Impact of variable atmospheric and oceanic form drag on simulations of Arctic sea ice

Over Arctic sea ice, pressure ridges and floe andmelt pond edges all introduce discrete obstructions to the flow of air or water past the ice and are a source of form drag. In current climate models form drag is only accounted for by tuning the air–ice and ice–ocean drag coefficients, that is, by effectively altering the roughness length in a surface drag parameterization. The existing approach of the skin drag parameter tuning is poorly constrained by observations and fails to describe correctly the physics associated with the air–ice and ocean–ice drag. Here, the authors combine recent theoretical developments to deduce the total neutral form drag coefficients from properties of the ice cover such as ice concentration, vertical extent and area of the ridges, freeboard and floe draft, and the size of floes and melt ponds. The drag coefficients are incorporated into the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) and show the influence of the new drag parameterization on the motion and state of the ice cover, with the most noticeable being a depletion of sea ice over the west boundary of the Arctic Ocean and over the Beaufort Sea. The new parameterization allows the drag coefficients to be coupled to the sea ice state and therefore to evolve spatially and temporally. It is found that the range of values predicted for the drag coefficients agree with the range of values measured in several regions of the Arctic. Finally, the implications of the new form drag formulation for the spinup or spindown of the Arctic Ocean are discussed.

PDFOS: PDF estimation based over-sampling for imbalanced two-class problems

This contribution proposes a novel probability density function (PDF) estimation based over-sampling (PDFOS) approach for two-class imbalanced classification problems. The classical Parzen-window kernel function is adopted to estimate the PDF of the positive class. Then according to the estimated PDF, synthetic instances are generated as the additional training data. The essential concept is to re-balance the class distribution of the original imbalanced data set under the principle that synthetic data sample follows the same statistical properties. Based on the over-sampled training data, the radial basis function (RBF) classifier is constructed by applying the orthogonal forward selection procedure, in which the classifier’s structure and the parameters of RBF kernels are determined using a particle swarm optimisation algorithm based on the criterion of minimising the leave-one-out misclassification rate. The effectiveness of the proposed PDFOS approach is demonstrated by the empirical study on several imbalanced data sets.

Salinity changes in the world ocean since 1950 in relation to changing surface freshwater fluxes

Global hydrographic and air–sea freshwater flux datasets are used to investigate ocean salinity changes over 1950–2010 in relation to surface freshwater flux. On multi-decadal timescales, surface salinity increases (decreases) in evaporation (precipitation) dominated regions, the Atlantic–Pacific salinity contrast increases, and the upper thermocline salinity maximum increases while the salinity minimum of intermediate waters decreases. Potential trends in E–P are examined for 1950–2010 (using two reanalyses) and 1979–2010 (using four reanalyses and two blended products). Large differences in the 1950–2010 E–P trend patterns are evident in several regions, particularly the North Atlantic. For 1979–2010 some coherency in the spatial change patterns is evident but there is still a large spread in trend magnitude and sign between the six E–P products. However, a robust pattern of increased E–P in the southern hemisphere subtropical gyres is seen in all products. There is also some evidence in the tropical Pacific for a link between the spatial change patterns of salinity and E–P associated with ENSO. The water cycle amplification rate over specific regions is subsequently inferred from the observed 3-D salinity change field using a salt conservation equation in variable isopycnal volumes, implicitly accounting for the migration of isopycnal surfaces. Inferred global changes of E–P over 1950–2010 amount to an increase of 1 ± 0.6 % in net evaporation across the subtropics and an increase of 4.2 ± 2 % in net precipitation across subpolar latitudes. Amplification rates are approximately doubled over 1979–2010, consistent with accelerated broad-scale warming but also coincident with much improved salinity sampling over the latter period.

Improvements in Aerosol Optical Depth Estimation Using Multiangle CHRIS/PROBA Images

A method has been developed to estimate aerosol optical depth (AOD) over land surfaces using high spatial resolution, hyperspectral, and multiangle Compact High Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (CHRIS)/Project for On Board Autonomy (PROBA) images. The CHRIS instrument is mounted aboard the PROBA satellite and provides up to 62 bands. The PROBA satellite allows pointing to obtain imagery from five different view angles within a short time interval. The method uses inversion of a coupled surface/atmosphere radiative transfer model and includes a general physical model of angular surface reflectance. An iterative process is used to determine the optimum value providing the best fit of the corrected reflectance values for a number of view angles and wavelengths with those provided by the physical model. This method has previously been demonstrated on data from the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer and is extended here to the spectral and angular sampling of CHRIS/PROBA. The values obtained from these observations are validated using ground-based sun-photometer measurements. Results from 22 image sets show an rms error of 0.11 in AOD at 550 nm, which is reduced to 0.06 after an automatic screening procedure.

Characterizing sampling bias in the trace gas climatologies of the SPARC Data Initiative

Monthly zonal mean climatologies of atmospheric measurements from satellite instruments can have biases due to the nonuniform sampling of the atmosphere by the instruments. We characterize potential sampling biases in stratospheric trace gas climatologies of the Stratospheric Processes and Their Role in Climate (SPARC) Data Initiative using chemical fields from a chemistry climate model simulation and sampling patterns from 16 satellite-borne instruments. The exercise is performed for the long-lived stratospheric trace gases O3 and H2O. Monthly sampling biases for O3 exceed 10% for many instruments in the high-latitude stratosphere and in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere, while annual mean sampling biases reach values of up to 20% in the same regions for some instruments. Sampling biases for H2O are generally smaller than for O3, although still notable in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere and Southern Hemisphere high latitudes. The most important mechanism leading to monthly sampling bias is nonuniform temporal sampling, i.e., the fact that for many instruments, monthly means are produced from measurements which span less than the full month in question. Similarly, annual mean sampling biases are well explained by nonuniformity in the month-to-month sampling by different instruments. Nonuniform sampling in latitude and longitude are shown to also lead to nonnegligible sampling biases, which are most relevant for climatologies which are otherwise free of biases due to nonuniform temporal sampling.

Gaussian anamorphosis in the analysis step of the EnKF: a joint state-variable/observation approach

The analysis step of the (ensemble) Kalman filter is optimal when (1) the distribution of the background is Gaussian, (2) state variables and observations are related via a linear operator, and (3) the observational error is of additive nature and has Gaussian distribution. When these conditions are largely violated, a pre-processing step known as Gaussian anamorphosis (GA) can be applied. The objective of this procedure is to obtain state variables and observations that better fulfil the Gaussianity conditions in some sense. In this work we analyse GA from a joint perspective, paying attention to the effects of transformations in the joint state variable/observation space. First, we study transformations for state variables and observations that are independent from each other. Then, we introduce a targeted joint transformation with the objective to obtain joint Gaussianity in the transformed space. We focus primarily in the univariate case, and briefly comment on the multivariate one. A key point of this paper is that, when (1)-(3) are violated, using the analysis step of the EnKF will not recover the exact posterior density in spite of any transformations one may perform. These transformations, however, provide approximations of different quality to the Bayesian solution of the problem. Using an example in which the Bayesian posterior can be analytically computed, we assess the quality of the analysis distributions generated after applying the EnKF analysis step in conjunction with different GA options. The value of the targeted joint transformation is particularly clear for the case when the prior is Gaussian, the marginal density for the observations is close to Gaussian, and the likelihood is a Gaussian mixture.

Urban integrated meteorological observations: practice and experience in Shanghai, China

Observations of atmospheric conditions and processes in citiesare fundamental to understanding the interactions between the urban surface and weather/climate, improving the performance of urban weather, air quality and climate models, and providing key information for city end-users (e.g. decision-makers, stakeholders, public). In this paper, Shanghai's urban integrated meteorological observation network (SUIMON) and some examples of intended applications are introduced. Its characteristics include being: multi- purpose (e.g. forecast, research, service), multi-function (high impact weather, city climate, special end-users), multi-scale (e.g. macro/meso-, urban-, neighborhood, street canyon), multi-variable (e.g. thermal, dynamic, chemical, bio-meteorological, ecological), and multi- platform (e.g. radar, wind profiler, ground-based, satellite based, in-situ observation/ sampling). Underlying SUIMON is a data management system to facilitate exchange of data and information. The overall aim of the network is to improve coordination strategies and instruments; to identify data gaps based on science and user driven requirements; and to intelligently combine observations from a variety of platforms by using a data assimilation system that is tuned to produce the best estimate of the current state of the urban atmosphere.

Dominant components of the Thoroughbred metabolome characterised by 1H‐NMR spectroscopy: a metabolite atlas of common biofluids

Summary Reasons for performing study: Metabonomics is emerging as a powerful tool for disease screening and investigating mammalian metabolism. This study aims to create a metabolic framework by producing a preliminary reference guide for the normal equine metabolic milieu. Objectives: To metabolically profile plasma, urine and faecal water from healthy racehorses using high resolution 1H-NMR spectroscopy and to provide a list of dominant metabolites present in each biofluid for the benefit of future research in this area. Study design: This study was performed using seven Thoroughbreds in race training at a single time-point. Urine and faecal samples were collected non-invasively and plasma was obtained from samples taken for routine clinical chemistry purposes. Methods: Biofluids were analysed using 1H-NMR spectroscopy. Metabolite assignment was achieved via a range of 1D and 2D experiments. Results: A total of 102 metabolites were assigned across the three biological matrices. A core metabonome of 14 metabolites was ubiquitous across all biofluids. All biological matrices provided a unique window on different aspects of systematic metabolism. Urine was the most populated metabolite matrix with 65 identified metabolites, 39 of which were unique to this biological compartment. A number of these were related to gut microbial host co-metabolism. Faecal samples were the most metabolically variable between animals; acetate was responsible for the majority (28%) of this variation. Short chain fatty acids were the predominant features identified within this biofluid by 1H-NMR spectroscopy. Conclusions: Metabonomics provides a platform for investigating complex and dynamic interactions between the host and its consortium of gut microbes and has the potential to uncover markers for health and disease in a variety of biofluids. Inherent variation in faecal extracts along with the relative abundance of microbial-mammalian metabolites in urine and invasive nature of plasma sampling, infers that urine is the most appropriate biofluid for the purposes of metabonomic analysis.

Coordinated Cluster and ground-based instrument observations of transient changes in the magnetopause boundary layer during an interval of predominantly northward IMF: relation to reconnection pulses and FTE signatures

We study a series of transient entries into the low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL) of all four Cluster spacecraft during an outbound pass through the mid-afternoon magnetopause ([X(GSM), Y(GSM), Z(GSM)] approximate to [2, 7, 9] R(E)). The events take place during an interval of northward IMF, as seen in the data from the ACE satellite and lagged by a propagation delay of 75 min that is well-defined by two separate studies: (1) the magnetospheric variations prior to the northward turning (Lockwood et al., 2001, this issue) and (2) the field clock angle seen by Cluster after it had emerged into the magnetosheath (Opgenoorth et al., 2001, this issue). With an additional lag of 16.5 min, the transient LLBL events cor-relate well with swings of the IMF clock angle (in GSM) to near 90degrees. Most of this additional lag is explained by ground-based observations, which reveal signatures of transient reconnection in the pre-noon sector that then take 10-15 min to propagate eastward to 15 MLT, where they are observed by Cluster. The eastward phase speed of these signatures agrees very well with the motion deduced by the cross-correlation of the signatures seen on the four Cluster spacecraft. The evidence that these events are reconnection pulses includes: transient erosion of the noon 630 nm (cusp/cleft) aurora to lower latitudes; transient and travelling enhancements of the flow into the polar cap, imaged by the AMIE technique; and poleward-moving events moving into the polar cap, seen by the EISCAT Svalbard Radar (ESR). A pass of the DMSP-F15 satellite reveals that the open field lines near noon have been opened for some time: the more recently opened field lines were found closer to dusk where the flow transient and the poleward-moving event intersected the satellite pass. The events at Cluster have ion and electron characteristics predicted and observed by Lockwood and Hapgood (1998) for a Flux Transfer Event (FTE), with allowance for magnetospheric ion reflection at Alfvenic disturbances in the magnetopause reconnection layer. Like FTEs, the events are about 1 R(E) in their direction of motion and show a rise in the magnetic field strength, but unlike FTEs, in general, they show no pressure excess in their core and hence, no characteristic bipolar signature in the boundary-normal component. However, most of the events were observed when the magnetic field was southward, i.e. on the edge of the interior magnetic cusp, or when the field was parallel to the magnetic equatorial plane. Only when the satellite begins to emerge from the exterior boundary (when the field was northward), do the events start to show a pressure excess in their core and the consequent bipolar signature. We identify the events as the first observations of FTEs at middle altitudes.

A dynamic mechanistic model of lactic acid metabolism in the rumen

Current feed evaluation systems for ruminants are too imprecise to describe diets in terms of their acidosis risk. The dynamic mechanistic model described herein arises from the integration of a lactic acid (La) metabolism module into an extant model of whole-rumen function. The model was evaluated using published data from cows and sheep fed a range of diets or infused with various doses of La. The model performed well in simulating peak rumen La concentrations (coefficient of determination = 0.96; root mean square prediction error = 16.96% of observed mean), although frequency of sampling for the published data prevented a comprehensive comparison of prediction of time to peak La accumulation. The model showed a tendency for increased La accumulation following feeding of diets rich in nonstructural carbohydrates, although less-soluble starch sources such as corn tended to limit rumen La concentration. Simulated La absorption from the rumen remained low throughout the feeding cycle. The competition between bacteria and protozoa for rumen La suggests a variable contribution of protozoa to total La utilization. However, the model was unable to simulate the effects of defaunation on rumen La metabolism, indicating a need for a more detailed description of protozoal metabolism. The model could form the basis of a feed evaluation system with regard to rumen La metabolism.

Palaeoenvironmental changes during the Valanginian: new insights from variations in phosphorus contents and bulk- and clay mineralogies in the western Tethys

Paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic changes during the Valanginian carbon isotopic excursion (CIE) have been investigated in the western Tethys. For this purpose, bulk-rock and clay mineralogies, as well as phosphorus (P) contents were evaluated in a selection of five sections located in the Vocontian Basin (Angles, SE France; Alvier, E Switzerland; Malleval, E France), and the Lombardian Basin (Capriolo, N Italy; Breggia, S Switzerland). Within the CIE interval, bulk-rock and clay mineralogies are inferred to reflect mostly climate change. The onset of the CIE (Busnardoites campylotoxus ammonite Zone) is characterized by higher detrital index (DI: sum of the detrital minerals divided by calcite contents) values and the presence of kaolinite in their clay-mineral assemblages. In the late Valanginian (from the Saynoceras verrucosum Zone up to the end of the Valanginian), the samples show relatively variable DI and lower values or the absence of kaolinite. The variation in the mineralogical composition is interpreted as reflecting a change from a climate characterized by optimal weathering conditions associated with an increase in terrigenous input on the southern European margin during the CIE towards an overall unstable climate associated with drier conditions in the late Valanginian. This is contrasted by a dissymmetry (proximal vs distal) along the studied transect, the northern Tethyan margin being more sensitive to changes in continental input compared to the distal environments. P accumulation rates (PAR) present similar features. In the Vocontian basin, P content variations are associated with changes in terrigenous influx, whereas in the Lombardian basin (i.e. Capriolo and Breggia), PAR values are less well correlated. This is mainly because the deeper part of the Tethys was less sensitive to changes in continental inputs. The onset of the CIE (top of the B. campylotoxus Zone) records a general increase in PAR suggesting an increase in marine nutrient levels. This is linked to higher continental weathering rates and the enhanced influx of nutrients into the ocean. In the period corresponding to the shift itself, P contents show a dissymmetry between the Vocontian and Lombardian basins (proximal vs distal). For the sections of Malleval, Alvier and Angles, a decrease in P concentrations associated to a decrease in detrital input is observed. In Capriolo and Breggia, PAR show maximum values during the plateau, indicating a more complex interaction between different P sources. The time interval including the top of S. verrucosum Zone up to the end of the Valanginian is characterized by variable PAR values, suggesting variable nutrient influxes. These changes are in agreement with an evolution towards seasonally contrasted conditions in the late Valanginian.

Two fast radiative transfer methods to improve the temporal sampling of clouds in numerical weather prediction and climate models

The high computational cost of calculating the radiative heating rates in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models requires that calculations are made infrequently, leading to poor sampling of the fast-changing cloud field and a poor representation of the feedback that would occur. This paper presents two related schemes for improving the temporal sampling of the cloud field. Firstly, the ‘split time-stepping’ scheme takes advantage of the independent nature of the monochromatic calculations of the ‘correlated-k’ method to split the calculation into gaseous absorption terms that are highly dependent on changes in cloud (the optically thin terms) and those that are not (optically thick). The small number of optically thin terms can then be calculated more often to capture changes in the grey absorption and scattering associated with cloud droplets and ice crystals. Secondly, the ‘incremental time-stepping’ scheme uses a simple radiative transfer calculation using only one or two monochromatic calculations representing the optically thin part of the atmospheric spectrum. These are found to be sufficient to represent the heating rate increments caused by changes in the cloud field, which can then be added to the last full calculation of the radiation code. We test these schemes in an operational forecast model configuration and find a significant improvement is achieved, for a small computational cost, over the current scheme employed at the Met Office. The ‘incremental time-stepping’ scheme is recommended for operational use, along with a new scheme to correct the surface fluxes for the change in solar zenith angle between radiation calculations.

Using high-frequency water quality data to assess sampling strategies for the EU Water Framework Directive

The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires that the ecological and chemical status of water bodies in Europe should be assessed, and action taken where possible to ensure that at least "good" quality is attained in each case by 2015. This paper is concerned with the accuracy and precision with which chemical status in rivers can be measured given certain sampling strategies, and how this can be improved. High-frequency (hourly) chemical data from four rivers in southern England were subsampled to simulate different sampling strategies for four parameters used for WFD classification: dissolved phosphorus, dissolved oxygen, pH and water temperature. These data sub-sets were then used to calculate the WFD classification for each site. Monthly sampling was less precise than weekly sampling, but the effect on WFD classification depended on the closeness of the range of concentrations to the class boundaries. In some cases, monthly sampling for a year could result in the same water body being assigned to three or four of the WFD classes with 95% confidence, due to random sampling effects, whereas with weekly sampling this was one or two classes for the same cases. In the most extreme case, the same water body could have been assigned to any of the five WFD quality classes. Weekly sampling considerably reduces the uncertainties compared to monthly sampling. The width of the weekly sampled confidence intervals was about 33% that of the monthly for P species and pH, about 50% for dissolved oxygen, and about 67% for water temperature. For water temperature, which is assessed as the 98th percentile in the UK, monthly sampling biases the mean downwards by about 1 °C compared to the true value, due to problems of assessing high percentiles with limited data. Low-frequency measurements will generally be unsuitable for assessing standards expressed as high percentiles. Confining sampling to the working week compared to all 7 days made little difference, but a modest improvement in precision could be obtained by sampling at the same time of day within a 3 h time window, and this is recommended. For parameters with a strong diel variation, such as dissolved oxygen, the value obtained, and thus possibly the WFD classification, can depend markedly on when in the cycle the sample was taken. Specifying this in the sampling regime would be a straightforward way to improve precision, but there needs to be agreement about how best to characterise risk in different types of river. These results suggest that in some cases it will be difficult to assign accurate WFD chemical classes or to detect likely trends using current sampling regimes, even for these largely groundwater-fed rivers. A more critical approach to sampling is needed to ensure that management actions are appropriate and supported by data.