions of likely impacts, it is crucial to further investigate the climate change impacts on teak and incorporate such findings into long-term teak plantation programs. This study also demonstrates the feasibility and limitations of assessing the impact of projected climate change at the species level in the tropics.

Implications of climate change on mitigation potential estimates for forest sector in India

Climate change is projected to impact forest ecosystems, including biodiversity and Net Primary Productivity (NPP). National level carbon forest sector mitigation potential estimates are available for India; however impacts of projected climate change are not included in the mitigation potential estimates. Change in NPP (in gC/m(2)/yr) is taken to represent the impacts of climate change. Long term impacts of climate change (2085) on the NPP of Indian forests are available; however no such regional estimates are available for short and medium terms. The present study based on GCM climatology scenarios projects the short, medium and long term impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems especially on NPP using BIOME4 vegetation model. We estimate that under A2 scenario by the year 2030 the NPP changes by (-5) to 40% across different agro-ecological zones (AEZ). By 2050 it increases by 15% to 59% and by 2070 it increases by 34 to 84%. However, under B2 scenario it increases only by 3 to 25%, 3.5 to 34% and (-2.5) to 38% respectively, in the same time periods. The cumulative mitigation potential is estimated to increase by up to 21% (by nearly 1 GtC) under A2 scenario between the years 2008 and 2108, whereas, under B2 the mitigation potential increases only by 14% (646 MtC). However, cumulative mitigation potential estimates obtained from IBIS-a dynamic global vegetation model suggest much smaller gains, where mitigation potential increases by only 6% and 5% during the period 2008 to 2108.

A macroeconomic analysis of adaptation to climate change impacts on forests in India

We examine the potential for adaptation to climate change in Indian forests, and derive the macroeconomic implications of forest impacts and adaptation in India. The study is conducted by integrating results from the dynamic global vegetation model IBIS and the computable general equilibrium model GRACE-IN, which estimates macroeconomic implications for six zones of India. By comparing a reference scenario without climate change with a climate impact scenario based on the IPCC A2-scenario, we find major variations in the pattern of change across zones. Biomass stock increases in all zones but the Central zone. The increase in biomass growth is smaller, and declines in one more zone, South zone, despite higher stock. In the four zones with increases in biomass growth, harvest increases by only approximately 1/3 of the change in biomass growth. This is due to two market effects of increased biomass growth. One is that an increase in biomass growth encourages more harvest given other things being equal. The other is that more harvest leads to higher supply of timber, which lowers market prices. As a result, also the rent on forested land decreases. The lower prices and rent discourage more harvest even though they may induce higher demand, which increases the pressure on harvest. In a less perfect world than the model describes these two effects may contribute to an increase in the risk of deforestation because of higher biomass growth. Furthermore, higher harvest demands more labor and capital input in the forestry sector. Given total supply of labor and capital, this increases the cost of production in all the other sectors, although very little indeed. Forestry dependent communities with declining biomass growth may, however, experience local unemployment as a result.

Integrated modelling approaches to analysis of climate change impacts on forests and forest management

This paper reviews integrated economic and ecological models that address impacts and adaptation to climate change in the forest sector. Early economic model studies considered forests as one out of many possible impacts of climate change, while ecological model studies tended to limit the economic impacts to fixed price-assumptions. More recent studies include broader representations of both systems, but there are still few studies which can be regarded fully integrated. Full integration of ecological and economic models is needed to address forest management under climate change appropriately. The conclusion so far is that there are vast uncertainties about how climate change affects forests. This is partly due to the limited knowledge about the global implications of the social and economical adaptation to the effects of climate change on forests.

Support vector machine for evaluating seismic-liquefaction potential using shear wave velocity

The use of the shear wave velocity data as a field index for evaluating the liquefaction potential of sands is receiving increased attention because both shear wave velocity and liquefaction resistance are similarly influenced by many of the same factors such as void ratio, state of stress, stress history and geologic age. In this paper, the potential of support vector machine (SVM) based classification approach has been used to assess the liquefaction potential from actual shear wave velocity data. In this approach, an approximate implementation of a structural risk minimization (SRM) induction principle is done, which aims at minimizing a bound on the generalization error of a model rather than minimizing only the mean square error over the data set. Here SVM has been used as a classification tool to predict liquefaction potential of a soil based on shear wave velocity. The dataset consists the information of soil characteristics such as effective vertical stress (sigma'(v0)), soil type, shear wave velocity (V-s) and earthquake parameters such as peak horizontal acceleration (a(max)) and earthquake magnitude (M). Out of the available 186 datasets, 130 are considered for training and remaining 56 are used for testing the model. The study indicated that SVM can successfully model the complex relationship between seismic parameters, soil parameters and the liquefaction potential. In the model based on soil characteristics, the input parameters used are sigma'(v0), soil type. V-s, a(max) and M. In the other model based on shear wave velocity alone uses V-s, a(max) and M as input parameters. In this paper, it has been demonstrated that Vs alone can be used to predict the liquefaction potential of a soil using a support vector machine model. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.